2/5 Live - Huge Draw 700bb\'s deep
 

I've been playing at Caesar's (Indiana) for about two and a half hours before this hand comes up. My image at the table is very tight. The only hands I've shown down so far have been AK, AQ, & KK twice. The villain's name is Joe, who is supposed to be one of the better regulars there? He's an older well mannered guy who likes to straddle to $15 on the button a lot. We're playing 5 handed and I get Q [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] K [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] UTG and make it $20 to go (my standard raise). Everybody folds to Joe who calls quickly in the BB.

FLOP: 8 [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] T [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] J [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] (Pot: $42)

Joe leads $30 into me, I think for about 10 seconds and make it $100 to go. He thinks for a few seconds and calls.

Turn: K [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] (Pot $242) *EDIT*

Joe thinks for a few seconds and leads for $300. At this point I have about $3400 left infront of me and he covers. Hero?

*EDIT* Just realized I [censored] up. The turn was the K not Q of hearts. Sorry.

Re: 2/5 Live - Huge Draw 700bb\'s deep
 

i think doing anything but call is not great.

what does a $300 bet mean at this table? this is pretty crucial. at a lot of live tables, 300 means i have the nuts.

edit: um that was a pretty important edit. its a lot easier for him to show up with AK than with AQ. its still a just call but it changes how much i like some of my outs a LOT because Q9 and AQ are much less likely than AK was on the Q turn.

Re: 2/5 Live - Huge Draw 700bb\'s deep
 

most likely he has a 9

call, hit one of your outs, and get paid

Re: 2/5 Live - Huge Draw 700bb\'s deep
 

FWIW a different regular had lead into for $300 with AJ of hearts into a $220ish pot on the flop after I had 3-bet him pre flop on a naked flush draw on the flop. This is only the second time I've seen an over bet at this table and suspect it is just an effective pot sized bet due to the stack sizes.

Re: 2/5 Live - Huge Draw 700bb\'s deep
 

[ QUOTE ]
i think doing anything but call is not great.


[/ QUOTE ]
yeah

Re: 2/5 Live - Huge Draw 700bb\'s deep
 

I think anything other than a call here is insanity.

Re: 2/5 Live - Huge Draw 700bb\'s deep
 

[ QUOTE ]
most likely he has a 9

call, hit one of your outs, and get paid

[/ QUOTE ]

messed up the OP, edited to reflected that. Sorry.

Re: 2/5 Live - Huge Draw 700bb\'s deep
 

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
most likely he has a 9

call, hit one of your outs, and get paid

[/ QUOTE ]

messed up the OP, edited to reflected that. Sorry.

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Ah

Still call

Re: 2/5 Live - Huge Draw 700bb\'s deep
 

Easy call - seems like an easy river fold if you miss, too. I'm curious what he has with a bet like that - maybe AQ, double gutted on the flop? KJ? Whatever the case, re-opening the action seems wrong.

Re: 2/5 Live - Huge Draw 700bb\'s deep
 

Well I ended up tanking for about 30 seconds and calling. As soon as I call he says, "Is it aces or kings?". I don't say anything, and the river is a 5 [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]. He quickly checks to me. At this point I'm almost certain he does not have a flush as I really do not think he is the type of player who would check a flush to me at this point. Joe has also yet to see me make a single river bet, so what size of bet do people think is best here? The pot is now $842.

Re: 2/5 Live - Huge Draw 700bb\'s deep
 

after that comment? pot to the nearest hundred (so 800), he is more likely to convince himself to look you up after speaking.

if he hadn't of spoken, i'd have bet 600

Re: 2/5 Live - Huge Draw 700bb\'s deep
 

[ QUOTE ]
after that comment? pot to the nearest hundred (so 800), he is more likely to convince himself to look you up after speaking.

if he hadn't of spoken, i'd have bet 600

[/ QUOTE ]

table talk is -ev!

Re: 2/5 Live - Huge Draw 700bb\'s deep
 

turn: call obviously. if somebody can give an argument for raising (or folding???), i'd like to hear it

fold river if you blank off, and he fires, short of a live read

river: i'd probably just pot it. his table talk makes it sound like he wants to call

Re: 2/5 Live - Huge Draw 700bb\'s deep
 

Really sounds like he wants to call. So bet about that amount you can get out of him. 600-800 if you think he is going på pay you off

Re: 2/5 Live - Huge Draw 700bb\'s deep
 

Just call the turn. No need to go deeper than that with this one. Calling and getting a value bet out of him on the river is fine.

Fold a river you whiff.

In the actual hand, $550 river bet gets called almost every time. Make it up to $650 if you have seen him pay off light previously.

Out of curiosity, if you've only shown down 3 or 4 premium starting hands, what were the circumstances that led to you being 700xBB deep? Uncontested pots? Did you cool someone in one of the premium showdowns?

