BB KK into a 3 way flop.. grumble!
 

Unfortunately this only my 2nd orbit at the table so my
reads were useless...

I'm feeling like this was a good fold, but it hurt to do.. thoughts?

Poker Stars
Limit Holdem Ring game
Limit: $0.25/$0.5
9 players
Converter

Pre-flop: (9 players) Hero is BB with K[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] K[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]
UTG folds, <font color="#cc0000">UTG+1 raises</font>, MP1 folds, MP2 calls, MP3 folds, CO calls, 2 folds, <font color="#cc0000">Hero 3-bets</font>, UTG+1 calls, MP2 calls, CO calls.

Flop: 8[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] 2[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] A[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] (12.4SB, 4 players)
Hero checks, <font color="#cc0000">UTG+1 bets</font>, MP2 calls, CO folds, Hero folds.

Re: BB KK into a 3 way flop.. grumble!
 

meh it suck i know but your probable right. Against 2 peeps id lead the flop. id like to here the response on this too.

Re: BB KK into a 3 way flop.. grumble!
 

Bet the flop, see what happenes. If UTG raised with JJ pf and you check the flop, he'll often take a shot. If you bet and it comes back raised, I call (then having more evidence that I'm behind, yet having odds to draw to two outs) and fold the turn ui.

Re: BB KK into a 3 way flop.. grumble!
 

Bet flop.

Re: BB KK into a 3 way flop.. grumble!
 

[ QUOTE ]
Bet flop.

[/ QUOTE ]

Re: BB KK into a 3 way flop.. grumble!
 

You just gave the pot to the guy. I would at least fight for this pot. You represented strength before the flop and have the initiative so you can represent the A and see what happens.

Re: BB KK into a 3 way flop.. grumble!
 

[ QUOTE ]
You just gave the pot to the guy. I would at least fight for this pot. You represented strength before the flop and have the initiative so you can represent the A and see what happens.

[/ QUOTE ]

This all makes sense, but I'm still having trouble with the concept.. I feel like, with two callers, one likely has an ace, so the only way to win this pot is to push them off their better hand. Or am I wrong in my analysis?

-Chry

Re: BB KK into a 3 way flop.. grumble!
 

[ QUOTE ]
You just gave the pot to the guy. I would at least fight for this pot. You represented strength before the flop and have the initiative so you can represent the A and see what happens.

[/ QUOTE ]
also if you only bet the Axx flop when you have the ace then you probably wont get paid off very well on said hands if you have somewhat observant opponents

Re: BB KK into a 3 way flop.. grumble!
 

[ QUOTE ]
I feel like, with two callers, one likely has an ace,

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The other way around: It's not unlikely that one has an ace. If they have it or not, you can't find out if you're not betting. UTG+1 raised KQs, MP2 coldcalled with 99 because he doesn't like 3betting them and hopes that his cold call will get other into the pot as well so that he can make $$$ when he hits his set.

Re: BB KK into a 3 way flop.. grumble!
 

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
You just gave the pot to the guy. I would at least fight for this pot. You represented strength before the flop and have the initiative so you can represent the A and see what happens.

[/ QUOTE ]
also if you only bet the Axx flop when you have the ace then you probably wont get paid off very well on said hands if you have somewhat observant opponents

[/ QUOTE ]

Also: 12.4SB

Re: BB KK into a 3 way flop.. grumble!
 

Bet the flop. Someone correct me if this is not correct but with four other callers in the pot there is a only a 50% chance that someone has an Ace. That means that half the time you have the best hand and a fair percentage of the time the person with the Ace will have an iffy kicker. At these limits some people will cold-call with A-rag suited so maybe a bet will get them to make "the smart laydown". You showed strength pre-flop so take a shot. Call a single raise (fold to a reraise) then check-fold if you don't hit on the turn. Don't be afraid to lose a bet here and there. Poker's just like work - you have to spend money to make money. But don't get foolish.

Re: BB KK into a 3 way flop.. grumble!
 

BEFORE READING THE POSTS:
WTF is up with the flop check???

AFTER READING THE POSTS:
WFT is up with the flop check???

Re: BB KK into a 3 way flop.. grumble!
 

grunch
without reads how can you put UTG+1 on an A?

BET FLOP, call a raise, and re evaluate on turn.

That being said, folding KK on the flop, you are a better man than I sir.

Re: BB KK into a 3 way flop.. grumble!
 

:grunch:

I dunno actually. He called your 3-bet preflop but didn't cap. He's OOP so you can bet he's on a strong hand but he'd have capped if he was on AA. Seems to me he's probably on AK or AQs

So yeah, you probably were right to fold this. I mean, what would an UTG+1 call a 3bet with except Ace big?

sucks.

Re: BB KK into a 3 way flop.. grumble!
 

