30/60 Stud Hi Flush
 

Typical aggressive 5-handed game, but no specific reads on the main villain here. 3-bet the river or just call, and is it close? Comments until then?

7 Card Stud High ($30/$60), Ante $5 (converter)

3rd Street - (0.83 SB)

Seat 1: xx xx 3[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]___folds
Seat 2: xx xx 8[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]___raises
Seat 3: xx xx 2[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]___brings-in_folds
Seat 4: xx xx T[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]___completes___folds
Hero: 4[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] A[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] 5[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]___calls___calls

4th Street - (6.17 SB)

Seat 2: xx xx 8[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] K[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]___bets
Hero: 4[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] A[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] 5[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] Q[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]___calls

5th Street - (4.08 BB)

Seat 2: xx xx 8[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] K[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] J[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]___calls
Hero: 4[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] A[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] 5[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] Q[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] Q[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]___bets

6th Street - (6.08 BB)

Seat 2: xx xx 8[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] K[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] J[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] 2[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]___calls
Hero: 4[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] A[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] 5[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] Q[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] Q[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] 8[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]___bets

River - (8.08 BB)

Seat 2: xx xx 8[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] K[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] J[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] 2[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] xx___raises
Hero: 4[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] A[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] 5[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] Q[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] Q[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] 8[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] 8[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]___bets___?

Re: 30/60 Stud Hi Flush
 

You have to bet the river. With his raise on 3rd, bet on fourth, and flat call on 5th, his hand looks a lot more like a big pair than trips. I might have raised 4th as well.

Re: 30/60 Stud Hi Flush
 

On 3rd you should reraise here as your standard play just because of the likelihood the T is stealing, and you're not that far behind split tens anyway.

On 4th you can value raise. You definitely don't want to always raise your flushes but here you have two big cards and straight potential.

On the other hand the 8 is kind of looking like he has a big buried pair himself, and his leading into your board is somewhat strong, so calling is fine too.

Once he calls 5th it looks like he has aces or a four flush, though he could also have two pair or a smaller pair like TT chasing.

The river is a definite three bet, it's not close. He could have trips or aces up or kings up or a smaller flush.

The fact that you hold two eights make it especially unlikely he has a boat.

The main thing I would be afraid of is a bigger flush, but you will see the various holdings you beat a lot more often I think, especially since the 3rd street play is fairly unsual for a flush.

Re: 30/60 Stud Hi Flush
 

Hmmmm...this is interesting.

I'm going to assume that villain in this hand would not 3-bet the BI unless he had a buried pair bigger than the Ts that Seat 4 is representing, or at least had Ax spades. (Personally, I would not 3-bet the latter, but I know some players would.)

Subsequently, given villain's actions on 4th and 5th streets, I think we can rule out him having buried Ks and buried Js, and since you catch Qs on 5th and 6th, it makes it highly unlikely that villain has buried Qs.

Therefore, by the time you get to the river, I think villain's most likely hands (in order) are either As over, a spade flush (probably AK high), or trips (presumably trip As).

IMO it's a close call as to whether you 3-bet the river or just call, but since you beat two of his most likely hands, I think you 3-bet it.

Re: 30/60 Stud Hi Flush
 

[ QUOTE ]
On 3rd you should reraise here as your standard play just because of the likelihood the T is stealing, and you're not that far behind split tens anyway.


[/ QUOTE ]

This makes no sense, inasmuch as the T has already folded to the villain's 3-bet before action comes back to the hero.

Re: 30/60 Stud Hi Flush
 

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
On 3rd you should reraise here as your standard play just because of the likelihood the T is stealing, and you're not that far behind split tens anyway.


[/ QUOTE ]

This makes no sense, inasmuch as the T has already folded to the villain's 3-bet before action comes back to the hero.

[/ QUOTE ]

I think he means the first time around when hero just calls. I don't mind the call, but I think with either 2 overcards instead of 1 or the A showing a reraise is a good play...he could very well be stealing with all the other low trash cards showing.

I like a raise on 4th.

on the river i think a 3 bet is ok. really only worried about an AK flush I think. Could be a boat, but he often will have tripped up or thinks his K flush is best or he has a mediocre hand and wants you to fold hoping you just have the Qs and a busted flush draw.

