Early Favorites....who not to bet on and who to pay attention to
 

For the newbies and semi-newbies:
OK...so the first few shows generally bring out a few "spotlight" contestants who the producers try to pimp. There are already a couple from the commercials that the preteens are gonna start to fawn over. But basically, these people are the worst bets in the beginning. They will be so above their market value in the opening lines its not even funny...see Ace from last year as an example. Opened at I believe 24 last year mostly because of his looks and OK voice.

I beieve the key to turning a profit from the beginning is the voices of the mid-pimped contestants. Last year that was Mandisa, Eliot (didnt really get pimped but he wowed in Hollywood), and of course Taylor. I picked up Taylor at 11 last year and held of for dear life. I believe I got Eliot at 4.

Be very careful judging people on their auditions, as the stage brings a whole new dimenstion to things and some people just cant hack it.

Hope to have some info on specific contestants after tonights show.

Happy watching! :-p

Re: Early Favorites....who not to bet on and who to pay attention to
 

remember this as well tank.

it is likely the winner will come from someone NOT pimped at all, than pimped.

case(s) in point--> we did not hear fantasia or kelly clarkston until the finals.

the only reason we saw taylor's tryout last year was because the producers thought he would never advance far. he was considered a novelty that would likely not make it to top 12.

in the case of fantasia, they just plain hid her from us..

Re: Early Favorites....who not to bet on and who to pay attention to
 

[ QUOTE ]
remember this as well tank.

it is likely the winner will come from someone NOT pimped at all, than pimped.

case(s) in point--> we did not hear fantasia or kelly clarkston until the finals.

the only reason we saw taylor's tryout last year was because the producers thought he would never advance far. he was considered a novelty that would likely not make it to top 12.

in the case of fantasia, they just plain hid her from us..

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Hey GM,

I dunno if I would use the word "likely." AI has become so huge that the fanbase has begun to act like sheep and just followed the herd. America likes something shoved down their throats, and the producers have done a much better job lately in showing us who we "should" vote for early on.

What the producers thought about taylor in the beginning is irrelevant. They gave him face time and even kind of played him up as an underdog, which the voting public ate up. Throw in a little talent and you have the winner.

Fact is, with the exception of Eliot, I believe most of, if not all, of the top 10 last year had their audition featured. I think the winner will likely come out of a featured audition, just not one of the "this is the next coming of Whitney Houston" type of things like how the judges fawned over Paris last season.

Re: Early Favorites....who not to bet on and who to pay attention to
 

FWIW, in season 4, all the promos for the very first episode featured Carrie Underwood in that cute pink shirt singing her butt off. I watched the first round of auditions for her, saw her, and picked her to win. They rode that pony the whole way and it paid off. Too bad I don't bet on this. [img]/images/graemlins/frown.gif[/img]

Re: Early Favorites....who not to bet on and who to pay attention to
 

All I know is that this seasons winner isnt from Seattle of Minneapolis

Re: Early Favorites....who not to bet on and who to pay attention to
 

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All I know is that this seasons winner isnt from Seattle of Minneapolis

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hiya rollaJ!!

i have not read the other threads yet, but i sure see the indian boy in top 12. also, if producers feel that it would make for good TV, they will manipulate it so the boy AND his sister are top 12 (maybe top 2).

it is, of course, too early. but these are the 2 that are twitching my idol radar.

of course, we have not seen the winner, as there have been no southern audition shows.

Re: Early Favorites....who not to bet on and who to pay attention to
 

i agree with everything said so far....

great value has been in good singers with nice personalities... and that indian kid (the boy) qualifies big-time (very likable and they'll get his look fixed up somewhat)

and against the slick, marginally talented like ace last year (although he did seem like a nice guy, but he basically was amazing on one song and got 3-1 odds to win very early)

Re: Early Favorites....who not to bet on and who to pay attention to
 

So far I like the NY Giant football player's daughter and that's it.

Indian boy was alright but not nearly as good as Elliott last year singing Stevie Wonder.

Black guy with afro, 6'7" girl, Shakira wannabe, female auto-shop worker, navy guy, all have no chance IMO.

