Placing you in opponent\'s seat....
 

For this scenario, you will play the hand from the seat of my opponent. As in my post from two nights ago, I am curious as to how people think about and analyze particular hands as they are unfolding.

The tournament is the final round of the $300 modified shootout at the foxwoods poker classic.

Blinds are T50/T100, and average stack is about T5,700.

You have around T9,000, and I have around T6,300.

So far, I have been playing relatively tightly, and have shown good aggression when I feel my hand is best. I also have reraised you on one occasion preflop, and you folded. Neither of us showed our cards in that instance.

One limper, and you raise to T300 from late position with 9s 9c.

I reraise to T900.

Folded back to you. You think for a moment, and make it T2,500.

I declare myself all-in.

Do you:

a. Fold your cards face up?

b. Turn your cards over in order to try to get a reaction from me as to the relative strength of our hands?

c. Insta-call?


When answering this question, please include thought processes and reasoning regarding what you believe I might be holding.

Thank you, and am looking forward to your comments.


TK

Re: Placing you in opponent\'s seat....
 

so. its t3800 to call into a t9000 pot?

i guess i'd put u on QQ+/AK. its a close call against that range. but i also wouldnt have 3-bet to t2500 if i wasnt calling a push, so i dont know what to say about that.

Re: Placing you in opponent\'s seat....
 

[ QUOTE ]
i also wouldnt have 3-bet to t2500 if i wasnt calling a push, so i dont know what to say about that.

[/ QUOTE ]

Re: Placing you in opponent\'s seat....
 

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
i also wouldnt have 3-bet to t2500 if i wasnt calling a push, so i dont know what to say about that.

[/ QUOTE ]

[/ QUOTE ]

My thoughts as well. I wondered "why did I do that." Now that I'm apparently folding I muck the cards and say "nice hand sir." I don't want you to know what I had.

so, does it make sense to call the all-in here?
 

Thus far, the only people who have responded to this post have indicated they would not have re-raised to t2,500 if they were not planning to call a push. The question then becomes whether my initial re-raise demonstrated sufficient strength to make one reconsider whether the pocket 9's were in fact the best hand. Obviously, when my opponent popped it to t2,500, he thought his pair was good.

Does anyone here believe my second re-raise is a desperate attempt to steal, or is there a chance that such action announces a good hand? And, if you decide my second re-raise says a higher pair, are you really getting the right price to call?

Once again, am looking forward to the analyses.


TK

Re: so, does it make sense to call the all-in here?
 

If you seem to know what you're doing you might think I'm stealing with Ax, any 2 broadway, PP, or any connector. I would put you on AT+, KQ, 66+ which is hardly a desperate attempt to steal. I like to play flops, so I would call your 3 bet which should be scarier for you then a reraise and play post flop poker with position while also keeping the pot small. Any kind of 4 bet is gonna pot commit me to calling a push from you so I'd like to see a flop.

As played villain didn't play too badly, just differently then I do his 3 bet isn't horrible especially since 99 doesn't play real well post flop and you're only shoving with the bigger hands that are killing him (AA, KK, QQ) and the others that are flipping (AK, maybe AQ).

EDIT: As far as your question: C) I instacall then puke and wonder why I got myself pot committed with 99.

Re: so, does it make sense to call the all-in here?
 

i raise to 400. at this point i don't care what you have

if that is the case i assume you raise to 1200 instead of 900?? at this point i flat call for a flop since it's a live tourney and i'm thinking i can deff outplay you post flop, even with a hand like 99 (i put you on a range of ATs+, AJ+, 99+, 10% bluff chance, and you are in a strange spot out of position with about 2x the pot and would hate to push AK on a blank flop). as you type that i'm in late position but don't say where you are, so i'll assume you are the SB or BB) at this point i think i'm in control of the hand unless you are a stone with no tells (zeejustin style).

but that's just me.

if i get to where this villain is (which i wouldn't), i'm choosing
d) folding face down cause i'm annoyed i had to lay down 99 to your possible AK as i probably put you on QQ+,AK... and i think i'm better off out playing the tourney later than standing here to stack you and leave myself with t2,700.

A note regarding position in this hand....
 

Some people have noted that I did not reveal my position relative to yours. Because I have declared myself to be all-in, it did not seem to me that position is any longer an issue, since there will be no more betting if you decide to call. However, for the sake of completeness, I began the hand in the cutoff, and you were one seat to my right.