Re: 30/60 Stud Hi Flush
 

A 3 bet? I think thats spewiing. If OP wasn't showing QQ and hadnt been consistenyl aggressive, then I can see a 3-bet. But not as played.

Re: 30/60 Stud Hi Flush
 

I go three bets. He's beating Queens-up, but your hand beats a lot of hands he'd raise with. He might have rivered Jacks full, but since he didn't go to war on Fifth or Sixth, Kings full is unlikely. Raise on third makes a flush less likely overall, but if you're beat, you probably get shown AK spade flush he overplayed on Third.

Re: 30/60 Stud Hi Flush
 

If we 3-bet can we fold to a cap?

Re: 30/60 Stud Hi Flush
 

Of course you re-raise. It's a bloody no-brainer.

(is this really a serious question?)

Re: 30/60 Stud Hi Flush
 

[ QUOTE ]
If we 3-bet can we fold to a cap?

[/ QUOTE ] Ummm. No. You win this hand 80%+ of the time - and pot is too big to fold for one more bet.

Re: 30/60 Stud Hi Flush
 

blumpkin22.....guess what JTMARLIN cant go to the casino for awhile....lolololol Im going to track you down at seat st your table..soooon. lololololol

Re: 30/60 Stud Hi Flush
 

No.

Re: 30/60 Stud Hi Flush
 

Raise fourth. Three-bet the river. He is probably raising with a King-high flush.

Re: 30/60 Stud Hi Flush
 

What Poorlawyer said.

Re: 30/60 Stud Hi Flush
 

Easy three bet. I don't think he was just calling with anything that beat Qs up along the way, so I think it is extremely unlikely he filled here.

He needs the A spades to beat you here. Assuming a flush, he has 3 of the remaining 11 spades in the hole (He has the ace about 30% of the time).

So it is about 70/30 you win even when he makes a flush.

You are laying 2-1 on the 3 bet (67/33).

So you have an overlay, even if you call and lose 100% of the time whenever he 4 bets.

Given that he could also be raising many other lower non-flush hands (and maybe a few funky full houses) you have an even bigger overlay.

I would only not raise if you were playing 'higher' on short money, and maybe wouldn't want the variance, but other than that, pop it one more time.


Edit: I'm going to argue against myself here. In pure math, he is 30/70 not to have the ace. In reality he is much more likely to re-raise a three flush holding the ace. I'm not sure we have an easy three bet given that thought.

I still three bet it though.

Re: 30/60 Stud Hi Flush
 

"Edit: I'm going to argue against myself here. In pure math, he is 30/70 not to have the ace. In reality he is much more likely to re-raise a three flush holding the ace. I'm not sure we have an easy three bet given that thought."

This is very important to the analysis.

In short, on 3rd street it is unlikely that he has a 3-flush. His most likely hand is a big pair. However, after his river raise, his most likely hand is a flush, and if he has the flush, he is quite likely to have the A[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] BECAUSE of his third street play.

Those who are saying it is a clear 3-bet are not thinking about these important details. The decision is quite close IMO.

Re: 30/60 Stud Hi Flush
 

I think it most depends on what he'll do with a hand worse than a flush if you 3bet. If he's smart and is folding then a 3bet is not worth much. If he's bad and keeping you honest then I think it's close.

Re: 30/60 Stud Hi Flush
 

Yeah but he can also have aces up, kings up, or trips. He doesn't have to be putting you on anything more than queens up.

I think the flush point is pretty obvious. If he does have a flush there is a very good chance it is AK high.

Re: 30/60 Stud Hi Flush
 

"I think it most depends on what he'll do with a hand worse than a flush if you 3bet. If he's smart and is folding then a 3bet is not worth much. If he's bad and keeping you honest then I think it's close."

I very much agree, and would argue that even the better players online will still make some calls are crying calls at best. Whenever you try and estimate how frequently they will call with losing hands, you will almost always be underestimating.

Re: 30/60 Stud Hi Flush
 

"Yeah but he can also have aces up, kings up, or trips. He doesn't have to be putting you on anything more than queens up.

I think the flush point is pretty obvious. If he does have a flush there is a very good chance it is AK high."