"Crack baby" did not sing as well as the football player daughter girl, but she's got a good backstory and seems likeable so maybe.

Re: Early Favorites....who not to bet on and who to pay attention to
 

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All I know is that this seasons winner isnt from Seattle of Minneapolis

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hiya rollaJ!!

i have not read the other threads yet, but i sure see the indian boy in top 12. also, if producers feel that it would make for good TV, they will manipulate it so the boy AND his sister are top 12 (maybe top 2).

it is, of course, too early. but these are the 2 that are twitching my idol radar.

of course, we have not seen the winner, as there have been no southern audition shows.

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Indian boy will make it through. Girl will be cut at the last possible time before she is presented to the voting public... I think it's when they split them into 3 different rooms or whatever. She'll be in a different room from the bro and he will get through and she will not.

Crackbaby is my fav voice so far. Expect her to go far (but won't win... too much of a Fantasia vibe?)

Jordin Sparks was good, but she won't make it too far because of the backlash that comes from having a privileged upbringing.

Shakira look-alike won't get past the semis. If she does, she will be the 1st one eliminated in the top 12.

There was one girl in Minny... I think her name was Sarah, that got through but flew under the radar. Watch out for her.

Army chick with the 9/11 reference actually has a decent shot, considering how piss-poor the talent pool is this year.

None of the guys have impressed me yet. The one with the afro had a good voice but I found his attitude annoying. He will drop out 7th-4th imo, unless he pulls a Mario.

I placed a prop bet on the winner being o23.5 at -120. The price will only get worse from there as the judges start saying things like "you're too young for this competition" and "you're 16... you can't sing Whitney Houston". The age of the winner has been trending upward, and they raised it in season 4 to 28 because America is out of talent. The only way a younger person can win is if it is a 16 y.o. who just became eligible for the show, but the producers seem very averse to promoting kids (not sure why... maybe the preteens who would buy the album just download it instead?)

I also think a prop on a female winner is the right way to go, but at -140 I'm holding off. The producers will artificially inject parity by putting through some sub-par guys, so there should be a window right at the start of the semis where a female winner is offered at close to even money.

Just my 0.02

Re: Early Favorites....who not to bet on and who to pay attention to
 

I think I would watch the army/navy people closely, they might get a lot more votes than their performance alone call for.

Re: Early Favorites....who not to bet on and who to pay attention to
 

you may or may not realize that the minnesota/seattle people (or most of them) have already been to hollywood and either been cut or put thru.... i think that's right and i think i read that here (if not it was google groups).

moderate spoiler alert........


some of the people you guys are speculating on betting on are already gone.

Re: Early Favorites....who not to bet on and who to pay attention to
 

To me such a big part of the game is being ahead of the market, taking advantage of insider info, etc. that we can't intelligently discuss betting on the show unless we can post spoilers. Are we allowed to?

The only problem I guess is it's a public forum, so by posting it you could cause the line to move. But you gotta figure it will move eventually anyway...

Re: Early Favorites....who not to bet on and who to pay attention to
 

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I think I would watch the army/navy people closely, they might get a lot more votes than their performance alone call for.

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this may have been the case several years ago, but not now. there is as much sympathy/support for servicepeople as there is for GW's politics. sad, but true.

the only army person to ever advance was josh gracin iirc, and he was awful.

Re: Early Favorites....who not to bet on and who to pay attention to
 

[ QUOTE ]
remember this as well tank.

it is likely the winner will come from someone NOT pimped at all, than pimped.

case(s) in point--> we did not hear fantasia or kelly clarkston until the finals.

the only reason we saw taylor's tryout last year was because the producers thought he would never advance far. he was considered a novelty that would likely not make it to top 12.

in the case of fantasia, they just plain hid her from us..

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I don't think that's generally true. Fantasia was the exception. I seem to recall there was lots of focus on Clay/Ruben, McPhee, and Underwood and other major contenders well before the finals, including their first audition for most of them. And I didn't see the first season, but in AI Rewind, Clarkson is also in it plenty early on, unless they edited that in for the Rewind show.

