Poker - Luck vs. Skill from a different angle
 

I have no doubts that in the long run poker is a game of skill. I have done a lot of thinking on this question due to having to constantly defend my position from family, friends and even other players who think the game is one of luck.

But, there is one thing that has been eating at me for some time now. Most of the players that I think are among the best players in the world are degenerate action junkies. During High Stakes Poker on GSN last season, the all-star lineup was so obsessed with the prop bets ( what cards would come out on the flop) the producers had to ban the prop bets for the next season, because it slowed down the play and dominated the table talk. TJ Cloutier, one of the greatest tournament players of all time has reportedly lost all his winnings at craps tables. Daniel Negraneu plays high stakes golf against seasoned players despite the fact he is just a beginner at the game. Phil Ivey can regularly be found betting obscene amounts in the High Roller BlackJack Pits. Some of the better players on this forum 'coinflip' at the 10/25 NL tables.

Don't my arguments that poker is a game of skill and one of seeking out +EV situations and grinding out a profit lose some of their weight when the best players in the world seem to be constantly seeking out -EV situations in an attempt to make a quick buck?

Sometimes I feel like someone who's backed a politician who preaches family values only to find that he's been caught snorting blow off a hooker's [censored].

Re: Poker - Luck vs. Skill from a different angle
 

no, the two facts are completely unrelated. why would a handful of players' gambling habits change the nature of the game of poker?

Re: Poker - Luck vs. Skill from a different angle
 

That's like telling them strawberries are healthy, and feeling like your argument is losing weight because a lot of strawberry farmers eat hamburgers often.

Re: Poker - Luck vs. Skill from a different angle
 

What you don't understand is that the prop bets take up less than .5% of their bankroll. It's like normal guys like us betting $5.

Re: Poker - Luck vs. Skill from a different angle
 

I don't know about that. I remember during HSP, when Daniel went stuck to like 600k.

At some point as he was climbing back, he said he was even. Although he was down 150k at the table, he had made the rest with the props.

not quite .5%

Re: Poker - Luck vs. Skill from a different angle
 

[ QUOTE ]
I don't know about that. I remember during HSP, when Daniel went stuck to like 600k.

At some point as he was climbing back, he said he was even. Although he was down 150k at the table, he had made the rest with the props.

not quite .5%

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He meant even for the night. Not bankroll. Believe me, DN has more than 600K in his bankroll. He probably has closer to $5,000,000 if not $10,000,000 in his bankroll.

Re: Poker - Luck vs. Skill from a different angle
 

What you re suggesting( that prop bets are taking some of the best players in the world down and that they are basically bad skill and unfortunante for the other players) is absolutely wrong.

If you watch many touraments you will see many people, who are short stack and desparate for chips will sometimes just push it all in to scoop up the blinds. If it is late into the tournament the blinds may be big enough to get the short stack and the other even, which is extremely fortunate for the short stack. This can also work if it is late into a tournament and everybody is barely playing because they do not want to leave when they are so close to a final table. This could be a great oppourtunity to use the prop bets to enlarge your stack

Another thing that you have not realized that some times prop bets can be used the other way around. Many times I have seen the best players in the world win a tournament by throwing enough chips into the pot to put the short stack all in. Eventually the short stack will realize that the blinds are eating up his stack and call in desparation. The player who had been prop betting usually wins.

Basically many pros use this stratedgy and it is a good one, especially in heads up play. I can not stress enough that you should change your view and plug this into your game.

If any body agrees or not please post and put it up for disscussion.

Re: Poker - Luck vs. Skill from a different angle
 

EDIT: Never mind, I actually don't give a ..

Re: Poker - Luck vs. Skill from a different angle
 

Oooooooooooook, anybody who does give a......?

Re: Poker - Luck vs. Skill from a different angle
 

I heavily discount the play of any poker on TV, especially HSP.

Re: Poker - Luck vs. Skill from a different angle
 

[ QUOTE ]
What you re suggesting( that prop bets are taking some of the best players in the world down and that they are basically bad skill and unfortunante for the other players) is absolutely wrong.

