50NL, Time for a Big Bluff???
 

villain is 13/6/0 over 100 hands

Who pulls the trigger and pushes turn??

PokerStars No-Limit Hold'em, $0.50 BB (5 handed) Hand History Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com (Format: 2+2 Forums)

MP ($29.65)
Hero ($50.95)
SB ($23.35)
BB ($110.30)
UTG ($46.75)

Preflop: Hero is Button with T[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], A[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img].
<font color="#666666">1 fold</font>, MP calls $0.50, Hero calls $0.50, SB completes, <font color="#CC3333">BB raises to $2.5</font>, MP calls $2, Hero calls $2, SB folds.

Flop: ($8) 2[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], J[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], T[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(3 players)</font>
<font color="#CC3333">BB bets $5</font>, MP folds, Hero calls $5.

Turn: ($18) J[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
<font color="#CC3333">BB bets $8</font>, Hero ????

All I could think was that he had aa/kk/qq and would fold to a push given his tight play so far. BTW I also felt like I played this entire hand poorly.

Re: 50NL, Time for a Big Bluff???
 

I don't like it. What hand are you trying to represent?

Re: 50NL, Time for a Big Bluff???
 

He could represent anything that beats QQ, KK or AA given preflop action. Wouldn't you put in a raise here if you had Jx, TT or 22?

I think I like it, though I hardly ever actually try this myself.

edit: I don't think I'd push though. Making a smaller raise is more credible and allows you to fold if he decides you're full of it and pushes.

Re: 50NL, Time for a Big Bluff???
 

how does he have 0 aggression factor over 100 hands?

btw, I'm not a fan of a push. he has the jack here A LOT I think.

Re: 50NL, Time for a Big Bluff???
 

-Well, I'd like to represent the Jack.
-His aggression factor over 100 hands was the infinity sign (=0??)
-I don't really think he is the type to raise in the blinds after a bunch of limpers with AJ, KJ, or QJ.
-I don't think he would double barrel AK after the J pairs.
-I really think he has AA/KK/QQ (maybe JJ/TT).
-He'd have a hard time calling all-in without a J.
-I *almost* raised all in on the turn, but wussed out and folded, and kinda regret it.

Re: 50NL, Time for a Big Bluff???
 

If he's AF is infinite, What about a KQ ? May be he's semi bluffing an oesd, i would raise here about 20$.

Raise preflop Btw

Re: 50NL, Time for a Big Bluff???
 

Given the action and your reads, he's most likely got a scared overpair, and I'm not convinced he's folding to a raise...even if his turn bet is uber weak.

Re: 50NL, Time for a Big Bluff???
 

[ QUOTE ]
Raise preflop Btw

[/ QUOTE ]
I usually do, can't say why I didnt in this case, but it sure would have made villain's hand more defined.

Re: 50NL, Time for a Big Bluff???
 

[ QUOTE ]
He could represent anything that beats QQ, KK or AA given preflop action. Wouldn't you put in a raise here if you had Jx, TT or 22?

I think I like it, though I hardly ever actually try this myself.

edit: I don't think I'd push though. Making a smaller raise is more credible and allows you to fold if he decides you're full of it and pushes.

[/ QUOTE ]

I think there's a problem with representing a J here. If he truly had a J, would he not have raised on the flop? A push here would look very suspect. When you bluff, you need to tell a story and the story has to be consistent. In this case the story won't be consistent. I like the idea of using a paired board to psuh someone off a hand, but not when that pair is top pair on the flop and you didn't bet like you had it there.

Re: 50NL, Time for a Big Bluff???
 

[ QUOTE ]
When you bluff, you need to tell a story and the story has to be consistent.

[/ QUOTE ]

agree 100% (prob why i folded)

Re: 50NL, Time for a Big Bluff???
 

[ QUOTE ]
I think there's a problem with representing a J here. If he truly had a J, would he not have raised on the flop? A push here would look very suspect. When you bluff, you need to tell a story and the story has to be consistent. In this case the story won't be consistent. I like the idea of using a paired board to psuh someone off a hand, but not when that pair is top pair on the flop and you didn't bet like you had it there.

[/ QUOTE ]

I'm not sure I agree with you here. Let's suppose the turn is the 2[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] or the T[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]. Let's also assume, for convenience, that villain bets $8 on the turn.

One thing that hasn't been mentioned yet is how Hero has been perceived at the table. Let's consider two scenarios.

Scenario 1: Hero has been playing tight.

It's difficult to represent the 2 or T if Hero has also been playing tight, because a lone 2 or T isn't likely to call the flop bet. Furthermore, Hero's credibility for holding a set decreases, since the only likely set that agrees with "the story" so far is 22. This is the only likely hand Hero can have if he is playing his tight game. Villain may decide to go with the odds Hero doesn't have 22 and call with AA/KK/QQ.

Scenario 2: Hero has been playing loose.

If it is the case that Hero has been calling with middle or bottom pair, then villain might get cautious and fear that Hero has improved to a better hand. But villain (hypothetically) bet the turn - granted it's only 1/2 pot, it's still a big bet. This would seem to imply that villain is not afraid of Hero holding trips, and contradict that Hero has been playing loose.

Re: 50NL, Time for a Big Bluff???
 

It's just the opposite, it's the perfect time for Villain to stack a donk! Be happy that You folded this one. I use similiar bets like Villain to stack donks and it works a lot. Someone like You thinking he can run over me with an all-in - yeah, that's what I'm waiting for here. Especially, if I played a little passive early in a session.

Re: 50NL, Time for a Big Bluff???
 

If you are villain, are you insta-calling with aa/kk/qq? If you are than this could be a problem in the long run.

Re: 50NL, Time for a Big Bluff???
 

I raise PF, don't like the limp/call line much. Raising this turn is okay, you SHOULD have decent FE vs. most hands not including a J. His bets look semi weak too. Though he is quite passive, so I'm not sure.

Re: 50NL, Time for a Big Bluff???
 

0 aggression factor over 100 hands?
I would not call the flop.
On the turn the bluff is ok. But all bluffs, especially at these levels, require some read.