Problem with your book
 

Holla, I just started reading your book "Small Stakes Hold
'em" by Ed Miller, David Sklansky, and Mason Malmuth. And was sent to this website by the back. On Page 40, Miller talks about "Random and Independent Events." He seems to be suggesting that it is just as likely to not complete a flush draw 20 times in a row as it is tont compelte a fush draw 1 times. This is not rihgt, the odds of you missing a flushes 20 times in a row is much lower than missing it just 1 tim. It would be like roling a 3 sided die 20 times in a row. The odds of not rloling a 1 are much higher if you roll it once, than if you roll it 20 times. Anyone want to explain this?

Re: Problem with your book
 

After you've missed the flush draw the 19th straight time, there is the same probability you miss it the 20th time as you miss it once. In other words, the 19 previous times you missed have nothing to do with the 20th.

Re: Problem with your book
 

For what my opinion is worth, I believe you are misreading that, although admittedly it has been a while since I read that part so I don't remember it exactly.
I believe he states that even if you missed the flush 20 times before, you are no more likely to complete the flush the 21st time. Some players believe they are "due" becuase they haven't hit a flush all night they believe that the next time they are going to hit it.

Re: Problem with your book
 

But that doesn't make any sense. The odds of missing it 20 times in a row are very low. Are you telling me that if you miss a flush draw 99 times in a row by some crazy strike of probality, on the 100th time its the same chance? If that was true, than probability wouldn't work. I used to be a roulette player in the casino, I won some, and lost some, but overall I'm up. The reason why is I knew to only bet colors, and only bet a color that hadn't come up in a while, because the odds of red not coming up 10 times in a row are low. Why do you think they have a history chart at the tables?

Re: Problem with your book
 

[ QUOTE ]
But that doesn't make any sense. The odds of missing it 20 times in a row are very low. Are you telling me that if you miss a flush draw 99 times in a row by some crazy strike of probality, on the 100th time its the same chance? If that was true, than probability wouldn't work. I used to be a roulette player in the casino, I won some, and lost some, but overall I'm up. The reason why is I knew to only bet colors, and only bet a color that hadn't come up in a while, because the odds of red not coming up 10 times in a row are low. Why do you think they have a history chart at the tables?

[/ QUOTE ]
Wow...just wow. Seriously man, this is very basic probability. History has no affect on future outcome. This is true for both poker and roulette. Just be happy you have gotten lucky in roulette.

Oh, and they have a history chart at the tables to make people such as yourself think it matters.

Re: Problem with your book
 

If history doesn't matter than why does probability work? Why don't flipped coins just always come up heads? Obviously history matters, because in the long run (which is in the book as well), it all evens out.

Anyway, other than that, good book so far.

Re: Problem with your book
 

[ QUOTE ]
I used to be a roulette player in the casino, I won some, and lost some, but overall I'm up.

[/ QUOTE ]
No, you're not.

Re: Problem with your book
 

True, but you have to realize the long is infinity, not 20 spins of the wheel, or 50 hands of poker, or even 1 million flips of a coin. The long run is very long.
Don't take this the wrong way, but your belief in your theories are exactly why casinos make billions of dollars a year.

Re: Problem with your book
 

History is only an accounting of the probable number of things that have already happened.

Re: Problem with your book
 

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
I used to be a roulette player in the casino, I won some, and lost some, but overall I'm up.

[/ QUOTE ]
No, you're not.

[/ QUOTE ]

I love the internet. People can make any statement they want, no matter how rude or dumb, safely behind their computer screen. Do you know me? I don't think so. Then you have no idea how much I've won or lost. And I've won. Three weeks ago, I won like $400 in one night playing smart roulette, but whatever.

Re: Problem with your book
 

[ QUOTE ]
True, but you have to realize the long is infinity, not 20 spins of the wheel, or 50 hands of poker, or even 1 million flips of a coin. The long run is very long.
Don't take this the wrong way, but your belief in your theories are exactly why casinos make billions of dollars a year.

