New England Patriots vs. New York Jets thread
 

Some thoughts on the game, mostly from the Pats POV, other views welcome of course.

The first game between these 2 teams was dominated by the Patriots. The Jets did spring 2 big plays that had a bit of luck and extraordinary effort. Sure you give them credit for this, but these plays aren't the type that are very repeatable.

The second game the Jets outplayed the Pats, but they had a lot of things going for them:

- Jets were coming off of a bye week, Pats were coming off of a Sunday night loss to the Colts

- The game was played on a completely muddy field, which always gives the advantage to the worse team (by leveling the literal and figurative playing field).

- Ty Warren did not play, and Seymour was still banged up. 2 Pro Bowl level Dlineman for the Pats.

The point is, I wouldn't look for a repeat of the second game. Lots of things will be different this game. (Rodney Harrison did not play in game 2 either btw).

Re: the 2 teams, the Patriots are better. I think the Jets have had a successful season, but they were lucky to get as many wins as they did. They have an average offense and a below average defense; the Pats are above average on both.

I think the Pats win by a TD.

Re: New England Patriots vs. New York Jets thread
 

link

Re: New England Patriots vs. New York Jets thread
 

In the playoffs luckboxing can continue. Go Jets!

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I didn't like the title of that thread. plus it was low content!

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I didn't like the title of that thread. plus it was low content!

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Low content? I predicted a W, that's pretty much all that matters.

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I didn't like the title of that thread. plus it was low content!

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Low content? I predicted a W, that's pretty much all that matters.

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yes but you haven't accepted my avatar bet!

http://www.lastnightoffreedom.co.uk/...er-chicken.jpg

Re: New England Patriots vs. New York Jets thread
 

Terms?

Re: New England Patriots vs. New York Jets thread
 

Jets win, you give me your avatar of your choice to use until the Jets are eliminated from the playoffs.

Pats win, I give you the avatar of my choice to use until the Pats are eliminated from the playoffs.

Re: New England Patriots vs. New York Jets thread
 

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Jets win, you give me your avatar of your choice to use until the Jets are eliminated from the playoffs.

Pats win, I give you the avatar of my choice to use until the Pats are eliminated from the playoffs.

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What if the Jets cover?

Re: New England Patriots vs. New York Jets thread
 

Is your avatar that valuable to you? Nit.

Re: New England Patriots vs. New York Jets thread
 

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Jets win, you give me your avatar of your choice to use until the Jets are eliminated from the playoffs.

Pats win, I give you the avatar of my choice to use until the Pats are eliminated from the playoffs.

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What if the Jets cover?

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no spread, you said "I predicted a W, that's pretty much all that matters. "

Re: New England Patriots vs. New York Jets thread
 

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Jets win, you give me your avatar of your choice to use until the Jets are eliminated from the playoffs.

Pats win, I give you the avatar of my choice to use until the Pats are eliminated from the playoffs.

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What if the Jets cover?

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no spread, you said "I predicted a W, that's pretty much all that matters. "

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Well, that's all that matters from a fan's point of view, but in this scenario, I'm a bettor, and I wouldn't mind getting some points.

How bout this: no points, but if the Pats win, I'll use avatar of choice til Pats are done. Jets win, you use avatar of choice until the draft.

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Jets win, you give me your avatar of your choice to use until the Jets are eliminated from the playoffs.

Pats win, I give you the avatar of my choice to use until the Pats are eliminated from the playoffs.

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What if the Jets cover?

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no spread, you said "I predicted a W, that's pretty much all that matters. "

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Well, that's all that matters from a fan's point of view, but in this scenario, I'm a bettor, and I wouldn't mind getting some points.

How bout this: no points, but if the Pats win, I'll use avatar of choice til Pats are done. Jets win, you use avatar of choice until the draft.

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This is only reasonable if you use the Pats avatar until their next loss and not just until the end of the playoffs.

Re: New England Patriots vs. New York Jets thread
 

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This is only reasonable if you use the Pats avatar until their next loss and not just until the end of the playoffs.


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Until the Pats next loss post hypothetical victory over jets? I think this is what we're saying.

Pats win, I use avatar until the patriots are eliminated from post-season, or one week post Patriot super bowl victory. Hypothetically.

Jets win its my avatar of choice until the NFL draft.

Re: New England Patriots vs. New York Jets thread
 

When I got my custom title, the bet required the avatar to stay until the winning team lost or until to the pro bowl if they won the superbowl. I still can't believe that I had that damn thing until the probowl.

Re: New England Patriots vs. New York Jets thread
 

meh, I think haggling over the terms of an avatar bet is kind of lame. it's my deal or no deal (nothing personal [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img])

Re: New England Patriots vs. New York Jets thread
 

You deal makes no sense, the Pats are the favorites. Him thinking the Jets are going to win does not change that.

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You deal makes no sense, the Pats are the favorites. Him thinking the Jets are going to win does not change that.

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I [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] this thread. I'm going to the gym and to play cards, won't check this for about 15 hours, come up with something.

