100 rebuy bubble hand
 

villain's very first hand at the table and i don't recall playing with him before. we are both top 5-10 stacks with ~30 left and 27 paying. i have him covered but not by much. i'll be crippled if we play for stacks and i lose.



PokerStars No-Limit Hold'em Tourney, Big Blind is t1600 (8 handed) Hand History Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com (Format: 2+2 Forums)

SB (t63397)
BB (t45349)
UTG (t30571)
UTG+1 (t24415)
MP1 (t16902)
Hero (t69765)
CO (t59745)
Button (t57233)

Preflop: Hero is MP2 with Q[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], K[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img].
<font color="#666666">3 folds</font>, <font color="#CC3333">Hero raises to t4200</font>, CO calls t4200, <font color="#666666">3 folds</font>.

Flop: (t8925) J[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], 5[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], K[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
<font color="#CC3333">Hero bets t6400</font>, CO calls t6400.

Turn: (t21725) A[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>



what do you guys like on the turn here?

if you are leading out how much are you betting?

if you check do you plan on check/calling or check/raising? (i'd put check/fold in here but lets get real we have a royal draw, weeeee)

if you check/call, what is your plan? (for a blank river, a spade, a ten?)

if it goes check/check, what is your plan for the river(blank, spade, ten)

if you check/raise are you shoving it all in? or are you making a smaller raise that looks like you may want value + leaves you with some chips to close your eyes and shove in on river

thanks for your input
gboro

Re: 100 rebuy bubble hand
 

Super easy c/c.

[ QUOTE ]
if you check/call, what is your plan? (for a blank turn, a spade, a ten?)

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Don't you mean "for a blank river"?

If you check/call 14kish, pot will be 50k w/ effective stacks of 35k, prob c/f a blank, shove if you hit your T/spade.

If it goes check/check, very unlikely you get any more money out of him unless it's Ts and he has a Q. Just shove AI if you hit, cause he doesn't have like any holdings he would be bluffing with on river if you check. If it's a blank, prob c/f. But I think it often goes check/check on a blank river.

Btw, what's your line if he raises your flop bet to 18k?

Re: 100 rebuy bubble hand
 

I also check call this turn. An unknown villain in the 100r is pretty rare no? If hes a known player we can probably give him a fairly small range but since 100r we figure better than ave.

On river i likely c/c a K/Q and lead a T/spade, possibly with a shove. Depending on the turn/river action i might fold to a river Q...sometimes.

If we c/call turn and river is total blank and we check and he fires strong i probably release.

If turn is check/check and river is a blank i'm undecided between check call or blocking bet, i'm not sure which is better.

Re: 100 rebuy bubble hand
 

I would either pot it, push, or go for the checkraise allin. If you are behind, you have so many outs.

Re: 100 rebuy bubble hand
 

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I would either pot it, push, or go for the checkraise allin. If you are behind, you have so many outs.

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Heres my thing betgo. If we're behind, yea we have a lot of outs, but do we want to willingly put our stack in behind?

If we're ahead, hes going to fold to this kind of action without any chance of him trying to bluff the worst hand. Its not like our hand is that vulnerable to being drawn out so i don't see what playing this hand so strong/fast aims to accomplish.

Re: 100 rebuy bubble hand
 

The reason why I don't like c/c-ing on a blank river is that villain will be betting for one of two reasons..

(1) Value
(2) Bluff

You beat none of his vbetting hands from category (1). Except an occasional AQ if the river comes a K and he decides to make a bad vbet.

Well, how bout category (2)? What hands can he be bluffing w/ that get to the river, whether we check/call turn or it goes check/check turn? You beat a flop float and someone turning like QJ into a bluff and that's about it. I think it's very reasonable to assume that unknown people in MTTs aren't going to be turning QJ into a bluff on a J5KA2/J5KAK/J5KAQ board, they are going to check it down.

Conclusion: There are very few combos of blank rivers/villain's bets, that I think I can call profitably.

