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- - Value Betting (http://archives1.twoplustwo.com/showthread.php?t=294142)

I seem to puss out on the last value bet when I have the best hand and am missing out on some valuable cash. Am I missing something on these hands that tells me I need to push one more bet or do I just need bigger kajones?

Full Tilt Poker
Limit Holdem Ring game
Limit: $0.25/$0.5
9 players
Converter

Pre-flop: (9 players) Boggy Depot is MP3 with T[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] 9[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]
3 folds, MP2 calls, Boggy Depot (poster) checks, CO raises, 2 folds, BB calls, MP2 calls, Boggy Depot calls.

Flop: 4[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] Q[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] Q[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] (8.4SB, 4 players)
BB checks, MP2 checks, Boggy Depot bets, CO calls, 2 folds.

Turn: 9[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] (5.2BB, 2 players)
Boggy Depot bets, CO raises, Boggy Depot calls.

River: 8[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] (9.2BB, 2 players)
Boggy Depot bets, CO raises, Boggy Depot calls.

Results:
Final pot: 13.2BB

Full Tilt Poker
Limit Holdem Ring game
Limit: $0.25/$0.5
9 players
Converter

Pre-flop: (9 players) Boggy Depot is MP2 with Q[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] J[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]
UTG folds, UTG+1 calls, MP1 folds, Boggy Depot calls, MP3 folds, CO calls, 2 folds, 2 folds, BB checks.

Flop: 9[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] J[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] 3[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] (4.4SB, 4 players)
BB checks, UTG+1 bets, Boggy Depot raises, CO calls, 2 folds.

Turn: 2[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] (4.7BB, 2 players)
Boggy Depot bets, CO calls.

River: 4[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] (6.7BB, 2 players)
Boggy Depot checks, CO checks.

Results:
Final pot: 6.7BB

Full Tilt Poker
Limit Holdem Ring game
Limit: $0.25/$0.5
9 players
Converter

Pre-flop: (9 players) Boggy Depot is MP1 with 5[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] 5[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]
2 folds, Boggy Depot calls, 3 folds, Button raises, 2 folds, Boggy Depot calls.

Flop: A[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] A[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] A[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] (5.4SB, 2 players)
Boggy Depot checks, Button bets, Boggy Depot raises, Button calls.

Turn: 2[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] (4.7BB, 2 players)
Boggy Depot bets, Button calls.

River: 3[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] (6.7BB, 2 players)
Boggy Depot checks, Button checks.

Results:
Final pot: 6.7BB

Re: Value Betting

hand 1, 3bet the river
hand 2, bet the river
hand 3, fold preflop. given that you didn't, your play is fine.

Re: Value Betting

I am ok with the first hand.

Hand two is a value bet for sure and hand 3 is a little stranger but I think it is ok.

Hand-reading is important in these situations IMO. If you look at hand two, most hands that he plays this way are worse than yours.

With a value bet you are looking to be called by a hand worse than yours in order for it to be profitable. This doesn't necessarily mean that it always has to be worse than yours.

Re: Value Betting

Hand 2 and 3: clear value-bets IMO.
Hand 1 is a little confusing though because the river card should look scary to villain, but he doesnt seem to care much.
But Im tending to a reraise here because I cannot imagine which holding he would be raising PF which beats you. He probably has the queen. That means he cannot have a better flush.
He might have a FH. But I think trip Qs is about equally likely.

Re: Value Betting

Hand 1, I would checkraise the river.
In hand 2, you should definitely bet the river.
Hand 3 is a fold preflop. On the river, it's certainly unlikely that he has an ace, and it's very likely that he has an unpaired hand. Betting gets value the few times that he has KQ and is willing to call the river with it. So betting is better.

Re: Value Betting

[ QUOTE ]
hand 1, 3bet the river

[/ QUOTE ]

Are you afraid at all of villian having a full house? He could have been looking to get more callers on the flop with his 3 of a kind. The turn raise seems suspicious.

[ QUOTE ]
hand 2, bet the river

[/ QUOTE ]

[ QUOTE ]
hand 3, fold preflop. given that you didn't, your play is fine.