If you watch many touraments you will see many people, who are short stack and desparate for chips will sometimes just push it all in to scoop up the blinds. If it is late into the tournament the blinds may be big enough to get the short stack and the other even, which is extremely fortunate for the short stack. This can also work if it is late into a tournament and everybody is barely playing because they do not want to leave when they are so close to a final table. This could be a great oppourtunity to use the prop bets to enlarge your stack

Another thing that you have not realized that some times prop bets can be used the other way around. Many times I have seen the best players in the world win a tournament by throwing enough chips into the pot to put the short stack all in. Eventually the short stack will realize that the blinds are eating up his stack and call in desparation. The player who had been prop betting usually wins.

Basically many pros use this stratedgy and it is a good one, especially in heads up play. I can not stress enough that you should change your view and plug this into your game.

If any body agrees or not please post and put it up for disscussion.

[/ QUOTE ]

Do you know what a prop bet is? It sounds like you're talking about shortstack play near the end of a tourney, which is completely unrelated.

In response to OP, I know what you mean. BUT, the fact that they make -EV bets at BlackJack, Roullette, etc, doesn't mean they make -EV bets at Poker. Plus, you mention some people who would fit the description of "action junkie," but you don't mention the hundreds of other less famous professionals who don't waste their money in those ways. I'd be pretty surprised if I saw Chip Reese playing craps.

Re: Poker - Luck vs. Skill from a different angle
 

[ QUOTE ]
What you re suggesting( that prop bets are taking some of the best players in the world down and that they are basically bad skill and unfortunante for the other players) is absolutely wrong.

If you watch many touraments you will see many people, who are short stack and desparate for chips will sometimes just push it all in to scoop up the blinds. If it is late into the tournament the blinds may be big enough to get the short stack and the other even, which is extremely fortunate for the short stack. This can also work if it is late into a tournament and everybody is barely playing because they do not want to leave when they are so close to a final table. This could be a great oppourtunity to use the prop bets to enlarge your stack

Another thing that you have not realized that some times prop bets can be used the other way around. Many times I have seen the best players in the world win a tournament by throwing enough chips into the pot to put the short stack all in. Eventually the short stack will realize that the blinds are eating up his stack and call in desparation. The player who had been prop betting usually wins.

Basically many pros use this stratedgy and it is a good one, especially in heads up play. I can not stress enough that you should change your view and plug this into your game.

If any body agrees or not please post and put it up for disscussion.

[/ QUOTE ]omg seriously you wrote this much about "prop bets" when you don't know what prop bets are????

Re: Poker - Luck vs. Skill from a different angle
 

Bullzeye,
Post of the day. You may want to wiki prop bets.

Re: Poker - Luck vs. Skill from a different angle
 

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I heavily discount the play of any poker on TV, especially HSP.

[/ QUOTE ]

I think they do the prop bet crap in the Big Game too. Even when the cameras aren't running. And they can easily win or lose more on the prop betting than the poker. Seems sick to me.

Re: Poker - Luck vs. Skill from a different angle
 

[ QUOTE ]
no, the two facts are completely unrelated. why would a handful of players' gambling habits change the nature of the game of poker?

[/ QUOTE ]

Why do you think the NBA and the NFL care about their players off the field activities? Because it reflects badly on the game. Poker exploded because of TV and stars were created. Most of these stars are also degenerate gamblers. Now we are in position where we are trying to get something like a carve out for poker from the online gaming bill and should we have someone like Mike Matasow as a spokesman?

Re: Poker - Luck vs. Skill from a different angle
 

Deleted

Re: Poker - Luck vs. Skill from a different angle
 

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[ QUOTE ]
no, the two facts are completely unrelated. why would a handful of players' gambling habits change the nature of the game of poker?

[/ QUOTE ]

Why do you think the NBA and the NFL care about their players off the field activities? Because it reflects badly on the game. Poker exploded because of TV and stars were created. Most of these stars are also degenerate gamblers. Now we are in position where we are trying to get something like a carve out for poker from the online gaming bill and should we have someone like Mike Matasow as a spokesman?

[/ QUOTE ]this post did not once discuss luck vs. skill of poker. what is your actual point here?

Re: Poker - Luck vs. Skill from a different angle
 

[ QUOTE ]
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no, the two facts are completely unrelated. why would a handful of players' gambling habits change the nature of the game of poker?