The responses have been interesting so far, and am looking forward to reading more of them.


TK

Re: Placing you in opponent\'s seat....
 

Well, I'm pretty awful at reading people so I definitely don't show you my cards. In fact, I never show my cards if I don't have to ESPECIALLY live because I really need to keep as much information secret as possible.

Now, you've shown a lot of strength and there's little chance I can play this properly post flop so I gotta either commit now or fold and given the pot is what it is (9250?)... I guess I shrug and call. Three betting to 2500 is not in my repetoire, I'd probably have either folded or reraised all-in in that spot. Edit: No, it's too much to push I probably either fold or call. Weak? Edit2: For range I might expect any pocket pair with AK, AQ rounding it off. You might have made the first raise with a HUGE range, but the fourth bet all-in eliminates a lot of those so I'll stick with the above. I think you play more smaller pockets than the others give you credit for, but I could be completely wrong.

Of course, all this comes from a rather inexperienced tournament player coming from limit cash and shorthanded limit cash games.

cjx

So, what is the right price (if any) to call here?
 

Some of you have indicated you feel the only way I am coming back over the top all-in is with a higher pocket pair than 99. Others have said they might think my holding is as weak as 66, but probably nothing less than that.

My question then becomes this:

If you believe I am five-betting all-in with nothing less than a pair of sixes, then how likely is it that your pair of 9's is actually the best hand at this point? And, if you assume my initial re-raise was not done with a weak hand (even if it were, a second re-raise all-in should have erased those doubts), then do you believe you really are "priced in" by calling the last bet with a holding that almost certainly is no better than a coin-flip?

Just out of curiousity, how many of you feel that, as played, I am holding something that in fact is beating 99 pre-flop?

As always, I am enjoying this discussion.


TK

Re: A note regarding position in this hand....
 

[ QUOTE ]
Some people have noted that I did not reveal my position relative to yours. Because I have declared myself to be all-in, it did not seem to me that position is any longer an issue, since there will be no more betting if you decide to call. However, for the sake of completeness, I began the hand in the cutoff, and you were one seat to my right.

The responses have been interesting so far, and am looking forward to reading more of them.


TK

[/ QUOTE ]

It's not just "for the sake of completeness." Terrible. That's like saying "Yeah, I raised and there was a push, so, it really doesn't matter if I raised UTG or CO or button." C'mon.

Where was the limper? EP, MP, Pluto?

This has the potential to be a very interesting post if it actually utilized the art of providing complete information.

As played, the limper and how he has played is pretty important. If limper is tight pre + CO knows this (I assume he does), then I may just limp in. If limper is a loose passive or not that tight, then I would raise to 400 (not 300), then if CO repops me, I have to make a decision. I think my decision would be to CR if I feel that he could fold 1010, JJ, or AQ/AK [which I think he can). I would bet a little more to make it apparent that I was committed with this hand.

Re: A note regarding position in this hand....
 

I assume you have a bigger pair and assume I'm a donkey for getting too agressive. If it's a bluff it's shear brilliance with the blinds at 50/100 and I have no problem paying that off either. I don't like praying you have AK and I'm at best coin flip for all my chips. so either way I happily fold...Given the choices (which I don't like any of)... I fold face up. Two reasons for face up...

1. so you see I will re-raise you with little pairs fearlessly, and then the next time I do it to someone there I hope to do it with AA KK QQ AK and get paid off.
2. hoping you will feel compelled to show me your hand (highly unlikely).

Re: So, what is the right price (if any) to call here?
 

The real weak 3 raise is very fishy, I would never make this play with the stacks without a great read. It is a close spot as to what to do. The reason for calling could be made that I will still have a decent stack and M if I call and lose and if I win I have a nice chip stack. If I fold and I am a great player then I still have chips to play with. Against a table of sharks I call here, against your average $300 buy in table I fold and just outplay everyone thereafter avoiding these close spots.

another thing to consider....
 

Very few people have had trouble with the idea of calling the initial re-raise (a 3-bet) with pocket 9's. To me, this makes sense from the standpoint of making the call when one has enough chips so that if overcards hit the flop, and a 9 does not appear, one can get off the hand with minimal damage. However, the hand was not played with a flat-call of the initial re-raise -- it was played with my opponent (you) making a 4-bet to t2,500, and then with me making my second re-raise (a five-bet) all-in.