Re: 2/5 Live - Huge Draw 700bb\'s deep
 

[ QUOTE ]

Out of curiosity, if you've only shown down 3 or 4 premium starting hands, what were the circumstances that led to you being 700xBB deep? Uncontested pots? Did you cool someone in one of the premium showdowns?

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I started this hand with about $1400 & UTG covered (max buy in is 1k). UTG makes it $20 or $15 UTG I'm in UTG +1 w/AKs I make it $70 to go. Donkey gambling asian with about $570 cold calls in LP, UTG calls quickly. Flop is K [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] 9 [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] 6 [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]. UTG leads for $300 (over bet) I call, gaming donkey goes all in for $170 more, we both call. Turn is A [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] UTG instantly pushes. I tank forever and call. River is a blank. UTG shows A [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] J [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] & donkey gambling asian shows T [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] 8 [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]

Re: 2/5 Live - Huge Draw 700bb\'s deep
 

johnybeans,

are you folding to a c/r shove?

Re: 2/5 Live - Huge Draw 700bb\'s deep
 

[ QUOTE ]
johnybeans,

are you folding to a c/r shove?

[/ QUOTE ]

I hope not.

Re: 2/5 Live - Huge Draw 700bb\'s deep
 

that would be sick

Re: 2/5 Live - Huge Draw 700bb\'s deep
 

very easy call

Re: 2/5 Live - Huge Draw 700bb\'s deep
 

[ QUOTE ]
johnybeans,

are you folding to a c/r shove?

[/ QUOTE ]

I was thinking in my head it might be sick if I hit my flush and he shoved, but after his "aces or kings?" comment and his quick river check I made up my mind that he did not have a flush. So yes, I would have called a C/R push.

Re: 2/5 Live - Huge Draw 700bb\'s deep
 

thats a lot of bbs to put on a speech read

i dont see any reason he can't have the nuts if he pushes

Re: 2/5 Live - Huge Draw 700bb\'s deep
 

550 would be my default on the river

Re: 2/5 Live - Huge Draw 700bb\'s deep
 

I would shy away from betting 800 on the river. I think the 500-600 range is most likely to get a call.

Re: 2/5 Live - Huge Draw 700bb\'s deep
 

[ QUOTE ]
Well I ended up tanking for about 30 seconds and calling. As soon as I call he says, "Is it aces or kings?". I don't say anything, and the river is a 5 [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]. He quickly checks to me. At this point I'm almost certain he does not have a flush as I really do not think he is the type of player who would check a flush to me at this point. Joe has also yet to see me make a single river bet, so what size of bet do people think is best here? The pot is now $842.

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Bet size comparison.

Pot 842 at river.

Hero stack=3100
Villian stack>3100


Bet[% of his call]
Likely holding(%) 400bet 850bet 1200bet
AQ str(30%) 90% 50% 20%
AK TPTK(50%) 75% 35% 10%
others(20%) 60% 40% 5%

400bet (1/2pot)
400x(0.3x0.9+0.5x0.75+0.2x0.6)=306

850bet (pot size)
850x(0.5x0.5+0.5x0.35+0.2x0.3)=327

1200bet (1.5pot)
1200x(0.3x0.2+0.5x0.1+0.2x0.05)=144

I think the pot size bet is the most valuable bet. Obviously it varies if you change the % based on your judgement on the opponent.

Hong

Re: 2/5 Live - Huge Draw 700bb\'s deep
 

[ QUOTE ]
Well I ended up tanking for about 30 seconds and calling. As soon as I call he says, "Is it aces or kings?". I don't say anything, and the river is a 5 [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]. He quickly checks to me. At this point I'm almost certain he does not have a flush as I really do not think he is the type of player who would check a flush to me at this point. Joe has also yet to see me make a single river bet, so what size of bet do people think is best here? The pot is now $842.

[/ QUOTE ]

I read up to this point and decided to Grunch the rest:
My guess is that he has something like JT or T9/89 for a semi-bluff on the turn.

I'd have to guess that he can beat AA but can't beat KK by his comment -- so I put him on JT [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]

Re: 2/5 Live - Huge Draw 700bb\'s deep
 

I agree jmc, his comment does make it sound like 2 pair (can beat AA but not KK). Which makes a smaller value bet probably better than pot.

EDIT: I put him on KJ [img]/images/graemlins/laugh.gif[/img]

Re: 2/5 Live - Huge Draw 700bb\'s deep
 

[ QUOTE ]
thats a lot of bbs to put on a speech read

i dont see any reason he can't have the nuts if he pushes

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The only nut hand that makes sense for him to have in my mind is A [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] 9 [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], and there's a reasonable chance he just mucks that pre flop OOP. Also, had he just pushed or bet 1.5 x's the pot + I would have had a very tough decision. But I really didn't think he was insta checking the nut flush to me on the river, just my read.