AJ off - man i hate that hand.
 

Limit: $1/$2
10 players

Villian: 36/15/0.86 over 200 hands.
I had seen him cold call small pocket pairs preflop and raise ATo preflop at one point.

Pre-flop: (10 players) Hero is MP1 with J[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] A[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]
3 folds, <font color="#cc0000">Hero raises</font>, 5 folds, BB calls.

Flop: 3[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] A[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] Q[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] (4.5SB, 2 players)
BB checks, <font color="#cc0000">Hero bets</font>, BB calls.

Turn: 6[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] (3.25BB, 2 players)
BB checks, <font color="#cc0000">Hero bets</font>, <font color="#cc0000">BB raises</font>, Hero ????

Re: AJ off - man i hate that hand.
 

how about a postflop read to help with your postflop decision?

call down. 7:2 isn't great odds, but you'll see a worse A or some kind of semibluff or something retarded often enough.

Re: AJ off - man i hate that hand.
 

I call down.
This could be a better hand like two-pair.
But without any further read and only stats this guy is maniac. You have a decent hand (top pair, good kicker) to call down to be good enough IMO.
And bet if he checks on the river!

Re: AJ off - man i hate that hand.
 

Yep I would defin call this down! As said before you have a decent hand

Re: AJ off - man i hate that hand.
 

I never fold here.

My default play is to call down but if villian is very aggressive (aka would raise with a Q or A4 here) I'll either reraise on the turn or raise the river.

Re: AJ off - man i hate that hand.
 

Everyone´s pretty much calling this down. Is this another limit related thing... villains being more tricky and all? If this was nano limit - i´d say you´re toast.

Re: AJ off - man i hate that hand.
 

[ QUOTE ]
Everyone´s pretty much calling this down. Is this another limit related thing... villains being more tricky and all? If this was nano limit - i´d say you´re toast.

[/ QUOTE ]
Interesting. Why?
Villain is LAG.
And why nano limit?

Re: AJ off - man i hate that hand.
 

[ QUOTE ]
This could be a better hand like two-pair.
But without any further read and only stats this guy is maniac.

[/ QUOTE ]

yeah he's LA pf but do you really think 0.86 AF is a maniac? IMO, hero is rarely good here.

Re: AJ off - man i hate that hand.
 

Ok. Maybe he isnt maniac, but hes aggressive enough to make fancy plays. Even fish with 0.2 AF make fancy bluffs on the river when a scare card comes IMO.

Re: AJ off - man i hate that hand.
 

Are you guys serious on this hand? You don't get a 0.86 post flop aggression factor by bluff raising turns. Hell, I have a 2.5 factor and seldom am bluffing my turn raises. Hero is toast here and needs to learn to lay these hands down if he wants to be a winner at 1/2.

Re: AJ off - man i hate that hand.
 

Yes. I AM serious.
This turn check-raise usually means no good. But you have enough outs to make it good. At least call it.

Re: AJ off - man i hate that hand.
 

[ QUOTE ]
Yes. I AM serious.
This turn check-raise usually means no good. But you have enough outs to make it good. At least call it.

[/ QUOTE ]

What? Seruiously, what do you think villain has? This looks like a typical "flopped 2-pair or set and wait til turn to get more money". Really, the pot is too small to fight over here.

Re: AJ off - man i hate that hand.
 

Ok. You are probably right. The pot doesnt offer enough to make good two-pair.
You convinced me: its a fold cause the pot is too small. Especially because its on the turn, not the river.

Re: AJ off - man i hate that hand.
 

Call down, a read would help though.

Re: AJ off - man i hate that hand.
 

Im not saying calling down wouldn´t be correct, just to be clear. Im just saying i wouldn´t make calling down my standard play, unless some one here can convince me otherwise. I need to pay 2 bets to get to the showdown. Without any reads, i don´t feel comfortable doing that.

Re: AJ off - man i hate that hand.
 

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Re: AJ off - man i hate that hand.
 

I think folding is ok, but I would usually call this down against a more aggressive opponent.

Re: AJ off - man i hate that hand.
 

It's one thing to call a turn raise with outs, but what are our outs here? We have 3 outs against A3 and A6. And we are drawing dead to any set and AQ. I doubt he has AQ wth his pf raise % since he didnt 3-bet, but I think its pretty clear that with this size pot we have no business calling when we feel we are beat and have at best 3 outs.
Believe me, I make this mistake all the time, but this is 2 bets we are talking about here......this could be our profit for the next 100 hands we are pissing away.

