General Gambling Questions For Me
 

This includes poker questions that aren't about a specific strategy and general probability questions.

Re: General Gambling Questions For Me
 

Discuss the positional advantage in the game of Post, as well as where your edge comes from.

The rules are as follows:

Every player antes $1. The action starts with the player left of the dealer. The dealer deals out two cards. If the first card is an A, the player may choose whether it acts as a high card or low card. The player must wager anywhere from $1 to the size of the pot that the next card off the deck will be between the two initial cards (if the cards are equal or connected, there will be a redeal). The player is paid even money if the card is in fact in the middle. If the card is outside the range, the player's wager is added to the pot. If the card is equal to either of the cards, then the player must forfeit double his wager to the pot. The game ends when one player takes the entire pot.

Re: General Gambling Questions For Me
 

You are a contestant on a high stakes version of Deal or No Deal. There are two cases left: $.01 and 1 billion dollars. What is the lowest deal you would accept? Assume that there is no trickery and your probability of picking the 1 billion dollar case is actually 50%

Re: General Gambling Questions For Me
 

I think this one is as much about your initial financial security as it is about gambling theory.

For example, Bill Gates would presumably go No Deal and try for teh $1,000,000,000 whereas a 100% chance of $1,000,000 would be too much for most ordinary people to even consider risking a gamble on.

Re: General Gambling Questions For Me
 

1) If a gambler spent the necessary time to become a very good handicapper in one or more sports, as in basically full time, BUT did not also throughout the day constantly monitor the opening lines or movements in same either online or in a B&M sportsbook, could he still beat sports? That is, if he got up late, checked the lines only twice a day and either bet them or not at those limited times, would that be sufficient?

2) What general type of heuristic do even excellent professional handicappers make insufficient use of?

Re: General Gambling Questions For Me
 

You said once that you are "surprisingly strong" and I assumed this was in reference to your physical strength and not your strategy for tic tac toe.

This kind of "surprising" physical strength ever provided you with some kind of edge in the game of poker? It's a general question so the edge could come from any aspect of the game. (Ignore the obvious ones, such as extra stamina.)

Mickey Brausch

Re: General Gambling Questions For Me
 

Not that I can think of.

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What % of people who become successful full time gamblers would of been happier (overall) going into a mildly boring job for less money? Would you?

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Can the Horses be beaten? If so how? Have you beaten them? If so, by how much in relation to your poker winnings?

PairTheBoard

Re: General Gambling Questions For Me
 

David,

What criteria must one meet to be considered an expert handicapper for the NFL? Is betting 5 games a week each season and winning 65% of all selections sufficient? And would this calibur of a handicapper gain EV if he chose to include higher-payout parlays into his plays? More specifically, would the steady performance of his straight bets make the losses accounted for in the parlays okay? Assume he were making 5 straight bet each week, then wagering on 6 games for his parlay with payout odds of 47.41/1. After five years of using this sytem how much more can he expect to average a season betting $400 each straight bet & parlay?

Dem

Re: General Gambling Questions For Me
 

Have you ever discovered an instance where you had been cheated, and how did you deal with it?

What was your worst downswing?

Have you ever suffered from poker burnout?

What poker variation will supplant no limit hold 'em as the most popular version of poker, and when do you think it will happen?

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Nevermind

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I readed that rob hollink beated casino games over the years, is this possible?

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Could you beat Vegas sportsbooks for $100K a year?

Do you have an opinion on the small percentage of "respected" touts SSB, Fez, etc?

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I came across a formula in one of your books to calculate the luck vs skill factor based on the length of the blinds, blind structure, starting stack size .. etc. I really need to find that formula but cant! I blame you for writing so many books [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]

I would appreciate it if you could post that information in this forum.

Re: General Gambling Questions For Me
 

In a 6 handed game of royal hold'em (stripped deck so only 10s,Js,Qs,Ks and As are used) what would be your starting hand requirements to:
a) limp from the SB
b) limp from a non-blind bet position
c) open with a raise from any position
d) call a raise from any position

without at this point taking into consideration any observations you may have made on your opponents' play?

Re: General Gambling Questions For Me
 

Why haven't any well-capitalized Vegas sportsbooks taken the business model of Pinnacle Sports (possibly the most successful online book) and actively sought out profitable positions on games instead of just seeking out balanced action? It seems like a local book could even get away with dealing -105 or -107 if they had a competent manager and far-sighted investors, as their market share would increase substantially.

