30/60 Bellagio AJs Take 2
 

THE SETUP: Early in the evening games are weak but not alot of action. An asian woman (who I know very well to be a terrible player. She tilts easily and will usually go off for big loses.) sits to my right. When she arrives at the table she's stuck good, but after a couple suck outs she is soaring. She's up about 3 thousand and is now on reverse tilt thinking the poker gods somehow now favor her.
THE HAND: 7 handed. A local player limps as does the Villian. I find A [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]J [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] and raise, folding the button, the small, and the large blind. Both limpers call flop A [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]A [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]2 [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] every one checks. Hero fires. Limper folds. Villain calls. At this poing literally she could still have any two. I'm serious she could be floating with like some J8 [censored] here. Hoping to make anything. Turn 8 [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] Villain checks. Hero Bets. Villian Check raises. Hero three bets.( pretty standard ehh.) Villian calls. River 6 [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] Villian checks. Hero Bets. Villian Check raises. PUKE. 14 to 1. Whats the play?

Re: 30/60 Bellagio AJs Take 2
 

Er, call? What other play would there be.

Re: 30/60 Bellagio AJs Take 2
 

I'm not sure the turn 3-bet is standard. This will get her to immediately fold a ton of hands you crush. I might just call and let her bet the river on another bluff. For her to call the turn she has to have either the case A or a spade draw, right? I mean is she calling with a dry 8? Doubtful.

So I might be a pwassy and check behind on the river. Hopefully that's not a results-oriented statement.

Anyway, once that flop hits I am never ever folding this hand against her no matter what. Jambony has this one correct -- there's absolutely no other play but call. And expect to lose much of the time.

Re: 30/60 Bellagio AJs Take 2
 

i think the turn 3bet is pretty standard...villain played this hand like most people play an A...our hand beats most aces...

and joker...i highly doubt that you would check behind that river if you had played the hand...

Re: 30/60 Bellagio AJs Take 2
 

[ QUOTE ]
Er, call? What other play would there be.

[/ QUOTE ]

Re: 30/60 Bellagio AJs Take 2
 

I agree with Joker on this one. The turn 3bet is NOT standard at all in my play. I would rather call the turn and river or call turn and bet the river if checked to.

I think that you are giving way to much action on this hand by paying off the river (5BB) with a semi-strong hand. Given that you bloated the pot so much on the turn you might be forced to call the river.

Re: 30/60 Bellagio AJs Take 2
 

She would most certainly call with an 8 here. Once in the pot she was not folding. Also she could have any pocket pair which trust me she's showdown bound with. Againgst a tricker or even regular player I don't mind a little slow play but against this pay off machine it's 3 bet city.

I figured a call on the river would be pretty much standard. However, in the hand I just don't see her bluffing here. Do you? The pots big and she's a Player who really just likes to call. Do you think often enough she could have a weaker ace that's kicker isn't on board.

THE RESULTS: I called she showed Ah6d. Barf!

Re: 30/60 Bellagio AJs Take 2
 

[ QUOTE ]
i think the turn 3bet is pretty standard...villain played this hand like most people play an A...our hand beats most aces...

and joker...i highly doubt that you would check behind that river if you had played the hand...

[/ QUOTE ]

You're probably right about the river.

But as for the turn I think there are more combos of bluffs and draws and weak pairs than there are Aces, since it would have to be the case ace. Based on that I just call the turn and call the river. That sounds weak, but I'm not doing it because I think we're beat -- I'm doing it because I think we make just as much or more when we're ahead and save a lot more when we're behind. (Also, the reason I fear she folds to the turn 3-bet is because in Vegas, unlike L.A., people actually fold).

Re: 30/60 Bellagio AJs Take 2
 

This is true. But also in Vegas people tend not to be as aggresive with draws and Smaller pairs. When she checkraises here i put her on the case. Otherwise i feel she just check calls.

Re: 30/60 Bellagio AJs Take 2
 

Calling the river at this point seems like a no-brainer.

The interesting part of the hand is the turn action. Raising is correct if she has: the case ace with worse kicker or a flush draw. It is incorrect if she is bluffing or has a really weak hand, or if she has a better ace (unlikely, given no pf raise) or a boat already (also probably unlikely). If she has a medium strength hand here (say, an 8 or higher pair) then it depends, right? Given the description of the player, it sounds like she wouldn't fold so it would raising is correct, right? So, is she likely to get tricky with a draw or a bluff here? Sounds like no, although clearly only OP knows. So, does she have a worse ace more often than a better hand? I would imagine so. Doesn't that make 3-balling the turn correct, assuming OP's reads are correct? Certainly, this would be a different play against an unknown or a different player. I think then the call turn c/r, call river/bet if checked to line is more profitable.

Re: 30/60 Bellagio AJs Take 2
 

It's not so much that 3-betting the turn is bad but raising the river is usually better.

