OT - settle a bet
 

I made a bet a while back with someone that the first person to be playing 10/20 NL would owe the other person $500. This was meant as a consolation prize and just to add a little fun/competition to our cash quest. We set out bankroll rules to follow, including withdrawals, and were allowed to play lower, but not higher.

Some time went by, and we both suffer from some combination of not being great or not being lucky so at this point neither of us are close based on the rules.

Tonight after a couple of ridiculous beats by freakin morans in 2/4 I had the thought that I'm sick of poker and should tilt up and either win big or quit. I've had that thought before, as I'm sure most of us have, but have never acted on it. This time I looked at the 10/25 game and saw that I've played with 2 out of the 3 people and one of them was bad. Then the one that wasn't bad left.

No real trip report on the game. I played 120 hands and won $721. Over those hands I played with 6 different players and a couple of them might have been good and a couple of them sucked very badly. I don't want to encourage people to play over their rolls, but I don't think it's that rare for people to tilt up, and unlike me, many of them may not be even trying to play their A game.

There is no bad blood in this decision. The guy I'm betting with says "i mean i think the context of the bet was whoever got to 10/20 as in properly rolled/ beating the game." I replied "I'm going to put it to a vote I think. You shouldn't be more likely to get welshed on just because you are nice." There will be no hard feelings between us either way.

The vote goes without a poll because I'm going to say you need 500 posts to qualifiy for a vote. I don't want this determined by strangers and/or gimmick accts.

I can't find the exact terms of the bet. They are on some backup CD and one of my backup CDs is blank so I don't know if I can find them.

You should either respond "pay" or "don't pay."

After responding pay or don't pay there is an additional choice. This choice will be non-binding, so you should repond to the first choice regardless.

"Play 10/25 until busto or robusto and pay if robusto, not if busto"

The main reason I'm posting this is because I'm kinda hoping you pick the last option. This would only be busto for this site. I have a little over $4k on it. I took all but $600 off line when party kicked me off and then took more off when neteller was in trouble, and this isn't really a huge part of my roll although I'm not sure if I'll reload. I'd probably just play some lower stakes on stars where I have some money.

And I thought I was the responsible one.

edit: Obviously the other reason I posted this is that I wanted to brag about playing 10/25.

Re: OT - settle a bet
 

the bet you initially said was 10/20

you played 10/25.

i need more information before i can make a decision.

Re: OT - settle a bet
 

nice hit playing 10/25
stop playing it
go back to your normal game
dont pay

Re: OT - settle a bet
 

[ QUOTE ]
the bet you initially said was 10/20

you played 10/25.

i need more information before i can make a decision.

[/ QUOTE ]

They don't have 10/20 at this site, but I'd say "same difference."

edit: Also it's already way tl;dr and I don't really have any more info.

Re: OT - settle a bet
 

I'm under 500 posts so I don't have to follow your defined responses... with that said:

It would be pretty stupid for you to lose this bet for decided to take a huge risk at a higher level, why make a bet like this if not to just set a contest for who can advance in stake quicker? You losing here would be like a bet with a stranger where youre just trying to find a loophole to win when you shouldn't.

If you were really asking if you should win for "beating" this level, you clearly broke the rules set out for being properly rolled in 10/20 therefore you shouldn't win either.

The contest should continue...

Re: OT - settle a bet
 

[ QUOTE ]
I'm under 500 posts so I don't have to follow your defined responses... with that said:

It would be pretty stupid for you to lose this bet for decided to take a huge risk at a higher level, why make a bet like this if not to just set a contest for who can advance in stake quicker? You losing here would be like a bet with a stranger where youre just trying to find a loophole to win when you shouldn't.

If you were really asking if you should win for "beating" this level, you clearly broke the rules set out for being properly rolled in 10/20 therefore you shouldn't win either.

The contest should continue...

[/ QUOTE ]

I'm not sure I follow, but I think you are mixing up who has to pay. I would have to pay for playing 10/25, so playing 10/25 and "winning" the bet would mean I pay him.

Re: OT - settle a bet
 

you werent at the proper BR, you were tilting - either of you could have immediately moved to 10/20, but that wasnt in the guidelines of the bet, thus, you dont get paid

Re: OT - settle a bet
 

Don't pay.
Stop tilting.
Play whatever limit you are comfortable with. If it bores you, move up. If it scares you, move down. If you want to play under-rolled, well that's a personal choice.

