Way ahead, way behind? AJs near the bubble.
 

I'm a FL player, so sorry if my post is too trivial. I was invited to a $20 buy-in private tourney (38 players), and I judged the field a typical $20 one, and considered myself one of the weaker players.

13 players remaining, 9 places pay, but this was rather a prestige tourney, so I wanted to get as high as possible rather than reaching the bubble.

Blinds 75/150, our table is 6-handed.

UTG (7050)
UTG+1 (Hero) (2910)
CO (3800)
Button (5980)
SB (8200)
BB (2400)

Preflop: Hero is UTG+1 with A [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], J [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img].
UTG folds, UTG+1 raises to 450, CO calls, all fold.

Pot: 1125
Hero has: 2460
CO has: 3350
Flop: A [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], T [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], Q [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]
Hero???

My questions:
-In general, should I play AJs in this spot preflop? If yes, how much would you raise preflop?
-How to play the flop and what is my plan for the rest of the hand?
I was confused, because if I bet, I think I will only be called by a better hand. But if I check, and try to induce a bluff, I won't have any idea about my opponents hand.

I would appriciate any feedback.

Re: Way ahead, way behind? AJs near the bubble.
 

PF - Generally, you want to bet 3x the BB. AJ is pretty strong six handed and your effective stack/blind ratio (M) is lower when it's six handed so you need to be aggressive. However, here your M is b/t 6 and 7 and your effective M, due to being only six handed, is actually just over half that so here you should've pushed pre-flop.

as played - you need to make a continuation bet. generally, you do this to continue your pre-flop aggression, to maintain control of the hand, and to avoid giving away free cards (this is a drawtastick board with 2 clubs, 3 high cards, and a few str8 possibilities). you hit the flop with top pair and your kicker is pretty good and you've got the backdoor str8 possibility so you're going to push all in on that flop.

Re: Way ahead, way behind? AJs near the bubble.
 

Six-handed you've got to play AJs. Flop is messy and I probably check call flop, check/? turn. I can't see a single worse hand calling a flop bet. There aren't any realistic club draws - villain shouldn't really be calling EP raising SS with SCs.

Re: Way ahead, way behind? AJs near the bubble.
 

- Preflop: I'd play AJ here and open for a similar amount.

- Flop play: It is a frightening board but you still have to put a bet out here. You are very likely to have the best hand. Bet 2/3 of the pot- about 700 and see what happens. If he puts you all in a call would be read dependent- I'd be inclined to fold but I'd hate it. The turn is always tricky if he flat calls. My plan would be to push if a blank comes.

Re: Way ahead, way behind? AJs near the bubble.
 

[ QUOTE ]
PF - Generally, you want to bet 3x the BB. AJ is pretty strong six handed and your effective stack/blind ratio (M) is lower when it's six handed so you need to be aggressive. However, here your M is b/t 6 and 7 and your effective M, due to being only six handed, is actually just over half that so here you should've pushed pre-flop.


[/ QUOTE ]

stack 2900
blinds 225
players 6

M= approx 8

Re: Way ahead, way behind? AJs near the bubble.
 

[ QUOTE ]
you still have to put a bet out here. You are very likely to have the best hand.

[/ QUOTE ]

Why?

Do we fold out a better hand? Never.
Do we get call from a worse hand? Very rarely.
Are we scared of giving a free card? If villain has clubs and isn't a total moron, he has the best hand.

The only worse hands we're getting action out of here are low suited club connectors, JJ and KK. Given the J in our hand and pre-flop, none of these are very likely.

It's sucks that being OOP means that if villain also has AJ he probably wins this pot over three streets, but that can't be helped.

Of course, this is opponent dependent. Villain might be a complete spaz and read a check as us not having an ace rather than a totally reasonable play on this board with any holding but even then check calling the flop is still better than betting.

Re: Way ahead, way behind? AJs near the bubble.
 

I don't think pushing is a good idea, because a worse hand will never call, but if my opponent folds after pushing, he would probably also fold to the contbet.

