Live 25-50, big decision with bottom 2
 

Bellagio 25-50. The game started a couple of hours earlier when Jamie Gold arrived, and 6 people (locals) at my 10-20 table immediately left to start a 25-50 with Jamie (they were practically drooling). That is higher than I usually play, but I decide to take a shot.

I have about 6,500 to start this hand, villian has about 6,000.

UTG (villain) and 5 other players limp, I call 25 with 84o in the small blind, and the BB checks.

8 players, $400 in pot.

Flop: T 8 4 (2 hearts)

I check, BB checks, UTG checks, MP (aggressive player) bets 300, the button (solid player) calls.

I make it 1,800 to go.

BB folds, then UTG instantly check-raises all in for 5,900 (4,100 more for me to call).

Everyone else folds.

Villain has been pretty agressive, but he does not seem completely crazy. My gut says that he probably has a set, or maybe top 2 pair, but I also think he could have limped UTG with AA or KK, and also could have a flush draw.

There is 8,700 in the pot, it will cost me 4,100 to call.

I am leaning toward a fold, I think for a minute or 2, then I ask villain if he wants me to call, and he looks me in the eye and says, “Absolutely.”

Your action?

Re: Live 25-50, big decision with bottom 2
 

fold pf and then fold on the flop..he either has J9h, 97h, T8 or a set

Re: Live 25-50, big decision with bottom 2
 

this is a pretty easy call at end. I'd prob fold preflop. once you are here he either has tt or you are ahead. 44 or 88 are unlikely as you have each. AA is a big part of his range as is a big draw like j9 plus flush you are getting fine odds so call.

Re: Live 25-50, big decision with bottom 2
 

Fold preflop.

Bet out on the flop instead of going for the hand defining check raise.

Fold to his push.

Re: Live 25-50, big decision with bottom 2
 

fold preflop, don't c/r the flop, flip a coin as to whether you call or fold once he pushes. i would fold if i were playing higher than usual since the EV is probably slim and there is no reason to take the variance to realise it. just wait to get your money in very good against the fish and ensure you can stay in the game...

Re: Live 25-50, big decision with bottom 2
 

Depends on if villian sucks enough to shove KK and AA here.

Re: Live 25-50, big decision with bottom 2
 

i don't think you can fold this without any reads this shallow... lead flop fold pre.

Re: Live 25-50, big decision with bottom 2
 

easy call at this point

Re: Live 25-50, big decision with bottom 2
 

This would be a horrendus call on the flop. do you think he wants to call with a hand when he has a draw? If he has a draw, he keeps his mouth shut cause he wants you to fold. This is a set most of the time, which leaves you drawing dead. if 50% of the time, you're drawing dead, 25% he has a draw, and 25% he has a AA/KK, you are -EV, and I think he has a set much more often than that.

Re: Live 25-50, big decision with bottom 2
 

call...overpair

Re: Live 25-50, big decision with bottom 2
 

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This would be a horrendus call on the flop. do you think he wants to call with a hand when he has a draw? If he has a draw, he keeps his mouth shut cause he wants you to fold. This is a set most of the time, which leaves you drawing dead. if 50% of the time, you're drawing dead, 25% he has a draw, and 25% he has a AA/KK, you are -EV, and I think he has a set much more often than that.

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Jason, I am glad you wrote that because you motivated me to check the math, and I think you are mistaken. Even if I am drawing dead 50% of the time, if you assign the weights above (25% AA/KK, 25% flush draw), it is still a slightly plus EV call.

Re: Live 25-50, big decision with bottom 2
 

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This would be a horrendus call on the flop. do you think he wants to call with a hand when he has a draw? If he has a draw, he keeps his mouth shut cause he wants you to fold. This is a set most of the time, which leaves you drawing dead. if 50% of the time, you're drawing dead, 25% he has a draw, and 25% he has a AA/KK, you are -EV, and I think he has a set much more often than that.

