KJ hand
 

BB is 70/11/3.3A F
UTG1 is 21/11/2.5 AF

PokerStars 0.05/0.10 Hold'em (9 handed) Hand History Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com (Format: 2+2 Forums)

Preflop: Hero is Button with J[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], K[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img].
<font color="#666666">1 fold</font>, UTG+1 calls, <font color="#666666">4 folds</font>, Hero calls, <font color="#666666">1 fold</font>, <font color="#CC3333">BB raises</font>, UTG+1 calls, Hero calls.

Flop: (6.40 SB) 3[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], 7[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], J[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(3 players)</font>
<font color="#CC3333">BB bets</font>, <font color="#CC3333">UTG+1 raises</font>, Hero...

Re: KJ hand
 

Tricky situation. UTG+1 has a jack. The question is how often does he have a better jack? Given his stats I think JT and QJ are reasonable assumptions. And AJ is not so likely because he would have raised PF.
So, I think a 3-bet is good here.

Re: KJ hand
 

Raise preflop the first time, duder. I 3bet the flop, but I'm pretty sad if it gets capped.

Re: KJ hand
 

Also, how many hands are your stats over?

Re: KJ hand
 

Thanks. The stats are over 100 hands.
And yeah, i probably should have raised pf. Uff.

I was sad too, because BB capped after i 3popped. UTG folds. And i just called down.

Re: KJ hand
 

No. I wouldnt call down unless you hit a K on the turn. I would call the flop cap but fold the turn UI.

Re: KJ hand
 

[ QUOTE ]
No. I wouldnt call down unless you hit a K on the turn. I would call the flop cap but fold the turn UI.

[/ QUOTE ]

Re: KJ hand
 

[ QUOTE ]
Thanks. The stats are over 100 hands.
And yeah, i probably should have raised pf. Uff.

I was sad too, because BB capped after i 3popped. UTG folds. And i just called down.

[/ QUOTE ]

If BB caps two people on a dry board, you'll likely have odds to draw on the turn, but I think you'll be able to fold the river.

Re: KJ hand
 

I see. You are getting 9-to-1 on the turn here, maybe 10-to-1 with implied odds. So a turn call is fine I guess.

Re: KJ hand
 

What do you think he caps with?

This is a set just about always; 33 is just the right thing a 70/10/3.3 is raising from the BB. (Note, that his pfr range is relatively reasonable, so he wouldn't raise J3 or J7) I think we are close to drawing dead.
The only reason to keep going is that (a) We might hit a K on the turn (this wouldn't make him a FH and takes care of the slim chance that he's indeed got nothing more than 2pr) and (b) no more raising, maybe even UGT+1 folding. Any of that not happening, and I think I saved a very solid BB. Even with K or J hitting, I'd do nothing more than call down.

Re: KJ hand
 

His AF of 3.3 is very high. But that says even more that he is NOT capping only his sets, but also his top pair, two pair, overpair etc.
Including the PFR into the analysis, I think this is more like an overpair than a set, maybe jack/ace kicker.

Re: KJ hand
 

That is right, however, he raises reasonably. That's the problem, imho. So, 2pair is just about impossible here (well, yeah, never say never, but still...) for him, as I don't see someone who has 10% pfr to raise J7s.

Leaves AJ, KJ, QJ, JT(maybe), 33, 77, (TT)JJ+ as his plausible holdings.

With those, we are behind often, pretty bad behind 33, 77, JJ, KK and AJ.

Re: KJ hand
 

I would raise this preflop. With a few or less limpers you want to isolate if you can. If the blinds will fold you should raise to get it short handed with KJo.

I would 3-bet the flop. BB's bet doesn't mean crap. UTG's bet might mean something, but his stats look taggy. Is that a fair read? If so he could be raising a worse hand thank TP2K and I 3-bet.

If he's a thinking player he will want to isolate BB because he's probably betting light. Thus he could be raising a lot more and you have to three bet.

Re: KJ hand
 

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
No. I wouldnt call down unless you hit a K on the turn. I would call the flop cap but fold the turn UI.

[/ QUOTE ]

[/ QUOTE ]

with those stats over 100 hands I'm showing down TP2K unless the board turns to crap. Dude looks like a maniac. He could be jamming jx here.

edit: i just read the above posts and the read that he raises reasonably preflop. So i change my opinion to see the turn and fold unimproved on the river.

Re: KJ hand
 

I have a hard time letting this one go. The BB raised 2 limpers; you don't have to have a top 11% hand to do that; you have to have more than crud. He probably thinks he's up against drawing hands or small pairs. His range could be huge.

Re: KJ hand
 

[ QUOTE ]
And AJ is not so likely because he would have raised

[/ QUOTE ]

AJo would usually be open limped in ep, but AJs would be raised. Villain could still have AJo. I'm still 3-betting here.

Re: KJ hand
 

I didn´t raise pf, cuz i thought since BB was loose, i couldn´t get it heads up. I also remember SSHE saying something like "also consider who has limped before you when playing this hand". I was trying to think whether i was behind to UTG or not. So i just called.

Re: KJ hand
 

AJo/s is either way. Some limp, some raise. Good arguments for both sides. As he's on the aggressive side (and with 11% has a reasonable, though relatively broad, pfr range) he'll likely raise AJo/s.

Re: KJ hand
 

[ QUOTE ]
I see. You are getting 9-to-1 on the turn here, maybe 10-to-1 with implied odds. So a turn call is fine I guess.

