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-   -   Some Real Bad Beats (http://archives1.twoplustwo.com/showthread.php?t=327182)

Gugel 02-08-2007 06:56 PM

Some Real Bad Beats
 
Odds of getting the ultimate bad beat (these stats are based on each event occurring sometime during your life):

<u>Death from:</u>
Heart attack: 1/5
Cancer: 1/7
Injury (fall, etc.): 1/22
Violence (assault, war, etc.): 7/50 for males, 7/100 for females
Car crash: 1/84
Disease: 1/500
Asteroid/comet striking the Earth that is large enough to cause global disaster: 1/1000
Natural forces (heat, fire, storms, quakes, etc.): 1/3500
Asteroid/comet striking the Earth that is large enough to cause massive global mortality and threaten civilization: 1/5,000
Air travel accident: 1/20,000
Tsunami: 1/50,000
Lightening strike: 1/84,000
Shark Attack: 1/100,000

Nichomacheo 02-08-2007 06:59 PM

Re: Some Real Bad Beats
 
Three words: Poker Tax Laws.

Gugel 02-08-2007 06:59 PM

Re: Some Real Bad Beats
 
Look up some interesting stuff and post the chances of dying from it.

King Fish 02-08-2007 07:02 PM

Re: Some Real Bad Beats
 
Looks like I need to cancel my travel insurance and get comet insurance.

Sneds9 02-08-2007 07:03 PM

Re: Some Real Bad Beats
 
Chances of dying from a bee sting: 1:15000000

piiop 02-08-2007 07:06 PM

Re: Some Real Bad Beats
 
43% of all statistics are made up.

Karak567 02-08-2007 07:07 PM

Re: Some Real Bad Beats
 

Asteroid/comet striking the Earth that is large enough to cause global disaster: 1/1000

this stat alone proves that these are all made up

Gugel 02-08-2007 07:13 PM

Re: Some Real Bad Beats
 
[ QUOTE ]

Asteroid/comet striking the Earth that is large enough to cause global disaster: 1/1000

this stat alone proves that these are all made up

[/ QUOTE ]

According to NASA: "The asteroids capable of causing a global disaster if they hit the Earth are extremely rare. They probably would need to be about a kilometer or more in diameter. Such bodies impact the Earth only once every 100,000 years on average."

I assumed a human lives 100 years to make it simple.

Sk00l4m3nts 02-08-2007 07:16 PM

Re: Some Real Bad Beats
 
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]

Asteroid/comet striking the Earth that is large enough to cause global disaster: 1/1000

this stat alone proves that these are all made up

[/ QUOTE ]

According to NASA: "The asteroids capable of causing a global disaster if they hit the Earth are extremely rare. They probably would need to be about a kilometer or more in diameter. Such bodies impact the Earth only once every 100,000 years on average."

I assumed a human lives 100 years to make it simple.

[/ QUOTE ]
???

Dan87 02-08-2007 07:17 PM

Re: Some Real Bad Beats
 
so you are saying that if it does hit within our lifetime (1/1000 chance of that happening), then 100% of the time every single person will die from it...

Gugel 02-08-2007 07:19 PM

Re: Some Real Bad Beats
 
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]

Asteroid/comet striking the Earth that is large enough to cause global disaster: 1/1000

this stat alone proves that these are all made up

[/ QUOTE ]

According to NASA: "The asteroids capable of causing a global disaster if they hit the Earth are extremely rare. They probably would need to be about a kilometer or more in diameter. Such bodies impact the Earth only once every 100,000 years on average."

I assumed a human lives 100 years to make it simple.

[/ QUOTE ]
???

[/ QUOTE ]

100 year human lifespan * 1/100,000 years is the chance of asteroid hitting = 1/1000 chance during your lifetime

grando 02-08-2007 07:20 PM

Re: Some Real Bad Beats
 
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]

Asteroid/comet striking the Earth that is large enough to cause global disaster: 1/1000

this stat alone proves that these are all made up

[/ QUOTE ]

According to NASA: "The asteroids capable of causing a global disaster if they hit the Earth are extremely rare. They probably would need to be about a kilometer or more in diameter. Such bodies impact the Earth only once every 100,000 years on average."

I assumed a human lives 100 years to make it simple.

[/ QUOTE ]
???