[ QUOTE ]
I mean, what would an UTG+1 call a 3bet with except Ace big?

[/ QUOTE ]

Any hand he raised with. Which is quite a bit: TT+ AJs+ KQ
If he's loose, he might raise with a lot more. Don't assume them to play like you ('cause they don't) - that applies to many of your posts. You often say something like "Yeah, good fold - he must have a higher x - how could he play the way he did otherwise?" Well, exactly THIS is something you DON'T have to worry about. [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]

Re: BB KK into a 3 way flop.. grumble!
 

[ QUOTE ]


Well, exactly THIS is something you DON'T have to worry about. [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]

[/ QUOTE ]

not entirely sure what you mean. do you mean we don't have to worry about the players who play roughly 'like we do' (i.e., sensibly) ? so then the issue is what is crazy fish playing?

i find it difficult to account for entirely wonky players. i mean, when i read these posts and grunch them, i can only assume villain is not a total fish, raising pre-flop with 72os. I spose I assume players are sensible and then think of the a) the hands we fear and b) the liklihood of those hands given their play in that hand.

I guess that when I grunch I think about what 'reasonable' hands the villain might have and how hero should play the specific situation. of course it's always possible the villain is a maniac but surely the most sensible way to grunch is to assume a reasonable level of play? there's no defense from maniac suck-outs anyway...

Re: BB KK into a 3 way flop.. grumble!
 

No, we don't have to worry about trying to understand how someone comes to the realization that he should raise his 72o preflop. They just do sometimes.
That fact, that they do raise it sometimes, we should incorporate in our assessment of the situation. Of course, a raise often means a strong hand, but not every time - not nearly as often as lines like

[ QUOTE ]
He's OOP so you can bet he's on a strong hand but he'd have capped if he was on AA. Seems to me he's probably on AK or AQs [...]So yeah, you probably were right to fold this. I mean, what would an UTG+1 call a 3bet with except Ace big?

[/ QUOTE ]

insinuate. Don't assume too much.

We don't know that he would have capped AA, in fact, many fish don't because they don't want to "loose customers", they don't "want to give their hand away" and whatever other crazyness crossses their mind.
We can guess villains likely range and try going from there. "Villain must have ... otherwise he would have ..." will definitely loose you money. Money you could have won and money you shouldn't have lost.

Of course you should think about what reasonable hands villain might hold - that's the whole point - but there's a huge area of grey between "reasonable level of play" and "villain is a maniac". It just seemed to me that you kind of "fluctuate" between two extrema: In that n00b-post, you start with how fishy our opponents are, and now you assume every raise to mean AA... [img]/images/graemlins/wink.gif[/img]

Re: BB KK into a 3 way flop.. grumble!
 

fair point, cheers [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]

Re: BB KK into a 3 way flop.. grumble!
 

Grunch:
Lead the flop and this hand plays differently. If villain raises and you get a cold caller or 2 you may get sufficient pot odds to draw to your likely 2 outer. If you dont then its an easy fold.

Re: BB KK into a 3 way flop.. grumble!
 

Bet the flop. The pot is large, you might have the best hand, and even if you don't, the guy who cold-called preflop with A3o doesn't know that; give him a chance to fold.

Re: BB KK into a 3 way flop.. grumble!
 

[ QUOTE ]
the guy who cold-called preflop with A3o doesn't know that; give him a chance to fold.

[/ QUOTE ]

hahahahahahahahaha

did I mention

hahahahahahahahaha?

Re: BB KK into a 3 way flop.. grumble!
 

*grunch*

Hero should bet the flop.

Re: BB KK into a 3 way flop.. grumble!
 

Normally I read threads before I respond, to avoid repeating other veterans' analyses. In this case the HH made me throw up in my mouth and Poker Gestalt's response made me throw up on my keyboard so I'll have to make an exception.

YOU MUST C-BET THIS FLOP; IF YOU GET CALLED IN MORE THAN ONE PLACE, YOU CAN CONSIDER....CONSIDER....C/F'ING THE TURN TO A BET AND A CALL. IF YOU ONLY GET CALLED BY UTG+1, YOU'RE WA/WB AND YOU C/C THE TURN AND B/F THE RIVER. IF UTG+1 RAISES YOU, CALLDOWN.

Seriously, this is one of the most fundamental plays in the micro playbook. If you're screwing this one up, you're setting money afire.

[i]Edit: now I've read the rest of the thread, and have 2 comments. One, anybody saying that this was a good play should reconsider their future in poker. Two, [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] Absolution.

Re: BB KK into a 3 way flop.. grumble!
 

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
the guy who cold-called preflop with A3o doesn't know that; give him a chance to fold.

[/ QUOTE ]

hahahahahahahahaha

[/ QUOTE ]

???

Re: BB KK into a 3 way flop.. grumble!
 

