Maximizing Value with the Mortal Nuts
 

The thread about laying down the nut flush vs straight flush, and a hand I played a few days ago, got me thinking.

Hypothetical situation:

You are in the BB with J [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] 9 [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] 8 [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] 7 [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]

After a bunch of limpers a very straight forward ABC player raises. You know with certainty that he has AAxx.

The flop comes T[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] 8[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] 7[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]

It's checked to the ABC player who pots immediately. Assume that the table is evenly stacked,everyone has 150-200BBs, and none of your opponents think beyond the first or second level.

What is your best course of action to maximize your value here?

Re: Maximizing Value with the Mortal Nuts
 

I'd call behind for some overcalls from people looking to fill up, or maybe someone behind me wants to checkraise if they have the nut flush. Either way - keeping in as many people drawing dead as possible. If everyone else folds there won't be much value in the hand, barring a miracle that ABC hits runners for a boat (or he has the nut flush).

If someone fills up on the turn it shouldnt be too hard to get lots of money in.. If that doesn't happen, I'd lead the turn praying ABC has the nut flush. If he does and raises, just call his raise if it's still a multiway pot, if not, put more money in.

Re: Maximizing Value with the Mortal Nuts
 

The ABC player has the nutflush with 100% certainty.

Re: Maximizing Value with the Mortal Nuts
 

lets see, u obviously hope for someone to have the ace high flush here to pay u off, set possibilities are pretty slim cause u have 78. i would probably make it simple and raise here cause the preflop raiser might have the ace high flush and if u just call and the board pairs on the turn he might not pay u off. i wouldnt expect to get callers without at least the q/k high flush if u call here and i dont think this is likely enough to be good. a set of 10s would certainly call if u called before and would make sure u get paid on paired boards too. i dont know how likely it is for one of the other players too have this, any probability experts here?

a just read pfr has nutflush all time, i think it s a raise to built the pot before the board pairs.

Re: Maximizing Value with the Mortal Nuts
 

is pfr able to lay the ace high flush against heavy resistance on non paird boards? if not i d bring in as much money as possible on every street.

Re: Maximizing Value with the Mortal Nuts
 

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The ABC player has the nutflush with 100% certainty.

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Then raise the flop to get more money in before the board pairs. As another person said, sets are unlikely since you have 78. Not raising here to me just accomplishes getting TTT to come along when it's out (he may come anyway since it's deep). But IMO you must raise the flop to get more money in right away. If nobody else calls your raise and pf raiser smoothcalls, obv bomb any turn that doesn't pair the board. If board pairs on turn check behind and hope he pays off the river (I would if I were him since a flop raise from a set is totally nonstandard and retarded).

*Edit* Actually you could maybe smoothcall this since you DO have 78, board will only pair what, 14% on turn? But I think you stack the nutflush by raising 100% of the time, versus only really keeping in a couple of unlikely hands by smoothcalling, which aren't going to pay off unless board does pair anyway. And if you keep in a hand like the K-high flush instead of a set by smoothcalling, and board pairs on the turn, that's a disaster (especially deep).

Re: Maximizing Value with the Mortal Nuts
 

ive never once seen a player lay down the ace high nut flush with two cards to come. Have you???

I'm thinking your question can boil down to how to maximize value from sets, and other small flushes. Neitehr are too likely, since you put villian on AX of the suit, and you have 2 more. You also have 78, so set are less likely.

BUt, a set would be more than happy to push all in against you and a foe who he assumes both have a flush, right? So push it all in on flop.

Re: Maximizing Value with the Mortal Nuts
 

I think betting the flop for like 1/2 pot or 1/3 pot is good here. Hopefully, you get some calls inbetween by smaller flushes, sets, or even str8s. Then the nutflush guy raises and you just call giving odds to anyone with a set (tho your 87 is kind of unfortunate for that). Then on the turn you check call unless theres only a little bit left then you can c/r ai. Then on the river donk your remaining stack into the guy.

If I checked the flop, I would craise small there so that hopefully anyone with a set would still call then the pfr would reraise.

Re: Maximizing Value with the Mortal Nuts
 

get it in now in anyway you can, before the board pairs. he isn't going anywhere.

