Another Satellite bubble question
 

Top 3 get seat($800), 4th is worth $155

PokerStars Game #8885054925: Tournament #44848134, $50+$5 Hold'em No Limit - Level XI (600/1200) - 2007/03/13 - 15:55:24 (ET)
Table '44848134 2' 9-max Seat #1 is the button
Seat 1: striker2 (12480 in chips)
Seat 2: SiVTEC (29545 in chips)
Seat 4: THAY3R (13035 in chips)
Seat 9: DaButcher666 (34940 in chips)
striker2: posts the ante 75
SiVTEC: posts the ante 75
THAY3R: posts the ante 75
DaButcher666: posts the ante 75
SiVTEC: posts small blind 600
THAY3R: posts big blind 1200
*** HOLE CARDS ***
Dealt to THAY3R [Kh Ks]
DaButcher666: folds
striker2: raises 11205 to 12405 and is all-in
SiVTEC: folds
THAY3R: calls 11205

Re: Another Satellite bubble question
 

I'm not sure what the question is, but this is a very very easy call from where I stand.

Re: Another Satellite bubble question
 

Instant call. LOL

Re: Another Satellite bubble question
 

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Instant call. LOL

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LOL at LOL. I hardly think this question is as simple as it appears.

Re: Another Satellite bubble question
 

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Instant call. LOL

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LOL at LOL. I hardly think this question is as simple as it appears.

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If the pusher was anyone but the shortie, it would be pretty close either way. Since this is the very guy you need to outlast, instacall indeed.

Re: Another Satellite bubble question
 

I'm inclined to calling here. I doubt I'd push my aces if I was the villain, so you're really looking at prob 70/30 edge if he has an ace. Do you get a better chance to get your money in?

As an aside, I'm just starting to add my thoughts to questions, so be gentle with me! [img]/images/graemlins/wink.gif[/img]

Re: Another Satellite bubble question
 

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Instant call. LOL

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LOL at LOL. I hardly think this question is as simple as it appears.

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If the pusher was anyone but the shortie, it would be pretty close either way. Since this is the very guy you need to outlast, instacall indeed.

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I am referring to the fact that certainly more information is available than this. For example, are all players playing optimally (folding when the shorty shoves). If so, it may be best to fold here and keep open shoving yourself. Especially if the short stack isn't playing optimally (i.e. isn't shoving enough himself).

I'd probably call in this situation too, but I'm not sure it is right.

Re: Another Satellite bubble question
 

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I doubt I'd push my aces if I was the villain, so you're really looking at prob 70/30 edge if he has an ace.

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I'd push aces here if I had them.

Re: Another Satellite bubble question
 

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I doubt I'd push my aces if I was the villain, so you're really looking at prob 70/30 edge if he has an ace.

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I'd push aces here if I had them.

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Agreed. You push Aces here, because shorty should be pushing a wide range. So anything other than a push would be suspicious.

However, I still call.

Re: Another Satellite bubble question
 

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I am referring to the fact that certainly more information is available than this. For example, are all players playing optimally (folding when the shorty shoves). If so, it may be best to fold here and keep open shoving yourself. Especially if the short stack isn't playing optimally (i.e. isn't shoving enough himself).

I'd probably call in this situation too, but I'm not sure it is right.

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If there is more information available, it's not in the OP. I'm answering the OP as stated. Given that neither of the two big stacks can call loosely like they could if they had humongous lead, your current edge, which I estimate to be 75-25 over his pushing range, is much better than your chances of outlasting the shortie by just staying afloat and waiting for him to bust.

Re: Another Satellite bubble question
 

call

Re: Another Satellite bubble question
 

I'm not sure how you can ever pass up an opportunity like this to eliminate the other shorty, especially given that as was said the big stacks aren't exactly safe by calling either of you.

Re: Another Satellite bubble question
 

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especially given that as was said the big stacks aren't exactly safe by calling either of you.

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To me this is a greater reason to fold than to call.

Re: Another Satellite bubble question
 

Instacall

edit:
I'll explain a bit because the shorties pushes it's an instacall if he picks up the blinds you lose equity because you need to outlast him. Since he's short if you win you guarantee a seat.

Re: Another Satellite bubble question
 

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especially given that as was said the big stacks aren't exactly safe by calling either of you.

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To me this is a greater reason to fold than to call.

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What I meant was you need the other shorty to go out, correct? If the other stacks aren't going to be willing to make a call against him, and given no other reads that we're stealing more often than other shorty to make up for that fact, then you HAVE to take this opportunity to eliminate him with the 2nd best starting hand.

I mean, what else are you going to do?

And as Eagles said, you can't give him the blinds here as then you become shorty.

Someone has to go out, this is by far the best opportunity you're going to have to do that.

Re: Another Satellite bubble question
 

Alright fine. I don't have any software with me to run the analysis, but it basically comes down to this...if somone wants to do it.

Run KK against villains pushing range here (which I think we all agree is pretty wide).

Compare that probability to the probability of THAY3R getting a seat if he folds and continues to play. This second probability is clearly an estimation and I think only THAY3R can give us the best estimate. May the best probability win.

As a prediction, I think calling is correct...but not by nearly as much as people think it is.

Re: Another Satellite bubble question
 

Call, even with a skill advantage I think it's tough to pass up an 80/20 or 70/30 spot. I'm not sure I can call here with QQ, could anyone else?

Re: Another Satellite bubble question
 

i think its instacall against other shorty

Re: Another Satellite bubble question
 

Guys, given the stack sizes, THAY3R's skill, the skill of other players, and the fact that 3/4 of the players left get a seat...I can't see THAY3R being much less than 70% to get a seat if he folds.