Assuming that a worse hand will never call, a 700 continuation bet should win here approximately two times out of five to break even.
My equity is the following with the below ranges:

QQ-77,AQs+,KQs,AQo+ 54%
QQ-77,AQs+,AQo+ 53%
QQ-77,AQs+,AKo 58%

(Those who are missing AA-KK, including those hands would increase my equity in overall because I hold an ace [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img])
I think in this hand these numbers are quite close to the real chances of having the best hand on the flop. So let's assume that my opponent will fold 5 or 6 times out of ten. Then I make 5 or 6 *1125 on this hand if he folds.
If he pushes to my contbet, I fold(?), and I lose the 700.
What is my plan if he simply calls? If I simply check/fold turn, than I lose 700. Assuming that I always fold when my contbet doesn't work, my EV is around 200-250 chips / contbet on the long run.
But if I check the flop, he will probably also bet weaker hands on the flop than he would bet on the turn after he called my flop bet and I checked. And if I'm ahead, he probably has max 4 outs to beat me.
What about inducing a bluff here? He will probably bet 80% of the time when I check, and a free card doesn't seem to be a catastrophe. And when he checks, I can go ahead on the turn.

Do you think that the fact that he will bet more hands than he will call with might ever outweight the chance of winning the money that is already in the pot in this situation?

Re: Way ahead, way behind? AJs near the bubble.
 

Preflop, you have to play the hand. How much you raise depends on teh table and your style.

Once you bet the flop, I don't think you can fold. You have a gutshot as well as top pair.

Re: Way ahead, way behind? AJs near the bubble.
 

This is a nice subtle little hand.

I'd agree that you have to play AJs here. Six handed (5 really, because UTG folded) you've gotta feel pretty good going in. The 3x the big blind raise is pretty standard and I don't think anyone's going to argue w/ that..

The flop is where it gets interesting. You don't have any read on your opponent by this point? I would think that almost 2/3rds of the way through a tourny you need to have seen at least a couple show downs from the villain. Is he what Registrar calls "a complete spaz"? In my experience at this limit, even this far in a tourny there are plenty of those. So has he ever shown down some paint like KQ or even an underpair? Or, if he's not a spaz but just trying too hard: How many hands has he been playing recently/how aggressively? Have you seen him try to use position before? If he thinks he can take a pot based on late position I think that loosens up his call requirements. Many people tighten up this close to the bubble, and if he's a decent player he may be trying to take advantage of that.

So what's your move on the flop? It's weird, I agree w/ most of the analysis above but reach a different result. I think most times Hero bets, Villain correctly folds all the worse hands and either calls or raises all the better hands. And as they say, poker is about inducing mistakes from your opponent, so any move likely to induce a correct play can't be the best option.

But like you say: he is going to take a stab at this pot if you check. Again, I'd like some read based on his past play to back up your 80% stab rate here, but knowing nothing but the situation that sounds reasonable. So, since I agree w/ Beenben and some others that you're committed to this hand, and I agree w/ you Villan's gonna stab at it I say check and then push all in.

The other argument for this is your Q. I know it's the weaker force but I think it's important this near the bubble. If you let the hand go passively here you'll have 2460 chips-- basically tied for last place at your table. You're also heading into the blinds the next two hands. So unless you get some cards the next two hands or the table goes passive, you'll be in last place, 4 of the other 5 players at the table will have twice your stack, and you'll basically be reduced to one and a half move poker. This is not a good place to be, especially because you said your ambition was to reach as high as possible- rather than hanging on into the money.

In your post I think the key was when you said "if I check...I won't have any idea of my opponents hand." This shows even more clearly then your later 80% that you beleive your opponent is gonna push with anything he called your earlier bet with. I'd definitly check here and plan on going all in...

(Also, one stupid question-[img]/images/graemlins/confused.gif[/img]- what is FL? I looked in the Acronym Dictionary and coudln't find it).

Re: Way ahead, way behind? AJs near the bubble.
 

I don't have any read, I was moved to the table a few hands ago, and I haven't seen him playing a single hand.

FL is fixed limit [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]. I rarely play any tourneys, but I have a bit of experience in reading boards like that holding AJs [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]. But you know the tricky possibility that enables the players to raise more than a small or a bigbet confuses me...

Definitely a double-edged sword here. I agree that if I would like to commit myself to the hand, I should rather do that by checking first.
I assume that you would call an all-in here after checking? But would you always push after your opponent bet? Or would you let your opponent continue bluffing by just calling his flop bet? (If it's not an all-in bet of course...)

Re: Way ahead, way behind? AJs near the bubble.
 

I don't understand how you can be way behind. You are 1% against KJ for a straight, but you are 16% against TT for a set, 18% against AQ, and 38% against AT.

I would just bet out and be prepared to get all the money in.

Re: Way ahead, way behind? AJs near the bubble.
 

You make a good case for checking and now I'm even more unsure how to play this in the future!

What happens when you check/call his flop bet and then he bets tempting amounts on the turn and river that you just can't fold to? I would just hate to lose my chips passively like this but agree that very few hands you beat call a continuation bet.

