bullets vs cts, river action?
 

2/4nl 6m, 400 effective

We've both been playing pretty aggressive but neither of us have played a big pot yet.

I (UTG+1) open for 14 w/ A[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]A[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], cts calls from HJ

flop (34): K[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] 2[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] 6[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]

I bet 34, he calls.

turn (102): 10[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]

I bet 102, cts pauses and calls.

river (306): 9[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]

250 left, I?

If you check, do you call ai?

Re: bullets vs cts, river action?
 

Should of added a poll in OP:

Re: bullets vs cts, river action?
 

This is quite tough. The statements
1) you are likely ahead
2) he does not likely call a push if you are ahead
3) he likely checks inferior hands behind
4) in accordance to #3, if he pushes, you are prolly not a favourite to have the best hand.

are likely true, which makes the situation quite complicated.

It comes down to how often he pays off a push and a more precise estimation of how often he pushes an inferior hand.

I am leaning towards push>c/f>c/c, but I am far from certain.

Re: bullets vs cts, river action?
 

ez'est check ever. fold if he pushes but i know cts will bluff with an inferior hand here alot and thats the only thing u beat if he bets. next time just bet a flush draw and check it to him. [img]/images/graemlins/grin.gif[/img]

Re: bullets vs cts, river action?
 

isn't UTG+1 and HJ the same position in 6max? anyway I voted cf cause I don't think he will mess with you here and probably just check behind when he has a strong hand that was already made on the turn (king) the draws all came so..

Re: bullets vs cts, river action?
 

Check. What are your stats? The TAGer you are, the less likely cts has a king here, the more its a fold if he bets. It's probably a fold regardless tbh.

Re: bullets vs cts, river action?
 

[ QUOTE ]
isn't UTG+1 and HJ the same position in 6max?

[/ QUOTE ]

UTG.. HJ.. CO.. BN... yep, my mistake, I was HJ, cts was CO.

Re: bullets vs cts, river action?
 

My stats are probably around 20/15, we hadn't played too many hands together though.

Re: bullets vs cts, river action?
 

if your title is any indication of how he views you, i would check/call.

if you were very aggressive and always fighting for pots, then i'd be pushing

Re: bullets vs cts, river action?
 

[ QUOTE ]
This is quite tough. The statements
1) you are likely ahead
2) he does not likely call a push if you are ahead
3) he likely checks inferior hands behind
4) in accordance to #3, if he pushes, you are prolly not a favourite to have the best hand.

are likely true, which makes the situation quite complicated.

It comes down to how often he pays off a push and a more precise estimation of how often he pushes an inferior hand.

I am leaning towards push>c/f>c/c, but I am far from certain.

[/ QUOTE ]

Man, this is not obvious to me but I like c/c least too. Depending on the way the game is going etc I think I prefer pushing and hoping for an herioc call to c/f. You'd like him to have KQ I guess, but maybe c/f is best. Not sure.

Re: bullets vs cts, river action?
 

Krantz what are you putting cts on? If his title is accurate, I don't think cts has a king vs. TAG stats and a nitty player. Only thing we might beat is a float that picked up a diamond draw.

Re: bullets vs cts, river action?
 

cts plays 2/4 now? cooler?

Re: bullets vs cts, river action?
 

[ QUOTE ]
Krantz what are you putting cts on? If his title is accurate, I don't think cts has a king vs. TAG stats and a nitty player. Only thing we might beat is a float that picked up a diamond draw.

[/ QUOTE ]

absolutely no clue what he has, i never play with him. from what i gather he can have anything. i guess with respect to the board he should have Kx or yeah, some small piece that picked up a diamond float. thing is he won't call a push with Kx from a nit but he may very well decide to push a nit off Kx or better, repping hearts. if my thinking is correct i would c/c a flush against him, too (with OP's image).

Re: bullets vs cts, river action?
 

[ QUOTE ]
if your title is any indication of how he views you, i would check/call.

if you were very aggressive and always fighting for pots, then i'd be pushing

[/ QUOTE ]

Ding ding ding.

Don't ever fold aces in this spot to cts. He's sick enough to have a set here sometimes, but please don't do it - I don't think he's calling two streets with a naked flush draw.