For example, 90% of Vegas books are offering an NFL Monday Night favorite at -3 -120 all week. Most of the public money is coming in on the favorite. The sharp local book has a big opinion on the +3 dog at +100. This book could clearly deal -3 -110 or even -3.5 +110 and increase their volume significantly over competing books while still maintaining a very sharp position on the game. It's absolutely mind boggling that no Vegas books attempt this, in a town full of the squarest bettors imaginable. I suspect they'd hold about 5-8% more on the year by taking this route.

Re: General Gambling Questions For Me
 

DCJ311, one word: volume. Pinnacle has the ability to attract a large number of volume, something most books only dream of.

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will you ever answer the questions in this thread?

Re: General Gambling Questions For Me
 

A friend makes a bet with you in which you pick a number between 1 and 16, and you roll a 16 sided die where you win if the die lands on the number you chose. Your friend gives you odds in which you've got a positive expectation over the long term, but win or lose you'll never be offered this bet again.

Is this a good bet for you to take? Assume you can afford to lose the bet, but that money matters to you. If you do take the bet what are your minimum payout odds?

Re: General Gambling Questions For Me
 

What are your thoughts on the ethics of playing a zero-sum game for a living?

Re: General Gambling Questions For Me
 

[ QUOTE ]
What are your thoughts on the ethics of playing a zero-sum game for a living?

[/ QUOTE ]

KUJ,

As we both along with David post in SMP regularly about religious issues, here is an old thread on this issue regarding christianity and gambling where I discuss it.

Note further that being a pro poker player is providing entertainment to non-pros, and with the caveats I gave in that thread (no hustling degenerates or cheating), is just as acceptable as being in other entertainment jobs, where such entertainment is just another form of leisure time activity. Furthermore, those in the retail and credit industries who promote compulsive credit-driven shopping have far greater ethincal issues than any *honest* professional gambler could possibly have.

Re: General Gambling Questions For Me
 

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Note further that being a pro poker player is providing entertainment to non-pros

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i've always thought this was a stupid rationalization. you aren't providing any service, the casino is. whether or not there were professionals in the games, the games would exist. in fact, the recreational players would rather there were no professionals since the professionals just make the games tougher and cost the recreational players money. there may be a few recreational players who enjoy the challenge and don't mind if their ev is reduced by a pro's presence, but certainly this type of player is the minority. so you're not providing a service, you are actually hurting the service provided by the casino.

note: i have nothing against professional gamblers.

Re: General Gambling Questions For Me
 

David,

Have you seen the new Vegas table game Hold'em Bonus? Here are the rules if you haven't.

http://wizardofodds.com/texasholdembonus

In this game, players are not discouraged from sharing their hole cards, from what I can see. Sometimes, they are encouraged by the dealer. In your estimation, how many players (six max at a table I think) would have to be actively sharing their cards in order to swing the odds in their favor?

ScottieK

Re: General Gambling Questions For Me
 

dr/ sklansky,

can you tell me what your answer was to the KJs in the cutoff hand you posted in high stakes several months ago? it was where you were getting something like 15 to 1 on a Q high flop. i argued fold and everyone else said call. who was right?

mike l.

Re: General Gambling Questions For Me
 

Do you have better Edge odds in NL poker or in Limit Poker??

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[ QUOTE ]
David,

What criteria must one meet to be considered an expert handicapper for the NFL? Is betting 5 games a week each season and winning 65% of all selections sufficient? And would this calibur of a handicapper gain EV if he chose to include higher-payout parlays into his plays? More specifically, would the steady performance of his straight bets make the losses accounted for in the parlays okay? Assume he were making 5 straight bet each week, then wagering on 6 games for his parlay with payout odds of 47.41/1. After five years of using this sytem how much more can he expect to average a season betting $400 each straight bet & parlay?

Dem

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This is a great question. Do mind reposting it in the sports forum and I'll take a crack at it for you. Generally speaking pro handicappers hit anywhere from 55% to 60% and since you are only playing 5 picks a week you will have to expect your deviation to be quite high until you have played quite a few years. Also I have a question on why your payout for the 6 team parlay would be that exact payout each time? Are you betting with a local?

Re: General Gambling Questions For Me
 

[ QUOTE ]
Can the Horses be beaten?

