am I a winning player?
 

as the subject tells, I want your opinions if you think that i am a winning player based on the following informations:

I played 91 hu matches in the past week, i won 65 of them. so my winn:lose ratio is
1 : 3,0952. do you think that 91 matches are enough to say that i am a continous winning player, or is it possible that it was just luck that i won so many games (i think 3:1 is good, or isnt it?).

thanks for your thoughts,
Maddis

---
(Sorry if there are some spelling mistakes in my posts, i am from germany.)

Re: am I a winning player?
 

It is more likely then not that you are a winning player

Re: am I a winning player?
 

Either way, congrats on the heater.

Re: am I a winning player?
 

If you win 71% of your games then you're a 2.5:1 favorite . You would have to play around 500 heads up matches to be close to your true win rate . This depends on how close you want your confidence level to be . If you really want to know how accurate you are , then please tell me your s.d over 91 matches and I can compute your confidence level . If you aren't sure of how to do this , let me know .

Re: am I a winning player?
 

hi, i am not sure what my s.d is!? can you explain me jay_shark?

Re: am I a winning player?
 

your standard deviation .

I'll create a post on this topic because it takes a bit of time to explain it . On the other hand , there are certain programs that can do this for you .

Re: am I a winning player?
 

i have no program installed atm, but i am thinking of buying pokertracker in the next time

Re: am I a winning player?
 

pokertracker should do the trick .

Re: am I a winning player?
 

[ QUOTE ]
as the subject tells, I want your opinions if you think that i am a winning player based on the following informations:

I played 91 hu matches in the past week, i won 65 of them. so my winn:lose ratio is
1 : 3,0952. do you think that 91 matches are enough to say that i am a continous winning player, or is it possible that it was just luck that i won so many games (i think 3:1 is good, or isnt it?).

thanks for your thoughts,
Maddis

---
(Sorry if there are some spelling mistakes in my posts, i am from germany.)

[/ QUOTE ]

u should be around +-10% of your real winrate after 100 games with 95% confidence... so i make a quick guess here:
winrate % is around 71 +-11% (cause u have less than 100 game)=60,81, quick guess for over 99% confidence is 55,86 (% winrate for sure).
so statistically your are almost surely an over 55 % winner.

Re: am I a winning player?
 

[ QUOTE ]
as the subject tells, I want your opinions if you think that i am a winning player based on the following informations:

I played 91 hu matches in the past week, i won 65 of them. so my winn:lose ratio is
1 : 3,0952. do you think that 91 matches are enough to say that i am a continous winning player, or is it possible that it was just luck that i won so many games (i think 3:1 is good, or isnt it?).

thanks for your thoughts,
Maddis

---
(Sorry if there are some spelling mistakes in my posts, i am from germany.)

[/ QUOTE ]

In HU, I find that you can tell fairly accurately how good you are based on your comfort level / control of the match. If you have a clear plan for every opponent and are only taken out of your comfort zone by a few very good / ultraaggro opponents, then there's no way you are not a winner except perhaps at $550s+, but even there you can find plenty of fish to pad the win%.

Assuming you are a good player with clear gameplans against every opponent, there is essentially a distribution where a portion of them are complete fish with huge holes that you should be able to beat ~90%+ of the time, and then some players vs. whom your edge is very slight / marginal, and probably negative when not playing your A game. And then there are players in the middle with slight holes that are not big enough for you to withstand a very cold deck.

If you were to know roughly this distribution, you could fairly accurately determine your winrate without playing any statistically significant number of games.

Re: am I a winning player?
 

[ QUOTE ]

Quote:
as the subject tells, I want your opinions if you think that i am a winning player based on the following informations:

I played 91 hu matches in the past week, i won 65 of them. so my winn:lose ratio is
1 : 3,0952. do you think that 91 matches are enough to say that i am a continous winning player, or is it possible that it was just luck that i won so many games (i think 3:1 is good, or isnt it?).

thanks for your thoughts,
Maddis

---
(Sorry if there are some spelling mistakes in my posts, i am from germany.)