Re: Maximizing Value with the Mortal Nuts
 

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get it in now in anyway you can, before the board pairs. he isn't going anywhere, but he will fold if board pairs .


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Re: Maximizing Value with the Mortal Nuts
 

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BUt, a set would be more than happy to push all in against you and a foe who he assumes both have a flush, right? So push it all in on flop.

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Yeah most players would call a c/r all in with a set here all of the time.

The standard line I see most people taking here is c/c flop, c/c turn, VB river and call push but I think this is generally awful *especially* if you are up against top set and the nut flush, since one or the other won't be calling you by the river most times. Getting it in on the flop gets you all the money with two players drawing dead. Against players that can think a few levels higher you might have to vary your play a little more since they will know you either have a SF or a bluff.

A very similar situation is when you flop quads and your opponent has to have the under or overfull. I rarely see anyone lay down TTxx against a reraise on a JJT flop, but they will pitch it when the Q comes on the turn. Anytime I meet resistance when I flop that strong I am always gonna get as much money in on the flop as possible.

IMHO it is almost always better to fast play even the strongest of made hands in PLO because slowplaying will win usually win you big pots against the second nuts and very little against anything else, while fast play will win you a lot when your opponent thinks he is ahead or drawing live.

Re: Maximizing Value with the Mortal Nuts
 

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I think betting the flop for like 1/2 pot or 1/3 pot is good here. Hopefully, you get some calls inbetween by smaller flushes, sets, or even str8s. Then the nutflush guy raises and you just call giving odds to anyone with a set (tho your 87 is kind of unfortunate for that). Then on the turn you check call unless theres only a little bit left then you can c/r ai. Then on the river donk your remaining stack into the guy.

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If I was the villain in the hand and flopped the nut flush, this is exactly the kind of line that would have me consider checking behind on the turn and either just calling or folding the river, especially since I doubt there are many hands you play this way.

Re: Maximizing Value with the Mortal Nuts
 

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What is your best course of action to maximize your value here?

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I think this more depends on how he views your play.

If there's a >30% chance that he thinks you aren't very good and like to bluff, I full pot raise. He might be forced to call given your range (any flush, set, etc)

If he views you as a ABC player, calling probably is the best option. The board will most likely blank on the turn, and he will be forced to pot it again. Then you can try a min raise. I'd save the PSB for the river.

If you are playing as a good LAG, I would minimium raise which he could construe as having a set (or repping one) and trying to exert pot control if the board pairs then you could take the pot from him.

Re: Maximizing Value with the Mortal Nuts
 

So you're saying the player having the 3rd nuts on the flop (and no redraws if he's behind) should be willing to get all in on the flop for 150+bbs?

But he should also check behind on the turn with the nutflush if someone bet/called the flop?

Re: Maximizing Value with the Mortal Nuts
 

I'm not sure if you meant that to be directed at Troll or me.

If I get checkraised on this board with stacks this relatively shallow I am never folding the nut flush. OTOH, if someone takes a weird line that screams MILK when my hand is obvious, yeah I am definitely going to strongly consider checking behind on the turn and folding the river.

Re: Maximizing Value with the Mortal Nuts
 

If he's as ABC as you say he is, you have zero worry about him folding unless the board pairs. I'd just go ahead and repot here. Top set will be glad to get it in against two flushes (which is what he'll put you on) and other sets are unlikely here. The only worry is that a board pair will kill your action, so just make sure that the nut flush pays you off.

Re: Maximizing Value with the Mortal Nuts
 

c/r flop. if hes abc, hes bet betting that flop w/o the AcXc.

Re: Maximizing Value with the Mortal Nuts
 

Ok, let's say I am guy with J987 and you are guy with AAnut flush. (Not that we are either player, just so it's clear who I mean when I use "you" or "I")

You're saying if I checkraise the flop then you'll get all in for 150+bbs (not shallow, btw). (Realizing that you have the 3rd nuts without any way to improve if you're behind. And it's way unlikely anyone with K-flush would EVER do this.)

But if I bet the flop, you'll find that so suspicious that you'll check behind on the turn and might fold the river??