Leading turn is all kinds of bad, you rarely fold out better hands, you fold out pretty much all worse hands, and if your hand is ahead, your opponent usually has like 2 outs. If you lead and you get raised, you're pretty much ALWAYS behind, I don't really feel like looking @ the math to see if you're committed to call a shove, but when your bet gets action, you're going to be getting your money in behind. However, if you check and he bets, you will very often have close to the right direct pot odds to c/c and draw to a T/spade.

Leading turn is really bad, unless you have some sick metagame stuff you are working into your game.

Re: 100 rebuy bubble hand
 

i would check call in an attempt to keep the pot small, and value bet river if it was check check, or push if it was bet call on turn

Re: 100 rebuy bubble hand
 

Gboro,

You didn't really try to figure out what your opponent's holding was. Isn't this one of those spots where it is perfect to flatcall KK/AA? Don't complete unknowns love to flatcall preflop with AK?

Just a thought...

Re: 100 rebuy bubble hand
 

How is check-calling a good play here? Especially on the bubble of the 100r? Against an unknown?

I see this is as a great time to make an agressive play.

- Bet 20k, or
- Check Raise all in

I think check-raising all in here is the best choice because you have fold equity over alot of hands. Plus if you do get called, and suck out on the river, you are sitting with a monster stack on the bubble.

Betting the pot can get you stuck in a bad spot if you get cold called/raised if the river blanks.

If it goes C/C on turn the best bet is around a 7k block/value bet.

Re: 100 rebuy bubble hand
 

Though I think the turn will likely go check/check, I like a check raise all in if he bets. I'm check/calling almost all rivers except if I hit.

Re: 100 rebuy bubble hand
 

[ QUOTE ]
Though I think the turn will likely go check/check, I like a check raise all in if he bets. I'm check/calling almost all rivers except if I hit.

[/ QUOTE ]

Why do you like a crai? The obvious draw on the flop just completed. Do you think a crai will fold out marginal better hands like AT? Assuming he will fold those to a cr, do you think he is betting these often on the turn. I would expect a check behind a fair amount of time with something marginal that is beating us.

Re: 100 rebuy bubble hand
 

I think if we bet the turn, it's a push, but I'm too hungover to give any decent rationale. Checking is fine too - push if he bets. Don't call much if anything on a bricked river.

Re: 100 rebuy bubble hand
 

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I think if we bet the turn, it's a push, but I'm too hungover to give any decent rationale. Checking is fine too - push if he bets. Don't call much if anything on a bricked river.

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i agree with the bold part [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]

Re: 100 rebuy bubble hand
 

lol @cable [img]/images/graemlins/wink.gif[/img]

i agree also either bet all in on turn
or check raise all in
if youre not already ahead then you still have
about 14 outs (2kings 3 tens 9 spades) and if he only has Arag then another 3 queens are outs aswell giving us 17 outs
giving us around 3-1 chance of hitting the river if we need to improve

Re: 100 rebuy bubble hand
 

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Leading turn is all kinds of bad, you rarely fold out better hands, you fold out pretty much all worse hands, and if your hand is ahead, your opponent usually has like 2 outs. If you lead and you get raised, you're pretty much ALWAYS behind, I don't really feel like looking @ the math to see if you're committed to call a shove, but when your bet gets action, you're going to be getting your money in behind. However, if you check and he bets, you will very often have close to the right direct pot odds to c/c and draw to a T/spade.

Leading turn is really bad, unless you have some sick metagame stuff you are working into your game.

[/ QUOTE ]

MikeJ owned this thread. My knee jerk reaction was to shove but when you read this everything is correct IMO...

Re: 100 rebuy bubble hand
 

The problem in this hand his that it's very unlikely we are ahead. He could have AK, JJ, pocket fives, KJs-KQs, KK, AA after his call on the turn; QQ would have raised on the turn I think to settle things out. AQ is possible though it is a littlebit golddigging. I don't see him laying down any of these hands after a check-raise all-in except for maybe AQ and QQ which was very unlikely in the first place.

Pokerstove:
Hand 0: 36.080% { KsQs }
Hand 1: 63.920% { JJ+, 55, AQs+, KJs+, AQo+ }

All in all shoving would be very very bad, you could try a blockbet of 10.000 but there is a very big chance he will raise that up. I would check and fold if you can't get enough odds.

