AKs flop decision
 

I feel like there's one post per week that's just like this, but no matter what, I still get tripped up in these spots.

Loose, dumb, donkish, aggro, weird Commerce 20/40 game (I know, redundant, etc.).

A passive below-average-playing lady limps in EP. A TAG raises in the hijack. A loose, aggro dude who has been running mad hot all night and 3-betting a lot goes ahead and 3-bets in the CO. I'm on the button and I find A[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] K[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]. I cap it. (Any arguments for a different play?)

EP lady calls 3 more, hijack and CO both call.

4 to the flop for 17SBs.

Flop is T[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] 6[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] 3[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]. EP checks, hijack checks, CO donks.

And I... ?

Re: AKs flop decision
 

call

Re: AKs flop decision
 

Sounds like you want to raise here. Need to know more about CO than just his pf tendencies. Tell more about postflop tendencies and then I might advocate a raise. Main problem will be EP limper and pf raiser, 1 of which will probably call 2 cold.

Re: AKs flop decision
 

I Like a call here we're probably behind at this point and a raise most likely won't get the pot heads or, or even 3 handed. Also a raise might fold a hand like AQ,AJ,KQ,KJ, which could pay us off should we catch on the turn.

Re: AKs flop decision
 

I always have trouble in spots like this too.

My first instinct is to call the flop and then raise a safe turn card (assuming CO bets again), but it depends on how aggro CO is post-flop. IF he could be betting with overcards or a flush draw or something, then I think raising the turn could be good, because if EP or hijack have a ten or something, they might fold the turn to 2 bets cold (even bad players will do this pretty often in a spot like that, I think).

If, however, CO's flop donk means he has at least a pair, I would call the flop with the intention of calling the turn (or possibly folding, depending on the rest of the flop action and the card) if you don't improve...raising the flop isn't likely to get you heads-up anyway, so you might as well see the next card cheaply.

Re: AKs flop decision
 

call

Re: AKs flop decision
 

I think calling is your worst option, and folding is probably the best. You also have no clue what EP and Hijack have or what they are going to do when action gets back to them. I feel very strongly that in great games like this, you are going to find much better spots to get your money in. You could very well get it heads up (maybe with the best hand) if you raise, but why "gamble" in bad spots like this.

Re: AKs flop decision
 

I think raising is bad here - you'll likely only fold out hands you have dominated, or are at least ahead of, and not really improve your chances all that much. Assuming CO's donk means he has something (pair, draw) then you'll probably be better folding. You could easily be drawing dead or very thin, and your outs are pretty dirty. Lots of hands will have redraws on you should you hit your best possible card (non-diamond K) on the turn. If there were any spades in the flop I would call. It's a big pot though, if you knew for sure no one behind you would raise the flop then a peel is probably OK.

Re: AKs flop decision
 

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I think calling is your worst option, and folding is probably the best. You also have no clue what EP and Hijack have or what they are going to do when action gets back to them. I feel very strongly that in great games like this, you are going to find much better spots to get your money in. You could very well get it heads up (maybe with the best hand) if you raise, but why "gamble" in bad spots like this.

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raising here is awful. why on earth would you want to reopen the betting? a better hand will never fold. ugh.

Re: AKs flop decision
 

pot is too big. so both fold/raise are incorrect IMO.

Re: AKs flop decision
 

i don't think raising is as bad as everyone says. actually, i kind of like it.

folding is crazy.

Re: AKs flop decision
 

My automatic non-think play would be to raise here,but it's better to just call,hoping to get a raise in on the turn,imo.

Re: AKs flop decision
 

I think a raise is good if you are very sure that it'll allow you to take a free card on the turn (or that a turn donk after your raise will mean that you are drawing dead and you can fold).

Otherwise I'd just call.

Re: AKs flop decision
 

i think flop raise is quite bad. we can not achieve anything.
pot offers 10:1 after our raise. according to my experience, most players will call any 2 if pot offers better than 8:1. we can not thin field.
our raise is also not for value. we are likely behind. majority of time, we need to showdown best hands to win according to pf action. At least the co will look us up.
intention to take free card is also incorrect imo.

Re: AKs flop decision
 

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i don't think raising is as bad as everyone says. actually, i kind of like it.

folding is crazy.

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Gabe, can you lay out some of the benefits you think raising might have?

And yes, folding didn't really cross my mind much. This decision was between calling and raising.

Re: AKs flop decision
 

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intention to take free card is also incorrect imo.

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Explain? If we call the flop bet and one more player comes along, then I think we'd have to call a turn bet getting nearly 11:1 with overcards, and even more so if the turn is a Q or J (giving us a gutshot). If we are going to call a turn bet, why not save half a bet with a free card play? I suppose that when the turn brings a diamond we'd wish we just saved that SB...

Not that I'm saying that going for a free card here is correct (I think it's pretty player-dependant), I just think that it's correct if we are confident that it'll work.

Re: AKs flop decision
 

goober,

i don't see a free card play working here often...when we get donked into i think its gonna be with the intent to 3bet...remember that we cold capped this preflop and we are still getting bet into, not even sure if JJ/QQ is 3betting us here, so when we get 3bet i think we are pretty [censored], rather see the turn as cheap as possible...