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Judging by many of the posts on this board, the DEAD ONES surely can!
[img]/images/graemlins/wink.gif[/img] [img]/images/graemlins/wink.gif[/img]

Re: General Gambling Questions For Me
 

[ QUOTE ]
David,

Have you seen the new Vegas table game Hold'em Bonus? Here are the rules if you haven't.

http://wizardofodds.com/texasholdembonus

In this game, players are not discouraged from sharing their hole cards, from what I can see. Sometimes, they are encouraged by the dealer. In your estimation, how many players (six max at a table I think) would have to be actively sharing their cards in order to swing the odds in their favor?

ScottieK

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I was going to ask this same question. Where I have played it, (Binions and I think Mirage?) the floor discouraged sharing of hole cards, but the dealers never enforced it. Also, new dealers would misread the board occasionally and pay out after a loss. The game really feels beatable, given these conditions.

Re: General Gambling Questions For Me
 

DS, Do you have pre-game routine? If so, what is it and what do you think about while doing it?

Re: General Gambling Questions For Me
 

Just quick pointing something out. A while ago, you posted a scenario where you played $1/2 HU with trillion dollar stacks or something like that, and your opponent pushed every hand and turned his hand over. It was concluded you should wait for KK v. K2o before calling, under the premise that we should wait for the highest EV situation.

I decided it's better for you to wait for 77 v. 72o (with the 2's suit covered, obviously), since the risk of ruin is at it's lowest at that point. Most of 72's EV comes from chops in this scenario.

Do I get some sort of reward for that?

Re: General Gambling Questions For Me
 

I posted this question elsewhere (twice, sorry for the mistake) but found this is a better thread to post it.

How do you measure the incomplete to revealed information ratio required for a poker game to maximize the importance of skill and interaction over pre calculated math applied to every scenario?
Also, does the structure of the game (IE betting rounds, betting structure, how likely is a nut hand, etc) influence this calculation, other than because of the direct implications it has on this very ratio?

Re: General Gambling Questions For Me
 

None of the questions are turning me on. I'm not sure why.

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[ QUOTE ]
None of the questions are turning me on. I'm not sure why.

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Okay, I'll give it a shot. What are the top five best bets to make right now? Here are the criteria:

1. you're top 5 have to be something that someone would conceivably give action on. In other words, a great bet is not, "i'll bet you $50 the sun will come up in the east tomorrow." However, "I bet I could beat you in a game of tic tac toe (cat wins is a push)" could potentially (although unlikely) be a good bet if you could find someone stupid enough to take it (I just use this example because I made money on tic tac toe in high school.).

2. The max wager is $500. This rules out some sure thing gambles like buying 20 million barrels of oil hoping the price might go up in the next 10 years.

Modify criteria as you see fit but stick your neck out and give us a few high percentage plays....actually now that I think about it, doing this might be a bit too risky for you. Maybe you could ask others their top five and then critique them as you see fit. This would undoubtedly be instructive.

Re: General Gambling Questions For Me
 

Quote:
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None of the questions are turning me on. I'm not sure why.
________________________________________


Okay, I'll give it a shot. What are the top five best bets to make right now? Here are the criteria:

1. you're top 5 have to be something that someone would conceivably give action on. In other words, a great bet is not, "i'll bet you $50 the sun will come up in the east tomorrow." However, "I bet I could beat you in a game of tic tac toe (cat wins is a push)" could potentially (although unlikely) be a good bet if you could find someone stupid enough to take it (I just use this example because I made money on tic tac toe in high school.).

2. The max wager is $500. This rules out some sure thing gambles like buying 20 million barrels of oil hoping the price might go up in the next 10 years.

Modify criteria as you see fit but stick your neck out and give us a few high percentage plays....actually now that I think about it, doing this might be a bit too risky for you. Maybe you could ask others their top five and then critique them as you see fit. This would undoubtedly be instructive.

Re: General Gambling Questions For Me
 

There is no such bet for me because others won't fade me. There is one great bet for others which I will reveal after I milk it through a "beard".

Hint. It involves a specific poker situation.

Re: General Gambling Questions For Me
 

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There is no such bet for me because others won't fade me. There is one great bet for others which I will reveal after I milk it through a "beard".

Hint. It involves a specific poker situation.

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I'm completely confused.

Re: General Gambling Questions For Me
 

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I will reveal after I milk it through a "beard".

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I thought you said you weren't turned on.

Re: General Gambling Questions For Me
 

will you play a live hu limit freezeout against me or some other posters? white chip of course.

Re: General Gambling Questions For Me
 

Obviously 5 to maximize EV. Or all-1