If this guy had a big post flop aggression factor I would consider calling down, but 200 hands is a good enough sample for me to believe his .8.

I'll eat my hat if OP shows us that he called down and his hand held up.

Re: AJ off - man i hate that hand.
 

to the people in this thread fretting about his 0.86 AF:

This number is fairly meaningless without a read. He may be an aggressive opponent who also likes to call. Maybe he will bet and raise with even the slightest piece, and callcallcall when he misses.

This hand illustrates the importance of actually watching how a player plays.

Try not to get too caught up in a readless stat.

Re: AJ off - man i hate that hand.
 

[ QUOTE ]
It's one thing to call a turn raise with outs, but what are our outs here? We have 3 outs against A3 and A6. And we are drawing dead to any set and AQ. I doubt he has AQ wth his pf raise % since he didnt 3-bet, but I think its pretty clear that with this size pot we have no business calling when we feel we are beat and have at best 3 outs.
Believe me, I make this mistake all the time, but this is 2 bets we are talking about here......this could be our profit for the next 100 hands we are pissing away.

If this guy had a big post flop aggression factor I would consider calling down, but 200 hands is a good enough sample for me to believe his .8.

I'll eat my hat if OP shows us that he called down and his hand held up.

[/ QUOTE ]
We have six outs against A3 or A6 (three J's, three Q's). The only set he could reasonably have is 33, since AA and QQ three-ball it preflop and he'd likely fold 66 to the flop bet. We're also winning if he has a worse ace — not terribly likely, but possible, since AT is definitely in his range.

If this were a loose-passive opponent, then yeah, we fold to the check/raise all day long and feel good about it. But this dude's just laggy enough to merit a calldown.

Re: AJ off - man i hate that hand.
 

[ QUOTE ]
how about a postflop read to help with your postflop decision?


[/ QUOTE ]

None i'm afraid. Haven't seen him check/raise before.
Does a c/r by such a passive player post flop not usually mean we are beaten in this spot?
My range for him at this point is AK, AQ, AJ, AT, A6, A3
Which means i only beat AT.

Re: AJ off - man i hate that hand.
 

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
how about a postflop read to help with your postflop decision?


[/ QUOTE ]

None i'm afraid. Haven't seen him check/raise before.
Does a c/r by such a passive player post flop not usually mean we are beaten in this spot?
My range for him at this point is AK, AQ, AJ, AT, A6, A3
Which means i only beat AT.

[/ QUOTE ]

he'd likely reraise AK/AQ pf so I'd eliminate those from the range

Re: AJ off - man i hate that hand.
 

[ QUOTE ]

he'd likely reraise AK/AQ pf so I'd eliminate those from the range

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Still means i'm behind most of his range though, right?

Re: AJ off - man i hate that hand.
 

Hey, thanks Marchron! I didn´t really even think about those Q outs. Alarming [img]/images/graemlins/frown.gif[/img]

Re: AJ off - man i hate that hand.
 

[ QUOTE ]
It's one thing to call a turn raise with outs, but what are our outs here? We have 3 outs against A3 and A6. And we are drawing dead to any set and AQ. I doubt he has AQ wth his pf raise % since he didnt 3-bet, but I think its pretty clear that with this size pot we have no business calling when we feel we are beat and have at best 3 outs.


[/ QUOTE ]

My first instinct here was to call down. You guys are makign some valid points as to why a fold would be ok. However, Jaxup is right, .86 in a vacuum could mean a lot of things. A read would do wonders for this hand.

Another thing is you have a lot more outs than 3. If he flopped A3 two pair you'll have 6 outs. (I forgot to figure in the Q kicker and originally thought A3 would give us 9 outs. Hidden outs are tricky!) Hidden outs of the board pairing gives us these extra outs. For instance, if the 6 or Q pairs on the river, we win since it counterfeits his lower two pair. If we hit our jack we win as well.

If he hit his two pair A6 on the turn we have 6 outs for the same reason. If he had AQ or a set we're done.

edit: this was said above, but whatever

So while we potentially have a decent amount of outs the next question is "is this pot worth it?" Its 5.25bb after the check raise. We'll have to put in two more bets to win 7bb so 7:2. Thats a pretty small profit margin if it exists. I think you can fold in this, but if there was a read we could play this more confidently. Make reads guys, dont use PT as a crutch.

