Top 12 Analysis
 

With a couple somewhat surprising eliminations this week, I thought I would write my take on the top 12 and what the eliminations mean for them.

Melinda Doolittle

She is a no-brainer. Obviously, she's the favorite right now. However, the elimination of Sabrina Sloan presents an increased edge for Melinda, IMO. While many said Sabrina had no shot, a few thought she could ultimately give the Melinda/Lakisha battle a run for its money. With this obstacle out of the way, I think she has a slightly increased edge after tonight.

Lakisha Jones

Much of what was said for Melinda applies to Lakisha. She is the obvious 2nd-favorite. The only possible threat in her "class" from below will be Stephanie. Even then, it really isn't close. Because of the remaining girls, the Lakisha/Melinda battle is imminent.

Chris Sligh

One of the favorites among the guys, Chris' edge increased tonight with the elimination of Sundance. Sundance was pretty bad to begin with, but there was always a potential seen by many that he could emerge as one of the front-runners for the guys. I see Chris in a league of his own as I believe Blake and Chris R. will battle for a shared fan base. His only possible threat (and it's small right now) outside of Blake and Chris is Phil, who is a pretty generic singer. See Phil's write up for more detail on why he could be a threat.

Blake Lewis

While Blake is a very likable contestant, he is at risk for an elimination once the dead money (see Sanjaya and Haley) dies off. His fan base has peaked, IMO, and he will need to fight to keep it. He and Chris R. are the only two contestants who share a "cool guy" image and offer somewhat unique performances. Unfortunately, not everyone likes that stuff, so they will be neck and neck for the rest of the way. A slip by Blake combined with an outstanding performance by Chris R. could send Blake packing earlier than expected.

Chris Richardson

Much of what I wrote about Blake applies to Chris. The factor that could put Chris past Blake is his versatility when it comes to vocals. Blake's vocals are OK, but he relies a lot on gimmicks to keep the fans interested. Chris showed last week that he can sing country reasonably well and I don't think the same could be said for Blake. Ultimately, I think Chris R. has the potential to out-sing Blake during the themed song nights.

Jordin Sparks

The only reason I don't place her in the class of Melinda/Lakisha/Stephanie is because she has that "wow, look how great she sings for a 17 (?) year old!" appeal. Furthermore, her style is different than the other three. While she is at the greatest risk compared to the others due to her youth (and presumed inexperience which could subject her to slipping all of a sudden), she has the potential to deliver that "WOW" impact. She may garner some younger votes that Melinda/Lakisha/Stephanie won't be able to.

Stephanie Edwards

Sabrina's early elimination should serve as a warning sign for Stephanie. Unless she can kick it up a notch in the next 2 weeks, she is probably gone. As I've mentioned, her fan base is largely taken by the top 2 divas so her only hope is to find a way to offer something different.

Phil Stacey

This guy has been very inconsistent and has the tendency to appear weird (in a bad way). The only way I can see that he will rise to a "threat" level is if he pulls off a string of great performances during the "weeding out" period (of Sanjaya and Haley). He potentially has 2 weeks to develop a fan base. His style is completely different that Blake/Chris R.'s, so if he miraculously pulls off a couple of good sons where he seems to build up a bit of a fan base, look for him to threaten Sligh.

Gina Glocksen

She's in a league of her own, and whether or not that's a good thing is hard to tell. When she is "herself" like last night, she is likable. When forced to sing certain types of songs, she's probably lost. Even so, she's better than Haley and could last longer due to her "only white girl left" status.

Brandon Rogers

Although I think he's a good singer, this guy should've been gone a couple of weeks ago. He's a mystery really, so it's hard to evaluate his potential. I do think he has potential, but his early performances (which were pretty poor) hurt his chances of developing a fan base. However, much like Phil, I think he has a couple weeks to step it up and contend.

Haley Scarnato

Dead money, as I've alluded to. She has the "attractive white girl" working for her now that Antonella is gone, but lacks any solid singing talent.

Sanjaya Malakar

It pains me to be writing his name in this thread, but he found a way to squeeze into the top 12. Again, dead money. He has virtually no chance of stepping up his singing, so it's all a matter of when his fan base either gives up or can't offer enough votes to keep him around.


