MNF Cincinnati @ Indianapolis
 

I am 100% on my own MNF thread picks (small sample size: just last week [img]/images/graemlins/tongue.gif[/img])

Rudi Johnson will have a great game, and that probably won't be a surprise... but I believe the Bengals wide receivers will also have a good night. The Colts have injuries to key defensive starters Bob Sanders (knee), Marlin Jackson (shoulder), and Antoine Bethea (shoulder), which means their pass defense will be weaker than usual.

Indy's offense has struggled as of late (aside from scoring 45 against the Eagles, they have only put up 14, 17, 17, and 17 in their other recent games) while Cinci's defense has been surprisingly good (33 points allowed in their past 4 games). Also, the Colts will be missing Dallas Clark (knee) and Brandon Stokley (Achilles) tonight, meaning the Bengals can be more focused on containing Marvin Harrison.

Although I feel like the Bengals have a decent shot at winning, the Colts are still at home and it's hard to count out Peyton Manning.

My picks:
Bengals +3.5
Under 55

Re: MNF Cincinnati @ Indianapolis
 

I like both of these plays. Bengals +3.5 is my game of the week. I agree on the under as well, this game isn't going to be as high scoring as the general public would think with Rudi...Rudi...Rudi pounding the ball.

Re: MNF Cincinnati @ Indianapolis
 

i'll be watching this thread the rest of the afternoon, as i have the bengals moneyline left on a 4 team money-line tease, and i'm wondering whether to lay off or not..

pretty decent chunk of money (for me) coming off a 1-unit bet..i know i should just gamboool, but right now, i'm leaning towards splitting the difference, especially if the indy moneyline keeps dropping...

Re: MNF Cincinnati @ Indianapolis
 

What's the hook worth here if youre on cincy? I see +3 at +105, and +3 1/2 at -120. Ideas?

Re: MNF Cincinnati @ Indianapolis
 

The total here opened at 50 1/2. Conventional wisdom tells us that when a line moves early it's the sharps causing the movement. This line wasn't moved 1 point, we're talking 4 1/2 points here guys.

I would hate to wait too long and lose a point or a half on this total but that HUGE ealy line move has given me reason to pause before I unload. I'm gonna wait at least another couple hours to see what happens.

Sure Cinci figures to run the ball and eat some clock. However, Peyton will still be putting it up and despite the injuries he's gonna connect. The Cinci DBs aren't scaring anyone and their linebackers leave alot to be desired.

Re: MNF Cincinnati @ Indianapolis
 

[ QUOTE ]
What's the hook worth here if youre on cincy? I see +3 at +105, and +3 1/2 at -120. Ideas?

[/ QUOTE ]
25c for the NFL 3 is fairly standard market price (though 15-20c is out there depending on where you have accounts). you can get 8-9c better than what you listed on pinnacle - in terms of the straight prices, not the hook itself.

Re: MNF Cincinnati @ Indianapolis
 

fwiw i have the under at 54.5 and cincy moneyline. pinny doesnt have rudi total carries, but i would bet the over if it was less than 25.

rj

Re: MNF Cincinnati @ Indianapolis
 

Interesting bit of data from KC Joyner via ESPN insider:
http://insider.espn.go.com/nfl/insid...amp;id=2696061

Most pundits are pointing to the Colts' run defense as the reason this team has lost three of its last four games, but the Indianapolis offense isn't exactly holding its own. This unit has scored fewer than 20 points in four of the last five games.

The first reason this group is struggling is because Peyton Manning is taking a much more conservative approach in his passing game over the past few weeks. I tracked the Colts' pass depth distribution, starting with the Buffalo game in Week 10 through the first half of Sunday's game at Jacksonville. I excluded the second half of the game against the Jaguars, because the Colts were in comeback mode after falling behind 31-10 early in the third quarter. Here are the percentages of each type of pass for that period:

Short: 62.6
Medium: 18.4
Deep: 12.9

Compare those figures with the percentages for this season and the previous two seasons:

Peyton Manning
Depth 2004 2005 2006
Short 58.8 55.6 52.9
Medium 22.7 23.8 25.4
Deep 15.1 13.9 15.9

So why is Manning becoming more conservative? Simply put, he doesn't have as many vertical receiving options. To illustrate what I mean, here are the metrics this year for the No. 3 receivers, Dallas Clark and Brandon Stokley:

Wide Receivers
Player Att Comp Yds TD INT Pen P-Yds YPA
Clark 50 26 311 4 3 0 0 6.2
Stokely 12 8 85 1 0 1 21 8.8
Total 62 34 396 5 3 1 21 6.7

To put the 6.7 YPA total in perspective, when Manning posted his league-leading 9.2 YPA in 2004, Stokley averaged 9.6 yards per attempt on 124 passes. When Stokley's YPA dropped to 8.3 on 69 passes in 2005, Manning's YPA dropped to 8.3. Stokley has been out for most of this season, and that is a large reason why Manning's YPA has dropped to 7.9 this year.