[/ QUOTE ]

if everyone lives 100 years, and a comet comes every 100,000 years, that would be 1 comet for each 100,000/100 = 1,000 generations

since we can assume the comet will kill everyone, your chance of dying from one is 1/1,000

Sk00l4m3nts 02-08-2007 07:20 PM

Re: Some Real Bad Beats
 
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]

Asteroid/comet striking the Earth that is large enough to cause global disaster: 1/1000

this stat alone proves that these are all made up

[/ QUOTE ]

According to NASA: "The asteroids capable of causing a global disaster if they hit the Earth are extremely rare. They probably would need to be about a kilometer or more in diameter. Such bodies impact the Earth only once every 100,000 years on average."

I assumed a human lives 100 years to make it simple.

[/ QUOTE ]
???

[/ QUOTE ]

100 year human lifespan * 1/100,000 years is the chance of asteroid hitting = 1/1000 chance during your lifetime

[/ QUOTE ]
So the asteroid kills everybody every time?

grando 02-08-2007 07:21 PM

Re: Some Real Bad Beats
 
[ QUOTE ]

So the asteroid kills everybody every time?

[/ QUOTE ]

if it kills 1/2 of people, it's 1/2,000

King Fish 02-08-2007 07:23 PM

Re: Some Real Bad Beats
 
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]

So the asteroid kills everybody every time?

[/ QUOTE ]

if it kills 1/2 of people, it's 1/2,000

[/ QUOTE ]

It won't kill me, so make it 49% or less.

Gugel 02-08-2007 07:25 PM

Re: Some Real Bad Beats
 
Asteroid (29075) 1950 DA is predicted to collide with Earth on March 16, 2880. The energy released by the collision would cause major effects on the climate and biosphere which would be devastating to human civilization.

- http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Impact_event

ESKiMO-SiCKNE5S 02-08-2007 07:27 PM

Re: Some Real Bad Beats
 
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]

So the asteroid kills everybody every time?

[/ QUOTE ]

if it kills 1/2 of people, it's 1/2,000

[/ QUOTE ]

It won't kill me, so make it 49% or less.

[/ QUOTE ]

dont doubt the asteroid bro... it be up in yo face like pow!

Victor 02-08-2007 07:56 PM

Re: Some Real Bad Beats
 
[ QUOTE ]
Chances of dying from a bee sting: 1:15000000

[/ QUOTE ]

i almost died from this.

stan394 02-08-2007 08:19 PM

Re: Some Real Bad Beats
 
god you guys are good

Pudge714 02-08-2007 08:21 PM

Re: Some Real Bad Beats
 
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Chances of dying from a bee sting: 1:15000000

[/ QUOTE ]

i almost died from this.

[/ QUOTE ]
Are you allergic to bees?

CalledDownLight 02-08-2007 08:23 PM

Re: Some Real Bad Beats
 
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]

Asteroid/comet striking the Earth that is large enough to cause global disaster: 1/1000

this stat alone proves that these are all made up

[/ QUOTE ]

According to NASA: "The asteroids capable of causing a global disaster if they hit the Earth are extremely rare. They probably would need to be about a kilometer or more in diameter. Such bodies impact the Earth only once every 100,000 years on average."

I assumed a human lives 100 years to make it simple.

[/ QUOTE ]
???

[/ QUOTE ]

if everyone lives 100 years, and a comet comes every 100,000 years, that would be 1 comet for each 100,000/100 = 1,000 generations

since we can assume the comet will kill everyone, your chance of dying from one is 1/1,000

[/ QUOTE ]

For this to be right you have to assume that we reproduce only when we reach 100 years old. DUCY?

ChrisA3 02-08-2007 08:28 PM

Re: Some Real Bad Beats
 
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Chances of dying from a bee sting: 1:15000000

[/ QUOTE ]

i almost died from this.

[/ QUOTE ]

Some kid i knew did indeed die from that. He was like 8, playing outside and got stung in the throat/end of tongue. It was all swollen up in no time and he suffocated. He was also a bit mentally challenged, perhaps he could have even breathed through the nose and just panicked.

Sad sad story.

Lori 02-08-2007 08:31 PM

Re: Some Real Bad Beats
 
[ QUOTE ]
Chances of dying from a bee sting: 1:15000000

[/ QUOTE ]

Unless you're the bee.

Victor 02-09-2007 12:15 AM

Re: Some Real Bad Beats
 
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Chances of dying from a bee sting: 1:15000000

[/ QUOTE ]

i almost died from this.