With all of that said, here is the order of my projected eliminations (mostly in the order given above):

12. Haley Scarnato
11. Sanjaya Malakar
10. Gina Glocksen
9. Brandon Rogers
8. Stephanie Edwards
7. Phil Stacey
6. Blake Lewis
5. Jordin Sparks
4. Chris Richardson
3. Lakisha Jones
2. Chris Sligh
1. Melinda Doolittle

I do think Phil Stacey going out at #7 seems a bit too optimistic, but I see him differentiating himself enough to do so. I think Phil and Brandon at 7 & 9 are interchangeable.

Comments/discussion?

Re: Top 12 Analysis
 

I agree with most of the things you said. I'm personally rooting for the Lakisha/Melinda battle. It'll be like Aretha vs. Whitney. (but not as physically attractive)

Re: Top 12 Analysis
 

is it still top 10 that go on the tour?? that's a big, big thing... can't remember that well, but was a little surprised covais didn't make it last year (he was horrible, but thought he had the support)... me thinks AI would have taken covais over lisa tucker on tour if they had the choice (suggesting votes are NOT tweaked)

Re: Top 12 Analysis
 

you are pretty well right on.....unforunatly i think sanjaya(ouch, it hurts me too.) may go deeper than you think, if the votes are for real, because he seems to have some sort of convaluted following....no idea why , unless his voters are mistaking him for one of the girls...

Re: Top 12 Analysis
 

Thing - vn breakdown thanks for it.

[ QUOTE ]
12. Haley Scarnato
11. Sanjaya Malakar
10. Gina Glocksen
9. Brandon Rogers
8. Stephanie Edwards
7. Phil Stacey
6. Blake Lewis
5. Jordin Sparks
4. Chris Richardson
3. Lakisha Jones
2. Chris Sligh
1. Melinda Doolittle

[/ QUOTE ]

This feels pretty solid to me, although I would rate (unfortunately) Gina higher, and Phil (who is just godawful) lower, below Brandon.

I know Melinda is the favorite right now by any metric but... yeah you never know...

-Al

Re: Top 12 Analysis
 

Wow... Great post!!! I agreed with just about everything you said in your breakdowns. It's so hard to predict where everyone will fall because one forgetable performance (like Sabrina's last week, I forgot what she sang after the show) can get a relatively talented singer booted before the likes of the dead $$. So, I can't say how good your top 12 is. I can't really see anything I could argue against happening though.

Seriously, Thing. VNH!!! Best post I've read this season.

Re: Top 12 Analysis
 

Is that legal?


[ QUOTE ]
Phil Stacey

His style is completely different that Blake/Chris R.'s, so if he miraculously pulls off a couple of good sons where he seems to build up a bit of a fan base, look for him to threaten Sligh.


[/ QUOTE ]

Re: Top 12 Analysis
 

I just saw Sligh went to Bob Jones U, and the Yahoo! website called him a devoted Christian. I have the sense that this year will turn into a referendum on a lot of political things, and Sligh will make it far.

Re: Top 12 Analysis
 

I think people continue to underestimate Haley. Yeah, she isnt as good of a singer as melinda, but she is the last good looking white girl. I would be more nervous to back a boderline black girl this week simply because they could be sharing alot of the same voters while there is a portion of the voting population that will now throw their weight behind haley.

Not to mention haley is capable of having a good night which would make her virtually a lock to stay.

Re: Top 12 Analysis
 

primetime, agreed. If she does pull off a good night, she will be in a decent position.

With that said, she's not a good singer. Hell, Simon didn't even know her name (although I think some/all of that was an act on his part). The constant criticism by the judges is a sign that she will be sent packing soon. I think, at best, she goes out #10.

Re: Top 12 Analysis
 

[ QUOTE ]
Is that legal?


[ QUOTE ]
Phil Stacey

His style is completely different that Blake/Chris R.'s, so if he miraculously pulls off a couple of good sons where he seems to build up a bit of a fan base, look for him to threaten Sligh.


[/ QUOTE ]

[/ QUOTE ]

Damn, it won't let me go back and edit it. Although if he finds a way to steal some kids and claim them as his own, he will probably build up some recognition.

Re: Top 12 Analysis
 

[ QUOTE ]

Damn, it won't let me go back and edit it. Although if he finds a way to steal some kids and claim them as his own, he will probably build up some recognition.