At this point, it seems to me that one must contemplate seriously the possibility that such a betting pattern is not indicative of a bluff. If that is the case, then are the 9's really getting "the right price" to call -- especially at such an early stage of the tournament?

So far, while some responses have admitted my 5-bet range probably is beating 99, nobody has mentioned whether they think that, at level two of a somewhat deep-stacked tourney, they believe it is correct to make this call heads-up.


TK

Re: another thing to consider....
 

BBV is down the street

Re: another thing to consider....
 

I'd rather dip my nuts in acid rather than raise to T2500 in this spot. From my standpoint, if I had raised to T2500, I have a pretty damn good intent to get it AI - like I have JJ+/AKs or something. So, if I am raising, I'm raising to ~3300 so that I can turn my raise not into some sort of pussy feeler thing against a three-bet, but more so against a "If you want your [censored] 1010, JJ, AK, or AQs in, let's get it in, [censored]." And then if he does push, I have to call. I don't want to ever have to decide whether to fold or push after 3-betting in this structure. After 3-betting, there need be but one option with this stack.

OK, having said that, now at T6500 after my ghastly 4-bet, I probably let it go. And I don't show - let the table think about what I folded.

Re: so, does it make sense to call the all-in here?
 

[ QUOTE ]
If you seem to know what you're doing you might think I'm stealing with Ax, any 2 broadway, PP, or any connector. I would put you on AT+, KQ, 66+ which is hardly a desperate attempt to steal. I like to play flops, so I would call your 3 bet which should be scarier for you then a reraise and play post flop poker with position while also keeping the pot small. Any kind of 4 bet is gonna pot commit me to calling a push from you so I'd like to see a flop.

As played villain didn't play too badly, just differently then I do his 3 bet isn't horrible especially since 99 doesn't play real well post flop and you're only shoving with the bigger hands that are killing him (AA, KK, QQ) and the others that are flipping (AK, maybe AQ).

EDIT: As far as your question: C) I instacall then puke and wonder why I got myself pot committed with 99.

[/ QUOTE ]

Oops I thought you were in one of the blinds. I would change your reraising range and whether I call or fold to your 3 bet depending on what position you are. To answer your question, I still call, but I try not to put myself in bad spots like this.

Re: Placing you in opponent\'s seat....
 

This is an insta-call, all day every day.
Pot odds: 2.6 to 1 ish.
Even against the worst range for our hand TT+,AK we only need 2.2 to 1 ish.

Re: Placing you in opponent\'s seat....
 

[ QUOTE ]
This is an insta-call, all day every day.
Pot odds: 2.6 to 1 ish.
Even against the worst range for our hand TT+,AK we only need 2.2 to 1 ish.

[/ QUOTE ]

Its so nice to see the level of idiot has grown on this forum.

This is a good thing! Keep spouting nonsense and use that authoritative language to make it sound 'right'. That way more people will play like you, and then justify it as a 'right' play.

IN THIS SPOT, Fourth raise is 89% AA. Its 10% KK, 1% other.

you need way WAY more than 2.2 - 1 to make this call.

Re: Placing you in opponent\'s seat....
 

Well if it was me I would not have made the 2500 reraise, but I would have definetly called and flopped my quads to your set. I would only make that RR if I was looking to get all the chips in the middle no way would I fold to your AI.

First off I would only called preflop because of how you described your play. I would put you on a range of something like 88-AA AK-AQ and that seems pretty ugly to me, but mabye you blinked weird or something so I picked up a read that you are weak and I would make the IIIIINNNNSTTTAAAAAAAA-CALL!

Re: Placing you in opponent\'s seat....
 

lol poker stove it, good post btw.
2.2 to 1 is right.

Re: Placing you in opponent\'s seat....
 

lol I would suggest his range here as QQ+,AK. He doesnt have that many chips and all this is taking place in late position. Others are suggesting 66+ etc. etc.

Against QQ+,AK we only need 1.77 to 1 to call here.
If you think he only ever has AA,KK that is fine, but I think its wrong. I agree if opponent knows we only ever have KK+ plus here its an easy fold but try not to be such a w@nker while voicing your opinions.

Re: A note regarding position in this hand....
 

so u clearly missed the 'folded back to you'. the limper is irrelevant to the hand, as he FOLDED.

good god people.

Re: Placing you in opponent\'s seat....
 