[/ QUOTE ]
Are you allergic to bees?

[/ QUOTE ]

ya, i didnt know it at the time. had been stung numerous times as a kid so figured i wasnt allergic. i was 19 and mowing the lawn and was stung by a hornet which are a bit nastier than your average honeybee. they nest in the ground so obv the mower pissed them off. i was stung once, on the ankle. didnt think much of it but couldnt walk too well which pissed me off bc i had to go to work soon and the lawn was halfmowed.

took a shower bc i had to go to work. when i emerged my chest was completely red and waves of heat where running thru my head. weird. my mom freaks and drives me to the hospital. while they are asking me dumb questions like how old i am for the 100th time i pass out. they shoot me up with epinephrine and antihistamine and i live. had nightmares for awhile.

fwiw, it was about 40min since the sting before i was in serious danger. allegedly the first time you usually have the most time. if i were to be stung again i could have as little as 5 min to respond.

relaxwithtrudy 02-09-2007 12:29 AM

Re: Some Real Bad Beats
 
[ QUOTE ]
i was stung once, on the ankle. didnt think much of it but couldnt walk too well which pissed me off bc i had to go to work soon and the lawn was halfmowed.

[/ QUOTE ]

one bee sting and you were too upset to mow the rest of your lawn?

Victor 02-09-2007 12:51 AM

Re: Some Real Bad Beats
 
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
i was stung once, on the ankle. didnt think much of it but couldnt walk too well which pissed me off bc i had to go to work soon and the lawn was halfmowed.

[/ QUOTE ]

one bee sting and you were too upset to mow the rest of your lawn?

[/ QUOTE ]

ya dude im a poon. even worse, one little be sting and i stopped breathing. i wish i wasnt such a wuss.

FakePlasticTrees 02-09-2007 12:53 AM

Re: Some Real Bad Beats
 
[ QUOTE ]

ya dude im a poon. even worse, one little be sting and i stopped breathing. i wish i wasnt such a wuss.


[/ QUOTE ]

MAN UP WDF U THINK U NEED 2 BREATHE TO MOW A LAWN, ROFLCOPTER COME TALK TO ME WHEN U GOT BALLZ SON

TheJackyl 02-09-2007 08:34 AM

Re: Some Real Bad Beats
 
[ QUOTE ]

Asteroid/comet striking the Earth that is large enough to cause global disaster: 1/1000
Shark Attack: 1/100,000

[/ QUOTE ]

So you are telling me I am 100 times more likely to see Earth be hit by an asteroid than being eaten by a shark?? Thats odd, I thought there were more sharks than asteroids...

keikiwai 02-09-2007 08:36 AM

Re: Some Real Bad Beats
 
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]

Asteroid/comet striking the Earth that is large enough to cause global disaster: 1/1000
Shark Attack: 1/100,000

[/ QUOTE ]

So you are telling me I am 100 times more likely to see Earth be hit by an asteroid than being eaten by a shark?? Thats odd, I thought there were more sharks than asteroids...

[/ QUOTE ]

there are orders of magnitude more asteroids than sharks

encounter rate is what matter thoughs, not absolute numbers

Lori 02-09-2007 08:37 AM

Re: Some Real Bad Beats
 
Asteroids are ampibious

keikiwai 02-09-2007 09:11 AM

Re: Some Real Bad Beats
 
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]

Asteroid/comet striking the Earth that is large enough to cause global disaster: 1/1000
Shark Attack: 1/100,000

[/ QUOTE ]

So you are telling me I am 100 times more likely to see Earth be hit by an asteroid than being eaten by a shark?? Thats odd, I thought there were more sharks than asteroids...

[/ QUOTE ]

there are orders of magnitude more asteroids than sharks

encounter rate is what matter thoughs, not absolute numbers

[/ QUOTE ]

http://img248.imageshack.us/img248/4435/asteroidst5.gif

benza13 02-09-2007 10:12 AM

Re: Some Real Bad Beats
 
[ QUOTE ]
43% of all statistics are made up.

[/ QUOTE ]

Everyone knows that!

MatthijsH 02-09-2007 10:34 AM

Re: Some Real Bad Beats
 
[ QUOTE ]

http://img248.imageshack.us/img248/4435/asteroidst5.gif

[/ QUOTE ]

Haha, you rule!


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