10-20 Bellagio overpair facing overbet
 

I've got $4000 and villain covers.

villain views me as tight, probably a thinking player, i doubt he's on a stone cold bluff here, e.g., his range includes suited overs, etc.

i haven't gotten out of line at all up to this point.


Villain opens for $100 UTG

I call with 99 from the CO.

flop

2 [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]7 [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]4 [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]

Villain bets $175 and I call


turn

5 [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]

Villain checks, I bet $350, villain shoves.


important note: villain has overbet the pot like this twice since i've been playing and one time showed total air and the other time showed bottom pair + gutshot.





-Tex

Re: 10-20 Bellagio overpair facing overbet
 

Tx,

Do you think he's bluffing again? If so, call.

Re: 10-20 Bellagio overpair facing overbet
 

[ QUOTE ]
Tx,

Do you think he's bluffing again? If so, call.

[/ QUOTE ]

El D,

Good to see you're back to making strategy posts.

Re: 10-20 Bellagio overpair facing overbet
 

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Tx,

Do you think he's bluffing again? If so, call.

[/ QUOTE ]

El D,

Good to see you're back to making strategy posts.

[/ QUOTE ]

FoxwoodsFiend,

Good to see you're laying off the sarcasm.

Re: 10-20 Bellagio overpair facing overbet
 

I don't think your hand is strong enough to risk going bust with unless you can accurately put him on a bluff/draw with a 6 or flush draw. I believe you should fold and wait for a better spot to get the money in, especially with him having you covered for $4k.

-D.J.

Re: 10-20 Bellagio overpair facing overbet
 

Ansky,

Great to see that you're not actually Canadian.

Re: 10-20 Bellagio overpair facing overbet
 

All,

Glad to see everyone is glad to see.



-Tex

Re: 10-20 Bellagio overpair facing overbet
 

turbo muck

Re: 10-20 Bellagio overpair facing overbet
 

I love lamp.

Re: 10-20 Bellagio overpair facing overbet
 

[ QUOTE ]
I don't think your hand is strong enough to risk going bust with unless you can accurately put him on a bluff/draw with a 6 or flush draw. I believe you should fold and wait for a better spot to get the money in, especially with him having you covered for $4k.

-D.J.

[/ QUOTE ]
I'm glad you can bring this A game to high stakes. Wish you could bring it to lower stakes as well.

Re: 10-20 Bellagio overpair facing overbet
 

[ QUOTE ]
I love lamp.

[/ QUOTE ]
POTD

Re: 10-20 Bellagio overpair facing overbet
 

Why is every hand you post so basic and standard?

Re: 10-20 Bellagio overpair facing overbet
 

[ QUOTE ]
Why is every hand you post so basic and standard?

[/ QUOTE ]

i agree. this hand is really basic/boring and happens so often you should know what you're doing when you decide to bet turn.

Re: 10-20 Bellagio overpair facing overbet
 

villian has 66 here.
but you should be folding this spot generally.
and you can always consider checking behind and calling a river bluff.
and yes i know, blah blah blah protect your hand.

Re: 10-20 Bellagio overpair facing overbet
 

rbk,

I think 33 is 5-7% more likely than 66.

Re: 10-20 Bellagio overpair facing overbet
 

I think you are probably right about this around 17% of the time.

Re: 10-20 Bellagio overpair facing overbet
 

id say he is wrong 87% of the time though