Re: New England Patriots vs. New York Jets thread
 

Here is my quick breakdown/synopsis:

Jets O versus Pats D

Jets had a lot of success running the ball in the second game that I don't expect to be repeated, hammering out 26/110 but with a long of only 12. They were consistently able to pick up 3-5 yards and, as KB4Z alludes, a lot of this can be attributed to the depleted NE line. Warren is a monster against the run (84 tackles in 15 games is ridiculous for a 3-4 end) and was missing while Seymour was basically playing with one arm. I am pretty high on Pennington but their whole approach depends on getting into 3rd and manageable situations. He's not a guy who is going to succeed with a lot of 3rd and longs, nor is he a guy that is going to shorten drives by picking up yards in big chunks. If the Pats D-line can stand up the Jets O-line a bit more and force a lot of 2nd and 9, 3rd and 8 type of situations, its going to be a long day. I think Mangini knows this, however, and I would expect him to come out spreading the field a lot, getting the Patriots out of their base defense, using the same hurry-up that has been pretty effective all year, and basically trying to utilize Pennington's intelligence and short accuracy to pick on some of the weaker Pats dime and nickle d-backs. Basically, my best guess is that the Jets will try to pass to set up the run against the nickle.

Pats O vs Jets D

This one kind of baffles me. The Pats have probably been most effective this year when they spread the field and use quick drops, basically letting their best player dictate events. On the other hand, the Jets run D is pretty atrocious and the Pats had a lot of success, especially with Dillon, just hitting the Jets in the mouth. One element that the Jets seem to lack is a top-end speed rusher on the outside, which has been a real achilles heel for the Pats this year on several occasions as Matt Light has been exposed (incidentally, this really concerns me against the Chargers or Ravens if the Pats reach the next round). Ultimately, I think coaching is going to be pretty huge in this matchup. This is Mangini's strength and Pat's O-Coordinator Josh McDaniels has been very up-and-down this season. In particular, he's shown a worrying inability to make adjustments in some games and a bit of stubborness, which I hope don't come back to kill the Pats on Sunday.

Special Teams

Both teams have pretty strong special teams. But I think any Pats fan out there who claims he doesn't still have concerns about Gostkowski is lying. In retrospect, I think BB handled the situation very well this year in being somewhat conservative in his use of Gostkowski after he flubbed a few early. And with some shorter kicks he ended up making a respectable 20-26, including a few long ones. On the other hand, there's something about experiencing a lot of siutations in which your team is going for it on 4th and 6 from the 30 yard line that makes your stomach a little queezy come playoff time...

What It All Adds up To

Pats 24 - Jets 16

Re: New England Patriots vs. New York Jets thread
 

Guess who wrote this in today's column?

PATRIOTS (-8.5) over Jets
It's been fun to see the Jets fans come out of a decade-long hibernation/depression to unleash taunting "you're going down!" e-mails and phone calls to Patriots fans like myself. You guys are cute. It's like having a puppy hump your leg or something. Anyway, here's the lingering question: How does a team with no home-field advantage, no deep threats, a banged-up secondary and one of the worst special teams units in football give 8.5 points to a team that played them tough twice? It makes no sense, right?

Here's the answer: The Pats tipped their hands in a meaningless Tennessee game last week. There's been a nagging sense since the curious Colts defeat that they were better than they were letting on, that they were playing possum to an extent, blessed with an easy schedule that guaranteed them the 4-seed four months ago. When the Titans got them riled up with a couple of chippy plays, the ticked-off Pats switched gears, kept their starters in, opened up both barrels and blew them off the field. It was an awesome performance. For the first time all season, they looked like the physical, nasty, ball-breaking, smashmouth team that won 21 straight and 31 of 33 during the '03 and '04 seasons. I can't imagine that team losing at home, in January, in a do-or-die game, to an opponent that can't run the ball or stop the run. It's not happening.

The Pick: New England 31, New York 10

(Bill "The Sports Guy" Simmons, of course.)

Re: New England Patriots vs. New York Jets thread
 

he's way too optimistic

Re: New England Patriots vs. New York Jets thread
 

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You deal makes no sense, the Pats are the favorites. Him thinking the Jets are going to win does not change that.

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Its an AVATAR BET! People don't go scouring the lines looking for profitable avatar bets. Avatar bets are for pride in your team. When your team is in the playoffs you want them to win, covering the spread is meaningless. The spread is for gambling and gambling is for money. This thing should be straight up or not at all.

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This is only reasonable if you use the Pats avatar until their next loss and not just until the end of the playoffs.


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Until the Pats next loss post hypothetical victory over jets? I think this is what we're saying.

Pats win, I use avatar until the patriots are eliminated from post-season, or one week post Patriot super bowl victory. Hypothetically.

Jets win its my avatar of choice until the NFL draft.

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I'm saying if the Pats win the Superbowl you'd use it until they lose. As it is your proposition is hugely -avatarEV for him. You get 4 months of time if the Jets win, he gets 1 week (55%) - 2 weeks (25%) - 4 weeks (10%) - 5 weeks (10%) if the Patriots win. So for him to expect to get more weeks of avatar time, he needs to expect the Jets to win less than 12% of the time. Which is pretty ridiculous.