Re: 100 rebuy bubble hand
 

I really like MikeJ`s reasoning. One could possibly argue in favour of getting it all in on turn given a gigabet point of view. If one believes the possibilities and posessed capabilities in a doubled stack at this point justifies the risk of crippling.

Stokken

Re: 100 rebuy bubble hand
 

this looks like an absolutely perfect spot for a check-raise shove... stack sizes, bubble of big tourney, lots of outs even if you get called, and hey if he checks behind then you see the river for free.

Re: 100 rebuy bubble hand
 

[ QUOTE ]
this looks like an absolutely perfect spot for a check-raise shove... stack sizes, bubble of big tourney, lots of outs even if you get called, and hey if he checks behind then you see the river for free.

[/ QUOTE ]

What the hell is going to fold to a crai?

Re: 100 rebuy bubble hand
 

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
this looks like an absolutely perfect spot for a check-raise shove... stack sizes, bubble of big tourney, lots of outs even if you get called, and hey if he checks behind then you see the river for free.

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What the hell is going to fold to a crai?

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He doesn't want him to fold. He hopes that worst hands will commit themselves to the pot. I was at the table when this hand happened (I think) so I know the results, but this looks like a c/c to me. You are not afraid of letting a free card as almost every card in the deck helps you.

So, we are either beat and need to draw one of our 12 outs or we are ahead. If we bet, all worst hands will probably fold and all better hands will call/push. That's why I would c/c this.

Re: 100 rebuy bubble hand
 

[ QUOTE ]
Gboro,

You didn't really try to figure out what your opponent's holding was. Isn't this one of those spots where it is perfect to flatcall KK/AA? Don't complete unknowns love to flatcall preflop with AK?

Just a thought...

[/ QUOTE ]

I wouldnt leave 55 out of his range. Calling preflop and slowplaying the set. I'm not sure how this works on this large of buyin, but if I flop a set in position, im calling his bet unless its a huge drawing board.

Re: 100 rebuy bubble hand
 

am I the only one who shoves on the turn here?

Re: 100 rebuy bubble hand
 

[ QUOTE ]
am I the only one who shoves on the turn here?

[/ QUOTE ]

You fold worst hands and you get called by better hands and there is about no card that hurt you. Why shove?

Re: 100 rebuy bubble hand
 

[ QUOTE ]
Gboro,

You didn't really try to figure out what your opponent's holding was. Isn't this one of those spots where it is perfect to flatcall KK/AA? Don't complete unknowns love to flatcall preflop with AK?

Just a thought...

[/ QUOTE ]


owned by iweargoggles.

i checked, villain bet like 14k, i made it 38k and he insta jammed for his last 12 or so. he had AK and i bricked.

with the bubble/stacks/my hand, i thought it was a good time to go for it, but i didn't want to bet out 10-15k and get blown out of the pot. some of you said to shove, but dont you think 50k into 20k = yuck?

i decided to check with the intention of c/raising and if he checked behind that would be fine too. but like goggles said, i didn't do a good job putting him on a hand. i guess i just hoped he hit a piece on the flop and would fold to resistance. but with his cold calls 2x, i should have realized what i was either being trapped by a big pp or up against a hand like AK or QT suited that loved the turn card.

pretty tough hand. thanks for the input

Re: 100 rebuy bubble hand
 

[ QUOTE ]
some of you said to shove, but dont you think 50k into 20k = yuck?


[/ QUOTE ]

I don't really mind the yucky part. I'm hungover again and still can't come up with a decent rationale but my point isn't that that pushing&gt;checking simply that pushing=betting. Anyone who is willing to put any money into this pot on this board, is going all the way on the turn but some stuff calls a standard turn bet but folds on rivers we hit.

Re: 100 rebuy bubble hand
 

instead of crai jstu c/c with intention of c/c ing your stack if you brick the river. Its identical to crai on turn but wit the added bonus of letting him bluff again. The reason we do this is because it seems we're all in agreement that there is NO BETTER HAND that villain bets turn and then folds to our shove. So given we have no fold equity on our turn shove, let's just call and plan on calling the river which now makes c/c profitable and not tough to play on river