Ron Jaworski on Reggie Bush- Rookie of the Year
 

I think that most of you around here know my general philosophy regarding the NFL and how I feel like stats are a bit overrated since so much goes into them(offensive philosophy, quality of supporting cast, etc.). Rather than blindly follow the stats I try to WATCH as much football as possible and analyze players that way.

But obviously I can't watch every game, and obviously there are a ton of people out there who are better scouts than I. So what I try to do is to find a few people whose opinions I greatly trust. Some examples might include Chris Landry(yahoo sports), the footballguys staff, and I've even recently started to read FO a bit more even though I'm still not completely sold on their philosophies.

Anyway, on TV my favorite analysit has to be Jaws. For one, hes a former QB so he instanly has credentials there. But not just that- hes also very analytical and well spoken, and you can tell that hes usually not biased(unless its the Eagles, but even then he admits it). Perhaps what I like most about him is that so many of his comments being with a phrase like "Well when studying film I found that...". So many analyists on TV today just seem to be arguing without really knowing what they are talking about.

Anyway, on to the point of my post:

I didn't see it myself, but I read on footballguys that this morning on SportsCenter they asked Jaws who his rookie of the year was. He replied that it was easily Reggie Bush because when watching the games you could see how much the game changed when he was on the field. Jaws basically said that even though the numbers don't show it, Bush had the most impact.

Now let me be clear- I'm not necessarily agreeing with him. In fact, if you had asked me yesterday I would've definitely said that Vince Young was the ROY and that MJD was the best RB of the rookies this year. However I greatly respect Jaws, and I usually will give his opinion of game film great respect- many times if I feel one way after watching a game and he feels another, I will instantly begin to re-assess my opinions.

So I just wanted some commentary on this. Would anyone else agree that Reggie Bush was the ROY? And for the record, I've already seen all the stats and I already realize that MJD's stats are far better, so no need to point that out.

Re: Ron Jaworski on Reggie Bush- Rookie of the Year
 

I think the main reason is his versatility. He can do SOOOO many things on the field. Young opens up that Tenn. offense in several ways, but having Bush coming out of the backfield allows the Saints to constantly disguise the offense, thus making the play calling options limitless. The offense that the Saints have put together late in the season is due to the fact that they are a double threat (running and passing) and the passing game isn't isolated to a short game / big play game. They can control all aspects of the field.

Re: Ron Jaworski on Reggie Bush- Rookie of the Year
 

I couldn't justify giving Bush the award over guys like MJD or Young because of what he "could" do over what they "did" do.

Re: Ron Jaworski on Reggie Bush- Rookie of the Year
 

[ QUOTE ]
I couldn't justify giving Bush the award over guys like MJD or Young because of what he "could" do over what they "did" do.

[/ QUOTE ]

I agree with this.

Assani---I think a better argument would be taking Bush over the other two going forward, but I still think young quarterbacks who win football games are just too valuable.

Re: Ron Jaworski on Reggie Bush- Rookie of the Year
 

btw, I'm not trying to bash MJD at all, but here was a post on FBGs that I found interesting:

Here are his stats in Jags wins:

CODE
+----------+-------------+--------+----+
| WK OPP | RSH YD | RECYD | TD |
+----------+-------------+--------+----+
| 1 dal | 2 8 | 0 | 0 |
| 2 pit | 2 4 | 6 | 0 |
| 5 nyj | 13 59 | 0 | 2 |
| 8 phi | 21 77 | 20 | 0 |
| 9 ten | 8 56 | 29 | 0 |
| 11 nyg | 9 45 | 16 | 1 |
| 13 mia | 5 46 | 0 | 1 |
| 14 ind | 15 166 | 15 | 2 |


The first two wins he had nothing to do with. The Jets, he ran up stats in garbage time in a 41-0 game. He didn't score against Philly or Tennessee, and against the Titans, had just 5 yards in the first half, only getting playing time after they were up 20-0. Against the Giants he scored a 3-yard TD with the Jags up 16-10 late in the fourth; they would have won with a field goal. Against Miami, he had 8 yards going into the fourth quarter, and scored a TD when they were up 17-7.