[/ QUOTE ]

Well he did say he had long hair before "I had to cut it when I joined a group." Child-stealing cult member????? [img]/images/graemlins/wink.gif[/img]

Re: Top 12 Analysis
 

Could your analysis be any more racist?

Re: Top 12 Analysis
 

I think forist the deadweight will go first, Sanjaya and haley. Then the men will go one by one with chris sligh left. the final 3 will be lakesha, melinda and chris S. he final 2 will be lakeshia and Melinda. And Melinda takes it home.

Sabrina would have made it deep if the voters were not blind or listened to simon, who is rarely wrong.( Simon didn't like taylor and it is obvious that he will not be that successful after his winning.)

Re: Top 12 Analysis
 

This is a gambling forum. If a poster believes race is a factor in the voting I hope the poster can do this without being accused of racism. In fact, it would be stupid to not consider it since we all know it exists.

Re: Top 12 Analysis
 

[ QUOTE ]
This is a gambling forum. If a poster believes race is a factor in the voting I hope the poster can do this without being accused of racism. In fact, it would be stupid to not consider it since we all know it exists.

[/ QUOTE ]

QFT.

Re: Top 12 Analysis
 

thing have no idea what QFT stands for are you agreeing or disagreeing geez i hate acronyms and couldn't find it anywhere.lol

Re: Top 12 Analysis
 

[ QUOTE ]
Could your analysis be any more racist?

[/ QUOTE ]

What was racist about his comment? The fact that he said "black" instead of African American?

People love calling other people racists for no good reason these days. You just throw it out there and offer no evidence to support your accusation. That's BS, back up your claim right now or retract it entirely.

What was racist about his post?

Re: Top 12 Analysis
 

[ QUOTE ]
thing have no idea what QFT stands for are you agreeing or disagreeing geez i hate acronyms and couldn't find it anywhere.lol

[/ QUOTE ]

Quite fudge-caking true.

Re: Top 12 Analysis
 

Or Quoted For Truth.

Re: Top 12 Analysis
 

[ QUOTE ]
Or Quoted For Truth.

[/ QUOTE ]

Ha, is that realy what it means?

The first time I saw it, "quite f**king true" just instantly popped into my head and made perfect sense that time and everytime since.

Am I the only one who thinks this is the real meaning?

Re: Top 12 Analysis
 

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Or Quoted For Truth.

[/ QUOTE ]

Ha, is that realy what it means?

The first time I saw it, "quite f**king true" just instantly popped into my head and made perfect sense that time and everytime since.

Am I the only one who thinks this is the real meaning?

[/ QUOTE ]

It means quoted for truth but I've also always used your definition of it, which I like much better.

In any case, this was a good (and not racist) post by thing with some nice breakdown. Honestly I think Haley is gone this week but it could be Brandon or Phil. Sanjaya is this year's gimmick act, which in the past has gotten down to the top 7 or so each time. Besides that you are spot on about a lot of things. I might expand on a post about what I think before the next show.

Re: Top 12 Analysis
 

Excuse me if this is racist, but I don't expect the four black girls to all outlast both whiteys. Stephanie will be gone at least a month before Gina. And if Simon rips Haley a new [censored] again and makes her cry, there is no telling how far she will go.

Re: Top 12 Analysis
 

I just started following closely...WHY is Melinda favored over Lakisha? -- I thought Lakisha was better.

Re: Top 12 Analysis
 

They are both very good. I think most people agree that Melinda's performances have been slightly better (at least) so far. Also, whether or not this becomes a factor, I think Melinda's image is slightly more appealing.

Re: Top 12 Analysis
 

Not a bad order of elimination. I can easily see Sligh as the final guy. I would move Stephanie down and Gina up, though. Glocksen may surprise you. I also don't think you're giving Blake enough credit. It really does seem he's being pimped more than any other guy, and he's getting a lot of good press on the internets.

I can easily see the top 3 being Sligh, Blake and Melinda.

Re: Top 12 Analysis
 

[ QUOTE ]
he final 2 will be lakeshia and Melinda.

[/ QUOTE ]
This seems pretty unlikely because they are too much alike. When crunch time comes they will discover they have the same fan base and one will be out. The survivor then inherits all the loser's fans and becomes the favorite to win it all.