I think betting the flop is the best play by far. I can put you on AA due to your raise pf, but that doesn't mean you have the nutflush here so If I dont bet I risk getting it checked thru. If I bet the flop, I can possibly get small flushes to call as well as sets or two pair hands. Sure small flushes and two pairs will most likely fold when you raise, but thats more $$ in the pot for me that would've been completely shut out had I c/r'ed the flop.

So after I bet the flop, you would raise and I would just call to keep anyone else in. Then I would check to you on the turn and you'd bet allin basically and I would call and win. I have no idea how bet/calling the flop and checking the turn is so suspicious.


Even if we decide that AAnut flush man isn't folding the flop (which is fine, almost no one would), checking the flop in the first place still isn't the best play.

Re: Maximizing Value with the Mortal Nuts
 

If we lead and get raised by the preflop raiser, what does this do in terms of us getting calls from sets after that raise (before it gets back to us)? I think it lessens the chances that we get a call there. Also we don't even know the preflop raiser is very likely to have the nutflush, until he bets the flop. The checkraise line definitely will put more fear into the nutflush guy, but I don't think he ever folds anyway. However in the plus column, checkraising allows the pot to be huge back to anybody who just called the preflop raiser's bet (ie sets) and for them to close the action getting good odds on drawing. Therefore I think the checkraise line is actually better in this particular case.

*Edit* Actually the set person won't really be "closing" the action, but clearly looking at a better picture in terms of our commitment to the pot by the time we've checkraised. In my experience, top set (the most likely by far for someone to have) will optimistically put us both on calling hands he's drawing live against, one on the nutflush, the other on 2nd nutflush/lower set, and will go with us 3-way ai IF he's relatively sure a 3-way ai is reliable. IMO the checkraise makes this look much more likely than if we lead, get raised, and then he must call this raise unsure of if we're sweetening the pot.

Re: Maximizing Value with the Mortal Nuts
 

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The standard line I see most people taking here is c/c flop, c/c turn, VB river and call push but I think this is generally awful *especially* if you are up against top set and the nut flush, since one or the other won't be calling you by the river most times.

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This is pretty much dead-on. You're stacking the ace-high regardless, and the people most likely to improve on the turn will usually stay in a multiway pot here anyway, so why risk losing either?

Btw, I prefer the check-raise, because this reasoning is best when opponents are strong enough that they give action on their own. The hands that are likely to check behind tend to be the ones that you're willing to slowplay against, and the hands that will bet/fold usually wouldn't have called your bet in the first place.

Re: Maximizing Value with the Mortal Nuts
 

Well you keep calling it the third nuts when it's really the second (both SF share the same card)... but it's hardly the same as have Qxh on a 4h6hTh board. The chances of either SF being out there are remarkably slim (I think it's less than 5%, but Silent A would be able to give you better numbers). Also saying someone with the king high flush would never do this is pretty bizarre because it happens at my tables (yay party) all the time.

Not sure what games you are playing in but 150BB's is pretty shallow. If I don't have 300BB's on a table within an hour there is usually something gravely wrong.

Whether or not you should lead here is pretty greatly dependant on whether or not you mix up your play sufficiently and lead with worse flushes and sets. I agree that generally leading is the best play. I think you are missing (and it's my fault because I didn't point it out in the OP) that the pot is going to be 40+ BB's on the flop after the button raises a bunch of limpers. When he raises the flop all of the money is going in so there's not really going to be any turn play regardless unless you c/c.

Also, even if the pot was 20BB's on the flop and you lead 10, he's going to be able to make it 50 to go. If you call with a set in that situation it's a pretty big leak unless you are quite a bit deeper.

If the flop gets checked through because you're in a pretty passive game that's not a big deal either. Many hands that would call your small bet on the flop and fold the turn fearing having to call a larger river bet will be happy to get to showdown by calling the turn and river bets. Getting a 10-15BB call on the turn and a 25-30 call on the turn is a lot better than having someone call 10BB on the flop and fold the turn.

Finally I almost always prefer the line that gets your opponent to make one large bad choice rather than 3 smaller ones.