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i actually think he has a big draw the vast majority of the time here, and an overpair almost never. in my experience those who limp big pairs are not the types to go crazy on the flop in the face of this much action.

you're getting 8.7-4.1, so you need 32% equity. in the simple case of either set or OESFD, if he has the draw 2/3 of the time you have to call. if you relax it to include OESDs and NFDs, he needs to have the draw 3/5 of the time or so to make this a call.

i happen to think 2/3 is about right (based on how quick he raised especiallyl), but this is very much player and read dependent.

Re: Live 25-50, big decision with bottom 2
 

Fold pre-flop, lead the flop, and don't check-raise unless you know what you're going to do in this situation.

Re: Live 25-50, big decision with bottom 2
 

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This would be a horrendus call on the flop. do you think he wants to call with a hand when he has a draw? If he has a draw, he keeps his mouth shut cause he wants you to fold. This is a set most of the time blah blah blah

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This is a terrible analysis considering it's usually the opposite -- people are often more talkative when they have a monster DRAW than a monster MADE hand.

Re: Live 25-50, big decision with bottom 2
 

wtf to all the "fold preflop".

Re: Live 25-50, big decision with bottom 2
 

Because we have 84o in the worst position with 6 limpers in the pot. What scenario do we want the flop to be? 844 and hope someone with A4 gets all in? 84o really doesnt work together. If you are going to play it there are hardly better flops than the one we are with here.

Re: Live 25-50, big decision with bottom 2
 

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Because we have 84o in the worst position with 6 limpers in the pot. What scenario do we want the flop to be? 844 and hope someone with A4 gets all in? 84o really doesnt work together. If you are going to play it there are hardly better flops than the one we are with here.

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For all those saying fold u have obv not played deep stack poker.

Re: Live 25-50, big decision with bottom 2
 

i don't mind this c/r at all, and if i have no read i'm calling dude's push.

Re: Live 25-50, big decision with bottom 2
 

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wtf to all the "fold preflop".

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Re: Live 25-50, big decision with bottom 2
 

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For all those saying fold u have obv not played deep stack poker.

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Hero is sitting with 6500 in a 25-50 game. WTF are you talking about?

Oh, and fold preflop.

Re: Live 25-50, big decision with bottom 2
 

Easy fold if the player is solid. No way he has an overpair unless he's terrible. Best case he has a big draw an you are about even money. Worst case you are drawing damn near dead.

Re: Live 25-50, big decision with bottom 2
 

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Easy fold if the player is solid. No way he has an overpair unless he's terrible. Best case he has a big draw an you are about even money. Worst case you are drawing damn near dead.

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I like how you factor the fact that he is getting 2:1+ on his money into your analysis...

Re: Live 25-50, big decision with bottom 2
 

I think that it is prob a call at this point since you are getting 2-1, but you areplaying above your normal level so if you want to reduce variance i dont think you are givig away too much EV by folding. Also since this is such a close situation i think you need to give a bit more info.

Which are the hearts on the board? not a huge deal but if you have something like 8h4c then you can rule out an Ah8h type hand. Has the game been passive with a lot of limpers? would someone open limp with with a suited T8? again factor in the suits you have and one on board as there may be only one possible suited T8. How the game has played thus far might also give you more insight into the likelyhood of limping with TT since that is the most set. I dont think AA or KK would limp and then check flop to make a huge push after a CR, so i dont think those should factor into villains range. A read on the other players would also be helpful as it might let you eliminate one T, making 3 possible combintions for sets, or to believe that 2 flush outs are dead. Not that this makes a huge difference but in a close situation like this every bit counts.

Re: Live 25-50, big decision with bottom 2
 

rbk, fsu, do you guys simply play 100% of your hands from the small blind? I think that is probably a mistake but am open to being told otherwise if you can explain why.

Re: Live 25-50, big decision with bottom 2
 

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rbk, fsu, do you guys simply play 100% of your hands from the small blind?

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it's 8 ways and it's live poker. this is a far cry from your proposed absolute.

Re: Live 25-50, big decision with bottom 2
 

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rbk, fsu, do you guys simply play 100% of your hands from the small blind?