100% agree.

Re: 30/60 Stud Hi Flush
 

If you 3bet would the presence of your open pair of queens make him just call if he did river the AK flush? If so, I'd 3bet.

From a hypothetical standpoint, if your doorcard were the A[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] instead of the 5[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], how does that change your river play, if at all? I would guess it might make calling the raise a better play, but I'm still in the beginning stages of learning stud.

Re: 30/60 Stud Hi Flush
 

4th looks like a raise. as for river, i think it is close, esoecailly with your strong looking board, but what possible hand could he be raising with? Flush looks most likely,a nd your flush is likely higher. His raise on 3rd could mean anthing in this short aggresive game. While he still could have the higher flush or even a boat, betting for value works best for me. If you are rearised, then you call; folding is not an option.

Re: 30/60 Stud Hi Flush
 

I 3-bet.

Villian is putting you on Qs up. He probably made a flush. And its not likely to be the Ace high. And even if he has an Ace high flush, he probably won't cap.

Re: 30/60 Stud Hi Flush
 

[ QUOTE ]
...He probably made a flush. And its not likely to be the Ace high....

[/ QUOTE ]Some people are saying this, but given the raise on Third I think any flush villain makes is going to have the A[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] in it. I do think there are enough other hands he could have to make a three-bet worthwhile.

Re: 30/60 Stud Hi Flush
 

I'm really surprised you didn't raise 4th. Given that, and your board, he has you on some double paired hand and makes your 3-bet even easier.

Re: 30/60 Stud Hi Flush
 

[ QUOTE ]

Yeah but he can also have aces up, kings up, or trips. He doesn't have to be putting you on anything more than queens up.

I think the flush point is pretty obvious. If he does have a flush there is a very good chance it is AK high.

[/ QUOTE ]

Is aces up even a good value raise on the river here? (And if aces up aren't, can trips ever be?) Given that your most likely hands are a pair on third or a flush draw, it seems like a bad raise against a player who can bet-fold queens with a busted flush draw or queens up. I'm willing to believe that it is a good idea against some opponents, but not against all opponents. Are there players who will raise and fold with aces up if you three-bet?

Re: 30/60 Stud Hi Flush
 

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]

Yeah but he can also have aces up, kings up, or trips. He doesn't have to be putting you on anything more than queens up.

I think the flush point is pretty obvious. If he does have a flush there is a very good chance it is AK high.

[/ QUOTE ]

Is aces up even a good value raise on the river here? (And if aces up aren't, can trips ever be?) Given that your most likely hands are a pair on third or a flush draw, it seems like a bad raise against a player who can bet-fold queens with a busted flush draw or queens up. I'm willing to believe that it is a good idea against some opponents, but not against all opponents. Are there players who will raise and fold with aces up if you three-bet?

[/ QUOTE ]


A question like this can be answered on a practical or a theoretical level.

On a theoretical level, hero could definitely have nothing but QQ on 7th and bet it as a bluff.

The fact that hero could be bluffing forces villain to call with a large % of his hands that beat QQ but not queens up.

At the same time villain should, in theory, bluff raise some of these hands that beat QQ but not queens up, so that hero cannot automatically fold queens up to a raise.

The upshot is that in theory it probably should be profitable to value raise with aces or kings up here, UNLESS hero's distribution is heavily weighted to four flushes.

Based on the 3rd street action I would say it's very likely hero started with a 3 straight or 3 flush here. You would have to consider the exposed cards and crunch specific numbers, but I think the possiblity of a 3 straight down is probably big enough that villain should, in theory, raise kings or aces up.

Now in practice it's a completely different story... if hero is in fact going to fold queens up here a high % of the time, then value raising aces or kings up or even trips is a mistake, but bluff-raising becomes highly profitable.

Re: 30/60 Stud Hi Flush
 

The theory is the easy part. The practical is the hard part.

If hero can't automatically fold queens up, I don't think that hero can automatically call with queens up without being exploitable, either. I also suspect that the villain can't automatically raise aces up here without being exploitable, too, although it may require a tough hero to recognize and figure out how to exploit the villain's play. Am I wrong?