Re: Top 12 Analysis
 

[ QUOTE ]
Phil Stacey

This guy has been very inconsistent and has the tendency to appear weird (in a bad way). The only way I can see that he will rise to a "threat" level is if he pulls off a string of great performances during the "weeding out" period (of Sanjaya and Haley). He potentially has 2 weeks to develop a fan base. His style is completely different that Blake/Chris R.'s, so if he miraculously pulls off a couple of good sons where he seems to build up a bit of a fan base, look for him to threaten Sligh.

[/ QUOTE ]
I don't think Phil has two weeks to develop a fan base. I think he has 2 days to come up with something good or it's over.

The girls are much stronger than the guys. Melidna, LaKisha, and the rest are going to pull a lot of votes away from the men, many more than the guys manage to pull back. The bottom girls are still here because they managed to pry a few votes away from the divas. They have already experienced diva pressure and are not likely to fall as far as the bottom guys when the two sides combine.

Add in Diana Ross and I don't see a girl leaving this week unless someone screws up badly.

Phil needs to find a guy he can beat and I doubt it's Sanjaya. Sanjaya's fan base seems more loyal and less likely to vote for a girl this week.

[ QUOTE ]
Sabrina's early elimination should serve as a warning sign for Stephanie. Unless she can kick it up a notch in the next 2 weeks, she is probably gone. As I've mentioned, her fan base is largely taken by the top 2 divas so her only hope is to find a way to offer something different.

[/ QUOTE ]
Stephanie is in a bind and there is probably nothing she can do about it. She could step her game up a lot and not be rewarded with many votes because Melinda and LaKisha have her potential audience locked up. Stephanie is in real danger of being the next girl out.

[ QUOTE ]
Haley Scarnato

Dead money, as I've alluded to. She has the "attractive white girl" working for her now that Antonella is gone, but lacks any solid singing talent.

[/ QUOTE ]
Gina turned her entire situation around with one good performance and Haley could too. Unlike Stephanie, Haley is alone in her niche and there are lots of people who would vote for her if she improved a little.

Re: Top 12 Analysis
 

[ QUOTE ]

I don't think Phil has two weeks to develop a fan base. I think he has 2 days to come up with something good or it's over.

The girls are much stronger than the guys. Melidna, LaKisha, and the rest are going to pull a lot of votes away from the men, many more than the guys manage to pull back. The bottom girls are still here because they managed to pry a few votes away from the divas. They have already experienced diva pressure and are not likely to fall as far as the bottom guys when the two sides combine.

Add in Diana Ross and I don't see a girl leaving this week unless someone screws up badly.

Phil needs to find a guy he can beat and I doubt it's Sanjaya. Sanjaya's fan base seems more loyal and less likely to vote for a girl this week.

[/ QUOTE ]

Agreed. My views on this have changed somewhat after reading the post about the actual vote ranking. However, despite the sympathy voting for Haley, she still garnered less votes than Phil (if that list is correct). Brandon was also very close to Phil, and all he needs is one of his "typical" performances, and he could be gone.

[ QUOTE ]

Stephanie is in a bind and there is probably nothing she can do about it. She could step her game up a lot and not be rewarded with many votes because Melinda and LaKisha have her potential audience locked up. Stephanie is in real danger of being the next girl out.

[/ QUOTE ]

I agree with most of that, but I don't think she's the next girl out. Despite the sharing of fan bases with the top divas, she (and Gina) have both shown to be more popular than Haley. I just can't see Haley singing well enough all of sudden to overcome others' popularity.

[ QUOTE ]

Gina turned her entire situation around with one good performance and Haley could too. Unlike Stephanie, Haley is alone in her niche and there are lots of people who would vote for her if she improved a little.

[/ QUOTE ]

Agreed, but I just don't see it happening. I also see Gina totally messing up a song that doesn't fit the style she established this past week, but I don't think it'll kill her just yet.

Re: Top 12 Analysis
 

Updated list to take into account after-the-fact voting info. and other random information:

12. Haley Scarnato
11. Phil Stacey
10. Sanjaya Malakar
9. Stephanie Edwards
8. Brandon Rogers
7. Gina Glocksen
6. Jordin Sparks
5. Chris Richardson
4. Blake Lewis
3. Lakisha Jones
2. Chris Sligh
1. Melinda Doolittle

I'm seriously HOPING Sanjaya goes out by #10. After reading someone's comment about the producers trying to push Blake as a "winner," I think that's enough to give him an edge over Chris R. I hope it doesn't push him past Sligh though, because Sligh is clearly a better singer.