In fact, in all their wins this year, Jones never scored a TD when they were behind, and only scored a TD when they were tied once (in the Indy game, at 0-0). You can legitimately give MJD credit for Jacksonville winning the Indy game, but most of his stats were racked up in losses, or in garbage time in wins. Certainly you can't credit him with winning even as many as three games.

Re: Ron Jaworski on Reggie Bush- Rookie of the Year
 

[ QUOTE ]
I think that most of you around here know my general philosophy regarding the NFL and how I feel like stats are a bit overrated since so much goes into them(offensive philosophy, quality of supporting cast, etc.). Rather than blindly follow the stats I try to WATCH as much football as possible and analyze players that way.

[/ QUOTE ]

Weren't you basing your argument around Vick being an elite QB based solely on his fantasy points?

Re: Ron Jaworski on Reggie Bush- Rookie of the Year
 

I would take Bush going forward, but MJD is definitely the ROY.

Re: Ron Jaworski on Reggie Bush- Rookie of the Year
 

ive seen jaws take marcus mcneill for ROY several times

Re: Ron Jaworski on Reggie Bush- Rookie of the Year
 

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
I think that most of you around here know my general philosophy regarding the NFL and how I feel like stats are a bit overrated since so much goes into them(offensive philosophy, quality of supporting cast, etc.). Rather than blindly follow the stats I try to WATCH as much football as possible and analyze players that way.

[/ QUOTE ]

Weren't you basing your argument around Vick being an elite QB based solely on his fantasy points?

[/ QUOTE ]

no, never. I did briefly mention in one thread that Vick was the #2 QB in my FF league this year, but I have never ever said anything close to that.

Re: Ron Jaworski on Reggie Bush- Rookie of the Year
 

It sucks Colston got injured. What do you think the odds would have been at the beginning of the year that the Texans would have the defensive ROY and the Saints would have offensive ROY and NEITHER would be Williams or Bush?

Re: Ron Jaworski on Reggie Bush- Rookie of the Year
 

[ QUOTE ]
I would take Bush going forward, but Vince Young is definitely the ROY.

[/ QUOTE ]

Re: Ron Jaworski on Reggie Bush- Rookie of the Year
 

Jaws likes his award winners to be on playoff teams, that could have an affect.

I will agree that Bush had a huge impact outside of his normal production. He's probably added about 100 yards to Deuce's totals on fake end around plays alone.

Marques Colston was ROY for the first half of the year.

Reggie Bush and VY are a tossup for the last half. It's too bad they sucked the first half of the season.

There are a lot of good candidates, but I can't see anyone other than Bush or VY winning.

Edit: VY won? That's what I get for not watching ESPN all day.

Re: Ron Jaworski on Reggie Bush- Rookie of the Year
 

My ranking for ROY would go

1. Addai
2. MJD
3. Colston
4. VY
5. Bush

Re: Ron Jaworski on Reggie Bush- Rookie of the Year
 

Why?

I'd put MJD over addai.

MJD:

5.7 YPC, 941 Yards, 13 TDs. 46 Catches, 9.5 YPC, 2 Tds 436 Yards.

VS

Addai:

1081 Yards, 7 Tds (of which 4 were in 1 game), 4.8 YPC (very good). 40 catches, 325 yards, 1 TD.

So total yards are very similar. TD #s favor MJD heavily.

Re: Ron Jaworski on Reggie Bush- Rookie of the Year
 

Assani posted some stuff on MJD that you should read. Overall, Addai had a lot more to do with the Colts success than MJD had to do with the Jaguars success this year. MJD had a couple big games that make it look like he's comparable to Addai on the season, but he really was not as good.

MJD had over half his yards in 4 games this year, 2 of those being against the Colts awful rush D.