It seems like your assumption for the villain is that hero will always bet the river with that board? Is that a safe assumption? Is that automatic play right for the hero, regardless of his actual hole cards? If the villain thinks that hero won't always bet the river, is that enough to make value raising aces up/kings up/trips a mistake?

I don't think that the times that the hero is starting with a three-straight down really makes the villain raising with aces up that much better. If hero started with a three straight, he has one pair, drawing to two pair and possibly a gutshot on the river. Keep in mind that if hero started with three straight cards, he has a small straight draw that wasn't completely live and he called after bricking fourth street against a player with two suited cards who showed some strength on third street. Which possible straight draws do you have hero playing that way? If that gives the hero enough callable hands to shift a raise into the +EV column, then it sounds like a pretty thin value raise.

One thing that I am thinking about is the possibility of going for a check-raise on the river here. Am I the only one who even contemplated the idea, even if it was immediately dismissed? I can think of at least one betting profile where going for a check-raise seems at least close enough that I should really do the rigorous math.

To give you an idea of where I am coming from, I am used to playing (at lower stakes than this) against passive but not always clueless players, some of whom won't raise me on the river unless they can beat a queen-high flush because I have a tight image that allows me to steal a decent number of medium-sized pots. Three-betting a flush when I have a paired board ends up being wrong against some of these players. Because of this, I think that a leak in my game is not going for a check-raise or a bluff-raise on the end against aggressive players, so I've taught myself to think about all of my possible options unless I've done some rigorous math for that particular situation. While I've soaked up many books and the conventional wisdom, I'm still inclined to deconstruct particular plays and examine the assumptions that people are making.

Re: 30/60 Stud Hi Flush
 

Hero absolutely has to peel a bricked straight draw on 4th street given the pot size, especially after catching a live overcard to his opponent.

As for check-raise versus lead out, certainly that's a viable option. Nobody really knows what the optimal play here is.

My post was just arguing that, in theory, opponent should be able value raise hands that beat queens up, and therefore it makes sense to include those hands in his distribution when hero is considering a value 3-bet.

To answer another of your questions hero should definitely not be betting the river every time with his board. He should be bluffing QQ a small % of the time and, imo, value betting queens up and value betting a flush at least sometimes, but also probably check-raising it sometimes.

Re: 30/60 Stud Hi Flush
 

[ QUOTE ]
I'm really surprised you didn't raise 4th. Given that, and your board, he has you on some double paired hand and makes your 3-bet even easier.

[/ QUOTE ]

Joe, what do you think he hand range is after he calls the bet from my open QQ on 5th?

Re: 30/60 Stud Hi Flush
 

In order:

Any Ace high 4 flush with, or w/o a pair, maybe with a gutshot

A pair of Aces with a 3flush.

Maybe trip kings waiting for you to brick 6th before putting in a raise, but it's doubtful, and after 6th's action non-existant.

Re: 30/60 Stud Hi Flush
 

[ QUOTE ]
Typical aggressive 5-handed game, but no specific reads on the main villain here. 3-bet the river or just call, and is it close? Comments until then?

7 Card Stud High ($30/$60), Ante $5 (converter)

3rd Street - (0.83 SB)

Seat 1: xx xx 3[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]___folds
Seat 2: xx xx 8[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]___raises
Seat 3: xx xx 2[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]___brings-in_folds
Seat 4: xx xx T[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]___completes___folds
Hero: 4[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] A[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] 5[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]___calls___calls

4th Street - (6.17 SB)

Seat 2: xx xx 8[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] K[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]___bets
Hero: 4[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] A[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] 5[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] Q[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]___calls

5th Street - (4.08 BB)

Seat 2: xx xx 8[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] K[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] J[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]___calls
Hero: 4[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] A[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] 5[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] Q[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] Q[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]___bets

6th Street - (6.08 BB)

Seat 2: xx xx 8[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] K[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] J[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] 2[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]___calls
Hero: 4[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] A[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] 5[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] Q[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] Q[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] 8[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]___bets

River - (8.08 BB)

Seat 2: xx xx 8[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] K[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] J[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] 2[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] xx___raises
Hero: 4[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] A[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] 5[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] Q[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] Q[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] 8[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] 8[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]___bets___?