[ QUOTE ]
lol I would suggest his range here as QQ+,AK. He doesnt have that many chips and all this is taking place in late position. Others are suggesting 66+ etc. etc.

Against QQ+,AK we only need 1.77 to 1 to call here.
If you think he only ever has AA,KK that is fine, but I think its wrong. I agree if opponent knows we only ever have KK+ plus here its an easy fold but try not to be such a w@nker while voicing your opinions.

[/ QUOTE ]

doesn't have many chips? he has 9k and blinds at 50/100!!!

he has a HUGE stack. he's not pushing 9k at this level without a MONSTER!!

QQ just calls the 2500 here 95% of the time, wants to see a flop and decide.

AK is a possibility, but once again, after getting reraised to 2500, and with a stack of 9k, AK often just calls.

when he puts 9k in the middle at this early stage, its rarely ever AK or QQ or worse.

Of course, if this is much later in the tourney, this whole conversation would change dramatically.

calling here with 99 is not a leak, the whole bottom fell out of the pail.

-Scott

Re: Placing you in opponent\'s seat....
 

[ QUOTE ]
lol poker stove it, good post btw.
2.2 to 1 is right.

[/ QUOTE ]

I can make pokerstove prove anything, when I put in a range that gets the results I'm looking for.

my point is your range is way off.

-Scott

Re: Placing you in opponent\'s seat....
 

He has 6k.
It would be stupid to call off half your stack here.

The only reason I pick TT+ is because its the worst possible range for 99, I agree it should be much much tighter than this.

If you pokerstove it, this decision comes down to whether AK is part of his range, if it is - this is the easiest call in the world. If not this is a fold.

Re: Placing you in opponent\'s seat....
 

You could almost justify calling QQ here and pushing/calling ai non A,K flop. Calling AK here with 6k for 2.5k is bad as we all know it plays best over 5 cards.

Re: Placing you in opponent\'s seat....
 

[ QUOTE ]
He has 6k.
It would be stupid to call off half your stack here.

The only reason I pick TT+ is because its the worst possible range for 99, I agree it should be much much tighter than this.

If you pokerstove it, this decision comes down to whether AK is part of his range, if it is - this is the easiest call in the world. If not this is a fold.

[/ QUOTE ]

The guy who put in the 4th raise had a 9k stack.

no way in hell he's putting 9k in the middle with TT!!

dude lay off the funny cigs.

-Scott

Re: Placing you in opponent\'s seat....
 

We have 9k, opponent has 6k.
We raise with 99 to 300, he r/r to 900, we raise to 2500, he pushes 6300 total.

He has 6k!

I dont know how to explain this any clearer to you than, it is much worse for our opponent to have TT+,AK here than AA,AK. Hence I picked worst case scenario with TT+,AK even though he should be moving much tighter than this.

Re: Placing you in opponent\'s seat....
 

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
He has 6k.
It would be stupid to call off half your stack here.

The only reason I pick TT+ is because its the worst possible range for 99, I agree it should be much much tighter than this.

If you pokerstove it, this decision comes down to whether AK is part of his range, if it is - this is the easiest call in the world. If not this is a fold.

[/ QUOTE ]

The guy who put in the 4th raise had a 9k stack.

no way in hell he's putting 9k in the middle with TT!!

dude lay off the funny cigs.

-Scott

[/ QUOTE ]

My god you're tight. It all depends on the opponent's table image. What if he donks around and get it in with low pairs (bcz those are nuts) and Ax and got his stack that way.

That said with villain's image, I fold this everyday and I just call the 3bet for set/str8 draw value.

Re: A note regarding position in this hand....
 

[ QUOTE ]
so u clearly missed the 'folded back to you'. the limper is irrelevant to the hand, as he FOLDED.

good god people.

[/ QUOTE ]

I didn't, Sobe, read my explanation first. Thanks much.

Let me repeat it:

If limper is TIGHT and in UTG/UTG+1, then it is relevant as to both your raising range and button's re-raising range.

If limper is tricky, likes to get in a lot of pots, etc., then that's relevant.

If limper is loose passive, not so relevant.

It's not that he FOLDED, it's how his limp may/may not affect how I play 99 and how villain plays his hand to the left of me.

It's why I don't like this post - position is ignored early, then stated, early limper's tendencies are not listed. It becomes strictly a math problem, which is boring. Oh yeah, fold.