Re: Early Favorites....who not to bet on and who to pay attention to
 

I watched the 1st season after I saw the 2nd, 3rd and 4th, and I remember being shocked how late you see Kelly. I can't remember if you see her first audition anymore, but beyond that she is barely mentioned until the top 10. Then she comes out of nowhere and when it's down to 7 or 8 she's told she can win it by the judges.

Re: Early Favorites....who not to bet on and who to pay attention to
 

I don't think they attempted to hide Clarkson, I think that it was just that her early performances weren't that impressive.

In more recent history, McPhee and Underwood were both very impressive in their first auditions, but they made no attempt to hide them, in fact, they put quite a bit of attention on them.

Re: Early Favorites....who not to bet on and who to pay attention to
 

curious about the auditions comments..... i have only really watched the first and last seasons, but i remember katharine mcphee's audition and thinking she'll be there near the end (last 3 or 4)...

do you think katharine had tried out for idol before and just made it last time? did they have los angeles auditions in previous years??.. just wondering if someone like her or carrie underwood is guaranteed to get thru audition process or if it's just so inefficient doing 12,000 people...

thinking the talent this year has been weak, and that maybe the best talent has already been on the show.... once you "coming to hollywood", can you not try out again?? i.e. can bucky re-audition this year? i thinking NO

Re: Early Favorites....who not to bet on and who to pay attention to
 

From wikipedia:

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Those who are ineligible [to audition] are: those who have current talent representation or a recording contract; have made it to a top 30 on Season 1, top 32 on Seasons 2 and 3, or top 24 on Seasons 4 and 5; or are affiliated with Fox, Fremantle, 19, its sponsors, its affiliates, its subsidies and parent companies; anyone whose age is not in the required age range; and non-US citizens. Even if a person is eligible, he or she may not have a chance to audition or be seen because the show can see only a limited number of people in each city.

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This is in addition to age/residency requirements, as well as other requirements (like revealing previous arrests/criminal record etc.)

Re: Early Favorites....who not to bet on and who to pay attention to
 

thanks for the requirements... so it's top 24-32 depending on the year (based on quick scan).. so you could "you're going to hollywood" more than one year....

Re: Early Favorites....who not to bet on and who to pay attention to
 

Sundance Head, is he the real deal?

Re: Early Favorites....who not to bet on and who to pay attention to
 

The guy with the beard will win. Guarenteed.

Re: Early Favorites....who not to bet on and who to pay attention to
 

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Sundance Head, is he the real deal?

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yes.

Sean Michel is too, he's got crazy vocal range.

Re: Early Favorites....who not to bet on and who to pay attention to
 

Seems like Sundance may be overvalued early on.

Re: Early Favorites....who not to bet on and who to pay attention to
 

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Seems like Sundance may be overvalued early on.

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interesting... i could see him as potential winner, and i haven't seen much better.... that beard has to go, or at least a make-over

Re: Early Favorites....who not to bet on and who to pay attention to
 

I'm not jumping on the Sundance bandwagon just yet. He has a horrible look, and it was a horrible song choice. Granted, he's got the chops, but winning AI is not about being the best singer. Witness Taylor Hicks.

Re: Early Favorites....who not to bet on and who to pay attention to
 

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I'm not jumping on the Sundance bandwagon just yet. He has a horrible look, and it was a horrible song choice.

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you can't be serious?! that was the perfect song to show off his chops!

Re: Early Favorites....who not to bet on and who to pay attention to
 

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I'm not jumping on the Sundance bandwagon just yet. He has a horrible look, and it was a horrible song choice.

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you can't be serious?! that was the perfect song to show off his chops!

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That's not why it's a bad song choice. It's a bad choice, because, along with his look, it says, "I have no intention of becoming a pop idol".

Re: Early Favorites....who not to bet on and who to pay attention to
 

I think Sundance had a good audition and to me is the unquestioned favorite at this early juncture, but it's still way too early to make a judgment on who will actually win the competition.

When I first saw Bo Bice (in the Hollywood round) I was positive he was going to win. I certainly didn't think Taylor would win at his first audition, although to be honest that was the best he sounded for the entire run of the show. Every week I liked his songs/style less and less. Oh well, cashed in on him pretty big.