Re: OT - settle a bet
 

Oh.. yeah you didn't get to 10/20 properly rolled, and that is such a small sample that you also can't say you are beating that game either. Definitley do not pay, go back to 2/4 and continue the contest.

Re: OT - settle a bet
 

Definitely don't pay

The spirit of the bet was that the first who could beat 10/20, as in make in their main game, would pay the other one. Taking a shot one night at 10/20 clearly does not qualify anymore than a fish playing 2 $1050 SNGs saying that he is a $1k SNG regular. Until you play 10/20 every day you haven't "made it" to 10/20. Even the other member of the bet defined it as "i mean i think the context of the bet was whoever got to 10/20 as in properly rolled/ beating the game." You clearly can't claim to be beating the game until you have a large sample with a stastically significant win rate, which you haven't come close to assembling.

I also think the second option is not close either when I say do not play 10/20 until busto or robusto. Anyone who is playing $2-4 regularly has little chance at a normal 10/25 game in the long run. I don't mean this as a personal attack in any way, i just don't think any $2-4 regular (whether it be me, curtains, or you) who isn't absolutely crushing the tables (which is probably none since they would move up) has a shot against significantly better competition. Sure, you might find some soft tables once in a while but the poker limits are very good at finding their skill equilibrium even if it doesn't always feel like it. Honestly I would put your chances, my chances, or any $2-4 regulars chances of going robusto at 10/25 at <1%. Cash out the money and buy something nice for your wife and/or kids instead.

Re: OT - settle a bet
 

smart man newt buggs, smart man.

Re: OT - settle a bet
 

Of course you don't win the bet. The spirit of the bet seems to be "when 10/20 is your main game." Otherwise it would just be a race to the 10/20 table for a few orbits after the bet was booked.

Re: OT - settle a bet
 

[ QUOTE ]
Of course you don't win the bet. The spirit of the bet seems to be "when 10/20 is your main game." Otherwise it would just be a race to the 10/20 table for a few orbits after the bet was booked.

[/ QUOTE ]

It's a reverse bet. The first one to 10/25 pays the other person.

Bones, I thought everyone was going to say "play 10/25 until busto or robusto." If even you won't say that, then I definitely won't.

Re: OT - settle a bet
 

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Of course you don't win the bet. The spirit of the bet seems to be "when 10/20 is your main game." Otherwise it would just be a race to the 10/20 table for a few orbits after the bet was booked.

[/ QUOTE ]

It's a reverse bet. The first one to 10/25 pays the other person.

Bones, I thought everyone was going to say "play 10/25 until busto or robusto." If even you won't say that, then I definitely won't.

[/ QUOTE ]

Oops. Nah, I'd just consider this a tilting thing and not really in the spirit of the bet.

Re: OT - settle a bet
 

dont pay, dont play 10/25 until you're rolled for it.

Re: OT - settle a bet
 

grunch

bet is still on, nothing has changed unless the $700 allows u to move up there within the bankroll requirements set out in the initial discussion.

Yugoslav

Re: OT - settle a bet
 

don't pay.

If you must tilt up, go higher than 10/25.


100/200 till busto or robusto.

Re: OT - settle a bet
 

don't pay.

i don't understand the second half of what you're asking.

Re: OT - settle a bet
 

micro,

Oh wait...can I change my answer to whatever outcome means that you have to pay out?

Yugoslav

Re: OT - settle a bet
 

The fact that the $500 is a consolation prize clearly illustrates, to me, that the idea is you're consistently playing 10/20. tilt obviously != consistent play. I'd just consider myself lucky that the dude I bet with isn't a complete dick.

Re: OT - settle a bet
 

obv dont pay

Re: OT - settle a bet
 

1) dont pay obv
2) dont play obv

Re: OT - settle a bet
 

don't pay.

play your regular stakes.

Re: OT - settle a bet
 

[ QUOTE ]
1) dont pay obv
2) dont play obv

[/ QUOTE ]

Re: OT - settle a bet
 

1. I was going to say that unless we know the specifics of the bet, how can we possibly make this decision? Then I read Newt's post and it makes complete sense. Don't pay.

2. Move up when you are ready and rolled to move up. Taking shots at higher limits is cool when you have some extra money, especially if you know the game is soft. Otherwise, why piss money away?

Re: OT - settle a bet
 

If I understand this correctly I think you should not count the $721 towards being properly rolled to play 10/20, and let the bet continue until one of you reach 10/20 (or 10/25) when you are properly rolled.