Clark may have been a mediocre No. 3 wide receiver, but things have gotten worse since his injury in the Philadelphia game a couple of weeks ago. The Colts have had to move TE Bryan Fletcher to the No. 3 spot.

Consequently, the tight end position has been eliminated from the passing game. Also, Fletcher is not as good as Clark as a No. 3 receiver. Even if the Colts are able to find a way around this weakness in the next few weeks, it is certainly something they will want to address in free agency next season.

Re: MNF Cincinnati @ Indianapolis
 

The numbers strongly favor the UNDER, but if Addai and Rhodes can't play then the Colts will throw every down. To get the OVER you'll need a TD by each team in every quarter.

The numbers also favor the Bengals, but three of the last four Colts games were on the road with questionable motivation. The Bengals have pretty much had to keep winning to stay in the hunt.

The Colts have clinched a playoff spot, while the Bengals have not. If the Colts lose, however, then they're going to be in a world of hurt. This game comes down to character, and in these circumstances it's hard to bet against Manning and Dungy. I wouldn't trust the Bengals' character with a 50ft pole.

The market price says the Colts win ~62% of the time, and I see no reason to deviate from that very much in either direction. With a gun to my head I'd take the Colts.

Re: MNF Cincinnati @ Indianapolis
 

Not only have the Colts clenched a playoff spot, but they've clenched the first game at home.
They're only playing for home field in the second game at this point.

I think the +3.5 is huge here. I have the true line at Cincy -1.

This is my largest NFL bet of the year so far.

Re: MNF Cincinnati @ Indianapolis
 

Watching the O/U line movements for the past hour. Briefly dipped to 54 1/2 and I do mean BRIEFLY. All major book back at 55. Think I'll look at the added CBB games to see if there is any value out there. The total here is too scary.

Re: MNF Cincinnati @ Indianapolis
 

Just got on Cincy at +3 (+115) for 2.5 units. The Bengals were my preseason pick to win the Super Bowl and they've been playing like they're that good the last few weeks. Indy's banged up, and while they want the 1 seed, you just can't be as motivated to get a good seed as you are to get a playoff spot, especially in Indy's case where they've had the top seed and blown it before. I think Performify's assessment of Cincy -1 being a fair line sounds spot on.

Re: MNF Cincinnati @ Indianapolis
 

O/U is now at 55.5 on Bodog

Re: MNF Cincinnati @ Indianapolis
 

How does everyone feel about taking CIN on the ML(+150)? Is there more value here, or taking the 3 pts(+105)?

Re: MNF Cincinnati @ Indianapolis
 

[ QUOTE ]
I like both of these plays. Bengals +3.5 is my game of the week. I agree on the under as well, this game isn't going to be as high scoring as the general public would think with Rudi...Rudi...Rudi pounding the ball.

[/ QUOTE ]
Im getting +3/+105 for CIN, P. Do you think the ML (+150) might be a better option here, or just take the pts.?

Re: MNF Cincinnati @ Indianapolis
 

[ QUOTE ]
I think the +3.5 is huge here. I have the true line at Cincy -1.

[/ QUOTE ]

WTF?

C'mon. You either have the worst unit system ever created for are kidding yourself.

Kelly says this is a >20% of bankroll play if you capping is correct. From this we can draw one of two conclusions: 1) You have a greater than 30% ROI and are choosing to pass this up for who knows why. 2) Your line is wrong.

Re: MNF Cincinnati @ Indianapolis
 

I show this game as basically a pick em. The ML for the Bengals is the best value.