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
the guy who cold-called preflop with A3o doesn't know that; give him a chance to fold.

[/ QUOTE ]

hahahahahahahahaha

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???

[/ QUOTE ]

Nobody is folding aces here.

Re: BB KK into a 3 way flop.. grumble!
 

[ QUOTE ]
Nobody is folding aces here.

[/ QUOTE ]

OP check-folded kings on the theory that somebody "had" to have an ace; I don't see why a weak ace couldn't read a lead by Hero and a call by UTG as proof positive that he must be up against AK or AA. It's also possible that UTG will raise with QQ hoping to buy a cheap showdown, facing Mr. A3o with calling two cold.

Re: BB KK into a 3 way flop.. grumble!
 

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Nobody is folding aces here.

[/ QUOTE ]

OP check-folded kings on the theory that somebody "had" to have an ace; I don't see why a weak ace couldn't read a lead by Hero and a call by UTG as proof positive that he must be up against AK or AA. It's also possible that UTG will raise with QQ hoping to buy a cheap showdown, facing Mr. A3o with calling two cold.

[/ QUOTE ]

You're not paying attention. Hero is bet-folding this flop.

1) If UTG raises QQ to knock out A3o, it doesn't matter because Hero is also folding.
2) If UTG does not raise, then A3o is definitely calling to see the turn.

It basically never works out that A3o folds in a way that benefits Hero. Also, it is rare to find a player willing to coldcall with weak aces who will fold when flopping top pair.

Re: BB KK into a 3 way flop.. grumble!
 

[ QUOTE ]
You're not paying attention. Hero is bet-folding this flop.

1) If UTG raises QQ to knock out A3o, it doesn't matter because Hero is also folding.

[/ QUOTE ]

If UTG raises, Hero is getting over 15-1 and should call. He can always check-fold the turn if he misses his set.

[ QUOTE ]
2) If UTG does not raise, then A3o is definitely calling to see the turn.

[/ QUOTE ]

There's a famous Ed Miller post from 2004, "Why you guys aren't crushing these Microlimit games," where he urged 2+2ers to stop folding big pots for one bet. Here's the example hand he used to make his point:

"There was a post just this morning where someone limped in with A3s on the button after two limpers. The big blind raise behind and everyone called. The flop was AQ2, and the action went BB bet, one limper called, and it was your action. You have top frickin pair in a big (i.e. raised) pot, and it is one bet to you. The BB's bet shows no more strength than what he showed when he raised before the flop. He could easily have KQ or TT or 76s. The limper called... that means he has.. well, two cards. You are getting 11-1 on a call, and did I mention that you have top frickin pair?

"And yet half (or more) of the advice told him to fold. TERRIBLE! Horrible, terrible, wretched poker advice. The pot is big, you have a good hand, no one has shown any real strength, and you are gonna bail? Absurd. Yes, sometimes the raiser will have AQ and you'll lose a couple of bets. But the pot is already way bigger than a "couple of bets." And when you have the raiser beaten, he's gonna be the one losing a couple of bets to you when he pays YOU off with his KK or whatever.

"WHEN THE POT IS BIG DO NOT FOLD DECENT HANDS FOR ONE BET! Just stop doing it."

Now granted, this was written back before SSHE got published, so maybe things are different now. Maybe the word's gotten out that you should never fold top pair, weak kicker to one bet on the flop when the pot is big. But I don't believe it.

Re: BB KK into a 3 way flop.. grumble!
 

You are reading too much into it. Think more along the lines of "Ace good, I like." Whatever the reason, people don't fold ace top pairs for one bet, or even two most of the time.

Re: BB KK into a 3 way flop.. grumble!
 

Matt Ruff, there are so many things wrong with this post that my head's about to explode just thinking about it. So, I'm simply going to say:

ZOMG!1!!1!!11!1! Aaron, some nOOb is quoting Ed Miller at you! Are you gonna take that [censored] from him?

Re: BB KK into a 3 way flop.. grumble!
 

[ QUOTE ]
You are reading too much into it. Think more along the lines of "Ace good, I like." Whatever the reason, people don't fold ace top pairs for one bet, or even two most of the time.

[/ QUOTE ]

Hmmm...maybe they've all been reading that famous post by Ed Miller?

Re: BB KK into a 3 way flop.. grumble!
 

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
You are reading too much into it. Think more along the lines of "Ace good, I like." Whatever the reason, people don't fold ace top pairs for one bet, or even two most of the time.

[/ QUOTE ]

Hmmm...maybe they've all been reading that famous post by Ed Miller?

[/ QUOTE ]

Boz, is it possible for you not to use sarcasm (or derision) in a post? [img]/images/graemlins/wink.gif[/img]

Re: BB KK into a 3 way flop.. grumble!
 

