I check and call and fold... all on the flop
 

4 decisions in this hand, and I probably screwed all of them up.

Commercial 20/40. Folded to a hyper-aggro girl in the hijack who borders on maniac but doesn't play total crap hands. She'll open any suited A, any two broadway, any PP from 55+, and decent suited connectors. She's probably a 35/25/12. She bets most streets checked to her, she loves to checkraise, and she stabs at any river on a bluff if there's a minute chance she can take it down.

A lot of the pots she wins are by raising one pair on the turn, and a lot of times when she bets the river and is called she just mucks face down. I have a good read on her because I've played with her a lot, and so far tonight I've 3-bet/isolated her with ATo on the button and won w/o a showdown on a T9762 board; I also check-called her on the river (bluff-inducer) with 77 on a T9833 board. She had A-high.

OK, so I probably just wrote too much there. Anyway she open-raises from the hijack and a tight, older Commerce pro (plays stud sometimes, looks like Blair Rodman but isn't) 3-bets her from the CO.

Button folds and I look down at A[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] K[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] in the SB. I decide to cap it. BB folds and MP/CO call.

Flop comes down J[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] T[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] 5[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]. I check, MP checks, CO bets, I think for a while and call, MP check-raises, CO 3-bets, and I fold.

Opinions please on the PF play, and all three flop decisions.

Re: I check and call and fold... all on the flop
 

i like, if i counted right you are getting 19-2 on your call, plus there is a good chance that MP will cap it which is even worse...it is very likely that you are up against a set/overpair(including AA/KK) such that your outs are significantly tainted, plus the Q spades leads to very likely redraws, and if someone has a set or makes a set they have a lot of outs to redraw...nice hand...

Re: I check and call and fold... all on the flop
 

PJ, the only thing I would do differently is call all bets on the flop. Just too likely you have 7 outs and you always have 3 to the nuts. But it's close, so I wouldn't sweat it if you mucked.

Re: I check and call and fold... all on the flop
 

Preflop could go either way. You figure to be way ahead of the woman and the pro could be lighter than normal here. That calls for a cap.

The case for the cold call is the advantage of deception and you know that the woman is the type to try to shut anyone out of this big pot. Dropping the hammer is satisfactory the 1/3 of the time your hand hits.

All things considered I have a mild preference for the cold call, maybe 60/40.

Had you cold called out of the blind, the pot may be small enough that the woman may have waited until the turn to make her move.

As you played it, a fold here is fine. Your overs are dirty enough and a cap is likely. They priced you out. I prefer a fold to continuing. Had you the A[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], it becomes a call.

Re: I check and call and fold... all on the flop
 

i usually bet the flop.. unless they've seen you check in a similar spot w/ jj or aa. but yeah, fold when it gets back to you; it's too likely you're reverse dominated.

Re: I check and call and fold... all on the flop
 

Your hand is faceup because you forgot to bet the flop. Since you didn't I think capping is pretty hot and might get tight guy to make a big fold on the turn.

-DeathDonkey

Re: I check and call and fold... all on the flop
 

[censored] DRAW TO YOUR GOD DAMN GUTSHOTS LIKE A MAN, DAMN IT!

Re: I check and call and fold... all on the flop
 

If your going to check the flop, I like a check-call if MP bets and CO doesn't raise, or a c/r to isolate CO. I know its a bit FPS, but it screams monster to the CO who probably doesn't know better.

TT [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]

Re: I check and call and fold... all on the flop
 

FWIW, i would feel more comfortable folding when it's bet/raise/3-bet than check/check/bet/call/c/r/3-bet....

i would fold and feel good about it as played though.

Re: I check and call and fold... all on the flop
 

Bet the flop because maybe she has A7 and he has 99 and they'll both fold and you'll win a big pot or if they have hands that hit that flop then you usually have a bunch of outs anyway and you might even still have the best hand and if you bet you get to avoid folding on the flop with all your outs in this big pot and I think you should bet the flop because the pot is big.