[/ QUOTE ]

I thought small pocket pairs were OK to play against loose/passive preflop players. I personally would have played this against many opponents.

2 and 3 are clear river bets, 1 I'm iffy about reraising.

Re: Value Betting

*grunch*

In all of these situations, the villain has not given you any indication that you are beaten (hand 1 is the most credible signal, but you are more likely ahead of trips than you are behind a boat). This is especially the case without reads. You should bet/raise all of these rivers.

Re: Value Betting

Looking at it now it seems that Hand 2 is an obvious value bet.

Hand 1 scared me off because villian didn't seem to care what I did or what came on the board. I figured he had the Queen but when he raised again once the possible flush came on the river I thought maybe Q9 or Q8.

Hand 3 I usually fold but the table had gone LP Preflop. Several hands prior had 5-8 players with no raises.

Is it safe to say that when it comes to value betting I only have to be right more than I'm wrong, but not necessarily a lot more, for it to be profitable?

Re: Value Betting

*grunch*

1st Hand:
Check raise the river, don't donk it. Villain is representing a strong hand and will bet. If he 3-bets, I cap, unless I have some respect for the villain.

2nd Hand:
Bet the river, the 4 is not a scare card. Another diamond would be a scare card.

3rd Hand:
Checking the river is fine. The villain may have a pair that still beats, and unpaired hand is unlikely to call a bet. He probably did not raise with anything involving a 2 or a 3.

Re: Value Betting

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
hand 3, fold preflop. given that you didn't, your play is fine.

[/ QUOTE ]

I thought small pocket pairs were OK to play against loose/passive preflop players. I personally would have played this against many opponents.

[/ QUOTE ]

Hero is at a 9-handed table with 2 folds in front of him, so you should think of this as open-limping at a 7-handed table. I would basically never open-limp 55 at a 6-handed table (I would need some very unusual circumstances for that to happen).

Re: Value Betting

*grunch*

Hand 1: I think I like a 3-bet here, actually. I think a higher FD probably would've raised the flop, so you're most likely up against AQ or KQ. The only other reasonable hand he could have played this way (that beats you) is 99, which is unlikely.

Hand 2: Bet. He hasn't shown anything to make you think your hand is beat, and he seems willing to call down.

Hand 3: I think a c/c is fine here, especially if you think he will bluff at you with just high cards. I would bet at it if I thought he would call with just high cards, though.

Re: Value Betting

Hand 1 you checkraise and call a 3bet because he probably has trips and won't be able to check behind with it, but if you're 3bet it's more likely to be a full house.

Hand 2 easy value bet as others have stated.

Hand 3 is one of those "I'm going to call anyway so I might as well bet/fold" type bets.

[ QUOTE ]
Is it safe to say that when it comes to value betting I only have to be right more than I'm wrong, but not necessarily a lot more, for it to be profitable

[/ QUOTE ]

Not always, if you're out of position. I'll find a link to an explanation about that one.

Re: Value Betting

I sometimes open raise 55+ in that spot (hand 3), is it that bad?

Re: Value Betting

Hand 1: Puss-out. What do you think Villain has that beats you? He checkraised the turn, all but eliminating the chances of a higher flush. And he raised preflop, so that all but eliminates fluky full houses with Q9 or Q8. If he's beating you, he has 99 or QQ, and there's only one way to have each of those hands since two of both cards are out. This is AQ 98.3% of the time (give or take). Three-smack the river.

Hand 2: Puss-out, but not as much as Hand 1. I bet/fold. CO's line could be a turned flush that he's waiting to raise the river on, but it could also be a weaker Jack, JT maybe.

Hand 3: nh, except for the preflop limp. Button took a retarded line if he has quads (and the river check-behind is a dead giveaway that he doesn't, so end your conversions at the decision point, please). But this is something like 99 a fairly decent amount of the time. KQ probably will bet as a bluff but not call. So c/c is best.

Re: Value Betting

[ QUOTE ]
I sometimes open raise 55+ in that spot (hand 3), is it that bad?

[/ QUOTE ]

Depends on what "sometimes" means. I usually don't play small pairs up front at 6-max games. I take something like 77+ or 88+ depending on how loose the players are behind me (both preflop and postflop).