Re: Ron Jaworski on Reggie Bush- Rookie of the Year
 

[ QUOTE ]
btw, I'm not trying to bash MJD at all, but here was a post on FBGs that I found interesting:

Here are his stats in Jags wins:

CODE
+----------+-------------+--------+----+
| WK OPP | RSH YD | RECYD | TD |
+----------+-------------+--------+----+
| 1 dal | 2 8 | 0 | 0 |
| 2 pit | 2 4 | 6 | 0 |
| 5 nyj | 13 59 | 0 | 2 |
| 8 phi | 21 77 | 20 | 0 |
| 9 ten | 8 56 | 29 | 0 |
| 11 nyg | 9 45 | 16 | 1 |
| 13 mia | 5 46 | 0 | 1 |
| 14 ind | 15 166 | 15 | 2 |


The first two wins he had nothing to do with. The Jets, he ran up stats in garbage time in a 41-0 game. He didn't score against Philly or Tennessee, and against the Titans, had just 5 yards in the first half, only getting playing time after they were up 20-0. Against the Giants he scored a 3-yard TD with the Jags up 16-10 late in the fourth; they would have won with a field goal. Against Miami, he had 8 yards going into the fourth quarter, and scored a TD when they were up 17-7.

In fact, in all their wins this year, Jones never scored a TD when they were behind, and only scored a TD when they were tied once (in the Indy game, at 0-0). You can legitimately give MJD credit for Jacksonville winning the Indy game, but most of his stats were racked up in losses, or in garbage time in wins. Certainly you can't credit him with winning even as many as three games.

[/ QUOTE ]

MJD was also 3rd in the league in Kickoff yards/return and fumbled only once in 166 carries, 46 catches, 31 kickoff returns and 1 punt return.

His running DOVA was also better than Addai's. MJD was initially the third down back with Taylor getting early series carries, so much of his production came in more important spots.

It feels odd that you seem to be punishing MJD because his team didn't win when he had his best games. I understand your point, but it seems unfair to discount his better games because the rest of his team played poorly.

It also bears mentioning that Jones' offensive achievements came on a team that had poor quarterback play. Both Leftwich and Garrard posted negative DOVAs and Gray threw only 22 passes. Addai was excellent as well in 2006 but he also played in a much more favorable offensive environment.

Re: Ron Jaworski on Reggie Bush- Rookie of the Year
 

Jaws did a little segment on Bush earlier this year. He said that the defense is always accounting for Bush on every play because of their fear of him. So his presence (according to Jaws) not only helped Deuce have a great year, but also enabled Colston to get more open than he would have been without Bush.

I have no idea if the above analysis is true, but it is what Jaws was thinking at the midway point of the season.

Re: Ron Jaworski on Reggie Bush- Rookie of the Year
 

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
I would take Bush going forward, but Marquis Colston is definitely the ROY.

[/ QUOTE ]

[/ QUOTE ]

REFYP!

Re: Ron Jaworski on Reggie Bush- Rookie of the Year
 

[ QUOTE ]
Rather than blindly follow the stats I try to WATCH as much football as possible and analyze players that way.

[/ QUOTE ]

not to hijack another thread, but how do you think the FO guys get their stats?

Re: Ron Jaworski on Reggie Bush- Rookie of the Year
 

[ QUOTE ]
Jaws did a little segment on Bush earlier this year. He said that the defense is always accounting for Bush on every play because of their fear of him. So his presence (according to Jaws) not only helped Deuce have a great year, but also enabled Colston to get more open than he would have been without Bush.

I have no idea if the above analysis is true, but it is what Jaws was thinking at the midway point of the season.

[/ QUOTE ]

But can't that reasoning be flipped to give less credit to guys who play on teams whose other skill players are so good as to force attention away from the player in question or to give extra credit to those whose other skill players were so poor as to force increased focus on the player in question.

Sorta like : Bush made guys on his team better. But Addai was made better by Peyton and two of the best receivers in the league. MJD was made worse by below par QBs and WRs.


I like VY as ROY over the RBs. I'm not saying one RB is clearly better than the others, but that it is closer amongst the running backs than many seem to think and involves a high degree of subjectivity.