Re: AJ off - man i hate that hand.
 

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
It's one thing to call a turn raise with outs, but what are our outs here? We have 3 outs against A3 and A6. And we are drawing dead to any set and AQ. I doubt he has AQ wth his pf raise % since he didnt 3-bet, but I think its pretty clear that with this size pot we have no business calling when we feel we are beat and have at best 3 outs.
Believe me, I make this mistake all the time, but this is 2 bets we are talking about here......this could be our profit for the next 100 hands we are pissing away.

If this guy had a big post flop aggression factor I would consider calling down, but 200 hands is a good enough sample for me to believe his .8.

I'll eat my hat if OP shows us that he called down and his hand held up.

[/ QUOTE ]
We have six outs against A3 or A6 (three J's, three Q's). The only set he could reasonably have is 33, since AA and QQ three-ball it preflop and he'd likely fold 66 to the flop bet. We're also winning if he has a worse ace — not terribly likely, but possible, since AT is definitely in his range.

If this were a loose-passive opponent, then yeah, we fold to the check/raise all day long and feel good about it. But this dude's just laggy enough to merit a calldown.

[/ QUOTE ]

right. I forgot our ace. I still think he is passive enough post flop that we are beat. And even 6 pure outs (which they aren't)is not enough in a pot this small.

Re: AJ off - man i hate that hand.
 

[ QUOTE ]
We have six outs against A3 or A6 (three J's, three Q's).

If this were a loose-passive opponent, then yeah, we fold to the check/raise all day long and feel good about it. But this dude's just laggy enough to merit a calldown.

[/ QUOTE ]

We're just barely getting 7:1. What would you do if the river brought a Q? In order to make your turn play correct, you would have to bet...

Re: AJ off - man i hate that hand.
 

Wow, there is some terrible advice in this thread. JaxUp provided the lone ray of sunshine in the darkness, and everybody should read what he posted, 3 or 4 times if necessary to take in it's full meaning.

[nit]Marchon, we have 7.5 outs against A3, as a 6 gives us a split.[/nit]

The guy was in the BB! He could have 63, Q6, a bare queen and be fishing to see if you have the ace, 5[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]4[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] and semi-bluffing you, nearly anything for eff's sake! Do yourselves a favor, and find the middle ground; every posted hand, people are either hand-reading only the hands that we're dead to or the hands we're crushing. You have to look at both.

This pot is large, you're getting 6:1 on a call with TPGK, and no, you don't necessarily have to call a river bet, but there also won't necessarily BE a river bet (if he's semi-bluffing or taking a shot with TPNK).

This is a super-easy call.

Re: AJ off - man i hate that hand.
 

Im not so sure. A turn check-raise by a semiLAG really means something big, i. e. two pair or better. On the contrary, a donk wouldnt mean that much, but this is a check-raise.
Which makes this a fold IMO.

Re: AJ off - man i hate that hand.
 

[ QUOTE ]
Im not so sure. A turn check-raise by a semiLAG really means something big, i. e. two pair or better. On the contrary, a donk wouldnt mean that much, but this is a check-raise.
Which makes this a fold IMO.

[/ QUOTE ]

If you assume that the c/r means that we have no more than 3 outs (i.e. Villan has AA/QQ/66/33/AK/AQ) then, yes, this is a fold. Given how laggro Vill is preflop, you HAVE to reduce that to a set of 6s or 3s because anything else gets 3-bet from the blinds, or donkbet on either the flop or turn.

Weighting outs (combo, combinations, outs, weighted outs):

66, 3, 0, 0
33, 3, 0, 0
A6, 9, 6, 1
A3, 9, 7.5, 1.3
Q6, 9, 8, 1.4
Q3, 9, 8, 1.4
63, 9, 8, 1.4

Total = 6.5

Between implied odds for your outs, and some non-zero percentage of the time that you're ahead on the turn, this is an easy call. Realize that you probably can't call another bet on the river, tho, and depending on the card you may not want to bet it yourself if checked to (that's why we don't have to worry about complicated calcs to reduce our outs for the straight or flush hitting).