Re: bullets vs cts, river action?
 

you don't think this is pair+ draw on the turn very often? Or combo draw? I dunno, if his hands are K's and hands that now beat us, I'd be likely to check/fold. Unless you're really nitty and you think he might bluff a K once we check, but now seriously most of his range is ahead anyways or checking behind, so I like a c/f.

Re: bullets vs cts, river action?
 

[ QUOTE ]
if your title is any indication of how he views you, i would check/call.

if you were very aggressive and always fighting for pots, then i'd be pushing

[/ QUOTE ]

Thanks for this post.

Re: bullets vs cts, river action?
 

Yeah I honestly think on the turn cts has a combo draw way more often then anything else.

Re: bullets vs cts, river action?
 

[ QUOTE ]
cts plays 2/4 now? cooler?

[/ QUOTE ]
I play lots of stuff.

Re: bullets vs cts, river action?
 

Also I dunno if jkkk's title is a joke or something but at the table's he's not that nitty.

Re: bullets vs cts, river action?
 

I haven't played with jkkk in a long time, but when I did he was something ridiculous like 13/10

Re: bullets vs cts, river action?
 

hello kqdd.

Re: bullets vs cts, river action?
 

def check that river

Re: bullets vs cts, river action?
 

CTS likes to float no, so then why the [censored] are you betting the turn. Stack sizes are perfect for a CR allin.

Re: bullets vs cts, river action?
 

I check river 100% of the time and cc or cf prob somewhere 50/50ish. Very gameflow/read dependant. Prob more check fold than check call, but I don't think it is definitive.

Re: bullets vs cts, river action?
 

I think your turn bet size combined with the way we were playing made it pretty transparent you had at least AK. Since you are in fact not much stronger than AK, and it would be unwise for me to try to bluff someone off of the nuts (AK), I think you should check/fold the river.

Re: bullets vs cts, river action?
 

Check turn all day.

c/f river.

Re: bullets vs cts, river action?
 

[ QUOTE ]
Check turn all day.

c/f river.

[/ QUOTE ]

....

Could I get the reasoning for either one of these? I assume you are going for a turn c/r?

And then what changes that into a fold on the river? The heart? Because cole peels twice with hearts?

Re: bullets vs cts, river action?
 

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Check turn all day.

c/f river.

[/ QUOTE ]

Could I get the reasoning for either one of these? I assume you are going for a turn c/r?

[/ QUOTE ]

Yes, betting is awkward--he has to fold worse hands except for combo draws.

[ QUOTE ]
And then what changes that into a fold on the river? The heart? Because cole peels twice with hearts?

[/ QUOTE ]

Name some hands we beat? KdXd etc? There is a big diff. between calling flop and calling flop/turn.

Re: bullets vs cts, river action?
 

[ QUOTE ]
hello kqdd.

[/ QUOTE ]

my thought exaaaaaaaaaaactly and I KJdd is the only other thing it might be. or KT of diamonds i guess... or MAAAAAAAAAAAAybe QJ/JT of diamonds. OK, thats all I can think of. like other said, I dont' see him playing so call call call straightforward with the heart flush draw unless he picked up a straight draw on the turn (or maybe a pair? but T9hh is impossible, so maybe 89hh). bottom line is that imo thats the only thing that is plausible and it seems he would have found a raise on an earlier street with a set or whatever.

but yo i wouldn';t fold here. the optimal line is prob check clal here vs cts, and the optimal line would prob be to push vs me cause i'm a calling station.

Re: bullets vs cts, river action?
 

JhTh, QhJh, 8h7h, Th8h

vs.

KdQd, KdJd

I realise we don't have to win 50% here but I don't know that you can assume cts shoves a king here 100% of the time.

And depending on cts AhTh is possible.

Re: bullets vs cts, river action?
 

Okay you [censored] seriously need to change this silly Free Dan Bright avatar 'cause I can't tell who the [censored] is talking.

Requin I think your analysis is spot on - don't forget that cts is capable of turning hands he was calling with for value into bluffs on the river.

Re: bullets vs cts, river action?
 

[ QUOTE ]
Check turn all day.

[/ QUOTE ] Eh, am I reading this right?

[ QUOTE ]
Yes, betting is awkward--he has to fold worse hands except for combo draws.

