how about this
 

I raise a bad limper with QJhh, BB is a tag who calls, limper calls.

flop A[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]J[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]2[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]
checks to me I bet, bb raises, limper folds, I call

turn 6[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]
bb bets, I call

river 9[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]
bb bets


please rank the three choices.

also if your choice is fold I would be very interested to hear approx ranges for raise/call/fold.

Re: how about this
 

edit: whoops misread hand disregard

Re: how about this
 

F Looks like he has an Ace
C He might do this with MP worse kicker, or a flush draw
R He's unlikely to call a raise with anything you beat or fold anything that beats you.

Re: how about this
 

When the BB bets the turn - if I decided I didn't know what to do on a blank river, I would probably raise the turn. That line (call flop c/r, raise turn) really looks strong. I would expect him to slow down with a weak ace and only 3-bet with hands we can fold to a river blank (and raise a river heart). So I guess I would "FSDR" the turn. That's because I don't know if I would fold this river.

"BB is a TAG" - well if this guy can read hands and he bets this river then we should fold. He has to be pushing us off QQ/KK if he thinks this play is good.

If I'm going to raise, it's the turn. If I'm going to fold or call, it's obv. on the river and I would say it really depends on how i've been playing. Are you very tight jba? What range could I put you on to have called both these streets? I feel like I shouldn't NOT be value betting.

If not, I should be c/r'ing. Is he tricky?

Re: how about this
 

how about some questions from villains perspective:

how low are you 3betting here with pocket pairs?

how are you playing hands like J9/JT here?

how about bad aces like A3?

Re: how about this
 

How are those from villains POV? Nobody 3-bet, right?

Re: how about this
 

[ QUOTE ]
How are those from villains POV? Nobody 3-bet, right?

[/ QUOTE ]


i'm just trying to determine villains range - he probably doesnt have a hand like TT because of preflop is my point.

Re: how about this
 

Yeah we're looking at Ax, Jx, clubs, possible a baby set. What I'm wondering though is what he thinks betting on the river with is good. Say he has JT - does he think betting this river with JT against you is good? What worse hand is calling? What better hand is folding?

The thing is, his flop range and turn range are the same, essentially. People typically don't fold to c/r's for 1 sb so he can't assume that changes anything. When he bets the river, does his range change? I don't know, so I would raise the turn against a wide range. One that I might be ahead of. And one that might not even let him 3-bet the best hand.

But now that we're at the river, the onyl real question is can he read your hand well. On the simplest terms this is most likely a fold.

Re: how about this
 

Is it weird that I think a c/r from BB with Ax is really stupid against Hero's action?

Re: how about this
 

I don't know but my brain hurts whenever I think about ace high flops in these hands. I think I'm just going to start 3-betting the flop with anything.

Re: how about this
 

[ QUOTE ]
Yeah we're looking at Ax, Jx, clubs, possible a baby set. What I'm wondering though is what he thinks betting on the river with is good. Say he has JT - does he think betting this river with JT against you is good? What worse hand is calling? What better hand is folding?

The thing is, his flop range and turn range are the same, essentially. People typically don't fold to c/r's for 1 sb so he can't assume that changes anything. When he bets the river, does his range change? I don't know, so I would raise the turn against a wide range. One that I might be ahead of. And one that might not even let him 3-bet the best hand.

But now that we're at the river, the onyl real question is can he read your hand well. On the simplest terms this is most likely a fold.

[/ QUOTE ]

Exactly what I was thinking. Word for word.

Re: how about this
 

Kwaz,

Enjoy my internet high five.

Re: how about this
 

danza/kwaz,

so do you guys want to fold KK too? A5?

Re: how about this
 

[ QUOTE ]
danza/kwaz,

so do you guys want to fold KK too? A5?

[/ QUOTE ]

I can't speak for Danza but I don't think his river betting range narrows enough (especially without a super read) to throw away 7:1.

Once I was at the river, I'd hate it, but I'd call and expect to lose 6/7 times.

Re: how about this
 

I'm taking both of those to showdown. But how I have not considered. Cheaply with KK, with A5 probably too.

Re: how about this
 

see that's the confusing part - you both want to call there and I do too. the problem is there are exactly two things we hope to see when we call with something a very weak hand on the end:

1. a lesser hand being bet for value
2. a bluff

obviously #2 isn't affected at all by our holding but #1 is. The difference between KK and QJ here is exactly and only KJ, right? is QJ that close of a decision?


the tangent that I really want to consider regardless of our holding: as a rough estimate, what % of villains range consists of better hands that are bet-folding? obviously impossible to know but how often do you expect something like A5 to bet/fold here?

Re: how about this
 

I think if you raise on the river it's pretty much a "wtf" call. How can you bet/fold this river? I never would. You have either A9 or are trying to bluff me.

I guess what differs is that I wouldn't play your hand like you did.

But the real question is what WORSE hand does he bet for value? What does he reasonably bluff both streets with? So then shouldn't we always raise the turn when we are commiting ourself to showdown? Or 3-bet the flop for a free card play?

Re: how about this
 

I think we lose too much value playing the hand any other way.

Raising the turn seems better only because we are ahead of his range a little more after a turn bet than a river bet.
But the value of raising, or 3betting the flop or whatever line you choose to regain initiative is immediately chewed up by the value you lose from the bluffs that can no longer continue to bluff.

Re: how about this
 

JT (or Jx) is such a no-mans land spot for him on the river that betting isn't a bad play IMO. C/F might be an ok play, but nobody ever really does that; and C/C stinks.
I kinda like raising the turn myself.

Re: how about this
 

Kwaz most people are smart enough not to bluff this AJx flop and not to keep betting after we keep calling. I think it's nice to put in some more action so that you can make a "sure thing" fold later in the hand or so you can take your possibly best hand to showdown for cheap.

Re: how about this
 

3-bet the flop, take the free turn card, call any none club river and avoid all this pondering! We are looking at an A or a flushdraw often but some of the time a TAG will realize your move on the limper and c/r any hand on an A high board. By just calling we have taken the worst road by creating odds to convince us to call the river.

Re: how about this
 

I just don't get why we would take the free turn card in that spot, although it would look very much like a flush draw which could induce river bluffs on blanks and river checks with aces when a club falls. So maybe it's awesome.

Re: how about this
 

I think it is more questionable to call the river than to check the turn. If villain calls the flop 3-bet, then I think we are behind more often than we are ahead, so I go for the free card. Calling the river bet is very read based, but in any event this line is cheaper than call/call/call and we can get a raise in if we hit on the river.