[/ QUOTE ]

I'm counting a little over 7.5-1BB immediate pot odds. 9-1BB if its capped.

Wookie, If capped, aren't we only counting 3 outs to the K on the turn? That would be about 15:1, and if the flop had been capped, we'd be getting 11:1 pot odds. Even with IO, wouldn't this be a -EV play?

Should we not be taking the WA/WB line from the turn (unless the flop was not capped, and we're checked to)?

Re: KJ hand
 

[ QUOTE ]
AJo/s is either way. Some limp, some raise. Good arguments for both sides. As he's on the aggressive side (and with 11% has a reasonable, though relatively broad, pfr range) he'll likely raise AJo/s.

[/ QUOTE ]

The AF takes into account his post-flop aggression. His pf raising stats are somewhat standard aren't they?

Re: KJ hand
 

[ QUOTE ]
That is right, however, he raises reasonably. That's the problem, imho. So, 2pair is just about impossible here (well, yeah, never say never, but still...) for him, as I don't see someone who has 10% pfr to raise J7s.

Leaves AJ, KJ, QJ, JT(maybe), 33, 77, (TT)JJ+ as his plausible holdings.

With those, we are behind often, pretty bad behind 33, 77, JJ, KK and AJ.

[/ QUOTE ]
Alright. Now this problem comes down to WA/WB. On the turn we are getting 10-to-2 on a call-down meaning we have to be good more than 17% of the time. For some reason I cant stove any more. And Im too lazy to do the combo maths at the moment.
But I estimate that calling down isnt +EV.

Re: KJ hand
 

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
AJo/s is either way. Some limp, some raise. Good arguments for both sides. As he's on the aggressive side (and with 11% has a reasonable, though relatively broad, pfr range) he'll likely raise AJo/s.

[/ QUOTE ]

The AF takes into account his post-flop aggression. His pf raising stats are somewhat standard aren't they?

[/ QUOTE ]

Yes, but only if you are iso-raising and blind-stealing. If you don't do that and go striktly by SSHE for tight games, you'll end up with 6% or so.

That AF takes in post-flop aggression, is fine. There's no reason to assume that an aggrop post-flop player will be a pussy pre-flop, especially if he raises 11% of his hands.

Re: KJ hand
 

11,099,676 games 0.328 secs 33,840,475 games/sec

Board: 3h 7c Js
Dead:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 37.940% 33.59% 04.35% 3727853 483309.17 { KsJc }
Hand 1: 17.681% 16.94% 00.74% 1880549 81931.67 { 66+, A3s+, K7s+, Q9s+, J9s+, T9s, A8o+, KTo+, QTo+, JTo }
Hand 2: 44.380% 40.37% 04.01% 4480806 445227.17 { 99+, 77, 33, AJs, KJs, QJs, JTs, AJo, KJo, QJo, JTo }

And that's not even accounting that UTG raised, i.e. probably doesn't have 66 here.

Re: KJ hand
 

Why Hand 1? UTG+1 folded BBs flop cap.
Can you do this without Hand 1, please?

Edit: and instead of 99+ maybe JJ+?

Re: KJ hand
 

Oh, sorry.

Text results appended to pokerstove.txt

71,280 games 0.005 secs 14,256,000 games/sec

Board: 3h 7c Js
Dead:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 52.337% 47.53% 04.81% 33880 3426.00 { KsJc }
Hand 1: 47.663% 42.86% 04.81% 30548 3426.00 { 99+, 77, 33, AJs, KJs, QJs, J9s+, AJo, KJo, QJo, J9o+ }


Without J9o/s:

Text results appended to pokerstove.txt

63,360 games 0.005 secs 12,672,000 games/sec

Board: 3h 7c Js
Dead:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 48.393% 43.21% 05.18% 27379 3282.50 { KsJc }
Hand 1: 51.607% 46.43% 05.18% 29416 3282.50 { 99+, 77, 33, AJs, KJs, QJs, JTs, AJo, KJo, QJo, JTo }

Without JTs/o:

Text results appended to pokerstove.txt

55,440 games 0.005 secs 11,088,000 games/sec

Board: 3h 7c Js
Dead:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 43.321% 37.66% 05.66% 20878 3139.00 { KsJc }
Hand 1: 56.679% 51.02% 05.66% 28284 3139.00 { 99+, 77, 33, AJs, KJs, QJs, AJo, KJo, QJo }


further reducing 99:

Text results appended to pokerstove.txt

49,500 games 0.005 secs 9,900,000 games/sec

Board: 3h 7c Js
Dead:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 37.768% 31.43% 06.34% 15556 3139.00 { KsJc }
Hand 1: 62.232% 55.89% 06.34% 27666 3139.00 { TT+, 77, 33, AJs, KJs, QJs, AJo, KJo, QJo }

and TT:

Text results appended to pokerstove.txt

43,560 games 0.005 secs 8,712,000 games/sec

Board: 3h 7c Js
Dead:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 30.700% 23.49% 07.21% 10234 3139.00 { KsJc }
Hand 1: 69.300% 62.09% 07.21% 27048 3139.00 { JJ+, 77, 33, AJs, KJs, QJs, AJo, KJo, QJo }

I have no idea why it's only so few games per try [img]/images/graemlins/frown.gif[/img]

Re: KJ hand
 

Thanks. Looks like a call down to me now.
Edit: Might be "Enumerate all" instead of "Monte Carlo" which is fine.