Re:DeathDonkey
 

Quote:"Your hand is face up because you forgot to bet the flop."

This is a very astute analysis.Thank you.

Re:DeathDonkey
 

[ QUOTE ]
Quote:"Your hand is face up because you forgot to bet the flop."

This is a very astute analysis.Thank you.

[/ QUOTE ]

there are good reasons not to bet the flop since it connects with a lot of holdings. Hence if PJ felt a check was required then a c/r is mandetory when CO bets. This also avoids announcing "AK!" to the table through deception.

note - this is not a play I would use all the time.

TT [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]

Re:DeathDonkey
 

I thought about checkraising, but MP is so aggressive that I didn't want to walk into a 3-bet. She doesn't give up on pots easily, as I kind of mentioned in my read.

Re: I check and call and fold... all on the flop
 

No cap preflop, and it's close to a fold on the flop. The problem is that you need to flop something to your AK to have a chance. If the flop were JT5r, I would play for a bet on the flop. But without a spade, I'm giving this one up. Preflop, I usually fold AQo in this spot in the SB facing a threebet.

Right to give it up on the flop after the three-bet.

Re: I check and call and fold... all on the flop
 

[ QUOTE ]
No cap preflop, and it's close to a fold on the flop. The problem is that you need to flop something to your AK to have a chance. If the flop were JT5r, I would play for a bet on the flop. But without a spade, I'm giving this one up. Preflop, I usually fold AQo in this spot in the SB facing a threebet.

Right to give it up on the flop after the three-bet.

[/ QUOTE ]

A hyper-aggro player raises and a probably thinking player 3bets and you don't want to cap? Your hand is a monster in this spot.

Re: I check and call and fold... all on the flop
 

Capping this preflop from the SB = you are pretty darn sure you have the best hand. I don't see any reason to check this flop except to make pp<10 maybe stick around for the river. Last time I checked you are tall and white, you gotta just bet this once you cap pf.

That said I would not cap preflop because you got a potential girl-on-girl pissing contest you can float TPTK to the river with, and/or fold happily on the flop or turn if it whiffs.

Re: I check and call and fold... all on the flop
 

So nobody thinks that JTx flop helped a ton of hands I was ahead of PF? Especially with the two spades and me having none. All of a sudden I'm behind your standard any-two-broadway holding except AQ. I think betting a JT flop OOP with AK into two aggressive players is just unwise.

FWIW, I was firing on a ton of other missed flops, like T52, 984, 766, etc.

Re: I check and call and fold... all on the flop
 

[ QUOTE ]
So nobody thinks that JTx flop helped a ton of hands I was ahead of PF? Especially with the two spades and me having none. All of a sudden I'm behind your standard any-two-broadway holding except AQ. I think betting a JT flop OOP with AK into two aggressive players is just unwise.

FWIW, I was firing on a ton of other missed flops, like T52, 984, 766, etc.

[/ QUOTE ]

The pot is big so you don't have to be ahead very often. The maniac probably won't have broadway type hands all that often. I assume she's raising stuff like K7 right?

The 3 bettor often has you beat, but a decent size of his range should be pocket pairs < TT which will fold on the flop, and if that happens it's great for you. Also KQ and AQ are behind you still, and even though those aren't folding, betting probably gives you the best chance of getting to showdown against those types of hands since a thinking player probably won't be giving you too much resistance after you 4bet from the blinds(specifically with your image).

If you're behind you'll often have about 7 outs to improve to the best hand, and occasionally as many as ten, which means your bet can't be that bad even in those spots.

Re: I check and call and fold... all on the flop
 

As DD said, your hand is face-up right now, by not betting out on the flop. Plus, I think it would be nice to see the turn as cheaply as possible. I think that betting out may slow down the action here, or cause the HJ to raise where you can pop it and isolate, much as the CO did.