[/ QUOTE ]

Yeah, I understand this. I'm not saying that the history of the cards will allow you to predict the next evensts with 100 percent accuracy. You wouldn't be albe to do that till infinity or whatever. I'm just saying it makes it more likely that you can tell if a flush is goiing ot complete, etc. etc.

And casinos make billions of dollars a year because of dumb tourists who stand on 16's versus a dealer showing ten. Or who makke the sucker bets at craps.

Re: Problem with your book
 

[ QUOTE ]
smart roulette

[/ QUOTE ]

This reminds me of that commercial that says, "if you gamble for fun, you've already won!" I hate the way the casinos trick people into believing that you can lose money over the long run, but it is ok if you can play smart and have fun. I'm sorry, but to me long run losses equal not playing smart and not having fun.

Re: Problem with your book
 

I was going to reply with reasoning but gave up because I don't think it matters.

I really hope this post is a troll. If not, you need to stop gambling.

Re: Problem with your book
 

the only skill to roulette is your maximising your utility.

you can decide how fast you want to lose money at roulette, and in general you that choice is based your utility function.

say i walk in with $1000. if i wanted, i could lose it while playing for days, just betting $1 every time.
but if i wanted i could always bet my stack.

id do whichever yielded more fun, as i know either way im leaving there without a dime if i carry on with either strategy.

(obviously this is very basic and ignoring opp.costs etc, but i think ive made my point)

you have so much to learn if you think the previous roulette results affect the next result.
if you spent time reading and studying, you will look back and think 'i cant believe i used to think that', probably like a lot of us do now.

Re: Problem with your book
 

[ QUOTE ]
the only skill to roulette is your maximising your utility.

you can decide how fast you want to lose money at roulette, and in general you that choice is based your utility function.

say i walk in with $1000. if i wanted, i could lose it while playing for days, just betting $1 every time.
but if i wanted i could always bet my stack.

id do whichever yielded more fun, as i know either way im leaving there without a dime if i carry on with either strategy.

(obviously this is very basic and ignoring opp.costs etc, but i think ive made my point)

you have so much to learn if you think the previous roulette results affect the next result.
if you spent time reading and studying, you will look back and think 'i cant believe i used to think that', probably like a lot of us do now.

[/ QUOTE ]

Alright, enough about roulette, this is a poker board and obvisly you guys don't understand roulette. But I can't beleve you don't understand about probability.

Re: Problem with your book
 

im a roulette guy myself. don't listen to these idiots.

Re: Problem with your book
 

[ QUOTE ]
im a roulette guy myself. don't listen to these idiots.

[/ QUOTE ]

Thank You.

Re: Problem with your book
 

See: gambler's fallacy.

Re: Problem with your book
 

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
im a roulette guy myself. don't listen to these idiots.

[/ QUOTE ]

Thank You.

[/ QUOTE ]

The idea is that since you missed your last 19 flushes, it doesnt mean you REALLY should mad number 20.

The odds of missing 20 flushes in a row are small, but these are separate events and time is a factor.

Your arguments is basically saying "the odds are small that I will miss 20 flushes in a row." This is true. But the statemet "I should make a flush now because I have missed my last 19 and it's very rare to make 20 in a row" is very false.

I think I just got punked.

Re: Problem with your book
 

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
im a roulette guy myself. don't listen to these idiots.

[/ QUOTE ]

Thank You.

[/ QUOTE ]

The idea is that since you missed your last 19 flushes, it doesnt mean you REALLY should mad number 20.

The odds of missing 20 flushes in a row are small, but these are separate events and time is a factor.

Your arguments is basically saying "the odds are small that I will miss 20 flushes in a row." This is true. But the statemet "I should make a flush now because I have missed my last 19 and it's very rare to make 20 in a row" is very false.