[/ QUOTE ]

This is not a reason enough not to bet. Do you see why?

Re: bullets vs cts, river action?
 

[ QUOTE ]
don't forget that cts is capable of turning hands he was calling with for value into bluffs on the river.

[/ QUOTE ]

I think this is very important to consider espec vs someone as good as him

Re: bullets vs cts, river action?
 

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Check turn all day.

[/ QUOTE ] Eh, am I reading this right?

[ QUOTE ]
Yes, betting is awkward--he has to fold worse hands except for combo draws.

[/ QUOTE ]

This is not a reason enough not to bet. Do you see why?

[/ QUOTE ]

Because you want to charge draws, so protection is a concern as well as value? I thought it would be implicit in my statement that I like c/r all in that we can expect a bet some% from worse hands and draws.

Re: bullets vs cts, river action?
 

[ QUOTE ]
Okay you [censored] seriously need to change this silly Free Dan Bright avatar 'cause I can't tell who the [censored] is talking.

Requin I think your analysis is spot on - don't forget that cts is capable of turning hands he was calling with for value into bluffs on the river.

[/ QUOTE ]

I don't think he'd do that here with a king.

Re: bullets vs cts, river action?
 

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Okay you [censored] seriously need to change this silly Free Dan Bright avatar 'cause I can't tell who the [censored] is talking.

Requin I think your analysis is spot on - don't forget that cts is capable of turning hands he was calling with for value into bluffs on the river.

[/ QUOTE ]

I don't think he'd do that here with a king.

[/ QUOTE ]

as i said before i think he might a fair amount with a K maybe 30%, almost def. with Txdd... but that' still a small part of his range and i still think a c/f is appropriate

Re: bullets vs cts, river action?
 

You guys don't think bluffing a king is an all-or-nothing thing? Either cts bluffs it 100%, or not at all imo. Either that or he bluffs KJ but not KQ.

Re: bullets vs cts, river action?
 

this hand is v weird... i would have gone for the stack a donk on the turn if i was op. cts prob float on those flops a decent amount of times and figures that op can't check a strong hand to him the turn on a draw heavy board, therefore would prob bet a lot of hands on the turn that AA beats, and i can beat him into the pot and laugh to the bank

Re: bullets vs cts, river action?
 

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
if your title is any indication of how he views you, i would check/call.

if you were very aggressive and always fighting for pots, then i'd be pushing

[/ QUOTE ]

Ding ding ding.

Don't ever fold aces in this spot to cts. He's sick enough to have a set here sometimes, but please don't do it - I don't think he's calling two streets with a naked flush draw.

[/ QUOTE ]

I think this describes more or less what I was thinking before I made my decision, we were playing quite aggressively taking down pots postflop before this hand came up so I doubt he views me as a nit, but I don't think he views me as LAG either. I think AK/KQ are definitely within his range here, I really doubt hes calling the turn w/ a set or two pair, so its between a combo draw that has just got there or some TPTK/TPGK. I decided it was between pushing or c/c'ing as I was not folding so I chose to push as it was more likely he would make a crying call w/ top pair then he would push a lesser hand, maybe I am wrong in that assumption.

He called with T8[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img].

Re: bullets vs cts, river action?
 

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
if your title is any indication of how he views you, i would check/call.

if you were very aggressive and always fighting for pots, then i'd be pushing

[/ QUOTE ]

Ding ding ding.

Don't ever fold aces in this spot to cts. He's sick enough to have a set here sometimes, but please don't do it - I don't think he's calling two streets with a naked flush draw.

[/ QUOTE ]

I think this describes more or less what I was thinking before I made my decision, we were playing quite aggressively taking down pots postflop before this hand came up so I doubt he views me as a nit, but I don't think he views me as LAG either. I think AK/KQ are definitely within his range here, I really doubt hes calling the turn w/ a set or two pair, so its between a combo draw that has just got there or some TPTK/TPGK. I decided it was between pushing or c/c'ing as I was not folding so I chose to push as it was more likely he would make a crying call w/ top pair then he would push a lesser hand, maybe I am wrong in that assumption.

He called with T8[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img].

[/ QUOTE ]

dude, all of your logic in this post, specifically you thought you were beat or he would not push a worse hand, suggest check/folding!