Re: MNF Cincinnati @ Indianapolis
 

[ QUOTE ]
O/U is now at 55.5 on Bodog

[/ QUOTE ]

Last year, these 2 teams combined for 63 points by halftime! I'm trying to think logically here, but if the Colts D is bad, don't you think Peyton knows that he has to score a ton of points to win this game? He knows they can't win a 20-17 game here. Also, with all the talk about losing recently and the offense being inept (by Indy standards) I kind of believe Peyton will come out smoking hot with alot of no huddle against the Bengals D. Once TD's start flying from the Colts, the Bengals will try to equally abuse the Colts injury riddled secondary with CJ, TJ and Henry with alot of no huddle. If the Bengals can get a lead, I expect them to pound the ball alot late in the 3rd and 4th qtrs. However both teams know they have to score, and Palmer has got to be thinking we can destroy the Colts via the air. I expect more passing early and more rushing late. However Bratkowski is an interesting O-coordinator- so I could be wrong. But I would think he would want to score early through the air, then if they have the lead in the 4th quarter, just melt the clock with the run and keep peyton off the field.

Also, the Bengals D looked good over the past 3 weeks, but of course it's hard to look bad against the Browns, Raiders and Ravens offenses. Adams is playing better, plus we got our Safety back in Jackson. However, it's not like they are superstars and their addition turns us from a 30th ranked D, to a top 10 unit. We are a 20-24 ranked D. The same defense that allowed Brees to throw for 500+ yards and for San Diego to score 30+ points in 1 half.

I put 3 units on the over at 54.5 earlier this week. Both teams can easily explode for a combined 21 points in 5 minutes. Both teams know they need to score to win, and they will.

Re: MNF Cincinnati @ Indianapolis
 

Oops.

Re: MNF Cincinnati @ Indianapolis
 

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
I think the +3.5 is huge here. I have the true line at Cincy -1.

[/ QUOTE ]

WTF?

C'mon. You either have the worst unit system ever created for are kidding yourself.

Kelly says this is a >20% of bankroll play if you capping is correct. From this we can draw one of two conclusions: 1) You have a greater than 30% ROI and are choosing to pass this up for who knows why. 2) Your line is wrong.

[/ QUOTE ]If you're going to use Kelly then you better make sure it's fractional. Lets say this game is a true Bengals win 52% of the time. If you risk 20% of your bankroll on a 52% true odds play then you're going to go broke 2.55% of the time (an 0-5 streak). Not to mention that the other situations in which you don't win don't put you in a good position. 20% on a true odds ~52% is never the right choice.

[/ QUOTE ]

What if I think the true line is Cincy -10? Do I just go arrrr eeeen

ARRRR EEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEN

Re: MNF Cincinnati @ Indianapolis
 

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
I think the +3.5 is huge here. I have the true line at Cincy -1.

[/ QUOTE ]

WTF?

C'mon. You either have the worst unit system ever created for are kidding yourself.

Kelly says this is a >20% of bankroll play if you capping is correct. From this we can draw one of two conclusions: 1) You have a greater than 30% ROI and are choosing to pass this up for who knows why. 2) Your line is wrong.

[/ QUOTE ]

stop being a grump and enjoy the hookers and blow we are about to receive

Re: MNF Cincinnati @ Indianapolis
 

I deleted the post because the math isn't right. I had a brain fart and assumed you're taking Cinci on the money line. 20% is still too much. [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]

Re: MNF Cincinnati @ Indianapolis
 

[ QUOTE ]
Not only have the Colts clenched a playoff spot, but they've clenched the first game at home.
They're only playing for home field in the second game at this point.

I think the +3.5 is huge here. I have the true line at Cincy -1.

This is my largest NFL bet of the year so far.

[/ QUOTE ]

if you dont mind me asking, why not bet the moneyline?

rj

Re: MNF Cincinnati @ Indianapolis
 

[ QUOTE ]
If you risk 20% of your bankroll on a 52% true odds play then you're going to go broke 2.55% of the time (an 0-5 streak).

[/ QUOTE ]
You're forgetting the fact that if full Kelly betting calls for a 20% bankroll play, the absolute amount wagered will be diminished for the subsequent plays. (The case of simultaneous full Kelly betting is different.) Thus, an 0-5 streak is not sufficient to bust a full-Kelly bettor.

Re: MNF Cincinnati @ Indianapolis
 

colts-160 holla

Re: MNF Cincinnati @ Indianapolis
 

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
If you risk 20% of your bankroll on a 52% true odds play then you're going to go broke 2.55% of the time (an 0-5 streak).

[/ QUOTE ]
You're forgetting the fact that if full Kelly betting calls for a 20% bankroll play, the absolute amount wagered will be diminished for the subsequent plays. (The case of simultaneous full Kelly betting is different.) Thus, an 0-5 streak is not sufficient to bust a full-Kelly bettor.

[/ QUOTE ]You're right, and correct me if I'm wrong, but the most successful Kelly bettors wouldn't risk 20% on a play.