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it's 8 ways and it's live poker. this is a far cry from your proposed absolute.

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I would rather play 84o short-handed than 8 ways, is my thinking on this point flawed?

I would also rather play it on the button fwiw. I play pretty tight from the blinds. Is that bad?

Re: Live 25-50, big decision with bottom 2
 

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Fold pre-flop, lead the flop, and don't check-raise unless you know what you're going to do in this situation.

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Re: Live 25-50, big decision with bottom 2
 

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Easy fold if the player is solid. No way he has an overpair unless he's terrible. Best case he has a big draw an you are about even money. Worst case you are drawing damn near dead.

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I like how you factor the fact that he is getting 2:1+ on his money into your analysis...

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OK, lets factor it in. If its 50:50 we're slightly better than even money or drawing near dead, then it becomes a coinflip as you said (about the 33% expected win rate needed to break even). I think we're likely in worse shape than that in terms of likely holdings, hence to me it's a fold.

Results
 

I had been leaning toward a fold, but after his "Absolutely" comment I was now 50/50 on what to do.

I thought for another minute, then I picked up my money and started counting it to see how he would react. He seemed very uncomfortable, and combined with his comment, that made me decide to call.

He had AA. I won.

It's interesting to me that the responses range from "easy fold" to "easy call." I don't think there is anything easy about this decision, I think it is pretty close (against a known solid opponent I would probably fold pretty quickly, but that was not the case here, and I also had what I thought was a pretty good read on him not wanting a call).

Re: Results
 

do people really not complete the SB with any 2 after 98 limpers in a live game? i can't imagine the looks you get if you fold pf here and how that affects your table image.

Re: Results
 

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I had been leaning toward a fold, but after his "Absolutely" comment I was now 50/50 on what to do.

I thought for another minute, then I picked up my money and started counting it to see how he would react. He seemed very uncomfortable, and combined with his comment, that made me decide to call.

He had AA. I won.

It's interesting to me that the responses range from "easy fold" to "easy call." I don't think there is anything easy about this decision, I think it is pretty close (against a known solid opponent I would probably fold pretty quickly, but that was not the case here, and I also had what I thought was a pretty good read on him not wanting a call).

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Like I said before, no way he shows up with an overpair [img]/images/graemlins/grin.gif[/img] [img]/images/graemlins/crazy.gif[/img]

Sounds like in the end you made a good read, and followed through.

Re: Results
 

Here's a tip that has made me a lot of money, but most regulars at these casinos never ever ever ever ever fold overpairs. I'm being dead serious. It seems after sitting through long hours full of terrible cards, they get so excited after seeing a great hand that will play for stacks. It doesn't even matter what the action is on the flop, turn, or river. If there are two guys go all in in front of him, and pretty obvious at least one has a damn strong hand, they will still call or raise all in. They will never fold an overpair.

Re: Live 25-50, big decision with bottom 2
 

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Depends on if villian sucks enough to shove KK and AA here.

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this is really what it comes down to right

Re: Live 25-50, big decision with bottom 2
 

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I ask villain if he wants me to call, and he looks me in the eye and says, “Absolutely.”

Your action?

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oh god, well now you have to call.

good luck dodging those bullets

Re: Live 25-50, big decision with bottom 2
 

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Because we have 84o in the worst position with 6 limpers in the pot. What scenario do we want the flop to be? 844 and hope someone with A4 gets all in? 84o really doesnt work together. If you are going to play it there are hardly better flops than the one we are with here.

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For all those saying fold u have obv not played deep stack poker.

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Granted I do not have a lot of live experience, but I have played deep stack poker and that really doesnt change for a hand like 84o. 84o is just a really bad hand that is going to get you in more trouble than its worth. With 6 limpers you call and now lets run through some flops.

A8x - probably check fold it

822 - maybe lead and fold to real pressure or get called by a better 8 or at best lower pp who will give up hand later.

842 - unless someone was slowplaying an overpair, you probably will get 1 bet out of hands like 55 and A4, maybe two out of 89 and get stacked by 222.