In HU, I find that you can tell fairly accurately how good you are based on your comfort level / control of the match. If you have a clear plan for every opponent and are only taken out of your comfort zone by a few very good / ultraaggro opponents, then there's no way you are not a winner except perhaps at $550s+, but even there you can find plenty of fish to pad the win%.

Assuming you are a good player with clear gameplans against every opponent, there is essentially a distribution where a portion of them are complete fish with huge holes that you should be able to beat ~90%+ of the time, and then some players vs. whom your edge is very slight / marginal, and probably negative when not playing your A game. And then there are players in the middle with slight holes that are not big enough for you to withstand a very cold deck.

If you were to know roughly this distribution, you could fairly accurately determine your winrate without playing any statistically significant number of games.

[/ QUOTE ]

I disagree with a number of your points.

First of all, it is very hard to win 90 percent of games against a given opponent, even if he is a horrible fish. Even pushing w/ AA preflop and getting called gives you about 80 percent to win. So are you relying on villian maing horrible river calls??

Second, "having a feel" for your skills isn't a good metric. Many fish believe themselves to be excellent. Also, one might feel like a good player because he got lucky and sat with a few fish or had a good run of cards. It's hard to have any sort of certainty about these types of things.

So, in conclusion, the best way to tell if you are a winning player is to play 30+ games and analyze the results using statistics.

Re: am I a winning player?
 

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]

Quote:
as the subject tells, I want your opinions if you think that i am a winning player based on the following informations:

I played 91 hu matches in the past week, i won 65 of them. so my winn:lose ratio is
1 : 3,0952. do you think that 91 matches are enough to say that i am a continous winning player, or is it possible that it was just luck that i won so many games (i think 3:1 is good, or isnt it?).

thanks for your thoughts,
Maddis

---
(Sorry if there are some spelling mistakes in my posts, i am from germany.)



In HU, I find that you can tell fairly accurately how good you are based on your comfort level / control of the match. If you have a clear plan for every opponent and are only taken out of your comfort zone by a few very good / ultraaggro opponents, then there's no way you are not a winner except perhaps at $550s+, but even there you can find plenty of fish to pad the win%.

Assuming you are a good player with clear gameplans against every opponent, there is essentially a distribution where a portion of them are complete fish with huge holes that you should be able to beat ~90%+ of the time, and then some players vs. whom your edge is very slight / marginal, and probably negative when not playing your A game. And then there are players in the middle with slight holes that are not big enough for you to withstand a very cold deck.

If you were to know roughly this distribution, you could fairly accurately determine your winrate without playing any statistically significant number of games.

[/ QUOTE ]

I disagree with a number of your points.

First of all, it is very hard to win 90 percent of games against a given opponent, even if he is a horrible fish. Even pushing w/ AA preflop and getting called gives you about 80 percent to win. So are you relying on villian maing horrible river calls??

Second, "having a feel" for your skills isn't a good metric. Many fish believe themselves to be excellent. Also, one might feel like a good player because he got lucky and sat with a few fish or had a good run of cards. It's hard to have any sort of certainty about these types of things.

So, in conclusion, the best way to tell if you are a winning player is to play 30+ games and analyze the results using statistics.

[/ QUOTE ]

You're right, my comments probably cannot be applicable or useful to every single random player out there. However, for a smart thinking player like I assumed OP to be, feel should be a decent measure. You definitely have to play 20-30 games to get a good range of opponents, but I just don't see any good player ever being comfortable when they're playing a superaggro pro who knows how to fold. Whether you are fish or not, you will feel very uncomfortable. Yours and everyone else points in this thread are very valid - I am just attempting to offer an alternative approach b.c HU is so opponent dependent.

If the player pushes preflop a lot or is very aggressive in general, 90% is certainly impossible. However, most HU fish play too tight and call too much. These players can be worn down and destroyed almost always in a non-Turbo match. I get very upset in the rare occasions a fish like this gets away.