50/100 party hand
 

you get 4 [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]5 [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] in the big blind.

There is a raise and 3 callers and you call getting 9.5:1

the flop is 2 [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]6 [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]J [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]

PFRaiser bets, First caller raises, second caller folds, 3rd caller Reraises.

What's your play?

Re: 50/100 party hand
 

seems like the only question to be answered is if there's a higher flush draw out there

Re: 50/100 party hand
 

I would bet the flop here. I like your hand.

TSP

Re: 50/100 party hand
 

you called with 5 high and got almost the perfect flop with lots of people in there with a straight flush draw. Call and don't go too crazy if you hit your 5 high flush. Only way you fold is if it's 3 bets to you on the turn and the board is paired.

Re: 50/100 party hand
 

I think you can muck here.

Re: 50/100 party hand
 

I think I'm calling here. Pre flop raiser is in auto lead mode since he was the PFR. First raiser likely has a Jack or a pocket pair and is trying to protect his hand. The 3rd caller reraiser could have anything from AJ to a set or diamonds.

Without the gutshot draw I think it's close, add in the gutshot draw and I'm definatly calling here.

Re: 50/100 party hand
 

This is similar to Easy Goer's post. I'm surprised if it's different from mid limits where it's almost a given that the flop, whatever it is here, will be played fast and attacked.

If you're playing it, why start out sitting back hoping for the perfect scenario of facing the field with 2 bets after c/r'ing the LP's bet? It's too easy to get moved off your hand that way. Bet out and get it rolling.

Re: 50/100 party hand
 

[ QUOTE ]
I would bet the flop here. I like your hand.

TSP

[/ QUOTE ]

I like the hand too, but do you really want to bet out here. Looking at a likely raise from the preflop raiser, do you want to end up head up? When this happens you still likely end up with the same outs you had before. Its not like he can clear out a hand you want out either. Anyone with a better flush draw is calling two cold anyway.

I certainly don't mind tryin to get in some bets here on the flop but I think you're better off doing it by check raising the field when you get a bet and a caller or two.

-ActionBob

Re: 50/100 party hand
 

what about a fold? out of the question?

Re: 50/100 party hand
 

[ QUOTE ]
what about a fold? out of the question?

[/ QUOTE ]

not an easy fold, but my play is fold.

Re: 50/100 party hand
 

[ QUOTE ]
what about a fold? out of the question?

[/ QUOTE ]

that was my first thought when reading this hand.

you are really in trouble here (vs. a higher flush draw) unless you are against only good hands, which would also cost you a bit in terms of redraws available. again, unless you're against idiots.

id probably fold it if i checked this hand. calling 3 bets cold is risky, especailly since youcan't be as agressive as you'd like to be if you hit (unless you catch perfect of course).

EDIT: w/o decent reads

Barron

Re: 50/100 party hand
 

You're probably drawing to one out here. Dump it.

Re: 50/100 party hand
 

I think this is probably a fold, but we should probably do some math.

Re: 50/100 party hand
 

[ QUOTE ]
You're probably drawing to one out here. Dump it.

[/ QUOTE ]

He has at least 4 (all the 3's).

I think it's a fold.

Call
 

Just wanted to step in and say I really dont think this is a fold here. I am not sure and a bunch of good players in succession just leaned towards fold but I really doubt it. Maybe I will try to do some math later while I pack for the Bahammas.

I think if anything, the gutshot outs keep u in there. You guys are overestimating the times a higher draw is out there IMO. It has to be pretty often to make this a fold.

Re: Call
 

[ QUOTE ]
Just wanted to step in and say I really dont think this is a fold here. I am not sure and a bunch of good players in succession just leaned towards fold but I really doubt it. Maybe I will try to do some math later while I pack for the Bahammas.

I think if anything, the gutshot outs keep u in there. You guys are overestimating the times a higher draw is out there IMO. It has to be pretty often to make this a fold.

[/ QUOTE ]

I agree that we really need to do some math. I don't have time during the day to do it.