He might even be closer to 75% (even odds). Is KK better than 70-75% against villain's rasing range...I don't have the damn software with me. Someone run some ranges and this problem is easily solved.

Sherman

Re: Another Satellite bubble question
 

i thought he was really good until i saw him hu vs shaundeeb.

zing!

Re: Another Satellite bubble question
 

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Guys, given the stack sizes, THAY3R's skill, the skill of other players, and the fact that 3/4 of the players left get a seat...I can't see THAY3R being much less than 70% to get a seat if he folds.

He might even be closer to 75% (even odds). Is KK better than 70-75% against villain's rasing range...I don't have the damn software with me. Someone run some ranges and this problem is easily solved.

Sherman

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I'd say the chances of getting a seat if we fold are closer to 60% at best. You really overestimate the role of skill in this situation I think.

Re: Another Satellite bubble question
 

i think with 10 BB there isn't a player in the world who is good enough to pass up this edge

Re: Another Satellite bubble question
 

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i think with 10 BB there isn't a player in the world who is good enough to pass up this edge

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It doesn't matter how good Thayer is, it matters how retarded his opponents are. If they're bad enough such that shorty's really really likely to bust out without his help, then he doesn't need to call here.

Re: Another Satellite bubble question
 

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i think with 10 BB there isn't a player in the world who is good enough to pass up this edge

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It doesn't matter how good Thayer is, it matters how retarded his opponents are. If they're bad enough such that shorty's really really likely to bust out without his help, then he doesn't need to call here.

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How likely can he possibly be to get his chips in as a worse than 25-75 dog?

Re: Another Satellite bubble question
 

Im never playing a Sat. again, if your supposed to fold here.

Re: Another Satellite bubble question
 

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i think with 10 BB there isn't a player in the world who is good enough to pass up this edge

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It doesn't matter how good Thayer is, it matters how retarded his opponents are. If they're bad enough such that shorty's really really likely to bust out without his help, then he doesn't need to call here.

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Some of the players did strike me as bad. For instance, the SB to my BB last 5 rounds had completed the blind and then folded to my push. He seemed pretty retarded. Also the 2 bigger stacks were recently involved in around a 10k pot with no showdown which made no sense to me.

Re: Another Satellite bubble question
 

The only fold I can find is if this is his first or second push..... ever. Then fold.

Re: Another Satellite bubble question
 

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i think with 10 BB there isn't a player in the world who is good enough to pass up this edge

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It doesn't matter how good Thayer is, it matters how retarded his opponents are. If they're bad enough such that shorty's really really likely to bust out without his help, then he doesn't need to call here.

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This is what I meant by THAY3R's skill edge. Meaning that if his understanding of Sat. Bubble play is far greater than his opponents, this could be a fold.

Re: Another Satellite bubble question
 

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Guys, given the stack sizes, THAY3R's skill, the skill of other players, and the fact that 3/4 of the players left get a seat...I can't see THAY3R being much less than 70% to get a seat if he folds.

He might even be closer to 75% (even odds). Is KK better than 70-75% against villain's rasing range...I don't have the damn software with me. Someone run some ranges and this problem is easily solved.

Sherman

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I'd say the chances of getting a seat if we fold are closer to 60% at best. You really overestimate the role of skill in this situation I think.

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How about this for a better estimate ignoring skill. If THAY3R folds, he will have 13% of the total chips, which is 12% less than the average (expected value) 4 handed. So let's subtract 12 from 75 = 63%.

So, without skill included at all, THAY3R is approximately 63% to make the top 3. Given his reads on his opponents, I'll be generous and add 2% to his edge to make an approximation of 65%.

From looking at some numbers in PokerStove, I'd estimate he is about 73-75% against villain's range (includes all pairs, all aces, all broadway once including Ts and once without).

Given these estimates, it looks like THAY3R's edge is about 8-10% which I think we all would agree merits a call.

Re: Another Satellite bubble question
 

Def call. This isn't very close imo

Re: Another Satellite bubble question
 

tough call, but I feel like you have to call. I feel like your up against the classic AK.

Re: Another Satellite bubble question
 

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i think with 10 BB there isn't a player in the world who is good enough to pass up this edge

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It doesn't matter how good Thayer is, it matters how retarded his opponents are. If they're bad enough such that shorty's really really likely to bust out without his help, then he doesn't need to call here.

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Some of the players did strike me as bad. For instance, the SB to my BB last 5 rounds had completed the blind and then folded to my push. He seemed pretty retarded. Also the 2 bigger stacks were recently involved in around a 10k pot with no showdown which made no sense to me.

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Basically all I was saying is that if they're all being really ridiculously wild, this is a fold.

Re: Another Satellite bubble question
 

Anyone saying this is DEFINITELY ZOMG A CALL. Is so completely wrong. This is entirely dependant upon table conditions.

Re: Another Satellite bubble question
 

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Anyone saying this is DEFINITELY ZOMG A CALL. Is so completely wrong. This is entirely dependant upon table conditions.

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Thank goodness someone else agrees w/me. [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]

Re: Another Satellite bubble question
 

i think that if the big stacks are gonna call too loose on future hands, you should probably call, because you're an a significant disadvantage having to push into them while the other shortstack gets to push into you.

If the big stacks are basically going to fold in then fold because you will get a greater number of correct shove spots than the other shortstack is likely to take.

I agree that Thayer's chance of getting a seat if he folds is fairly close, on one side or the other, to the ~75% equity he has in the pot.

edit: looks like i misread the order of the stacks. i thought it was thayer, big, big, short...

now i'm not sure.