[/ QUOTE ]

Why do you think the NBA and the NFL care about their players off the field activities? Because it reflects badly on the game. Poker exploded because of TV and stars were created. Most of these stars are also degenerate gamblers. Now we are in position where we are trying to get something like a carve out for poker from the online gaming bill and should we have someone like Mike Matasow as a spokesman?

[/ QUOTE ]this post did not once discuss luck vs. skill of poker. what is your actual point here?

[/ QUOTE ]

He (probably) means that if the top-players of poker gamble, everyone will think that every poker-player gambles. And therefore Poker will be seen as pure gambling.(Wich we dont want)

Re: Poker - Luck vs. Skill from a different angle
 

I know exactly what a prop bet is and no I am not talkin about short-stack play at the end of the tourney.

Re: Poker - Luck vs. Skill from a different angle
 

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I know exactly what a prop bet is and no I am not talkin about short-stack play at the end of the tourney.

[/ QUOTE ]

[ QUOTE ]
Another thing that you have not realized that some times prop bets can be used the other way around. Many times I have seen the best players in the world win a tournament by throwing enough chips into the pot to put the short stack all in. Eventually the short stack will realize that the blinds are eating up his stack and call in desparation. The player who had been prop betting usually wins.

[/ QUOTE ]

No offense, truely, but it sounds like you are not using the term "prop bet" in the normal way. You can not use prop bets to affect your stack in tournament poker.

Example from wikipedia:
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For example, David Grey bet Howard "The Professor" Lederer, a vegetarian due to gastric bypass surgery, $10,000 that he wouldn't eat a cheeseburger. (He did, and won.)

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Short wikipedia article

Re: Poker - Luck vs. Skill from a different angle
 

[ QUOTE ]
He (probably) means that if the top-players of poker gamble, everyone will think that every poker-player gambles. And therefore Poker will be seen as pure gambling.(Wich we dont want)

[/ QUOTE ]would he also say that basketball is a game of pure chance since charles barkley gambles so much?

Re: Poker - Luck vs. Skill from a different angle
 

All he is saying is that it is hard to justify poker as a skill game to those who don't know the difference, when they see top players playing Blackjack and craps.

To those who don't recognize the difference, this would only reinforce the belief that poker is just another form of gambling.

I think.

Re: Poker - Luck vs. Skill from a different angle
 

Entertainment is inherently -EV. Guys who don't play poker have a job, save for retirement and also have a monthly entertainment budget that is used to keep them sane and give them a reason to make money (above the necessities of course).

These pros make a lot of money so their entertainment budget is pretty friggin high.

Besides, being skilled at poker and being a +EV longterm winner doesn't mean you automatically have +EV life money management skills. Just look at the life of who I consider to be the best poker player ever, Stu Ungar.

As a final note, I really believe that money means very little to most of these guys. Money is just chips to them for keeping score of the game. I'm sure a guy like Negranau has given his mom lots of stuff, has socked away a pretty good nest egg and still has lots of bucks to blow away anyway he feels like it. Not to mention he can go back to a poker table any time and replenish.

Re: Poker - Luck vs. Skill from a different angle
 

Thank You B Nation. That's what I was trying to say.

Re: Poker - Luck vs. Skill from a different angle
 

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I know exactly what a prop bet is and no I am not talkin about short-stack play at the end of the tourney.

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If you knew what a prop bet was, you wouldn't ramble on about players losing their bankrolls because they are short-stacked in a tourniment. Look it's OK. I didn't know what one was either until I read these forums on a reg. basis. But it is clear you have it confused w/ SS play.

Re: Poker - Luck vs. Skill from a different angle
 

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I know exactly what a prop bet is and no I am not talkin about short-stack play at the end of the tourney.

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lol

Re: Poker - Luck vs. Skill from a different angle
 

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I know exactly what a prop bet is and no I am not talkin about short-stack play at the end of the tourney.

[/ QUOTE ]

WTF does short-stack play in tourneys have to do with prop betting??

Re: Poker - Luck vs. Skill from a different angle
 

I am a strong believer that poker is a game of luck. I also think that the way you deal with luck is where and how the skill comes to play. The arguement is never ending because by defintion the game is based on probabilities whcih equals chance which equals luck they all mean the same. Below is an extract from a web dictioanary. The argument of luck vs skill is a waste of time:

Luck can be defined as as a chance happening, or as that which happens beyond a person's control. Luck is often regarded as a superstition, but it can be interpreted in many ways.