Re: Way ahead, way behind? AJs near the bubble.
 

I would probably push against any bet.

What are the possibilities?

He could min bet. What does this tell you? He's a bad player. Post-Oak bet, doyle hates it, but its everywhere. Either he's got a monster and he's transparently milking you, or he's weak and taking a pathetic stab at the pot. Both plays are so common they don't really give you any more information and based on your position in the tourny I still want all my chips in now. Would he keep betting at it if you smooth call? Hard to say-- he might make another min bet for $300, again either if he's milking you or if he's weakly bluffing. But if he's bluffing I think he's more likely to check it down at this point unless he improves. I think any player who would bluff weakly on the flop and turn against that board might be loose enough to call your check raise all in.

He could make a standard bet: somewhere in the 1/2 pot to pot range of $550-$1125. Here I don't think there is too much difference between calling now or raising. Even if he bets $550, you call- the pot is $2225 and you've got $1910 left. There it seems to me one of you is going to bet the turn and if you're committed to your hand you'll end up all in anyway. At least if you check raise now you're not letting him see any cards for free.

He could overbet the pot. This is kinda like the min bet in that its obviously a mistake but it doesn't tell you which way. Either he was slowplaying AA and hit a set but got nervous at the "drawtastic" board, or he was hoping to get lucky w/ 22 and didn't and panicked. Either way his all-in is prob a -EV move, but he made it. Here I'd still call-- Hopefully Caro's Stong means Weak Law is at work and I'm way ahead. This overbet to me suggests an inexperienced player more likely to have crap then have me dominated, and at least a couple of the times I am dominated I'll hit my K for the straight and really wreck the Villains life.

So no matter what it looks like I'm pushing after checking.

(Also I am pretty sure I am spelling Villain wrong and have a sneaking suspicion it might be Villian. But I can't fold it now, I mean I've used it like 12 times so I'm post committed, right?)

Re: Way ahead, way behind? AJs near the bubble.
 

You could checkraise allin.

I don't accept the way ahead / way behind assumption. There are tons of draws on this board. You could easily bet and be raised allin by someone who is currently behind. Plus, you should have atleast 4 outs if you are behind.

If you just check it, you may give someone a chance to make a flush, straight, or 2 pair.

Re: Way ahead, way behind? AJs near the bubble.
 

There's a question mark in the title of the thread, because I wanted to indicate that this might be subject of the discussion as well.
Regarding TT and AQ you're right, but I would rather exclude AT from his preflop range.

Re: Way ahead, way behind? AJs near the bubble.
 

So I bet like 700 on the flop, call a push, and push the turn if villain calls. TPGK + straight draw seems good enough.

Re: Way ahead, way behind? AJs near the bubble.
 

I think the title's gotta be "AJ: way too close to the bubble to be worrying about how far ahead they are"

I basically agree w/ what Betgo's saying (I think) that this hand is good enough at this point in the tournament that you probably need to put all your money in with it.

So with that conclusion its a matter of approach. Betgo- I know the check-raise is used way too often, but isn't this basically the situation where it's appropriate? I accepted Gerilege's idea that the bad-guy (i gave up on spelling villian) is going to bet 80% of the time if we check, no matter what he has, and also fold losing hands most of the time if we bet the flop. So isn't check-raising here an +EV move?

Re: Way ahead, way behind? AJs near the bubble.
 

If you were deeper you could check/call but the pot is half your stack and you have top pair and a GS redraw. I bet pot and call push. IF the pot was 1/3 your stack or less I check/call flop and have a decision to make on turn if he bets again.

Re: Way ahead, way behind? AJs near the bubble.
 

any reads would help in playing the hand....the problem is that your stack is pretty awkward to do anything but build the pot at this point. if you have a read that you cant play against heat, i would bet/fold with that read...otherwise, im looking to get it all in. id probably bet 700 as this will let the hand play itself from then on

Re: Way ahead, way behind? AJs near the bubble.
 

I agree with Betgo - bet this flop, be prepared to go all the way with it.

The problem with checking this flop, is you are very much setting up a drawing hand to semi-bluff all in on you, and even though you are 60 / 40 against most draws - well i would prefer to win a smaller pot without seeing the showdown rather than take a 60 / 40 of doubling up or going home right now.

If you bet the flop and hes on a draw, you at least know where you stand if he calls and you both see another card. Much better than checking and inducing a push.

Re: Way ahead, way behind? AJs near the bubble.
 

So we are fully prepared to get all our chips into this pot considering our stack. The only question(?) is whether we should contbet first or check.