8810 - maybe a few bets out of people

567 - win a small - decent pot or lose to 89 (unless someone sets).

flops you miss - check fold

the point is there are very few flops where you are going to be ahead and get value out to cover your losses from check folding misses and partial hits. 78 you can straighten out or at least have a situation where someone gets frisky with a draw against your two pair. I have heard those saying "wtf fold preflop?" are good players but i think calling preflop is a mistake.

Re: Live 25-50, big decision with bottom 2
 

i agree. there are very few non-nut hands where you will get action from worse and there are very few nut hands where you will get action. 84o is just about the worst hand in poker and i think even against a bunch of live donkeys playing it out of position will not prove to be profitable.

Re: Live 25-50, big decision with bottom 2
 

you know one day you and this fish are gonna be sittin with 50k each with another 50k fish on your left. folds to him on button. he limps. you fold 84 and watch as the flop comes 888AK and fish and super fish get 1000bbs in the middle each while you try to bash your brains open with a handful of black chips as they show their cleverly slowplayed AA and KK

yea, i'd just call to be sure that never happened. no other reason really

Re: Live 25-50, big decision with bottom 2
 

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Granted I do not have a lot of live experience, but I have played deep stack poker and that really doesnt change for a hand like 84o. 84o is just a really bad hand that is going to get you in more trouble than its worth. With 6 limpers you call and now lets run through some flops.

A8x - probably check fold it

822 - maybe lead and fold to real pressure or get called by a better 8 or at best lower pp who will give up hand later.

842 - unless someone was slowplaying an overpair, you probably will get 1 bet out of hands like 55 and A4, maybe two out of 89 and get stacked by 222.

8810 - maybe a few bets out of people

567 - win a small - decent pot or lose to 89 (unless someone sets).

flops you miss - check fold

the point is there are very few flops where you are going to be ahead and get value out to cover your losses from check folding misses and partial hits. 78 you can straighten out or at least have a situation where someone gets frisky with a draw against your two pair. I have heard those saying "wtf fold preflop?" are good players but i think calling preflop is a mistake.

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I disagree for a lot of reasons, but I think it comes down to this:

I agree 84o is a terrible hand, but many of the biggest pots I have ever won have been with terrible starting hands that flopped well-disguised hands (like 2-pair). I've had people with overpairs stack off to me on boards like this more times than I can count.

If I limp in for 25 on the [EDIT: small blind], most of the time I am done with the hand on the flop. About 2% of the time, I will flop two pair, and when I do, I am usually going to be a big favorite, and have a shot at stacking somebody. If you don't think its worth $25 for a shot to win $6,500... well, I guess we do not play the same.

Re: Live 25-50, big decision with bottom 2
 

uh, i think the main point is that when you flop two pair with 84 you will NOT be a big favorite. give villain in this hand ANY reasonable hand range and see how your two pair stacks up against it...

Re: Live 25-50, big decision with bottom 2
 

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I disagree for a lot of reasons, but I think it comes down to this:

I agree 84o is a terrible hand, but many of the biggest pots I have ever won have been with terrible starting hands that flopped well-disguised hands (like 2-pair).


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I'm not sure if you're talking about this hand, but your 2 pair hand was not at all well disguised. Whenever a blind checkraises I assume that a random 2 pair (SB or BB special) is in their range. You pretty much defined your hand by checkraising here, but the guy you stacked happens to be a donkey who can't read hands/lay down aces. How could he push all-in after a bet, a call, and a CR out of the blinds? Clearly the guy sucks.

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I've had people with overpairs stack off to me on boards like this more times than I can count.


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At least you practice good game selection.

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If I limp in for 25 on the [EDIT: small blind], most of the time I am done with the hand on the flop. About 2% of the time, I will flop two pair, and when I do, I am usually going to be a big favorite, and have a shot at stacking somebody.


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This is not at all true assuming competent players. If you are playing against clueless calling stations who will not fold any pair, then your analysis makes more sense.