Re: OT - settle a bet
 

Ok, I guess I won't pay, yet, and probably won't play. This all goes to show how personal BR rules are though. Busting out would not be a huge deal for me now and would likely be the best thing for me. Assuming some things go as I hope, I'm about to start a new business and I'm confident that I could be successful at it, but only if I really work my ass off at first. Playing poker might be a costly distraction especially with poker not being what it used to be.

Newt, the under 1% thing is crazy. I can't understand how you can't be more confident. You are a first born aren't you? Yes, poker has a way of putting people in their places, but why in the world would your place be where you are now? When I was playing the $22s I was about 50% sure that I could have beaten the $215s at that time. In hindsight, I'm about 90% certain that I could have beaten them at that time. If someone gave you a roll for 10/25 and had you play it, I'd bet on you even money. I don't think it would be a slam dunk, but I'd make the bet. If someone wants to give me 100 to 1 on it, then I'll back you for 10/25 in order to make that bet.

Re: OT - settle a bet
 

this bet seems kinda arbitrary.. i mean i think there should be some kind of guideline.. like first to hit 50k in their account and 20k hands of 10-20 or something.. also i really hate reverse bets.. unless ur both huge tilt monkeys that take lots of shots.. mainly because it discourages you to play higher when you might be ready or see a good game because u fear ull have to shell out 500 extra bones. i dno, i wouldnt pay him because again, u were taking a shot. if you bought in for 400 and ran it up to 900 would you pay him and break even?

Re: OT - settle a bet
 

im saying that he doesnt owe you... it sounds pretty clear that the motivation behind the bet was to get you guys to become 10/20 regs and that it was not one of those prop bets that gets worded trickily to ones benefit. i mean if the bet was just to play in a 10/20 game, one of you could have sat in a 10/20 game for 1 hand the second you made the bet... doesnt sound like that would have been in the spirit of the agreement. this is a dumb bet to begin with because theres definitely a ton of situations where i would not know whether someone wins the bet or not (eg guy with 20 bi roll thinks thats enough to be 10/20 reg, etc.), but i think in this situation it is pretty clear you shouldnt get paid.

also, i dont entirely get why youre trying to busto an account, or at least play for your case 4K with so much variance... youre responsible though, so i doubt youd be doing this if bustoing the account was really a big deal, but make sure you at least think about this rationally... busto threads make me sad. [img]/images/graemlins/frown.gif[/img]

edit: obv i didnt realize it was a reverse bet... dont pay still stands...

and your logic behind bustoing your account is ridiculous... you think it would be best because poker would distract you... ummmm cash it out then?

Re: OT - settle a bet
 

It was just a fun bet. No one was going to not play a higher level to avoid $500. There is logic to either quickly playing a level where the money matters or going busto and doing something else and while I've generally been nitty on BR, I'm not allergic to a high RoR if I think I am +EV.

I'm definitely going to be more aggressive than the terms of our bet, which were moving up at 100 buyins and taking 30% of profits out of the BR each month. Either that or I'll get too busy and not worry about it.

Next time I get there, I'll pay for sure. I'd pay this time if the dude had said I should. I just wanted to make sure he wasn't being penalized for being nice.

Most people don't gamble, but for gamblers, poker players are generally very nitty and I've been no exception in poker. But as far as other gambles go, like starting a business or buying income property, which I've done before, people generally have much much higher risk of ruin and often a much lower expected return.

Re: OT - settle a bet
 

[ QUOTE ]
When I was playing the $22s I was about 50% sure that I could have beaten the $215s at that time. In hindsight, I'm about 90% certain that I could have beaten them at that time.

[/ QUOTE ]
When I was playing the $22s/33s I probably could have made a marginal winning at the $215s too. There was one big difference between then and now though: back then I was crushing the smaller stakes games. Now I'm beating smaller stakes cash games for a decent amount, but nothing near an equivalent to the 20 something % ROI I was pulling in the lower buyin SNGs when I first started out in SNGs.

Okay, the <1% was still probably an exageration especially since I have no experience playing that high, and i'm sure there are still plenty of donks in 10/20. I suspect that the skill difference between each level between 2/4 and 10/20 would quickly eat up a modest win rate at 2/4 though. Like if you lose 1-2 bb/100 over your previous win rate each time you move up you will probably be breaking even at best if you jump all the way up to 10/20.

Re: OT - settle a bet
 

Don't pay yet, don't play. FWIW, raptor and newt are right. raptor is right about defining the bet and newt about everything else.