Re: Ron Jaworski on Reggie Bush- Rookie of the Year
 

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Rather than blindly follow the stats I try to WATCH as much football as possible and analyze players that way.

[/ QUOTE ]

not to hijack another thread, but how do you think the FO guys get their stats?

[/ QUOTE ]

Don't they get them from the NFL's official play-by-play records?

Re: Ron Jaworski on Reggie Bush- Rookie of the Year
 

Bush averaged > 5.5 yards every time he touched the ball on offense, so I don't think he had a bad year by any means. You'd like for his YPC to be higher, but I think the contributions he made to the passing game (as well as the threat he presents) offset this.

That said, Vince Young is the offensive ROY, and I really don't see how its close.

Re: Ron Jaworski on Reggie Bush- Rookie of the Year
 

5.5 yards per touch isn't that great especially when it's skewed heavily by catches and punt returning (did he kick return). Honestly, he is supposed to be a RB, if he want's to a be a WR, he should be one, but they are hoping to the future he can be the feature back. Hopefully he develops to be a better Tiki, but if he doesn't, it'll be disappointing.

Re: Ron Jaworski on Reggie Bush- Rookie of the Year
 

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
btw, I'm not trying to bash MJD at all, but here was a post on FBGs that I found interesting:

Here are his stats in Jags wins:

CODE
+----------+-------------+--------+----+
| WK OPP | RSH YD | RECYD | TD |
+----------+-------------+--------+----+
| 1 dal | 2 8 | 0 | 0 |
| 2 pit | 2 4 | 6 | 0 |
| 5 nyj | 13 59 | 0 | 2 |
| 8 phi | 21 77 | 20 | 0 |
| 9 ten | 8 56 | 29 | 0 |
| 11 nyg | 9 45 | 16 | 1 |
| 13 mia | 5 46 | 0 | 1 |
| 14 ind | 15 166 | 15 | 2 |


The first two wins he had nothing to do with. The Jets, he ran up stats in garbage time in a 41-0 game. He didn't score against Philly or Tennessee, and against the Titans, had just 5 yards in the first half, only getting playing time after they were up 20-0. Against the Giants he scored a 3-yard TD with the Jags up 16-10 late in the fourth; they would have won with a field goal. Against Miami, he had 8 yards going into the fourth quarter, and scored a TD when they were up 17-7.

In fact, in all their wins this year, Jones never scored a TD when they were behind, and only scored a TD when they were tied once (in the Indy game, at 0-0). You can legitimately give MJD credit for Jacksonville winning the Indy game, but most of his stats were racked up in losses, or in garbage time in wins. Certainly you can't credit him with winning even as many as three games.

[/ QUOTE ]

MJD was also 3rd in the league in Kickoff yards/return and fumbled only once in 166 carries, 46 catches, 31 kickoff returns and 1 punt return.

His running DOVA was also better than Addai's. MJD was initially the third down back with Taylor getting early series carries, so much of his production came in more important spots.

It feels odd that you seem to be punishing MJD because his team didn't win when he had his best games. I understand your point, but it seems unfair to discount his better games because the rest of his team played poorly.

It also bears mentioning that Jones' offensive achievements came on a team that had poor quarterback play. Both Leftwich and Garrard posted negative DOVAs and Gray threw only 22 passes. Addai was excellent as well in 2006 but he also played in a much more favorable offensive environment.

[/ QUOTE ]

Let me let everyone know the context of this post on FBGs:

People were arguing ROY, someone said that Young deserved to win because of his impact upon his team winning and that is most important.

-Someone responded by saying that at most Vince Young was responsible for 3 of the Titans wins. They listed all of their wins, and in only 3 of them was Young the main factor.

-Throughout the thread, that person had been arguing for MJD for ROY.

-So someone responded with the above and said that while YOung may have ONLY won 3, MJD won only 1 at best.

