Winrate at an extremely juicy, loose passive live game
 

A new 20/40 limit hold'em table has been running at the local casino for about 2 or 3 months. The overwheelming majority of the regulars there are very weak, most of them almost perfectly matching the model of a loose-passive textbook player type, who has become so rare at the medium stakes on the internet.

It's a FR table with 9 - 11 players, where 6 - 8 usually limp preflop (sometimes with hands like k4 offsuit in EP, etc.) and some players call down with middle pairs even when it's 3-handed at the river, etc.

There is no doubt that this game is extremely juicy, but since there are only about 20-25 hands dealt per hour, my question is, how big a winrate is sustainable for a strong player (who is capable of adjusting close to optimally, etc.) in the long run under these conditions?

Am I completely unrealistic when I assume about 7-9BB/100 hands to be possible?

Re: Winrate at an extremely juicy, loose passive live game
 

good live players talk about being able to make 3BB per hour at tables like these, which is about what you're hoping for. My online experience is that such win rates are easy to talk about, impossible to achieve. I mean, you're winning 8 or 9 hands in 100. How are you getting 8 or 9 BB out of that?

Re: Winrate at an extremely juicy, loose passive live game
 

You win 8-9 hands per 100? I am a LOT lower than that. I figure that in 100 hands I might see 25-30 flops and of those hands I maybe win 5-6. Either you play a lot more hands than I do, or you flop good, or you're a much better player than me (which is very possible). I am winning around ~1BB/100 but to be honest I am having trouble finding really good games these days.

Re: Winrate at an extremely juicy, loose passive live game
 

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I am winning around ~1BB/100 but to be honest I am having trouble finding really good games these days.

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Wow, find a better casino. 1bb/100 means about .3bb/hr, which means you're basically breaking even after tips/expenses, etc.

I have yet to find a live LHE game at the 30 level or below that doesn't seem beatable for at least 1bb/hr for a good player. (There are occasionally tough tables, but the next day it will go back to normal).

Re: Winrate at an extremely juicy, loose passive live game
 

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A new 20/40 limit hold'em table has been running at the local casino for about 2 or 3 months. The overwheelming majority of the regulars there are very weak, most of them almost perfectly matching the model of a loose-passive textbook player type, who has become so rare at the medium stakes on the internet.

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I'm playing in live 10/20 game like this. I have played a little over 200 hours so I don't know my true winrate yet, but at the moment I'm making a little more then 2BB/hour. With 20/25 hands an hour this would be something around 8bb/100.

ps. I'm not a strong/expert player, I just know the SSH basics, but I'm certainly the best player in that game by a mile.

Re: Winrate at an extremely juicy, loose passive live game
 

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You win 8-9 hands per 100? I am a LOT lower than that. I figure that in 100 hands I might see 25-30 flops and of those hands I maybe win 5-6. Either you play a lot more hands than I do, or you flop good, or you're a much better player than me (which is very possible). I am winning around ~1BB/100 but to be honest I am having trouble finding really good games these days.

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If you live anywhere near Canterbury then you are way wrong. I havent sat in a tough game 15-30 or below in over 2 years. The 30 is tough very rarely and us usually th juciest game.

Re: Winrate at an extremely juicy, loose passive live game
 

your "share" is about 14%. That assumes a little more than 7 players per hand which is reasonable in a live game. (12% would assume 8 players per hand) A tight player will be playing fewer hands and winning more like 8-9%, or 8-9 hands. It seems likely that you are overestimating your own bad luck/tightness.

Re: Winrate at an extremely juicy, loose passive live game
 

i think in the game you describe (6-8 limpers on average), it's possible to win about 3BB/hour. i don't believe that the game is consistently that good though. 1.5BB/hour is probably a good goal for a very good player.

Re: Winrate at an extremely juicy, loose passive live game
 

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Am I completely unrealistic when I assume about 7-9BB/100 hands to be possible?

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Yes.

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1.5BB/hour is probably a good goal for a very good player.

