How much luck is involved in hu nlc?
 

How much luck is involved in hu nlc?

Re: How much luck is involved in hu nlc?
 

65.9%

Re: How much luck is involved in hu nlc?
 

0% you just suck.

Re: How much luck is involved in hu nlc?
 

nlc?

Re: How much luck is involved in hu nlc?
 

no limit cumming

Re: How much luck is involved in hu nlc?
 

oh nvm. (seriously)

OP, rephrase your q into something tangible.

Re: How much luck is involved in hu nlc?
 

[ QUOTE ]
oh nvm. (seriously)

OP, rephrase your q into something tangible.

[/ QUOTE ]

I don't think tangible is the word you're going for here.

Re: How much luck is involved in hu nlc?
 

Ty for the very useless replys

Re: How much luck is involved in hu nlc?
 

Ty for the very useless question.

Re: How much luck is involved in hu nlc?
 

Ty for reminding me that there are a lot of worthless idiots around

Re: How much luck is involved in hu nlc?
 

The answer depends on the format of the match. If we are talking infinitely deep stacks for an infinite number of hands, obviously there is no luck involved and the best player will always win. If we're talking about stacks of 10BB, then obviously it is almost entirely luck.

Re: How much luck is involved in hu nlc?
 

My question was obviously not very well written. I have a limited experience of hu nlc (less than 48 hours total). In some games ive been crushing my opponents and in other they have been crushing me. The thing is, what conclusions can i make after this? How big is the variance? The key hands are often draws that makes straights and so on. I´ve been playing nl poker for years and hu tourneys som i am not totally green.

Re: How much luck is involved in hu nlc?
 

[ QUOTE ]
How much luck is involved in hu nlc?

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Personally, I think the concept behind this question is important, so I'm going to give you a serious reply.

I believe a better way of approaching this question is to ask what probability distribution describes the how many games you win per n matches. (Sorry if you don't know enough prob and stat to understand this reply. check out any intro text if you need a reference). It turns out for reasons I am too lazy to describe that it is binomial(n,p), where p is your winning percentage and n is the number of games you play. On average, you will win n*p games. Your variance will be n*p*(1-p). http://www.stat.berkeley.edu/~stark/...ml/BinHist.htm is a good place to get a feel for what the distirbution looks like.

p will vary depending on who your opponent is and if you are on tilt. (duh). Anyway, hope this helps.

Re: How much luck is involved in hu nlc?
 

Ty for the good answers. My follow up question must be: If you are a good hu player, will you lose a lot of games anyway? Is it normal to lose 3 buy ins to an opponent that are slightly worse than you (but not a total donk)?

Re: How much luck is involved in hu nlc?
 

Sorry I ragged on you but this forum does not need general questions, especially very broad ones although this has been a quite hotly debated topic as of late I dont think anyone really knows the answer.

I do know this, HU NL cg variance is going to depend A LOT on the skill of your opponent. If you have a large edge your swings will be much smaller and if you edge is small I think 10 buy in swings would be pretty normal. So to answer your question, I think a 3 buy in swing will happen regardless of your edge and should be considered very normal.

Re: How much luck is involved in hu nlc?
 

Ty. thats the answer i hoped to get

Re: How much luck is involved in hu nlc?
 

I won 65 of my last 100 matches according to poker tracker and i lost 7 in a row at one point. I wont go too into detail but i think being more aggressive is giving me more of an edge, but more variance. I used to never lose more than a few in a row. To be specific, i used to win by getting money in while i have the best of it. Now i win by just taking too many pots. Im getting better results so far, but more of my wins/losses depend on hitting/missing draws now when i get caught bluffing.

Re: How much luck is involved in hu nlc?
 

I calculated the probability of loosing X matches or less in a row if one is .65 to win each match (regardless of opponent, mental state, etc) in a 100 game stretch.

7- .006
8-.04
9-.12
10-.25
11-.41
12-.56
13-.69
14-.78
15-.85
16-.90

Having some opponents be better and some worse would increase these numbers, which explains how riverspecialist hit such a low end of the distribution.

Re: How much luck is involved in hu nlc?
 

Does that mean that there's a very small chance of a 65% winner losing 7 or LESS games in a row? In other words, it's likely for a 65% winner to lose 7+ games in a row at some point during a 100 stretch? I'm probably reading it wrong!

Re: How much luck is involved in hu nlc?
 

Theoretically, I think the amount of luck playing HU is the same as with any number of players. Maybe the varience changes though. This question might be better addressed in the Theory Forum however.

Re: How much luck is involved in hu nlc?
 

[ QUOTE ]
Theoretically, I think the amount of luck playing HU is the same as with any number of players. Maybe the varience changes though. This question might be better addressed in the Theory Forum however.

[/ QUOTE ]

I don't think this is true because you avoid a lot of the "impossible" to get away from coolers that you encounter at a full table.

Re: How much luck is involved in hu nlc?
 

[ QUOTE ]

Does that mean that there's a very small chance of a 65% winner losing 7 or LESS games in a row? In other words, it's likely for a 65% winner to lose 7+ games in a row at some point during a 100 stretch? I'm probably reading it wrong!

[/ QUOTE ]

Yes. There are a few things that explain why this is counter intuitive. First, as discussed in "Freakenomics" and elsewhere, most people vastly underestimate the probability of long streaks. Second, I did use some minor approximations, but the answers should change very little. Third, you will run into some fish where you are almost the stone cold nuts to win. This decreases the probability of having a streak.

Re: How much luck is involved in hu nlc?
 

Of course ther's some luck but I can't quantify it.

If you don't get the cards you lose.

I'm just a learning player.

I played four matches yesterday.

I was better than all four players but I went 2-2.

I was dominating the first player when my AA got cracked to QJ.
He calls the allin and flop came JJx - I'm done.

Next hand I get AKs go allin he calls with 33, it holds up match over.

Next match I'm severly damaged when my AA allin gets call by 97o.

Flop 68T - I'm Done.

I crush the next two players in our matches.

I don't feel too bad because that's Poker!

Re: How much luck is involved in hu nlc?
 

[ QUOTE ]
I was better than all four players but I went 2-2.

[/ QUOTE ]

[ QUOTE ]
Next match I'm severly damaged when my AA allin gets call by 97o.

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i would dare a wager that if you're open-shoving AA preflop in a heads up match, you probably weren't outright "better" than 4 random opponents at HU poker...