I think I just got punked. <font color="white">pwned, moran </font>

[/ QUOTE ]

How can you say one and not the tother? If things didn't even out then probability wouldn't work. Probability does work, things even out, therefore, it is more likely (I"M not saying definite, I'm not even saying VERY likely), just more likely, that something that hasn't happenned in a while, but shoudl have, will happen.

Re: Problem with your book
 

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
im a roulette guy myself. don't listen to these idiots.

[/ QUOTE ]

Thank You.

[/ QUOTE ]

The idea is that since you missed your last 19 flushes, it doesnt mean you REALLY should mad number 20.

The odds of missing 20 flushes in a row are small, but these are separate events and time is a factor.

Your arguments is basically saying "the odds are small that I will miss 20 flushes in a row." This is true. But the statemet "I should make a flush now because I have missed my last 19 and it's very rare to make 20 in a row" is very false.

I think I just got punked.

[/ QUOTE ]

How can you say one and not the tother? If things didn't even out then probability wouldn't work. Probability does work, things even out, therefore, it is more likely (I"M not saying definite, I'm not even saying VERY likely), just more likely, that something that hasn't happenned in a while, but shoudl have, will happen.

[/ QUOTE ]

Again....NO. Now go away. You bother me.

Re: Problem with your book
 

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
im a roulette guy myself. don't listen to these idiots.

[/ QUOTE ]

Thank You.

[/ QUOTE ]

The idea is that since you missed your last 19 flushes, it doesnt mean you REALLY should mad number 20.

The odds of missing 20 flushes in a row are small, but these are separate events and time is a factor.

Your arguments is basically saying "the odds are small that I will miss 20 flushes in a row." This is true. But the statemet "I should make a flush now because I have missed my last 19 and it's very rare to make 20 in a row" is very false.

I think I just got punked.

[/ QUOTE ]

How can you say one and not the tother? If things didn't even out then probability wouldn't work. Probability does work, things even out, therefore, it is more likely (I"M not saying definite, I'm not even saying VERY likely), just more likely, that something that hasn't happenned in a while, but shoudl have, will happen.

[/ QUOTE ]

Again....NO. Now go away. You bother me.

[/ QUOTE ]

If you don't have anything consturctive too say you dont have to say anything.

Re: Problem with your book
 

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
im a roulette guy myself. don't listen to these idiots.

[/ QUOTE ]

Thank You.

[/ QUOTE ]

The idea is that since you missed your last 19 flushes, it doesnt mean you REALLY should mad number 20.

The odds of missing 20 flushes in a row are small, but these are separate events and time is a factor.

Your arguments is basically saying "the odds are small that I will miss 20 flushes in a row." This is true. But the statemet "I should make a flush now because I have missed my last 19 and it's very rare to make 20 in a row" is very false.

I think I just got punked.

[/ QUOTE ]

How can you say one and not the tother? If things didn't even out then probability wouldn't work. Probability does work, things even out, therefore, it is more likely (I"M not saying definite, I'm not even saying VERY likely), just more likely, that something that hasn't happenned in a while, but shoudl have, will happen.

[/ QUOTE ]

Again....NO. Now go away. You bother me.

[/ QUOTE ]

If you don't have anything consturctive too say you dont have to say anything.

[/ QUOTE ]

It's TO, not too. If you can't master basic grammar, don't expect to be able to wrap your brain around this tricky probability stuff. It's pretty advanced.

Re: Problem with your book
 

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
im a roulette guy myself. don't listen to these idiots.

[/ QUOTE ]

Thank You.

[/ QUOTE ]

The idea is that since you missed your last 19 flushes, it doesnt mean you REALLY should mad number 20.

The odds of missing 20 flushes in a row are small, but these are separate events and time is a factor.

Your arguments is basically saying "the odds are small that I will miss 20 flushes in a row." This is true. But the statemet "I should make a flush now because I have missed my last 19 and it's very rare to make 20 in a row" is very false.

I think I just got punked.