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On the money. If you're playing 20-40 for about 30-40 hrs a week and regularly avg'ing 1BB per hr over the course of months, that would be good.

Re: Winrate at an extremely juicy, loose passive live game
 

I never meant to imply that I've been unlucky, just that I only win 5-6 hands per 100. I am usually the tightest player at the table but when I do play I'm very aggressive. It's been a long time since I've been at a table that averages 7 players per hand. It's possible I need to loosen up a little but it's not unusual at all for me to go 5 or 6 orbits around the table before winning a hand.

My last session I played for about three hours and won 5 hands. 4 of the 5 pots were very nice so it was a good session over all but that's pretty much a typical session for me. There was one really bad player at my table but everyone else was playing fairly well. Definitely not the tard fest everyone seems to assume around here.

Re: Winrate at an extremely juicy, loose passive live game
 

Maybe you are just running bad, but in case your'e not:

Is there lots of preflop raising?

If not, are you playing drawing type hands up front?

Axs, suited connectors 78 and up, pp, etc, all become very playable hands, especially if rivers feature 2-3 or more calls.

Are you playing drawing hands strong in late position?

J10s, KQs, any suited Ace-face, etc, medium pp(77 and up) all become insta raises pf in late position if there are 4 limpers in front, and almost entirely for pot equity reasons. I would raise lots of these from the blinds also.

Also remember that hands with few outs still become playable on the flop because the pot will be offering you your 11-1. Also pushing flush and straight draws on flops to build pots is pos ev. For instance a hand like J10 on a rainbow 289 board becomes a hand I really want to push if there are at least 4-5 other players in the hand. I have likely 8 clean outs(and six very questionable ones) and want to build a pot getting paid so many ways on a draw that is like 2.5-3:1 of hitting. So goal here is to maximize the volume when I have an equity edge, rather than chase players out and "outplay" them.

Re: Winrate at an extremely juicy, loose passive live game
 

Sternroolz,

Thanks for the constructive feedback. I would say that the games are fairly passive and I do play drawing hands from early position.

I do not play drawing hands strongly in late position. I guess I prefer to see the flop cheaply with suited connectors and small pocket pairs. Is this a big leak? Raising these hands just seems to increase my variance but not my overall win rate (but i could be wrong about that).

I play my strong draws very aggressively and will raise with two or more players in the hand with me.

I very rarely raise from the blinds (except for JJ+). I will raise from the small blind if there's just one or two limpers and I think the big blind will fold.

Re: Winrate at an extremely juicy, loose passive live game
 

"I very rarely raise from the blinds (except for JJ+). "

[img]/images/graemlins/frown.gif[/img]

Re: Winrate at an extremely juicy, loose passive live game
 

What range of hands should I be raising from the blinds assuming 3-4 limpers?

Re: Winrate at an extremely juicy, loose passive live game
 

I'm not so sure about the 25 hands/hr for live poker. In AC Borg/Taj I've counted hands in 8 random 1/2 hrs (each with a separate dealer) and gotten the following - 16, 19, 20, 29, 18, 24, 18, 22. this comes out to around 20 hands per half/hour.

i make a just under 1BB/hr (after tips). ain't no expert, try my best to play ABC.

Re: Winrate at an extremely juicy, loose passive live game
 

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What range of hands should I be raising from the blinds assuming 3-4 limpers?

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Something like TT+, TJs, QJs, KJs+, ATs+, AQo+ is looking better.

Re: Winrate at an extremely juicy, loose passive live game
 

Interesting. I never raise JTs or QJs from the blinds. Although to be fair I should have added TT and AJs+ to my original post. I really don't like playing out of position so I tend to play rather weak tight from the blinds.

Re: Winrate at an extremely juicy, loose passive live game
 

big pairs, suited broadways, the premium unsuited hands...

Re: Winrate at an extremely juicy, loose passive live game
 

OK, thank you for the replies! I guess I will play a few sessions there during the next weeks. Even if an hourly rate of 100+bucks may not be sustainable in the long run, that game
is at least a nice occasional alternative to the more aggressive high-variance internet games.