Re: 50/100 party hand
 

I'm guessing that the math will show that continuing with the hand is best if people don't get overzealous and assume bigger diamonds are out there more than say 40-50% of the time. Also, even if it's correct to fold, i am never doing it, this flop is too pretty for this hand, and you HAVE A CHANCE AT STRAIGHT FLUSH!

Re: 50/100 party hand
 

I def. like a fold and I hate a flop lead.

Re: 50/100 party hand
 

I would run some poker stove sims, but I have convinced myself that it is a trojan horse for spyware that sends DERB my hole cards - thus I can not install it on my computer :-)

Re: 50/100 party hand
 

definite possibility

Re: 50/100 party hand
 

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
You're probably drawing to one out here. Dump it.

[/ QUOTE ]

He has at least 4 (all the 3's).

I think it's a fold.

[/ QUOTE ]

You're right. Thanks for correcting me.

Re: 50/100 party hand
 

Edit

Re: 50/100 party hand
 

Calculate your number of outs. Balance for those that are clean (straight), those that aren't (flush/twopair) and decide if those warrant a call based on the pot size. Isn't this SSHE?

Is your question on leading the flop or not? Don't lead.

Iyou make your flush on the turn, lead.
If you make your straight, checkraise.

Re: 50/100 party hand
 

I want all experts in succession who said fold to get back in this thread. Its almost for sure u have to continue here. There is no real reason to put anyone on a flush draw. A cap for value and to disguise your hand makes more sense to me than a fold (although I think call is best so u keep everyone in)

Re: 50/100 party hand
 

[ QUOTE ]
I want all experts in succession who said fold to get back in this thread. Its almost for sure u have to continue here. There is no real reason to put anyone on a flush draw. A cap for value and to disguise your hand makes more sense to me than a fold (although I think call is best so u keep everyone in)

[/ QUOTE ]

Math pls.

Re: 50/100 party hand
 

I never give opponents credit for flush draws, so I'd call 3 cold.

Re: 50/100 party hand
 

I dont really think its close so I dont see why I have to do the math. You guys are the one who want to fold a big draw here, I would think u would have some idea of how many times the flush draw is out there and how often that has to happen to turn it into a fold.

I do agree that it comes down to a math problem but I would be kind of suprised if my variables make it close.

Maybe I will attempt it later I dunno

Re: 50/100 party hand
 

I stand behind my original post. I lead on the flop, and check-call the turn if the turn doesnt help me. No way do i put folks on a diamond draw on the flop (remember, I am acting first).

I like my hand, I'm going to put $ in the pot. It's really that simple. I rather start the betting than be sitting around calling 2 or 3 bets cold when it comes back to me on the flop after checking. The main reason for this is that folks will know for sure what I have when this happens.

I bet the flop, and try to make a move on the turn if I hit. Not playing this hand with this flop, as is recommended by some highly respected posters, is incorrect in my humble opinion.

TSP

Re: 50/100 party hand
 

Good post TSP. Its an interesting idea to lead here, but the position of the pre-flop raise in my opinions makes a lead here worse than other options. U leading and the PF raiser clearing the field is a horrible result for u. You dont want anyone folding on this flop.

What do u think about that? Dont u want to trap the field in here for atleast one bet on the flop when your equity should be huge instead of getting HU and being a dog?

Re: 50/100 party hand
 

I definately see your point. My experience indicates that if you have 3 cold callers after an early raise pre-flop (which is unusual in and of itself), they are not all going to muck if it is two small bets to them with this type of flop. What did these cold callers have preflop? I'd have to put them on medium pairs or various high cards, maybe suited connectors (hopefully not diamonds).

I do see your point, and I think the flop lead would be significantly better if you had 3 limpers and a late raise PF.

The only thing I know for sure is that I would never lay this hand down on the flop from the BB -- if I ever would, I would never have called with it PF in the first place.

