Totally new poker strategy, want to get your input
 

I posted this in the texas holdem main forum and was told it may be wise to post it here too.
http://forumserver.twoplustwo.com/showfl...ID=#Post9169157
please let me know what you think either in this thread or that one.

Re: Totally new poker strategy, want to get your input
 

I think you should push only when you are first in the pot though (unless you have AA-JJ, AK). Any limpers or raisers in front of you will probably not be disciplined enough to fold because of their ego's being hurt (I'm assuming you'll be doing this at very low limits).

Also, I think you should do it with 20xbb at the lowest level you can afford. I don't think the half a stack think would be advisable.

Also, I don't think it would profitable at all, however, it would still be interesting to hear your results.

Re: Totally new poker strategy, want to get your input
 

Jared, have you checked out Getting Started in Hold'Em & the small stack strategy in that?

Re: Totally new poker strategy, want to get your input
 

[ QUOTE ]
Jared, have you checked out Getting Started in Hold'Em & the small stack strategy in that?

[/ QUOTE ]
I've read about doing short stack strategies and how to play in 1 table tournaments. I realize what I'm proposing isn't actually poker. My whole goal was to just make some money with this to field my expenses as I am still getting better playing the short stack strategy and $5 tournies. (I'm new and thus losing some money learning exactly how to play profitably) I'm just curious if anyone believes this technique would be profitable. I believe most hands everyone will fold to me and even if I got a caller I would have some small % chance of winning the hand.

Re: Totally new poker strategy, want to get your input
 

Your original post was confusing. Push/fold can be a successful strategy with a short stack, but "any hand" is not how to do it. So I'm not sure what your "totally new" strategy is. You'll usually be a 70/30 or 80/20 dog when you get called, and you'll get called about 1 time in 3. So 66% of the time, you win 1.5 BB and 33% of the time you lose maybe an average of .5 min-buy. Unless min-buy in in the realm of 5BB, I can't see any possible way this does anything for you.

Re: Totally new poker strategy, want to get your input
 

I don't think this is +EV as described, but w/ 20bb you could probably devise on without too much trouble. Could I suggest playing a lower limit instead? They have .01/.02 out there with 50bb buy-ins. I mean you could work off a BR less that $100 for quite a while while you learn.

I mean if you just want to hit n' run for quarters, you might as well grab a job and save up some $ to finace your books or whatever.

Re: Totally new poker strategy, want to get your input
 

[ QUOTE ]
Your original post was confusing. Push/fold can be a successful strategy with a short stack, but "any hand" is not how to do it. So I'm not sure what your "totally new" strategy is. You'll usually be a 70/30 or 80/20 dog when you get called, and you'll get called about 1 time in 3.
So 66% of the time, you win 1.5 BB and 33% of the time you lose maybe an average of .5 min-buy. Unless min-buy in in the realm of 5BB, I can't see any possible way this does anything for you.

[/ QUOTE ]
I think you only read my first post on that thread and did not actually get to the strategy part of it. My strategy would involve only staying at a table for 1 hand and going all in that 1 hand (or half in, still trying to figure this out) I'm assuming someone who joins your table and goes all in the first hand would probably have everyone fold to him, at least most of the time, because no one has a read on the person.

Re: Totally new poker strategy, want to get your input
 

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Your original post was confusing. Push/fold can be a successful strategy with a short stack, but "any hand" is not how to do it. So I'm not sure what your "totally new" strategy is. You'll usually be a 70/30 or 80/20 dog when you get called, and you'll get called about 1 time in 3.
So 66% of the time, you win 1.5 BB and 33% of the time you lose maybe an average of .5 min-buy. Unless min-buy in in the realm of 5BB, I can't see any possible way this does anything for you.

[/ QUOTE ]
I think you only read my first post on that thread and did not actually get to the strategy part of it. My strategy would involve only staying at a table for 1 hand and going all in that 1 hand (or half in, still trying to figure this out) I'm assuming someone who joins your table and goes all in the first hand would probably have everyone fold to him, at least most of the time, because no one has a read on the person.

[/ QUOTE ]Ok, I got that. But if you're short, the rate of calls will go up dramatically. There's no way this is +EV for any real value of min-buy.

Sorry.

Re: Totally new poker strategy, want to get your input
 

[ QUOTE ]
because no one has a read on the person.

[/ QUOTE ]

Someone might a read because they saw you do that before unless you are actively looking for tables with 9 players you have never played with in the past.

Re: Totally new poker strategy, want to get your input
 

honestly players who do that style are really annoying, it totally takes all skill out of poker. You don't see anyone actually doing that in live poker, running from one table to another playing one hand and I dont think its good etiquette to do it online. I dont think its a profitable style in the long run... you might make a bit of $ but eventually ppl will catch on and start callin you lighter.
Only way it is profitable is if you buyin for the max and shove in a high limit game and then leave with the blinds and do it very rarely.