[/ QUOTE ]

How can you say one and not the tother? If things didn't even out then probability wouldn't work. Probability does work, things even out, therefore, it is more likely (I"M not saying definite, I'm not even saying VERY likely), just more likely, that something that hasn't happenned in a while, but shoudl have, will happen.

[/ QUOTE ]

Again....NO. Now go away. You bother me.

[/ QUOTE ]

If you don't have anything consturctive too say you dont have to say anything.

[/ QUOTE ]

It's TO, not too. If you can't master basic grammar, don't expect to be able to wrap your brain around this tricky probability stuff. It's pretty advanced.

[/ QUOTE ]

You wana play heads up? I'll play you on Party Poker right now.

Re: Problem with your book
 

I don't play poker. Just roulette. I find a wheel that's spun black five times in a row, bet big on red, and win everytime. I'm rich.

Re: Problem with your book
 

[ QUOTE ]
I don't play poker. Just roulette. I find a wheel that's spun black five times in a row, bet big on red, and win everytime. I'm rich.

[/ QUOTE ]

Thats what I thought, afraid to put your money where your mouth is. If you do decide to grow some balls, I'm free till about 3:20, and then again after 4:30.

Re: Problem with your book
 

Always, i mean always, bet on black.

Re: Problem with your book
 

[ QUOTE ]
Always, i mean always, bet on black.

[/ QUOTE ]

Thats just silly.

Re: Problem with your book
 

Not according to Wesley Snipes, one of the most successful movie-star / roulette players out there.

Re: Problem with your book
 

We should be deleting the trolls... not feeding them. [img]/images/graemlins/frown.gif[/img]

Re: Problem with your book
 

[ QUOTE ]
Not according to Wesley Snipes, one of the most successful movie-star / roulette players out there.

[/ QUOTE ]

Whatever.

Re: Problem with your book
 

The preferred method of settling a retarded dispute on this site is to challenge your opponent to a HU match.

And from what you're saying, you think that if you flipped a fair coin 99 times and got H for everyone, that somehow affects the P of a H (or T) on the 100th flip?

Re: Problem with your book
 

Midnight is correct. Wesley Snipes actually has a great book out on the subject, called How To Win at Roulette and Throw a Nigga From an Airplane. Fascinating read.

Re: Problem with your book
 

[ QUOTE ]


And from what you're saying, upi think that if you flipped a fair coin 99 times and got H for everyone, that somehow affects the P of a H (or T) on the 100th flip?

[/ QUOTE ]

I would think that would be obvious by this point.

Re: Problem with your book
 

Master, I really don't play online, but thank you for the offer.

Re: Problem with your book
 

You know..they have roulette simulators.
Here's what you do. Set it up to place a $5 bet on the roullete wheel on a color whenever that color has not rolled on the 5 previous rolls. Now, double that bet whenever it loses...since it is less and less likely to lose, you will HAVE to win at some point, right?
Go ahead, try it...see how long your 1k bankroll lasts.

Re: Problem with your book
 

If I repost this in the Books/Publication/Software forum, will I get a better answer?

Re: Problem with your book
 

If you keep posting this rubbish, you will get a better answer in exactly zero of the sections on two plus two. Try it.

Re: Problem with your book
 

[ QUOTE ]
You know..they have roulette simulators.
Here's what you do. Set it up to place a $5 bet on the roullete wheel on a color whenever that color has not rolled on the 5 previous rolls. Now, double that bet whenever it loses...since it is less and less likely to lose, you will HAVE to win at some point, right?
Go ahead, try it...see how long your 1k bankroll lasts.

[/ QUOTE ]

Where can I find one?

Re: Problem with your book
 

Edit: I seriously think the OP is a troll after reading most of the thread.

If you flip a fair coin and it lands tail 19 times in a row

on the 20th flip the odds of it being heads are 50%

no more, no less.

The reason long term probabilities work is not because each tail makes an upcoming heads "more likely" but because a long term span will also eventually include a period of time where it comes 19 heads in a row.