I think it makes no difference in case he has QQ (less likely), TT, AK or AQs, we get all-in anyway either by bet/call or check/call or check/push or bet/push (we have 15-17% equity). The interesting part is when he has JJ,99,88,77. I think this range is quite reasonable without any reads. These pairs sum up to 21 hands from the 37 (21 + 3 QQ, 3TT, 8 AK, 2AQs). Against JJ we have 82 or 87% equity (depending on the Jc), against the lower pairs it is 86-91 (depending on the club).

I think there are no really possible drawing hands considering our hand and the texture of the flop, so I’m not afraid of getting bluffed out by a lesser hand, and we assumed that we will call anyway. So when we are ahead, we have at least 82%, but possibly 91%.

Now I would need an intelligent guess about the followings without any read, if possible.

A. We bet 700:

He has JJ (with or without a club). He folds x%, calls y%, pushes 100-x-y%.
He has 99,88 or 77. He folds x%, calls y%, pushes 100-x-y%.

B. We check.

He has JJ (with or without a club). He checks x%, bets y%, pushes 100-x-y%.
He has 99,88,77 (with or without a club). He checks x%, bets y%, pushes 100-x-y%.

Re: Way ahead, way behind? AJs near the bubble.
 

I check because he wiill never call with lots of holdings that we are comfortably beating.

I'd also like to know what draws exactly everyone if referring to. Think about this: don't just consider that because we see two clubs and three broadway cards that this means we can't give a free card. If he's called pre-flop with clubs, then they must be connecting (because Ac has flopped). If they are connecting broadway clubs, we are toast anyway. He's not folding and we are a dog. It is not impossible that he has called with clubs that do not also offer him a straight draw but that would be very bad play with stacks this shallow against an UTG raiser.

How about straight draws? Well, again, he's not folding and he is often ahead.

I really don't see any benefit to betting this flop. What exactly are we protecting our hand from? He will not call with a worse hand.

If we check the flop, he might bet with a worse hand or make one stab at it with a better hand that we can overtake. If he has two pair, for example, I doubt he will bet twice at this board.

I think we're pretty much obliged to call off all our chips here, this shallow, but to bet all of our chips into a better hand which probably feels too vulnerable to get it all in itself, seems a little rash.

Re: Way ahead, way behind? AJs near the bubble.
 

I like 450/call shove/shove non-broadway turn if he calls.

Re: Way ahead, way behind? AJs near the bubble.
 

I don't understand all the certain pronouncements of "he will not call with a worse hand." Someone else says "there are no realistic draws."

I think those who say these things are using way too restrictive of a hand range for a tournament like this. Ax is a very possible hand, and many poor players would call a flop bet with something like A8. If you aren't including those hands in your range and EV, maybe with a discount, you are getting the wrong numbers. Also, if you aren't including flush draws with connectors, you are off as well.

I constantly see posts here listing starting ranges that are unrealistic, in my view.

Re: Way ahead, way behind? AJs near the bubble.
 

I'd have to agree w/ incongruity about the calling ranges. It's certainly the wrong play but in tourny's like this you see a ton of Ace-hugger's playing ace-rag in this situation, and you'll also see people calling preflop with pairs lower then 88.

Re: Way ahead, way behind? AJs near the bubble.
 

Ax is the only hand that calls the flop that we're ahead of if we lead, and maybe a bad player who can't muck JJ. I think the best line here, if we're planning to felt this no matter what, is c/push the flop. You'll get value out of worse hands and we aren't worried about anyone drawing out here, and taking such a line might get worse hands like Ax to call when they might've folded to a turn push.

Re: Way ahead, way behind? AJs near the bubble.
 

[ QUOTE ]
I don't understand all the certain pronouncements of "he will not call with a worse hand." Someone else says "there are no realistic draws."

I think those who say these things are using way too restrictive of a hand range for a tournament like this. Ax is a very possible hand, and many poor players would call a flop bet with something like A8. If you aren't including those hands in your range and EV, maybe with a discount, you are getting the wrong numbers. Also, if you aren't including flush draws with connectors, you are off as well.

I constantly see posts here listing starting ranges that are unrealistic, in my view.

[/ QUOTE ]

This is a good point but which flush draws are we talking about here? Not AX [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] Even idiots rarely play Kx [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]. My point is that if it's a high club connector, we're not ahead or only marginally. We're not charging a draw on the flop. We're paying off a better hand and villain isn't going anywhere. As for ace rag hands, if they are calling, they will call on the turn.