Re: Maximizing Value with the Mortal Nuts
 

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If we lead and get raised by the preflop raiser, what does this do in terms of us getting calls from sets after that raise (before it gets back to us)? I think it lessens the chances that we get a call there. Also we don't even know the preflop raiser is very likely to have the nutflush, until he bets the flop. The checkraise line definitely will put more fear into the nutflush guy, but I don't think he ever folds anyway. However in the plus column, checkraising allows the pot to be huge back to anybody who just called the preflop raiser's bet (ie sets) and for them to close the action getting good odds on drawing. Therefore I think the checkraise line is actually better in this particular case.

*Edit* Actually the set person won't really be "closing" the action, but clearly looking at a better picture in terms of our commitment to the pot by the time we've checkraised. In my experience, top set (the most likely by far for someone to have) will optimistically put us both on calling hands he's drawing live against, one on the nutflush, the other on 2nd nutflush/lower set, and will go with us 3-way ai IF he's relatively sure a 3-way ai is reliable. IMO the checkraise makes this look much more likely than if we lead, get raised, and then he must call this raise unsure of if we're sweetening the pot.

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No.

If someone has a set they will call a flop bet then call the raise from pfr much more readily then they would if you c/r'ed the pfr.

Re: Maximizing Value with the Mortal Nuts
 

Ok, so what if I rephrase your question...

We have J [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]9 [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]8 [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]7 [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] in the BB.

A few limpers, tight ABC player raises pot, sb folds, the limpers call.

The pfr has AA 100% of the time. All stacks are 150-200bbs.

Flop: T [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]8 [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]7 [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]

What's the best line?

I think you should bet 1/2 pot.

Re: Maximizing Value with the Mortal Nuts
 

Ok so let's say this is $200 PLO and the pot is $30 to the flop. All important stacks have $300 at the start of the hand.

You lead $15, get called by one of limpers who has TT and Mr. ABC raises full pot to $90. You both call.

a) The turn pairs the board. The only time this is good for you money wise is when the limper is deeper than the PFR and you cover or when the limper makes quads on the turn and an ace hits the river.

b) The turn doesn't pair the board and the PFR pushes. Unless the limper is really bad he can't call. If he is really bad enough to call the turn getting 3:1 all in he is calling a c/r on the flop anyway.

So basically you are going to end up stacking one or the other with your line but probably not both. Checkraising will get you both stacks the majority of the time. I probably made a mistake in specifying 150-200BB stacks in the first place, that just happened to be how the hand played out.

Re: Maximizing Value with the Mortal Nuts
 

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a) The turn pairs the board. The only time this is good for you money wise is when the limper is deeper than the PFR and you cover or when the limper makes quads on the turn and an ace hits the river.

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There's only 1 ten, 2 8's, and 2'7s left.

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b) The turn doesn't pair the board and the PFR pushes. Unless the limper is really bad he can't call. If he is really bad enough to call the turn getting 3:1 all in he is calling a c/r on the flop anyway.

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Lol what? Turn goes check, check, pfr pot, i call, you think guy with flopped top set is ever folding there?


Also, what about the times when the pfr doesn't have the nutflush?

Re: Maximizing Value with the Mortal Nuts
 

If the guy with a set is calling the turn getting 3:1 he's going to make the same mistake on the flop getting 2:1. Yes, TT only has 5 outs on the turn. That's still a 12% chance you don't get to stack the PFR unless some miracle runner runner situation happens, wheras when you c/r the flop you are going to stack both pretty much 100% of the time. The money you lose from some hands that might call half pot or whatever on the flop you are going to more than make up for by stacking two people instead of one.

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Lol what? Turn goes check, check, pfr pot, i call, you think guy with flopped top set is ever folding there?

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Uh yeah, if he is a reasonable player yes. Do you routinely call there with no money behind? If he's decent, he's going to know something is up unless you have a bad image since it's going to be fairly clear the PFR has the nut flush. That gives you either a straight flush, maybe king high, or a set. If he's stupid he's going to call a flop c/r regardless.

All that happens with your line is it gives your opponents chances to fold.

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iAlso, what about the times when the pfr doesn't have the nutflush?

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Well I thought I made it clear with 'He has the nutflush with 100% certainity'. There are tons of tight unimaginative nits that would never bet the naked ace in this spot and would check behind with any lower flush.