Re: Totally new poker strategy, want to get your input
 

[ QUOTE ]

Only way it is profitable is if you buyin for the max and shove in a high limit game and then leave with the blinds and do it very rarely.

[/ QUOTE ]

i believe this i quite wrong..

The amount ur FE increases do not compensate for your enhanced losses when you are called.

Furthermore, at higher limits, lets say NL1000+ you would get quite alot of calls from some tough players with AT and stuff, and ull most of the time be behind.

Re: Totally new poker strategy, want to get your input
 

Firstoff, tough players will not call with AT for a 1000. That is ridiculous... when using this style u are more worried about bad players than good players. Good players will simply not call u without QQ+ if you are only doing this once a week they wont really catch on.
I know because I play 5/10NL, good players do not want to take big coinflips for a buyin. Even with TT, if someone shoves its a fold for 100BBs unless you know that the person is shoving with crap

Re: Totally new poker strategy, want to get your input
 

I don't like strategies that require too high a number of victories to realise a profit. In horse racing it is called being a bridge jumper, when you bet on a heavy favorite to show(1-3rdplace) A 2.00 bet pays back 2.10 cents. You bet 10,000 to win 500 but then the horse doesn't finish so now you lost ten thousand. Can it be done successfully? Yes.But it makes your risk level rise really high and your profit margin will be razor thin. You have to churn 100,000's of dollars to make anything resembling money and you only have to lose 1 in 19 times to be back at the start line.

Although the numbers for your stategy in poker will be different, I think it is a good description of your intent except unlike horse racing where some players can create a winning formula with it, I do not think it will work in poker for a number of reasons.... but hey, thats what experiments are for - better your money than mine. Post the results.

Re: Totally new poker strategy, want to get your input
 

won't be any results... I decided since the min. buyin was 20x big blind it was too risky. Now I am just focusing on improving my game and trying to become profitable on single table tournaments, im listed as a fish right now on sharkscope.com [img]/images/graemlins/frown.gif[/img] Gotta improve so I can change that

Re: Totally new poker strategy, want to get your input
 

ok the fact that you thought your random hand might end up being a 10% dog to a caller shows that instead of thinking of a new poker strategy, you need to learn the absolute beginner strategy first.

Re: Totally new poker strategy, want to get your input
 

you're right, it isn't poker with the strategy. i think that it will be somewhat profitable but not to the extent where u could actually make significant money on it since ppl will catch on to it.
I would much rather advise you to brush up on how to beat a game playing with a full buyin and to play some real poker.

Re: Totally new poker strategy, want to get your input
 

This is what I have understood so far:
1) buy in for minimum amount
2) go all in
3) leave table

considering then the following stats:

minimum buyin is 50xBB
you will get called ~ 12% of the time (big hands)
when you do get called, you are ~ 35% likely to win
the pot on average is BB, SB + 1 limper = 2.5BB

EV when called (12%) =
35 * (2.5BB + 50BB) - 65 * (50 BB) / 100 = -14.125 BB

EV in total =
88 * 2.5 BB + 12( - 14.125 BB ) / 100 = 0.505 BB


[img]/images/graemlins/blush.gif[/img]

I actually wanted to prove this cheap tactic would have a negative expectation, apparantly not.

granted of course my starting presumptions are anywhere near the ballpark. Its very hard to know how many times people would call and what the real odds might be.

But fun exercise ... [img]/images/graemlins/grin.gif[/img]

Re: Totally new poker strategy, want to get your input
 

you're not 35% likely to win when called. Closer to 20%.

Minimum buyin of 20BB, push called 4% of the time. When called, you are 25% to win. Pot is 2.5BB (including limper, who folds some percent of the time (assuming 100). review the concept of first-in-vigorish).

Now do the math.

Re: Totally new poker strategy, want to get your input
 

[ QUOTE ]
Now do the math.

[/ QUOTE ]

do it yourself [img]/images/graemlins/cool.gif[/img]

unless you have statistical figures to back up your 4% and other numbers, they are just like mine, educated guesses.

and on PP microlimit, minimum buyin is 50BBs

Re: Totally new poker strategy, want to get your input
 

Is this serious? I mean you clearly don't play enough. Most of the time people will respect the shortstack LESS and call with AJ suited and the such and basically any pocket pair 99+.

You are very welcome to do this at my tables.

Also as someone posted, people like you are VERY annoying and honestly I love seeing them go broke. You are called a hit-and-runner, and for what? All of $1.50? It's much better and easier to make money in poker to just read some books, perhaps signup to card runners and actually learn and develop a play style that will work.

Like someone said, if you did this live I wouldn't be surprised if you got kicked out of the casino and/or had a goon waiting for you in the parking lot because you beat him all in with 24 offsuit and cracked his aces.

Re: Totally new poker strategy, want to get your input
 

HU for rolls? HU for Pie?

Re: Totally new poker strategy, want to get your input
 

I don't see an option to close my own thread... I decided not to ever try this strategy and agree it's a bad idea. Please stop posting in this thread or close the thread if a mod sees this.