Re: Ron Jaworski on Reggie Bush- Rookie of the Year
 

Reggie Bush, weeks 1-9: 81 attempts for 207 yards (2.6 ypc), 0 TD; 46 receptions for 312 yards (6.8 ypc), 0 TD

Reggie Bush, weeks 10-17: 74 attempts for 348 yards (4.8 ypc), 6 TD; 42 receptions for 430 yards (10.2 ypc), 2 TD.

Reggie Bush in the 2nd half of the season was one of the best RBs in the league on a per play basis.

Re: Ron Jaworski on Reggie Bush- Rookie of the Year
 

Vince Young's a fine player and I think he'll post better numbers than he did this year in subsequent years. Kudos to Fisher and Chow for their coaching decisions and in their roles in his development. MJD is another fine player. Reggie Bush is yet another fine player. I might lean to MJD but I couldn't argue with choosing any of these three guys. All seem like really great guys off the field too which isn't relevant but refreshing nonetheless.

Re: Ron Jaworski on Reggie Bush- Rookie of the Year
 

[ QUOTE ]
Assani posted some stuff ... that you should read.

[/ QUOTE ]
[img]/images/graemlins/grin.gif[/img]

Re: Ron Jaworski on Reggie Bush- Rookie of the Year
 

VY FTW.

Re: Ron Jaworski on Reggie Bush- Rookie of the Year
 

[ QUOTE ]
Reggie Bush, weeks 1-9: 81 attempts for 207 yards (2.6 ypc), 0 TD; 46 receptions for 312 yards (6.8 ypc), 0 TD

Reggie Bush, weeks 10-17: 74 attempts for 348 yards (4.8 ypc), 6 TD; 42 receptions for 430 yards (10.2 ypc), 2 TD.

Reggie Bush in the 2nd half of the season was one of the best RBs in the league on a per play basis.

[/ QUOTE ]


MJD weeks 1-8: 70 attempts for 320 yards (4.6/YPC), 3 TD; 21 receptions for 198 yards (9.4 ypc), 2 TDs.

MJD weeks 10-17: 96 attempts for 621 yards (6.5/YPC), 10 TD; 25 receptions for 238 yards (9.5ypc), 0 TDs.

MJD was a better running back than Bush in the second half and played on a team with much worse passing team (although a better Oline than NO).

Re: Ron Jaworski on Reggie Bush- Rookie of the Year
 

Isn't Vince Young the 3rd best rookie QB by DVOA?

Re: Ron Jaworski on Reggie Bush- Rookie of the Year
 

MJD's opponents in run defense DVOA:

Houston - 26th
Giants - 11th
Buffalo - 29th
Miami - 3rd
Indy - 31th
Tennessee - 28th
Patriots - 10th
Chiefs - 18th

Notice that almost his entire advantage comes from a big game against Indianapolis, who makes Ron Dayne look like the best back ever, and that fluke run against New England.

Bush's opponents in run defense DVOA:

Pittsburgh - 4th
Cincy - 13th
Atlanta - 17th
San Francisco - 24th
Dallas - 8th
Washington - 19th
Giants - 11th
Carolina - 6th

Adjust for opponents.(Also, pretend the Pats know they need to touch a player who's on the ground.)

Re: Ron Jaworski on Reggie Bush- Rookie of the Year
 

[ QUOTE ]
Isn't Vince Young the 3rd best rookie QB by DVOA?

[/ QUOTE ]

Yea, but that mostly has to do with his early struggles.

DPAR has him as the 4th best QB of Week 16, and the 5th best of Week 13.

Re: Ron Jaworski on Reggie Bush- Rookie of the Year
 

[ QUOTE ]
MJD's opponents in run defense DVOA:

Houston - 26th
Giants - 11th
Buffalo - 29th
Miami - 3rd
Indy - 31th
Tennessee - 28th
Patriots - 10th
Chiefs - 18th

Notice that almost his entire advantage comes from a big game against Indianapolis, who makes Ron Dayne look like the best back ever, and that fluke run against New England.

Bush's opponents in run defense DVOA:

Pittsburgh - 4th
Cincy - 13th
Atlanta - 17th
San Francisco - 24th
Dallas - 8th
Washington - 19th
Giants - 11th
Carolina - 6th

Adjust for opponents.(Also, pretend the Pats know they need to touch a player who's on the ground.)