[ QUOTE ]
Matt Ruff, there are so many things wrong with this post that my head's about to explode just thinking about it.

[/ QUOTE ]

Well, if you could wrap some baling wire around your skull and then clue me in, I'd appreciate it. (I'll gladly stipulate in advance that I'm a donkey for not noticing that Aaron's reg. date precedes "the famous Ed Miller post" by two years).

Re: BB KK into a 3 way flop.. grumble!
 

[ QUOTE ]
Boz, is it possible for you not to use sarcasm (or derision) in a post? [img]/images/graemlins/wink.gif[/img]

[/ QUOTE ]

Yes...yes, it is. (But, no, not really.)

And, Matt Ruff, I actually started to make a list, but decided that I was mostly picking nits and being snarky, so I erased it. The biggest problem is that this hand and the A3o hand are in no way, shape or form of comprable strength. I'm sure you can work out why (hint: part of the answer is in Ed's second paragraph). (fwiw, I consider the Ed Miller post to be the most oft-mis-applied piece of advice ever given on this forum.) (btw, you're right about at least seeing the turn if raised on the flop, but you shouldn't be planning to call down regardless of the turn action, a la Ed's post.)

Edit: baling wire just gave out:

http://blog.eponymous.org/pics/HeadExplodeBig.gif

(The only reason I responded at all was because you invoked "baling wire".)

Re: BB KK into a 3 way flop.. grumble!
 

[ QUOTE ]
The biggest problem is that this hand and the A3o hand are in no way, shape or form of comprable strength.

[/ QUOTE ]

I think you misunderstood my reason for invoking TFEMP. I wasn't suggesting that OP's KK is anywhere near as strong as A3 would be on a flop like this. But in the hand Ed Miller wrote about, a guy holding ace-rag did exactly what Aaron and Absolution insist a guy holding ace-rag will never do -- folded top pair to a single bet in a large pot. And this was apparently a common enough error, endorsed by numerous 2p2 posters, that Ed felt a need to get all caps about it. Thanks in part to TFEMP, the error may be less common today, but it's still hugely expensive; with 12.4 bets in the pot, KK makes money if he can get A3 to lay down just one time in thirteen.

So I don't think it's nutty to suggest that one of the reasons you bet KK on this flop is to try to get weak aces to fold. If I could redo my initial post I might change A3o to A3s, because I think it's easier for A3s to make the weak-tight play here -- if he called preflop hoping to hit a flush draw, he might regard a rainbow flop as a miss, even though he's still got TFP in a huge pot.

[ QUOTE ]
The only reason I responded at all was because you invoked "baling wire".)

[/ QUOTE ]

Yeah, I figured that'd get you.

Re: BB KK into a 3 way flop.. grumble!
 

[ QUOTE ]
I think you misunderstood my reason for invoking TFEMP. I wasn't suggesting that OP's KK is anywhere near as strong as A3 would be on a flop like this. But in the hand Ed Miller wrote about, a guy holding ace-rag did exactly what Aaron and Absolution insist a guy holding ace-rag will never do -- folded top pair to a single bet in a large pot. And this was apparently a common enough error, endorsed by numerous 2p2 posters, that Ed felt a need to get all caps about it.

[/ QUOTE ]

Actually, I couldn't see any reason to quote Ed, so I defaulted to the side that it's usually quoted for and assumed you were using it to advocate a ritual calldown; in this case that was the wrong side.

The problem with the above line of reasoning is that Ed's post was directed at "good" players who were mis-thinking their advice. TPNK in a big pot is one of those cases where fish routinely make the right play for the wrong reasons, and Ed's post should not be used as evidence that poor players will fold it.

Re: BB KK into a 3 way flop.. grumble!
 

People who cold-call and/or put in multiple bets before the flop with hands like A3 aren't the least bit concerned with what hands the raiser might be holding, and they certainly did not put those bets in only to fold when an Ace hits.

The example above is not the same as when a decent player calls a raise out of the big blind w/ A3s in a 6-way pot and an Ace hits.

Re: BB KK into a 3 way flop.. grumble!
 

[ QUOTE ]

There's a famous Ed Miller post from 2004, "Why you guys aren't crushing these Microlimit games,"


[/ QUOTE ]

orly? link pls!

[ QUOTE ]

IF YOU ONLY GET CALLED BY UTG+1, YOU'RE WA/WB AND YOU C/C THE TURN AND B/F THE RIVER. IF UTG+1 RAISES YOU, CALLDOWN.


[/ QUOTE ]

wow, this is hard to understand [img]/images/graemlins/frown.gif[/img]

you are saying that you are more likely to be good if he just calls then you are when he raises the flop?

so, in the case where he just calls, you are assuming he has the ace but is scared of being out-kicked.

in the case where he raises, you think he is more likely to do this with a hand like QQ/JJ then with AJ.