Re: 30/60 Bellagio AJs Take 2
 

I think you got to pay off here if you're beat. Most of the time you will be, but since you only have to be good once every 14 times to break even this is a call.

Re: 30/60 Bellagio AJs Take 2
 

[ QUOTE ]
It's not so much that 3-betting the turn is bad but raising the river is usually better.

[/ QUOTE ]

i did consider a line like callign the turn raise and raising the river (hopefully allowing us to fold to a reraise, something we can't do on the turn)...but i think that with the board being all low card a lot of players might raise the turn and then check the river if a scare card comes off...

Re: 30/60 Bellagio AJs Take 2
 

another reason i like 3betting the turn is that the read on villain is that she is on cloud nine thinking her [censored] dont stink and all her hands are golden, this should bring her to call down weaker than most players might...it also might make her put in more action than her hand actually warrants...

Re: 30/60 Bellagio AJs Take 2
 

Although this is true. She will most likely bet the river with any A, and like Nate suggested hero could raise here letting her continue her bluff if thats the case on the turn(as Joker had said while we are still getting max value from the hand if she did have an ace). In addition waiting for the river to raise has an added value if she had a real hand like a flush she would be unlikely to jam us back on the river fearing a full house. On the turn she can 4 bet a flush.

Re: 30/60 Bellagio AJs Take 2
 

The flush didn't fill until the river. 6 [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]

Re: 30/60 Bellagio AJs Take 2
 

oops

Re: 30/60 Bellagio AJs Take 2
 

[ QUOTE ]
oops

[/ QUOTE ]

Even so, waiting until the river can save you a bet if the flush card hits, since you probably no longer have a profitable raise.

Re: 30/60 Bellagio AJs Take 2
 

Call and don't think twice.

Re: 30/60 Bellagio AJs Take 2
 

If this is th eplayer I think it is, she might very well call with a dry 8. Or King High. Or a 7 and a card she can't remember.

Re: 30/60 Bellagio AJs Take 2
 

i normally play the foxwoods 20/40 game but played this game for a week in november. one adjustment I made while I was there was 3betting this turn - something I'd pretty much never do at foxwoods. In this game there seemed to be a lot more of this type of thing with flush draws and worse aces but at FW it's usually a boat.

river is a crying call for me but she certainly doesn't expect you to fold here.

Re: 30/60 Bellagio AJs Take 2
 

She would most certainly call with an 8 here. Once in the pot she was not folding. Also she could have any pocket pair which trust me she's showdown bound with. Againgst a tricker or even regular player I don't mind a little slow play but against this pay off machine it's 3 bet city.

I figured a call on the river would be pretty much standard. However, in the hand I just don't see her bluffing here. Do you? The pots big and she's a Player who really just likes to call. Do you think often enough she could have a weaker ace that's kicker isn't on board.

THE RESULTS: I called she showed Ah6d. Barf!

Re: 30/60 Bellagio AJs Take 2
 

Hi,

I'm the guy who was sitting two seats to your left last night when this hand happened.

Contrary to popular opinion this is a fold against her. It's a fold I'd only make if I was playing really well, but nevertheless it's the correct play. The flush isn't really even much of a concern here. I know I saw the results so I may sound biased, but she has you beat here every time.

Re: 30/60 Bellagio AJs Take 2
 

justin, 3bet turn or call/call?

Re: 30/60 Bellagio AJs Take 2
 

[ QUOTE ]
justin, 3bet turn or call/call?

[/ QUOTE ]

I like the 3bet. It's almost always a worse ace in this spot. 88 she'd raise, 22 is possible, and A8 and A2 are both possible, but A3-AT are much more likely. She is definitely the type to play any ace.

Re: 30/60 Bellagio AJs Take 2
 

Hi, I was 3 to your left in this hand, and you can put me in the fold category as well. However, I told Justin that I also am hardly ever playing well enough to fold against her. Oh well.

Re: 30/60 Bellagio AJs Take 2
 

doug and justin,

what is the strongest hand you are folding here (when "playing well")?

Re: 30/60 Bellagio AJs Take 2
 

AK

Re: 30/60 Bellagio AJs Take 2
 

[ QUOTE ]
doug and justin,

what is the strongest hand you are folding here (when "playing well")?

[/ QUOTE ]

I agree with Doug, AK. There's pretty much no difference between AK and AJ here.

Re: 30/60 Bellagio AJs Take 2
 

I agree

Re: 30/60 Bellagio AJs Take 2
 

RAISE!

Re: 30/60 Bellagio AJs Take 2
 

Thats just obsured.

Re: 30/60 Bellagio AJs Take 2
 

...to 22, or 88? Has to be one of those.

Re: 30/60 Bellagio AJs Take 2
 

do you mean "absurd" or is this some moranic variation?