Luck as lack of control
Luck is that which happens beyond a person's control. This means that luck stands in opposition to one's control, but not to causation. This view incorporates phenomena that are chance happenings, a person's place of birth for example, but where there is no uncertainty involved, or where the uncertainty is irrelevant. Within this framework one can differentiate between three different types of luck:

Constitutional luck, that is, luck with factors that cannot be changed. Place of birth and genetic constitution are typical examples.
Circumstantial luck, that is, luck with factors that are haphazardly brought on. Accidents and epidemics are typical examples.
Ignorance luck, that is, luck with factors one does not know about. Examples can be identified only in hindsight.

Luck as a fallacy
A rationalist approach to luck includes the application of the rules of probability, and an avoidance of unscientific beliefs. The rationalist feels the belief in luck is a result of poor reasoning or wishful thinking. To a rationalist, a believer in luck commits the post hoc logical fallacy, which argues that because something is sequentially connected, it is connected otherwise, as well:
A happens (luck-attracting event or action) and then B happens;
Therefore, A caused B.
In this particuhalar perspective, probability is only affected by confirmed causal connections. A brick falling on a person walking below, therefore, is not a function of that person's luck, but is instead the result of a collection of understood (or explainable) occurrences. Statistically, every person walking near the building was just as likely to have the brick fall on them.

The gambler's fallacy and inverse gambler's fallacy both explain some reasoning problems in common beliefs in luck. They involve denying the unpredictability of random events: "I haven't rolled a six all week, so I'll definitely roll one tonight".

Luck is merely an expression noting an extended period of noted outcomes, completely consistent with random walk probability theory. Wishing one "good luck" will not cause such an extended period, but it expresses positive feelings toward the one -- not necessarily wholly undesirable.

Re: Poker - Luck vs. Skill from a different angle
 

Boy did this thread go far afield. I think OP's original point was valid: that if poker is really skill, rather than luck, isn't it unusual that the very best in the world often have a very degenerate Lets GAAAMBOOOOL ! mentality, just like a family values politician who routinely enjoys the exquisite company of a whoore.

And 600 K is a lot of money to Negreanu. Not nearly as much as to me, but you can't blow it off by saying that its insignificant, like when it came out that Jordan was betting 20 K on a golf match. Negreanu I'm sure has plenty of money, but he does not have "Jordan money." 600 K matters. And that's my point. He is OK with, and can bet huge sums of money that are subject to huge swings of luck and still keep emotional and mental balance.

These guys can excel at a game of skill that has huge variance (READ: short term luck) precisely because they have mastered the skills of the game and in some weird and sick way enjoy riding through the variance.

Finally, don't forget that the first reason anyone is drawn to poker is the lure of huge, easy bucks. These guys are/ were no different. Its just that they were able to master the skills that it actually takes to excel. But there is at least a little gaambooler in any succesful poker player, even Lederer. Otherwise, they'd go crazy when the variance train leaves the building with half their stack.

And yeah, what the Hell does a prop bet have to do with Short Stack play? Please enlighten me.

Re: Poker - Luck vs. Skill from a different angle
 

[ QUOTE ]
He is OK with, and can bet huge sums of money that are subject to huge swings of luck and still keep emotional and mental balance.

These guys can excel at a game of skill that has huge variance (READ: short term luck) precisely because they have mastered the skills of the game and in some weird and sick way enjoy riding through the variance.


[/ QUOTE ]


Disagree Disagree Disagree. The "pros" tilt just like anyone else. Ever watch Sammy, Eli, Negrenu ect...

Pros like Barry, Doyle, and Chip (although he tilts like mad online) are the exception not the rule.

Poker is a luck game. 1 flip of a card 1 way can cost you a 500k pot in some cases. 1 loss of AA v AK all in preflop can cost you the WSOP ME (strasser??) Do not try and tell me poker is not 100% luck. The only skill in poker is trying to manage this luck and try to find the favorable spots. But rarely are you going to find a situation where your all in and better than 70% to win.

Re: Poker - Luck vs. Skill from a different angle
 

I believe the examples you give are different by nature. If two guys bet against each other without rake involved, the expectation is that you break even, so if the sums are irrelevant to their bankrole (and even if they are) - it's even money, at least it's not EV-, so you don't really care.

