Need a checkup, KK on sort of ugly flop
 

I find myself in this spot a lot, and I just want a checkup on whether I have a major hole here:

PokerStars No-Limit Hold'em, $1.00 BB (9 handed) Hand History Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com (Format: 2+2 Forums)

saw flop|<font color="#C00000">saw showdown</font>

<font color="#C00000">Hero ($100)</font>
MP3 ($76.55)
CO ($69.70)
Button ($59.50)
SB ($44.10)
BB ($102)
UTG ($89)
<font color="#C00000">UTG+1 ($142.20)</font>
MP1 ($20.25)

Preflop: Hero is MP2 with K[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], K[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img].
<font color="#666666">1 fold</font>, <font color="#CC3333">UTG+1 raises to $4</font>, <font color="#666666">1 fold</font>, <font color="#CC3333">Hero raises to $17</font>, <font color="#666666">5 folds</font>, UTG+1 calls $13.

Flop: ($35.50) 9[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], J[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], 8[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
UTG+1 checks, <font color="#CC3333">Hero bets $26</font>, <font color="#CC3333">UTG+1 raises to $115.5</font>,

So I have about $50 left here, what should I do here? I have no reads on this villain, but I've been in similar situations a fair bit lately, so just imagine the villian is the average stars .5-1NL player maybe.

Re: Need a checkup, KK on sort of ugly flop
 

That's a very hefty raise PF. You'll still be a little deeper preflop if you don't go so heavy there.

Readless, I guess you have to fold. I don't know.

Re: Need a checkup, KK on sort of ugly flop
 

I know, I'm not really sure why I hit it that hard, I think this was a table where everytime I raised smaller, I got 4 callers, and I've had horrible luck with KK in early position lately, so maybe that made me overbet it. I do try to really mix up my raises sometimes regardless, and overbet now and again with either big hands or just stupid hands. I kind of feel like one day someone will notice me overbetting 78 preflop and give me action later, but doesn't happen much at these stakes haha.

Re: Need a checkup, KK on sort of ugly flop
 

instacall

Re: Need a checkup, KK on sort of ugly flop
 

I'm not folding here.

Re: Need a checkup, KK on sort of ugly flop
 

You can't fold, although you are basically hoping he has QQ instead of JJ.

Re: Need a checkup, KK on sort of ugly flop
 

[ QUOTE ]
That's a very hefty raise PF. You'll still be a little deeper preflop if you don't go so heavy there.

Readless, I guess you have to fold. I don't know.

[/ QUOTE ]

[img]/images/graemlins/confused.gif[/img] [img]/images/graemlins/confused.gif[/img] [img]/images/graemlins/confused.gif[/img]
Why would you want to be deeper with an overpair?

Oh, and instacall..

Re: Need a checkup, KK on sort of ugly flop
 

[ QUOTE ]
I know, I'm not really sure why I hit it that hard, I think this was a table where everytime I raised smaller, I got 4 callers, and I've had horrible luck with KK in early position lately, so maybe that made me overbet it. I do try to really mix up my raises sometimes regardless, and overbet now and again with either big hands or just stupid hands. I kind of feel like one day someone will notice me overbetting 78 preflop and give me action later, but doesn't happen much at these stakes haha.

[/ QUOTE ]

Sounds like you know exactly why you bet that big.. and it worked. That was not a problem with this hand..

Re: Need a checkup, KK on sort of ugly flop
 

Your reraise preflop look like perfect to me.

On flop, its not a so easy fold. The pot is pretty big and you only have to win 36% of the time to be Ev+.

The problem is that you dont have a real read on your opponent and without that its very hard to determine where you really stand.

If vilain is tight and a little bit aggresive¸ his likely holding is 88 99 JJ QQ KK AA TT. We lose against about 3/4 of these hands so its a fold.

Against a more loose aggressive opponent its not that clear. I think we could add some hands like combo pair+draw, or flush and straight draws, but we still loosing against a lot of hands and get outdrawed often. A call against a lag look like to be almost ev neutral and maybe a little bit ev+, but I guess its a situation where a call or a fold is ok.

Without read its a fold.

Re: Need a checkup, KK on sort of ugly flop
 

Why would anyone complain that your raise PF was too big? It got called and you had pocket kings.

Re: Need a checkup, KK on sort of ugly flop
 

TT/JT/9T/QQ/instacall.

Re: Need a checkup, KK on sort of ugly flop
 

Very easy call.

Your pf reraise is perfect.

Helps you get AI on the flop

Re: Need a checkup, KK on sort of ugly flop
 

Board: Jc 9c 8h
Dead:

equity (%) win (%) tie (%)
Hand 1: 56.8348 % 56.25% 00.58% { AA, QQ-88, AcQc, J9s+, T9s, 98s, J9o+, T9o, 98o }

Hand 2: 43.1652 % 42.58% 00.58% { KcKd }



We are behind with KK, but its true that with pot odds we could easily call against that range of hands.



A tight opponent will call preflop only with a pocket or AK and maybe AQ:

Board: Jc 9c 8h
Dead:

equity (%) win (%) tie (%)
Hand 1: 60.1654 % 58.05% 02.12% { 88+, AcKc, AcQc }
Hand 2: 39.8346 % 37.72% 02.12% { KcKd }



ok, its close, but the call still ok. We had to win 36% of the time minimum to be ev+ and we have 38% of winning.

Re: Need a checkup, KK on sort of ugly flop
 

Thanks for all the input. I have gotten stacked by these situations a LOT lately (it's always a set the last 4 times), and I just am not sure whether it's variance or what. I think maybe I need better table selection, maybe I am not playing with enough rocks.

I guess it must be at least somewhat variance that everyone keeps hitting sets on me though, as of tonight I am actually DOWN money this month with KK over 17k hands (down 3 buyins with it tonight, 1 of which was this, 2 of which I was waaaay ahead) and this is probably the most questionable spot I ever put it in, it's not like I'm racking off all the time when the flop is AQJ or something. Oh poker.

Re: Need a checkup, KK on sort of ugly flop
 

the only hands we are ahead of here are TT and QQ..with only 50 left you have to call but we need a Q to choop here I think and not the Qc