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-   -   Is It Chasing Or Solid Poker? (http://archives1.twoplustwo.com/showthread.php?t=269435)

James Tabbah 11-27-2006 06:51 PM

Is It Chasing Or Solid Poker?
 
Here's the sitiuation you hold two hearts in your hand and you know the guy your going heads up with has a high pair. The flop comes you hit two more hearts your hand is still not made but if it hits you will win no doubt about it he bets do you call and if so do you follow through to the end no matter what he bets? Question simplified is it smart poker to be willing to risk it all on the last heart knowing that if it hits you will win? [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]

aal113086 11-27-2006 07:06 PM

Re: Is It Chasing Or Solid Poker?
 
WOW

9LIVES 11-27-2006 07:10 PM

Re: Is It Chasing Or Solid Poker?
 
I just spewed Dr Pepper from my nose. [img]/images/graemlins/crazy.gif[/img]

Jeff_B 11-27-2006 07:13 PM

Re: Is It Chasing Or Solid Poker?
 
i like how the poll tells me I chose too many options with just one checked

argybargy2002 11-27-2006 07:48 PM

Re: Is It Chasing Or Solid Poker?
 
I'm sorry but you are going to have to be a lot more specific than that. It all depends on the size of the pot (pot odds), how much more you think you can make from him if you hit (implied odds) and whether you could get him to lay his hand down with a big bet (folding equity).

The question you have asked has no answer.

argybargy2002 11-27-2006 07:49 PM

Re: Is It Chasing Or Solid Poker?
 
Actually I wonder if its a joke. You can't vote because it says you have chosen too many options. Maybe he knows there is no answer and is taking the mickey.

mug77 11-27-2006 08:24 PM

Re: Is It Chasing Or Solid Poker?
 
[ QUOTE ]
I'm sorry but you are going to have to be a lot more specific than that. It all depends on the size of the pot (pot odds), how much more you think you can make from him if you hit (implied odds) and whether you could get him to lay his hand down with a big bet (folding equity).
The question you have asked has no answer.

[/ QUOTE ]

ok you obviously didn't get that it was supposed to.

argybargy2002 11-27-2006 08:30 PM

Re: Is It Chasing Or Solid Poker?
 
Yeah yeah, but I got it two minutes after that post didn't I. Been awake too long, my sense of humour is not switched on fully.

Eponymous 11-27-2006 10:45 PM

Re: Is It Chasing Or Solid Poker?
 
He might have been serious. He is new to 2+2, so maybe he is also new to poker and doesn't realize pot size, bet size, stack size, etc., are part of the equation. We've all seen enough bad play to know a lot of players don't take any of this information into account.

SheridanCat 11-27-2006 11:01 PM

Re: Is It Chasing Or Solid Poker?
 
For some reason people think this poll/post is a joke. If it is, it's not a very good one.

My guess is, rather, that the poll is misconfigured and the OP didn't understand all the factors that go into making this decision.

To the OP, we need to know more, if you truly want an answer.

<ul type="square">[*]Limit or no-limit hold'em?[*]Preflop and flop betting is what?[*]How large are the stacks, if this is NL?[*]What do you expect to happen on the flop if you miss?[*]Are you certain to get your opponent's stack if you hit?[/list]

jordiepop 11-28-2006 12:24 AM

Re: Is It Chasing Or Solid Poker?
 
VNH

trontron 11-28-2006 01:55 AM

Re: Is It Chasing Or Solid Poker?
 
[ QUOTE ]
VNH

[/ QUOTE ]

QFT

runout_mick 11-28-2006 04:24 PM

Re: Is It Chasing Or Solid Poker?
 
[ QUOTE ]
For some reason people think this poll/post is a joke. If it is, it's not a very good one.

My guess is, rather, that the poll is misconfigured and the OP didn't understand all the factors that go into making this decision.

To the OP, we need to know more, if you truly want an answer.

<ul type="square">[*]Limit or no-limit hold'em?[*]Preflop and flop betting is what?[*]How large are the stacks, if this is NL?[*]What do you expect to happen on the flop if you miss?[*]Are you certain to get your opponent's stack if you hit?[/list]
[/ QUOTE ]

Even more important: are our hearts higher than his pair?

If they are, we have a monster and should be raising as much on the flop (BEFORE the turn, our equity goes way down on a blank turn) as villain will allow.

If they aren't, we need ALL the variables to properly evaluate.




Edit: Note to James T:

Ignore all the posters who responded to your post as if it was a joke. They were blessed with knowing how to play world class poker at birth, while the rest of us must ask questions and study.

I have much more respect for your question than their responses, welcome to 2+2 and don't let these guys discourage you.

argybargy2002 11-29-2006 12:07 AM

Re: Is It Chasing Or Solid Poker?
 
I'm not 100% sure if the post is sreious or not. If it is, hopefully what I'm about to write will help. If it isn't then hopefully someone else may benefit from it. I actually wrote this on Wikibooks a couple of days ago, but I wrote it so I guess its ok to repost it here.

In Texas Holdem it is quite common for someone to flop 4 to a flush. The person should only draw to that flush if to do so would be +EV. In order to calculate the EV it is necessary to compare the size of the bet with the size of the pot. A flopped flush draw will come in approximately 1 in 3 times by the river,k thus in order for a call to be +EV the final pot must be larger than 3 times the call. This is a complicated issue so it may be useful to elaborate with a specific example.

Say you are playing 5-10 limit poker on the button, there are 3 limpers to you and you call with A4 diamonds. Both Blinds call so there is $30 in the pot. You flop the nut flush draw. The player in the small Blind bets $5 and there are four callers. Should you call, raise or fold?

Well, there is now $50 in the pot and it will cost you $5 to call so the pot is giving you 11:1 odds (ie you must pay $5 to win $55). We already know that the flush draw will get there 1 time in every 3 (1:2) so making the call is +EV. However, calling is not necessarily the best play in this situation. If you raise and the other 4 people in the pot decide to call your raise then you will be adding $5 to the pot whilst they will collectively be adding $20. This ratio is 4:1 but the chance of making your flush is only 1:2 so you are making money for every extra bet that goes into the pot. Notice that even though you have only a 33% chance to win the pot, the correct thing to do is actually to bet, despite knowing that you will probably not win.

Notice that all that has been done so far is compare the current pot with the bet size needed to call to calculate EV. However it is important to also compare the expected pot size by the end of the hand with the current bet. For example say you are playing no limit holdem and have a gutshot straight draw (giving you 4 outs to complete - approximately 1:6 against). If the pot is $30 and you are faced with a $10 bet the pot is not giving you the correct odds to call (it would need to be $50). However you also need to take into account the amount of money you may be able to extract from your opponents if you make your hand. If you expect your opponent to call a $100 bet if you make your hand, then the pot is really offering you 13:1 odds (the $30 pot at the time plus the $100 added on later streets) Therefore in this situation the +EV play would be to call. Thus when making decisions about whether to call a bet it is crucial to take into account both the stack sizes of yourself and your opponents and how willing they are likely to be to call big bets if you make your hand.

coolio4433 11-29-2006 04:44 PM

Re: Is It Chasing Or Solid Poker?
 
Pretty good post Argy, but I believe a gutshot is about a 10.5:1 odds to hit on the turn, and remember, if you don't hit it on the turn you'll likely have to pay another bet to make it on the river, so that argument isn't entirely accurate.

argybargy2002 11-29-2006 05:13 PM

Re: Is It Chasing Or Solid Poker?
 
True, I didn't think that part of it through. Still it might give op an idea of why we didn't think much of his question.


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