And you get some TV time -> You become famous pro -> you get sponsoured to play, write books etc.

Golf, etc is also like irrelevant money I believe.

And losing everything on craps - that's called compulsive gambling ;-)

I mean if you want to persuade your mother or friends that poker is skills, take you hands history (hopefully with big #hands and +BB/100h) and show them some math - 2 sigma from the normal distribution; 97% statistical confience whatever (read chapter 1 of Mathematics of Poker) + give them few examples of guys that dropped MIT to play poker and do this for a living and they'll get it, that works at least for me very well ;-)

Re: Poker - Luck vs. Skill from a different angle
 

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Do not try and tell me poker is not 100% luck. The only skill in poker is trying to manage this luck and try to find the favorable spots. But rarely are you going to find a situation where your all in and better than 70% to win.

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There is no such thing as a "professional" in a 100% luck game; nor is there a winrate. Nor would it make any sense to study a game of 100% chance, and strategize. There is no 2+2 forum for coinflipping. I can't claim to know the particular proclivities of each individual pro as intimately as you do, but in a general sense because I know that poker is a game of skill, I know that those players that consistently win over long periods of time are doing so due to a mastery of a skill set. It doesn't matter that they tilt from time to time or make bad calls. What matters is that over the long run they are quite profitable despite their mistakes.

Re: Poker - Luck vs. Skill from a different angle
 

The amount of luck in Poker is very high and the amount of skill is very low, although certain people want to make you believe the opposite is true.

Take Omaha for example. No hand is more than a 3:2 favorite over another hand. This means even if you tried to lose on purpose by pushing all-in with complete trash, in 2 out of 5 cases you would fail to do so and win by accident. That's why Omaha is usually played with a pot-limit structure [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]

So much about luck vs. skill....

Now the other stories about guys like TJ losing at craps or Ivey playing blackjack is totally unrelated. It just shows that compulsive gamblers can be good at poker too.

Re: Poker - Luck vs. Skill from a different angle (Daniel N.)
 

I would venture to say that Daniel N. (being ONE of the best NLHE TOURNAMENT players in the world),and a virtual nobody in CASH High Stakes Poker,has NO-WHERE near the 10MM dollar B/R,implied.His endorsemnets may boost him abit,but there are MAJOR droughts/downsides/traveling costs/etc. that go along with tourney poker that Daniel just might be "trying" to equalize in other arena's??

Have you seen his losses on HSP this/last season to the CASH vets??

Have you heard about his GOLF ability/handicap( and I mean handicap literally)amounting to HUGE losses??

Anybody with that much tourney talent flipping coins,prop betting ,playing a game(golf) for stakes he has NO right playing for,etc,.................there is something wrong there.These "opponents" are trying to beat you at something else,where they CANT beat you at YOUR game!!!

In one of his recent D.N blog's,he started preaching about GOD and POKER in his life............well that says ONE thing for sure...........LOSSES!!!!

Daniel,

If you EVER read this,DONT be a 'jack of all trades,master of none"

You are a PHENOM on the tournament poker circuit.............stick with what got you here.This is coming from an experienced Wall Street trader/hedge fund owner,and is meant as a compliment.Dont fray into uncharted shark infested waters(e.g GOLF)or situations where the outcome(PROP's) are -EV (or maybe EVEN)and out of your incredible poker related tournament talent.

~stephen

Re: Poker - Luck vs. Skill from a different angle
 

Yes, why on earth would anybody spend hours strenuously trying to avoid doing anything -EV then get up, walk across the room and do something they know to be -EV?

Maybe they'll know in the psychology forum.

Re: Poker - Luck vs. Skill from a different angle
 

OP: this correlation between playing poker well and other forms of gambling (often with the worst of it) does not speak to the amount of skill in poker. Unfortunately, it speaks to something much more insidious. Namely, gambling is an addictive drug. As an avid seeker of the best of it I constantly monitor and even worry about this fact. Unfortunately, most players do not. They instead look at losing money on a craps table as a "leak" (i.e., something that costs them money) rather than a sign that they may have or be developing a serious gambling problem.

Very scary stuff. Your family is better off thinking that all gambling is just a game of chance than realizing the truth.