200/400 Check TP HU?
 

Villain is very agressive, and often showdown bound. He also mixes up his play and is capable of purebluff raising often. He is probably a loser in this game though, but I think it's close, as he can run over the more timid players. he isn't too thoughtful, but he likes to intimidate, and push his semi-bluffs and pure bluffs.

Note, villain probably preflop raises around 40%

He likely views me as very nitty, and most likely respects my 3-bet preflop in this hand.

At this point it is 4 handed after the fish in the game left, and I am going to quit at the Big Blind.

Villain raises UTG 4 handed, I 3bet A [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]8 [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] on the button. Everyone else folds, UTG calls.

Flop comes a dry 3 [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]k [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] 6 [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]
Villain check calls.

I think he would checkraise any pair on this flop, the only hands I can put him on now, or somethin like QJ s00ted for a backdoor flush/straight draw, QTs etc, or baby pair.

Turn is A [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] making the board

3 [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]k [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] 6 [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] A[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]


If I bet, he is folding any 22 44 55. He will also fold any gutshot.

Let's say he has a gutshot with QJ and will fold if I bet, but will put another bet in if he pairs up, and will bluff many rivers. Is it ever correct to check behind this turn?

I just can't put him on anything that doesn't fold.
(most of his better aces are capping preflop, and of the worse aces I think he would only peel with A7 so I could be losing value here in theory, but I really feel he doesn't have an ace here often at all.)


(There is also a slight chance he has a monster of 66 or 33, but I think 66 can be discounted slightly cus I think he would cap it often preflop, and he is usualy a fastplayer so he usualy won't wait for the turn with a monster)

So, can checking this turn be right?

Re: 200/400 Check TP HU?
 

What will be his river action with those small pocket pairs if you check the turn? Will he pay you off?

Also, who is villain? Might help since Ive played 200/400 a fair bit and wonder if my assesment of villain would be the same.

Re: 200/400 Check TP HU?
 

in general your opponent can interpret ur check as giving up or as trying to get to sd for cheap. but here, i dont think it matters given this board, and your hand strentgh

checking behind a superior line imo. your opponent will have no choice but to bluff if he has unpaired cards to get u off 77 and if he has a weak pair he very well may check and call ur river bet if the turn is checked thru.

of course, if my opponent was schnieds i would bet so that he can bluff cr me. :P

Re: 200/400 Check TP HU?
 

So the question here is how often you will get an extra bb on the river. I think if half the time he improves to a second best hand or will bluff you should check. In all likelyhood he has approximately a 10% chance of drawing out on you. That means you lose about 0.5bb (pot is about 5bb). Of course these numbers are crude, but this sounds reasonable right?

My questions is what is your planned river action if he bets out? Raise and hope he won't fold his pair or just call?

Re: 200/400 Check TP HU?
 

If he will call you with worse hands then you bet. If he can't have a worse hand to call you with don't bet. You have a read, so you make the play. If your read was off then message board mumbo-jumbo won't make a difference. Also, even if your read was off it still may have been the correct read based on the information you had available and you just got the short end of it.

Re: 200/400 Check TP HU?
 

[ QUOTE ]
Villain is very agressive, and often showdown bound. He also mixes up his play and is capable of purebluff raising often. He is probably a loser in this game though, but I think it's close, as he can run over the more timid players. he isn't too thoughtful, but he likes to intimidate, and push his semi-bluffs and pure bluffs.


[/ QUOTE ]


It is often correct to let AlexSem spew uncontrollably...

Re: 200/400 Check TP HU?
 

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Villain is very agressive, and often showdown bound. He also mixes up his play and is capable of purebluff raising often. He is probably a loser in this game though, but I think it's close, as he can run over the more timid players. he isn't too thoughtful, but he likes to intimidate, and push his semi-bluffs and pure bluffs.


[/ QUOTE ]


It is often correct to let AlexSem spew uncontrollably...

[/ QUOTE ]

lolol this made me laugh out loud in real life.

anyway, i dont think hebluff checkraises the turn much here,

Re: 200/400 Check TP HU?
 

veganmav in the history of limited holdthem, how many times has someone checked that turn and folded to a river bet?

depending on what he has, giving him a free card costs u .25-.5BB if he was folding, the majority of a BB if he was calling, and an xbox360 if he was check-raising. that's a lot to give up to in order to give villain a chance to make a bluff that will never work

Re: 200/400 Check TP HU?
 

"and an xbox360 if he was check-raising."

if he was cring we are very often beat. at least us mere mortals are, tho im aware gehrig has never lost a hand.

Re: 200/400 Check TP HU?
 

[ QUOTE ]
"and an xbox360 if he was check-raising."

if he was cring we are very often beat. at least us mere mortals are, tho im aware gehrig has never lost a hand.

[/ QUOTE ]

i agree, part of the value in my play, is to avoid a checkraise from when he is winning, since he played the flop so strangley in my opinion, he is either folding or checkriasing this turn. if he is checkraising i think he has a monster most of the time.

Re: 200/400 Check TP HU?
 

Assume the river action will always be bet-call if villain improves. How often does villain need to bluff, in order for a check to be correct?

When he holds QJ, he will improve 10 and bet out 10 times. Of these, he will lose one bet 6 times when he catches a Q or J, and win 5 bets 4 times when he catches a T. Same thing in effect with QT. In order to break even with his 4 winners, you need him to bluff 14 times on the end each time he holds one of these two hands. With 44 possible rivers in each instance, his bluff rate needs to be 33% here.

When he holds 22, 44 or 55, he will improve 2 times each and win 5 bets each time. In order to check in this spot, you need him to bluff 10 times every 44 hands. This is about 23%.

If he is equally likely to hold each of the above hands, he needs to bluff more than 27% of rivers for your check to be correct. (If you use a Bayesian distribution of hands, he will hold QJ and QT combined 32 times for every 18 times he holds a small pair. In this case he would need to bluff at least 31% of the time for a check to be correct.)

All of the above assumes you will never win an extra bet on the end when villain checks (either he check-folds a loser or checkraises or check-calls a winner). If this assumption is incorrect, reduce the above bluffing frequencies by one for every time he will check-call with a loser on the end, and by two for every time he will checkraise a loser (assuming you will call the raise).

Best regards,
Jogger

Re: 200/400 Check TP HU?
 

From the situation, he sounds like a loose aggressive right down to the river. Imo, bet, and pray.

Re: 200/400 Check TP HU?
 

I'm not a big fan of a check-behind here.

A check doesn't look much like an aggressively played unpaired hand which is now giving up, as these would likely take another stab at it when the ace hits (which is one reason to also bet the A).

With a smaller pair I don't think we can give a free card, especially given our read that a c/r bluff is very unlikely. So I prefer the one bet I'm willing to put in to go in on the turn.

And at the end of the day a turn check looks so much like a K or QQ/JJ that's looking for a cheap showdown now that the ace fell, so I think a river bluff is unlikely, as is a valuebet with a pair that didn't cap preflop (to get called by what?). And if he does indeed hold a gutshot we're giving a freecard with 4 cards to loose the pot and 6 cards to win a bet, which stinks.

Also a disclaimer - i thought i was browsing the shorthanded forum, i wouldn't usually post in this forum, sry.

Re: 200/400 Check TP HU?
 

My first thought if I was villain was that I would check/raise the river here no matter what I held like almost every time. I'd actually be more likely to bet if I had a K/A and c/r nothing.