TSP

Re: 50/100 party hand
 

If it's not too much trouble, why do you guys think that the three-bettor could have diamonds... it's a pretty uncommon play for that hand at the limits that I play.

Re: 50/100 party hand
 

Well I'm guessing it's about 50/50 you are up against a higher flush draw. So that means you effectively have 8 outs -- three straight outs, the straight flush out, and eight flush outs which are good half the time. Effectively you are about as likely to win with this hand as you are with an open ended straight draw. Which means you should call.

Re: 50/100 party hand
 

[ QUOTE ]
Well I'm guessing it's about 50/50 you are up against a higher flush draw. So that means you effectively have 8 outs -- three straight outs, the straight flush out, and eight flush outs which are good half the time. Effectively you are about as likely to win with this hand as you are with an open ended straight draw. Which means you should call.

[/ QUOTE ]

If you're up against a higher draw, count on losing at least 2 BB when you hit, but once you call 3 cold here you kill all of your action if you aren't. Your implied odds suck so I think this is a pass.

Edit: I guess you can cap to disguise it and maybe be sure to fold something like A [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] Kx but it sure feels like spewing [img]/images/graemlins/confused.gif[/img]

Re: 50/100 party hand
 

Easy fold IMO. Sure the pots big, but the action indicated that unless these guys are morons you're drawing at a gutshot most of the time to win, and i dont think your flush draw will be good here very often, especially when you take into consideration the times it will come diamond, diamond.

Looks a lot like someone having TP w/ f draw here.

I'd fold this hand PF though, so i wouldnt be in this spot, but, assuming i was in this hand, i'd probably see a draw at the total nuts and lead at it. But, given the situation, if i checked the flop, i'm folding here when it's 3 to me.




Tex

Re: 50/100 party hand
 

[ QUOTE ]


I'd fold this hand PF though, so i wouldnt be in this spot, but, assuming i was in this hand, i'd probably see a draw at the total nuts and lead at it.




Tex

[/ QUOTE ]

Folding this hand preflop would be just plain wrong.

Re: 50/100 party hand
 

Per Catalin Barboianu in "Texas Hold'em Odds", if you flop a 4 flush when you have 2 of a suit then the probability of AT LEAST ONE OF YOUR OPPONENTS making a flush vs 3 opponents is 4.439%. OTOH, if there are 3 flush cards on the board by the river (giving you a flush) then the probability of AT LEAST ONE OF YOUR OPPONENTS making a flush vs 3 opponents is 7.075%.

Re: 50/100 party hand
 

You guys are nuts. Cap.

Re: 50/100 party hand
 

[ QUOTE ]
I think this is probably a fold, but we should probably do some math.

[/ QUOTE ]

I would think that you will lose about 30-35% of the time you hit one of your draws here, other than your 4% chance at the stone cold nuts. But I am not sure whether this would make it a call, fold, or raise.

Re: 50/100 party hand
 

Let's do some very quick math here. Assuming the pfr is going to fold for two more AND the flop raiser is going to cap (this is worst-case scenario as far as pot odds goes), you'll be getting 19:4 to see a turn card (9.5:2 is a better way to look at it, since you're impied odds are in terms of big bets).

So if we ignore implied odds altogether, you need just under 10 outs in order to call. You have 4 outs 100% of the time, so your other 8 flush outs must be good roughly 75% of the time in order to call. (This is a bit over-simplified, but I think it's a good place to start.)

I'm not sure why everybody seems so convinced that there's a bigger flush draw out there. The flop raiser almost certainly doesn't have one, and while the 3-better could have a flush draw, I think it'd be more likely had he just cold-called. The original pfr could have a flush draw, but there's no reason to think he does either.

I really can't see folding being the best play. Nothing about the way the action's gone down so far screams flush draw to me. I think you're more likely to be up against a set than a flush draw.

Cap it up. You've got pretty good equity in this hand, and capping it keeps your hand disguised.

Re: 50/100 party hand
 

call for another card, hit the flush and on the turn and make them go away or pray one of them doesn't fill up.