Re: AKs flop decision
 

the reason i think flop raising for free card is incorrect because it's difficult for us to get a free card. too many cards will make our free card intention void.

if flush, q, j, or small cards fall on turn, we are likely being betted into instead of getting a free card.

according to pf action and the description, ep/co are totally unpredictable.

Re: AKs flop decision
 

At this point, I want to give myself the best possible chance to win the pot. By raising, you might lose a player or two, you will likely see two more cards for "free," and you might even have the best hand. Heck, even though it's Commerce, you might even get a better hand to fold, as they'll surely put you on a big pocket pair.

I agree with Gabe (and you) that folding is crazy. By just calling, you're going to be guessing a lot more on the turn too. If you raise here, and now get bet into on the turn, that turn bet will carry a lot more weight.

Re: AKs flop decision
 

With so many callers in the pot on this somewhat drawy board, I would like to call and see the turn before I decide on further action. There is no point jamming up for someone elses fd. Also, you are not protecting your hand at all here. If you call, and raise the turn if you can win with showdown merits, you can go ahead and raise, because at this point you would be offering less odds.

Also, the CO bet may mean something like: I can beat this board, but if I had two diamond overs, I would be betting here.

I don't think that this kind of game is meritous to the free-card play. Apparently people are here to gamble, and that means tripping over themselves to build a nice payday.

Re: AKs flop decision
 

I'm concerned that if we raise CO is going to 3bet a decent amount of the time and lead the turn anyway, which would really suck. An overpair, AT, and two big diamonds all sound like hands an aggro, running hot, guy might b/3b.

Re: AKs flop decision
 

Given that there are 18 bets in the pot, I think that this is an easy raise. What I have trouble understanding is why guys jam an unimproved Ak in smaller pots. Andy gives the best reason for raising.

Re: AKs flop decision
 

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
i don't think raising is as bad as everyone says. actually, i kind of like it.

folding is crazy.

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Gabe, can you lay out some of the benefits you think raising might have?

And yes, folding didn't really cross my mind much. This decision was between calling and raising.

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See Andy's post.

While there might only be a little chance of this or that, a few little chances are all you need in a pot this big.

There's even a little chance that you'll clean up your outs against a runner runner or something.

Re: AKs flop decision
 

Forgive me, I am new to mid-limit and still trying to learn about techniques at these stakes...

Is there any chance the CO has KQ or QJ here? If he is loose aggro AND confident because of recent results, wouldn't he be capable of 3-betting with an unpaired hand preflop?

I think it makes the most sense for him to bet into the guy w/ the lead (you) so that you will raise and thin the field for him. He would want this w/ an overpair, any ten (AT/QTs/JTs?) or any two overcards (maybe), but not w/ a flush draw or a set. With a super-strong hand he would ch/raise, right?

Also, the pot is so big that maybe the donk bet is his own desperate attempt to continue to represent strength where he has none.

I think a raise helps more to define where you are, and the information you get (from the EP players) may allow you to release this hand a little earlier than you otherwise would (saving you money if you are crushed but do hit an A). Also, a raise lets you continue to represent a big pair, and maybe the TAG will release top pair or JJ.

My original question... is there any chance CO has KQ here (making the raise a value play)?

Re: AKs flop decision
 

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My original question... is there any chance CO has KQ here (making the raise a value play)?

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KQ is definitely in his PF 3-betting range for sure. But I doubt he donks this kind of flop into me with it.

Re: AKs flop decision
 

I am also new here, but one thing I know is that keeping the lead in these types of pot's can benefit greatly. So far, CO knows that you have 4bet him PF, that is all he knows, if his range is somewhere along the lines of A10,JJ,QQ,910s,even K10s considering the type of player you describe him ass, if he has half of a brain and you raise him on the flop, his mind may tell him to slow down and u may perhaps have KK AA or 1010.

We must remember what people will know about our hand, the EP's KNOW u 4bet PF, and now are raising the turn, so without a legit shot or draw I think they fold here and thinning the field may work. If it doesnt and they still call, I still believe, considering the history of this hand, that the CO will check to you on the turn if he himself has not got lucky and flopped a set or has AA KK himself.

Hey im probably not entirely correct as I said im new but just thought I'd add some insight in my point of view. I also think calling gives up any chance to win this pot without improvement and relenquishes control to a guy who we know to be a wild player with a range of many hands.

Re: AKs flop decision
 

i dont see raising being any good, i think hes donking because hes looking to b/3b with a monster, especially with that many players. what are you lookin to accomplish with a raise, i guess is the question? no pair folds, no draw folds, he 3b and leads turn, you gotta fold. i think you gotta fold any time he leads the turn anyways, unless you pick up a gutshot that doesnt make a flush.

i guess i call and reevaluate on the turn

Re: AKs flop decision
 

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raising here is awful

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Raising here only makes sense if it thins the field. In this game, that seems very remote, if not beyond consideration.