[/ QUOTE ]

But at some point we have to recognize that Indy is ranked as as bad as they are because 20% of the rushing yards they gave up occurred in their 2 games against Jacksonville.

We could discuss whether Bush's receiving stats are padded by the 74 yard reception he had against SF.

My point is not that MJD is clearly better than Bush, but that they both along with Addai are all really great young backs.

Re: Ron Jaworski on Reggie Bush- Rookie of the Year
 

[ QUOTE ]
But at some point we have to recognize that Indy is ranked as as bad as they are because 20% of the rushing yards they gave up occurred in their 2 games against Jacksonville.

[/ QUOTE ]

Denver. Tennessee (twice!). Philadelphia. These are the teams they gave up 6.0+ yards per carry against that aren't Jacksonville. Hell, they only gave up 100 yards or so the first time. Did I mention Ron Dayne? Indy's defense isn't some small sample size fluke.

[ QUOTE ]
We could discuss whether Bush's receiving stats are padded by the 74 yard reception he had against SF.

[/ QUOTE ]

There's long plays, and then there's long plays when all the defenders don't try to tackle you.

Re: Ron Jaworski on Reggie Bush- Rookie of the Year
 

I like Jaws a lot but he says some pretty stupid stuff some times. Bush shouldn't even be in the discussion for ROY, he's done very little to date. You have to look at how the team would be affected without that player. NO would have been nearly identical without him. Brees was their important acquisition. Maybe you could give Bush the "most potential" award, but WTF is that.

Re: Ron Jaworski on Reggie Bush- Rookie of the Year
 

Also, players like Bush, Vick, Daunte Hall, Marshal Faulk, Barry Sanders, etc. are very exciting to watch and the "defense has to be aware of them on every play", but they don't seem to do much for a team's chance of winning (as compared to an equal-value player at the same position who's not so flashy, they may be -EV).

Also, in terms of "flash" players, Devin Hester is probably more valuable.

Re: Ron Jaworski on Reggie Bush- Rookie of the Year
 

Jaws has probably watched every single play Reggie Bush has been involved in, and he sees it from the right angle to tell how defenses react to him. You? How many times have you seen him play? Twice?

Re: Ron Jaworski on Reggie Bush- Rookie of the Year
 

[ QUOTE ]
Also, players like Bush, Vick, Daunte Hall, Marshal Faulk, Barry Sanders, etc. are very exciting to watch and the "defense has to be aware of them on every play", but they don't seem to do much for a team's chance of winning (as compared to an equal-value player at the same position who's not so flashy, they may be -EV).

Also, in terms of "flash" players, Devin Hester is probably more valuable.

[/ QUOTE ]

Sorry, post got cut off. Here's the rest of my post.

MARSHALL FAULK? ARE YOU [censored] INSANE? Marshall Faulk was one of the most versatile and consistent backs of all time. WTF?

Re: Ron Jaworski on Reggie Bush- Rookie of the Year
 

[ QUOTE ]
Jaws has probably watched every single play Reggie Bush has been involved in, and he sees it from the right angle to tell how defenses react to him. You? How many times have you seen him play? Twice?

[/ QUOTE ]

This can't be emphasized enough. The standard TV shot misses so much, particularly down field coverage.

Re: Ron Jaworski on Reggie Bush- Rookie of the Year
 

[ QUOTE ]
He replied that it was easily Reggie Bush because when watching the games you could see how much the game changed when he was on the field.

[/ QUOTE ]

I think this is the real weakness in the argument.

Presuming Jaws is talking about Bush's versatility and that the defense has to pay special attention to him every time he's on the field, then I can't see how you'd vote for him over Young, who you have to defend like few, if any, other quarterbacks in the game's history.

If Jaws is referring to the actual change when Bush comes in the game...well, I think it's a bit dubious to give one player the nod over another simply because he splits carries.

-McGee