[/ QUOTE ]

What hole cards does villain 3-bet 3rd, bet 4th, call 5th & 6th, and raise 7th with, knowing that hero is getting 11-1 on a call?

I think it's AA (he'd have to have caught the caser on 7th), KK or JJ (somewhat unlikely; you'd think he'd raise 6th), straight flush cards, or big flush cards. And like Alex says, he could've backdoored a straight.

If he's raising on a busted flush or two-pair, God bless him. And you certainly can't fold to a 4-bet getting 14-1 against an unknown opponent.

Pretty close, and we don't know how he plays, but I lean towards calling. I think the hands he 4bets with & the hands he calls with and wins outweigh the cards he calls with and loses.

I'm gonna go out on a limb and say he's got jacks full.

Re: 30/60 Stud Hi Flush
 

I don't think KK or JJ are possible when you combine 5th and 6th action.

Results
 

When he raised, I thought, "Wow he made a flush, should I 3-bet? Yes." And so I did, he called, and I lost to the AK flush. After thinking about the hand afterward, I think I should just call because if he has the flush (which is likely given 5th/6th calls and 7th raise), it is probable (though of course not definite) he has the A[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] given the 3rd street repop. The only other hands he could have (barring some longshot goofy hand) would be pocket aces turned aces-up or trip aces (probabilistically unlikely given our hand) making a thin value river raise, or the flush draw that hit a straight. As stated, he'll never have trip Ks and Js because he will raise either 5th or 6th with those monster hands. Consequently, the likelihood of a full house is quite low.

In short, his most likely hand is the AK flush, followed by a K-high flush, followed by aces up. Thus, I think a 3-bet is marginally incorrect, but definitely not horrible since he almost surely will not cap the betting (in part because of our open pair) and will most likely call with hands we beat that he raised for value.

Re: Results
 

[ QUOTE ]
When he raised, I thought, "Wow he made a flush, should I 3-bet? Yes." And so I did, he called, and I lost to the AK flush. After thinking about the hand afterward, I think I should just call because if he has the flush (which is likely given 5th/6th calls and 7th raise), it is probable (though of course not definite) he has the A[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] given the 3rd street repop. The only other hands he could have (barring some longshot goofy hand) would be pocket aces turned aces-up or trip aces (probabilistically unlikely given our hand) making a thin value river raise, or the flush draw that hit a straight. As stated, he'll never have trip Ks and Js because he will raise either 5th or 6th with those monster hands. Consequently, the likelihood of a full house is quite low.

In short, his most likely hand is the AK flush, followed by a K-high flush, followed by aces up. Thus, I think a 3-bet is marginally incorrect, but definitely not horrible since he almost surely will not cap the betting (in part because of our open pair) and will most likely call with hands we beat that he raised for value.

[/ QUOTE ]

This was an enjoyable post blumpkin, and I was pretty sure he had the AK flush as we went along as you gently tried to lead us in the right direction. I wish I had responded one more time before you posted the results, but I didn't, so...

"what do you think he hand range is after he calls the bet from my open QQ on 5th?"

I had thought about this question for a couple of days, and I came up with the same answers you just mentioned, AA or the 3 flush holding the A.

Given all of the discussion, I have come to agree, in this specific situation, the raising is incorrect. (Yes, this is post results, nonetheless, I think I have been honest about my opinion the whole way).

In the heat of battle I'm 3-betting this every time. For 2 reasons.

1) We're protected against a cap because of the Q's,(which you have just mentioned).

2) It's not obvious that our hand is a flush. I could easily see aces up popping the river.

So there is my final analysis. Give me 4 seconds to think about it, 3 bet it every time.

Give me four days, and I'm just calling.

Good job on a nice post.

Re: Results
 

After thinking for awhile, I think Villain should raise 6th no matter what he has. From the way the hand was played, Hero's most likely hand is 4-flush w/Q's, and he is really put to the test to call unimproved on the river then, IMO.

Raising 6th gives Villain a strong chance to win with the worst hand on 7th if neither improve, and he's still prolly gonna get three bets if BOTH improve. Anyone else agree?

FWIW I don't think the re-raise on 7th was too bad at all.