Sundance will be overvalued when the markets come out, but that does not necessarily mean he will win or not. I can pretty much guarantee, though, that whatever happens the opening price on Sundance will not be the best price at which you'll be able to pick him up.

Re: Early Favorites....who not to bet on and who to pay attention to
 

This may not make a difference, but his name alone will easily make him one of the most well known (or recognizable), regardless of how well he actually does.

Re: Early Favorites....who not to bet on and who to pay attention to
 

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I'm not jumping on the Sundance bandwagon just yet. He has a horrible look, and it was a horrible song choice.

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you can't be serious?! that was the perfect song to show off his chops!

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That's not why it's a bad song choice. It's a bad choice, because, along with his look, it says, "I have no intention of becoming a pop idol".

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oh. yeah, that's a good point.

Re: Early Favorites....who not to bet on and who to pay attention to
 

What did you think about the Justin Timberlake guy? Decent voice, but looks might get him a lot of teeny girl votes.

Re: Early Favorites....who not to bet on and who to pay attention to
 

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What did you think about the Justin Timberlake guy? Decent voice, but looks might get him a lot of teeny girl votes.

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My early favorite is Jenry Bejarano, the 16 year old black guy who looks like Tyson Beckford. He can sing and he will get an awful lot of the female vote.

Re: Early Favorites....who not to bet on and who to pay attention to
 

People like looks for a while. But...you have to be able to sing well. Eventually, everyone starts picking the person that sings the best. I know the 16yo Beckford looking dude could sing good.

I keep telling people they better watch out for that young New York girl with the braces that sings opera. I'm sure I'll get heavily flamed, but you gotta go with your gut. I'm really just thinking of the demographic that will be voting, and I think she'll be able to satisfy that demographic. Dark horse?

Re: Early Favorites....who not to bet on and who to pay attention to
 

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I keep telling people they better watch out for that young New York girl with the braces that sings opera. I'm sure I'll get heavily flamed, but you gotta go with your gut. I'm really just thinking of the demographic that will be voting, and I think she'll be able to satisfy that demographic. Dark horse?

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Don't know about the demographic (she might be a little too edgy-NY for the heartland). But I really liked her voice, especially when she rocked out on the first song. I'll be watching her during the Hollywood rounds.

Re: Early Favorites....who not to bet on and who to pay attention to
 

I dont know but the taller girl of the two friends from NJ? Smoking hot and a much better singer than her friend

Re: Early Favorites....who not to bet on and who to pay attention to
 

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I dont know but the taller girl of the two friends from NJ? Smoking hot and a much better singer than her friend

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I loved how Simon was checking her out when she walked to the side so her friend could audition. He wanted some of that.

Re: Early Favorites....who not to bet on and who to pay attention to
 

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I dont know but the taller girl of the two friends from NJ? Smoking hot and a much better singer than her friend

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I loved how Simon was checking her out when she walked to the side so her friend could audition. He wanted some of that.

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Totally agree, hilarious.

Re: Early Favorites....who not to bet on and who to pay attention to
 

I think Paula may be blowing some of the male contestants in the men's room after they audition.

Re: Early Favorites....who not to bet on and who to pay attention to
 

looked up that girl from canada now living in L.A. and she had a part in either phantom or les miserables here in toronto and she has sung with alannis morisette on stage at a benefit so i think she's a professional.

two questions:

are there any restrictions on professionals? seemingly no.

did that canadian girl have to be a U.S. resident???

FWIW, alot of people seem to think that opera girl from new york was precocious and self-absorbed and that the voters won't like her.

Re: Early Favorites....who not to bet on and who to pay attention to
 

smbruin:

As long as the contestant does not have CURRENT representation or a recording contract, they are eligible (provided they meet other requirements). It makes no difference if they have sung professionally in the past. In fact, you'll notice that those who make it far tend to have a professional music background (Bo Bice)

Contestants must be US Citizens. I would assume then that Ottawa girl has her citizenship, since she seemed pretty upfront about her geographical background.

I agree with you about opera girl, but I don't think it will matter as I don't see her coming close to the top 24.

Here is a link to the eligibility requirements. I will add it to the FAQ:

Rules