Re: MNF Cincinnati @ Indianapolis
 

Just hit a nice 1k moneyline on the Jets yesterday, only making this one a 2.5 unit play on the Bengals moneyline, hope you guys are right [img]/images/graemlins/tongue.gif[/img] Gamboooooooolllllllll

Re: MNF Cincinnati @ Indianapolis
 

[ QUOTE ]
Just hit a nice moneyline on the Jets yesterday

[/ QUOTE ]
Yeah, we both loved that play and it paid off handsomely.... HOLLA

Re: MNF Cincinnati @ Indianapolis
 

I'm on CIN +3.5, -110 and also under 55.5.

I'm also a huge Bengals fan.


WHO DEY!!!!!!!!


Also, I guess I can see CIN has been playing well enough and IND crappy enough for CIN to be close to a 4-point neutral-field favorite for this one (referring to performify's contention that CIN is -1 at IND).
At first, it doesn't seem right because IND has been so good before afterall.

But it's not a total accident that they got destroyed so badly at JAX and now they're finally angry enough to get it turned around and do something about it.
They've been motivated for a few weeks now and STILL look kinda lousy.


Whereas CIN really does look pretty good these days.


So 4-point faves for CIN on neutral-turf isn't TOO crazy imo.
I would rate CIN as 2.5-3 points better than IND meaning that I think this game should be close to a pick-em in IND.
Yes, IND has been looking that awful lately.
And CIN has all kinds of crazy momentum.



Did I happen to mention WHO DEY!!!!!!!

Re: MNF Cincinnati @ Indianapolis
 

I just want to bring a different perspective as i have picked the colts tonight -3. Everyone keeps talking about the colts run defense and i do understand that it is the worst in the league. it has been all season! the colts are 10 and 3 with the worst run d. this is not why i picked them tonight however im just pointing out there are other aspects to look at. another thing to look at is the fact that indi happens to be undefeated at home this season. so you might want to take a look around at some other stats before you start singing about rudi johnson. and one last thing enough about how the colts have clinched its monday night and Peyton and the colts are coming to play.

Re: MNF Cincinnati @ Indianapolis
 

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Just hit a nice moneyline on the Jets yesterday

[/ QUOTE ]
Yeah, we both loved that play and it paid off handsomely.... HOLLA

[/ QUOTE ]
Rich my new friend, gamboooooooooooool, put some of those winning on the Bengals babyyyyyy

Re: MNF Cincinnati @ Indianapolis
 

[ QUOTE ]
I deleted the post because the math isn't right. I had a brain fart and assumed you're taking Cinci on the money line. 20% is still too much. [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]

[/ QUOTE ]

Doesn't Kelly have a ~12-14% busto %?

Re: MNF Cincinnati @ Indianapolis
 

am i the only one holding the bengals that's really nervous the rest of the forum isn't on the colts? i feel like a square.

Re: MNF Cincinnati @ Indianapolis
 

[ QUOTE ]
am i the only one holding the bengals that's really nervous the rest of the forum isn't on the colts? i feel like a square.

[/ QUOTE ]

I'm on the colts -3.5 if it makes you feel any better.

Re: MNF Cincinnati @ Indianapolis
 

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[ QUOTE ]
am i the only one holding the bengals that's really nervous the rest of the forum isn't on the colts? i feel like a square.

[/ QUOTE ]

I'm on the colts -3.5 if it makes you feel any better.

[/ QUOTE ]

heh, for some reason i just feel like i'm walking into a trap when everybody likes the team i'm on.

Re: MNF Cincinnati @ Indianapolis
 

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heh, for some reason i just feel like i'm walking into a trap when MicroBob likes the team i'm on.

[/ QUOTE ]


This is what you should be thinking.

Re: MNF Cincinnati @ Indianapolis
 

[ QUOTE ]
am i the only one holding the bengals that's really nervous the rest of the forum isn't on the colts? i feel like a square.

[/ QUOTE ]

I agree that Cincy is more the square side than not.

Re: MNF Cincinnati @ Indianapolis
 

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
am i the only one holding the bengals that's really nervous the rest of the forum isn't on the colts? i feel like a square.

[/ QUOTE ]

I agree that Cincy is more the square side than not.

[/ QUOTE ]

Not really, more people in the general public are on Indy than Cincy.

Re: MNF Cincinnati @ Indianapolis
 

Late game sharps on Indy.

Re: MNF Cincinnati @ Indianapolis
 

The Bengals are just fu#$)(*#$ing terrible, their defence doesn't exist, oh well, at least I won my bigger bet for the week