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It's an avatar bet people, have some faith in your team and bet straight up.

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It's an avatar bet people, have some faith in your team and bet straight up.

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Word. Odds are for chumps, just be a man and put your pride on the line for your team.

GOGOGOGOGO PATS

Re: New England Patriots vs. New York Jets thread
 

looks like we're gonna need a 3rd thread for this game

Re: New England Patriots vs. New York Jets thread
 

Lmao Jets suck and got very lucky to be where they are. Pats should dominate.

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You deal makes no sense, the Pats are the favorites. Him thinking the Jets are going to win does not change that.

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Its an AVATAR BET! People don't go scouring the lines looking for profitable avatar bets. Avatar bets are for pride in your team. When your team is in the playoffs you want them to win, covering the spread is meaningless. The spread is for gambling and gambling is for money. This thing should be straight up or not at all.

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I only think that holds to a point. Up to a 7-point spread I'd agree that it should just be straight up. Once you get into two-score territory, though, the odds of the underdog winning are long enough that some protection for the other party is reasonable.

That said, brett seems to think that the Jets will win this game more than 50% of the time. In that case, haggling for odds on an avatar bet because some third party (i.e. a bookie) disagrees with you is just being petty.

Re: New England Patriots vs. New York Jets thread
 

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This is only reasonable if you use the Pats avatar until their next loss and not just until the end of the playoffs.


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Until the Pats next loss post hypothetical victory over jets? I think this is what we're saying.

Pats win, I use avatar until the patriots are eliminated from post-season, or one week post Patriot super bowl victory. Hypothetically.

Jets win its my avatar of choice until the NFL draft.

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no way the jets are this big of a dog, you are being a huge see you next tuesday if you think this is reasonable.

what's the spread anyway? holy [censored]? 8.5???

Re: New England Patriots vs. New York Jets thread
 

I agree... I think that spread is absurd.

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That said, brett seems to think that the Jets will win this game more than 50% of the time.

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Nah, I really don't. If you look at the Bobby Wade apreciation thread you'll see that I'm really very optimistic when it comes ot my Jets. I love them in a very non-Christian way.

But all this haggling, even though I think it warranted, might have gotten away from the heart of the matter.

KB4Z, avatar bet, winner take all, until either elimination or the end of the playoffs. Its come to my attention that avatar bets aren't worth all that much, and even though Brady etc. makes me want to puke, the thought of Chad gracing your name is too much to pass up.

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I agree... I think that spread is absurd.

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will def move towards game time IMO

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I agree... I think that spread is absurd.

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I do too, and while I'm a very sparing sport-bettor, and I have a rule not to bet on any Jets games, I really want to bet this one.

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I agree... I think that spread is absurd.

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Uh, so what should the line be then? Pinnacle has it at -9.5 New England.

Re: New England Patriots vs. New York Jets thread
 

my knowledge of sports betting is fairly limited, but if everyone is likely to be betting one way (on the pats) isn't the line going to move in their favor as the house compensates for the imbalance? so the 'true' line would actually be a closer score? that's why i'm guessing it moves back late, but i could be totally wrong here. if i could tease that jets line to +10.5 or so it would look really tempting.

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my knowledge of sports betting is fairly limited, but if everyone is likely to be betting one way (on the pats) isn't the line going to move in their favor as the house compensates for the imbalance?

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~61% of the money is going on the Jets. I don't think the line is going to move much. Most movement I've seen is .5 towards the Jets side.

Bottom line is the Pats are a vastly superior team to the Jets. +3.5 Pythagorean win differential, home field advantage--if anything I'd bet Patriots at -8.5

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I agree... I think that spread is absurd.

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Uh, so what should the line be then? Pinnacle has it at -9.5 New England.

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pinny has -9.5 to block teasers. -8.5 is the w/a line.

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my knowledge of sports betting is fairly limited, but if everyone is likely to be betting one way (on the pats) isn't the line going to move in their favor as the house compensates for the imbalance? so the 'true' line would actually be a closer score? that's why i'm guessing it moves back late, but i could be totally wrong here. if i could tease that jets line to +10.5 or so it would look really tempting.

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i'll give you NYJ +10.5 at -180 (i.e. $180/100 or 18/10 etc) interested?

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KB4Z, avatar bet, winner take all, until either elimination or the end of the playoffs.

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accepted!

Re: New England Patriots vs. New York Jets thread
 

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my knowledge of sports betting is fairly limited, but if everyone is likely to be betting one way (on the pats) isn't the line going to move in their favor as the house compensates for the imbalance? so the 'true' line would actually be a closer score? that's why i'm guessing it moves back late, but i could be totally wrong here. if i could tease that jets line to +10.5 or so it would look really tempting.

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i'll give you NYJ +10.5 at -180 (i.e. $180/100 or 18/10 etc) interested?

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after reading the responses of posters who actually know their ass from their elbow i am going to assume this is a terrible bet for me, but i actually suspect mangini will find a way to slow NE down enough in the first half to keep it kinda close.