Re: Top 12 Analysis
 

I don't think Sligh makes it that far. His singing is ok, but he doesn't connect with the audience well and I don't think he has added to his fan base since the auditions (for which he did a lot of preparation and strategizing).

Re: Top 12 Analysis
 

StellarWind - some nice input, thanks for it.

[ QUOTE ]
Agreed. My views on this have changed somewhat after reading the post about the actual vote ranking. However, despite the sympathy voting for Haley, she still garnered less votes than Phil (if that list is correct). Brandon was also very close to Phil, and all he needs is one of his "typical" performances, and he could be gone.

[/ QUOTE ]

Now having seen the "actual votes" - I feel pretty comfortable with my line of B3 = Haley / Phil / Brandon, with Phil gone.

Phil doesn't have it in him to give the above-average performance to keep him around. I would say another problem facing Brandon is voter overlap, because my guess is he shares potential voting base with Melinda / Lakisha / Stephanie.

I don't have money on Stephanie (and see her being gone soon also, for reasons cited by Thing and Stellar), but I hope it is not this week, I like her.

-Al

Re: Top 12 Analysis
 

[ QUOTE ]
I would say another problem facing Brandon is voter overlap, because my guess is he shares potential voting base with Melinda / Lakisha / Stephanie.

[/ QUOTE ]

good point on brandon perhaps really being harmed by bringing men and women together.... might pick up some jared voters, but not sure how many there were....

Re: Top 12 Analysis
 

I agree on Brandon suffering at the hands of Melinda.

But I don think Phil has some good performances in him. In fact he did pretty well (for a guy) the first two weeks.

Whoever goes home, I hope it's a shocker.

Re: Top 12 Analysis
 

[ QUOTE ]
Whoever goes home, I hope it's a shocker.

[/ QUOTE ]

when people look at last year and betting success, they usually talk about riding taylor/elliott up and daughtry down (ace too).. and then maybe daughtry's "surprise" elimination, although i think DI had him going...

but one way there were good picks last year was eliminations seemingly coming out of nowhere.... llabb's call on mandisa at 30-1 (???) was excellent... might be early for that as seems like one of phil, hayley and brandon are very likely to go this week... once one or two of them are gone (and i sense brandon's had some momentum), then i'd say you can look for the 30-1 elimination (thinking sligh)... anyone else you like for surprise elimination? i'm thinking stephanie too. i can barely remember her during the downtime.

trying to remember who mandisa went home "instead" of, bucky????

Re: Top 12 Analysis
 

[ QUOTE ]

trying to remember who mandisa went home "instead" of, bucky????

[/ QUOTE ]

you may be right on this.

Re: Top 12 Analysis
 

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]

trying to remember who mandisa went home "instead" of, bucky????

[/ QUOTE ]

you may be right on this.

[/ QUOTE ]

i checked dialidol.... and no real pattern... probably have to see the odds from last year.... i think it was bucky.

Re: Top 12 Analysis
 

[/ QUOTE ]trying to remember who mandisa went home "instead" of, bucky????

[/ QUOTE ]

Well Bucky outlasted her, but he wasn't in the bottom three that week (it was country week and he did pretty well plus had the pimp spot). I know that it was Mandisa and Elliott in the bottom two.

Re: Top 12 Analysis
 

[ QUOTE ]


[/ QUOTE ]trying to remember who mandisa went home "instead" of, bucky????

[/ QUOTE ]

Well Bucky outlasted her, but he wasn't in the bottom three that week (it was country week and he did pretty well plus had the pimp spot). I know that it was Mandisa and Elliott in the bottom two.

[/ QUOTE ]

i was thinking the odds though.... and i think the 30-1 odds were pre-show.

thanks for the HU on elliott in bottom 2

Re: Top 12 Analysis
 

the week mandisa went home. Based completely on my memory
bucky +150
ace +300
yamin +230
paris +900
mandisa +2400

this was after dial had mandisa at the bottom. I remember this week pretty well I didnt think mandisa would go home but there was so much value at WSEX and I was able to put a huge chunk of my WSEX bankroll on mandisa because I could arb my bet at tradesports, where everyone in the chat was mentioning mandisa being at the bottom of dial idol. Hated those people but it helped me that week.

Dont expect this value again, because people understand dial a lot better now.