I'd also like to point out that there's a critter that you'll find starting around 1/2, but not so much below that: the LAG-TAG. This guy plays a lot of hands strongly preflop, but then becomes really hard to read postflop because he will play hard with ANY part of the board, but give up with none of it (it's hard because you don't know how much of the board he hit). I'm not saying this is that guy, but this is what his stats would look like (maybe a bit higher VPIP, but not a lot). If this is that guy you're better off checking behind on the turn and calling one on the river.

Re: AJ off - man i hate that hand.
 

i call down, i expect to win around 50% of the time.

Re: AJ off - man i hate that hand.
 

[ QUOTE ]

Villain is LAG.


[/ QUOTE ]

How is he LAG??? .86 AF.... IMO your beat here a large portion of the time... A c/r from a .86 is very scary. Unless ive seen something that tells me that this c/r is sometimes a bluff then your probably beat.

Re: AJ off - man i hate that hand.
 

[ QUOTE ]
I would ALWAYS call this down against a more aggressive opponent.

[/ QUOTE ]

But its a fold vs. a passive... I.e. This hand

Re: AJ off - man i hate that hand.
 

36/16 isn't... ummm... passive.

Re: AJ off - man i hate that hand.
 

[ QUOTE ]
36/16 isn't... ummm... passive.

[/ QUOTE ]

I agree... its not passive pre flop... how about post?

Re: AJ off - man i hate that hand.
 

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
36/16 isn't... ummm... passive.

[/ QUOTE ]

I agree... its not passive pre flop... how about post?

[/ QUOTE ]

I guess I'm just not ready to make that conclusion, either way, based on 200 hands. Easy call IMO.

Re: AJ off - man i hate that hand.
 

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
36/16 isn't... ummm... passive.

[/ QUOTE ]

I agree... its not passive pre flop... how about post?

[/ QUOTE ]

This is a matter of an interpretation of stats.

The aggression factor is calculated as:
(bet % + raise %)/(call %).

Since a loose player(and he is loose) he may be calling a bit more hands but have the same raising standards of a TAG. Therefore, his AF will go down even though he may be just as aggressive.

Re: AJ off - man i hate that hand.
 

I take back what I said earlier. Thanks for explaining this to me. Two others explained this whole stat issue to me in the AK thread. Thx again

Re: AJ off - man i hate that hand.
 

[ QUOTE ]

Weighting outs (combo, combinations, outs, weighted outs):

66, 3, 0, 0
33, 3, 0, 0
A6, 9, 6, 1
A3, 9, 7.5, 1.3
Q6, 9, 8, 1.4
Q3, 9, 8, 1.4
63, 9, 8, 1.4

Total = 6.5


[/ QUOTE ]
Thanks for the thorough analysis. I estimated around 6 outs as well, but not that exact.
But I dont think I get it. Why 7.5 outs against A3? We have 9 outs (3 6s, 3 Qs, 3 Js).
Furthermore, why is this a clear call with 6.5 outs getting 6-to-1?
And we are getting 3.5-to-1 for a call-down no matter what.
Is this guy check-raising us with a worse hand more than 20% of the time?
I actually dont know, but would guess not. A turn check-raise is rare IMO. And a bluff/semibluff turn check-raise much rarer.

Re: AJ off - man i hate that hand.
 

[ QUOTE ]
But I dont think I get it. Why 7.5 outs against A3? We have 9 outs (3 6s, 3 Qs, 3 Js).

[/ QUOTE ]

Gotcha. The 6s only count for half because we would then split with A3.


[ QUOTE ]
Furthermore, why is this a clear call with 6.5 outs getting 6-to-1?
And we are getting 3.5-to-1 for a call-down no matter what.

[/ QUOTE ]

Implied odds, we have position on him. If we catch and he bets, we are at least making one more bet. And, yeah, we're getting 3.5:1 on a calldown, if we call his river bet (if he makes one), which we don't have to if we don't improve (I think I've already said that, tho).

[ QUOTE ]
Is this guy check-raising us with a worse hand more than 20% of the time?
I actually dont know, but would guess not. A turn check-raise is rare IMO. And a bluff/semibluff turn check-raise much rarer.

[/ QUOTE ]

I don't actually know, since we don't have a real read, and OP doesn't seem to be talking. But since we make up the difference in implieds, the times he's semi-bluffing is just gravy (think I already said that, too).