Live tourny about 4hrs. ago
 

Lake Tahoe $70 no rebuy tournament.
73 players.....1800 in chips.....

Blinds at 400/800.....35 or so remain
I am chip leader of table with 15000 or so. I very well might be CL of tourny at this point. No worse than 3rd atleast.

Little insight....I am dominating table. Everytime I show down, it is a monster. This is allowing me to get away with a lot of positional betting and taking down alot of pots. Average stack at this point is about 4000 or so. On the hand immedietly preceeding this one guy goes all in for 1300. Next guy calls leaving 1500 behind. I push with KK. Everyone folds around to caller who pushes. I win. Them both out.

Now I am in the CO and it is folded to me. I look down and find two red aces. Very sweet. I decide to raise to 1600. I do this because I am trying to represent a steal and a bully. My raises though quite frequent have been garnering alot of respect (from all the good hands I've shown) and I felt that this hand was too strong to just take the blinds. Button folds and SB looks me over.

Read on SB....I have played with this guy many times before. Both in tournaments, and in cash games ranging from 3-6 to 15-30 to the 2/5 no limit they spread. I am very familiar with his play and I have to assume he knows me a little. He is very tight. Doesn't get out of line ever. Plays his good hands strong. Lays down marginals (A9,QJ,etc..)and won't bluff into a raise. Oh and by the way, he has about 11000 so he is other CL at table. Only guy that can hurt me.

Back to the hand. He thinks for a moment and just calls. BB folds. Right away I rule out AA(cause I got em),KK,QQ,and AK. I believe he would reraise with these hands. Remember he bets his strong hands. I have shown strength with my raise and he wouldn't slowplay here with a big hand. Just by calling my raise (mini as it may be) he has to have one of the following I think. PP (less than QQ), AQ,AJ,KQ,KJs,KTs (pushing it),QTs (really pushing it).

Flop comes K Q 4 rainbow. (pot is 4000 for math impaired) He bets 1500 into me! What to do?

If raise, how much? If call or called and turn is T! Now what? What if he continues to bet into you? Fold? Call? Allin?...

Please help break this puzzle. (I asked him after the tiourny what he had and he told me as he neveer showed)

Re: Live tourny about 4hrs. ago
 

Although I don't think my play is the right one - I would prolly call here for a number of reasons. Kinda tired to explain but if u want me to just ask... hope it worked out : )

Re: Live tourny about 4hrs. ago
 

Raise to 5000 and push the turn. You are not getting away from this or slow playing it.

Re: Live tourny about 4hrs. ago
 

Why can't I get away from this?

Re: Live tourny about 4hrs. ago
 

[ QUOTE ]
Why can't I get away from this?

[/ QUOTE ]

I am sure that villain had KQ or 44, but you couldn't know that. You also have outs versus 2-pair. The money is not deep enought to fold AA postflop in this situation.

Re: Live tourny about 4hrs. ago
 

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Why can't I get away from this?

[/ QUOTE ]

I am sure that villain had KQ or 44, but you couldn't know that. You also have outs versus 2-pair. The money is not deep enought to fold AA postflop in this situation.

[/ QUOTE ]

First off, you just said there is a good chance he has me dominated with top two or a set. So why wouldn't I dump if I know he's ahead. Or atleast call and try to keep the pot to a minimum

Secondly, what do you mean the money isn't deep enough? If the pot gats any larger, than I might feel compelled to call because it has grown to a point where I can't lay my hand down. Plus I have a huge stack in relation to the field AND have been dominating them.. Why not continue on my merry way. Plus the bettor has a ton of chips and this could get quite messy as the pot grows and the cards turn. Plus he is betting into me. Warning signals right off the bat. Plus What if the turn card is a ten? Now there is three to a straight and many combinations of twopair that fit my opponents range.

I think I can get away from this.

Re: Live tourny about 4hrs. ago
 

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Why can't I get away from this?

[/ QUOTE ]

I am sure that villain had KQ or 44, but you couldn't know that. You also have outs versus 2-pair. The money is not deep enought to fold AA postflop in this situation.

[/ QUOTE ]

First off, you just said there is a good chance he has me dominated with top two or a set. So why wouldn't I dump if I know he's ahead. Or atleast call and try to keep the pot to a minimum

Secondly, what do you mean the money isn't deep enough? If the pot gats any larger, than I might feel compelled to call because it has grown to a point where I can't lay my hand down. Plus I have a huge stack in relation to the field AND have been dominating them.. Why not continue on my merry way. Plus the bettor has a ton of chips and this could get quite messy as the pot grows and the cards turn. Plus he is betting into me. Warning signals right off the bat. Plus What if the turn card is a ten? Now there is three to a straight and many combinations of twopair that fit my opponents range.

I think I can get away from this.

[/ QUOTE ]

I know that he is ahead from the fact that you posted it, the way you presented it, and your asking why you can't get away from it.

I'm sorry you lost the hand. The lead into the raiser could be a big hand, but you can't fold overpairs to probe bets.

With deep money, you could call all the way with an over pair. Here, if villain has you beat, he will get allin eventually. You can't let him draw out if you are ahead.

Don't worry about this hand. This happens.

Re: Live tourny about 4hrs. ago
 

One thing to add. I dont like the min raise PF at all. Why? Trying to even represent a steal attempt with a min raise is giving someone odds to call with marginal holdings. If you just raise the standard 3x to 5x, leaning more to 5x to truly represent a steal, IMO, then someone with KQ or JT might try to play back at you. To me a min raise is just and advanced form of slowplaying, thus allowing marginal hands to catch up. From the way it looks though, guessing you got outdrawn, it happens.

Re: Live tourny about 4hrs. ago
 

In my opinion, your minimum raise to 1600 preflop is your biggest flaw here. By raising only the minimum, you are giving the SB 2.33-1 on his money to just call. And then if he calls, the BB would be getting 5-1 for his call. Not to mention, there are some very juicy implied odds because of the chips to have.

IMO, you are giving both blinds a great opportunity to call here with very marginal hands and draw out on you. KQ is very likely here, as is 44. I'm not sure as to whether the SB is the type of player to slowplay a set on a raindow flop or top two. He could have a hand like AK, KJ and be leading out with a bet about 1/3 the pot to see where he is at in the hand. If you come over the top here, he may easily fold. I don't think calling is an option here. I believe you should either raise to 5000 or fold. If you raise to 5000, you're opponent should fold if he has a hand weaker than a KQ or 44. If he just calls, you can see what plays out on the turn. If he comes back over the top of you, you can dump the hand and leave yourself with 8400 in chips. That wouldn't seem too bad as you said you were pretty much running over the table.

Let us know what happened and how things played out.

Re: Live tourny about 4hrs. ago
 

[ QUOTE ]
In my opinion, your minimum raise to 1600 preflop is your biggest flaw here. By raising only the minimum, you are giving the SB 2.33-1 on his money to just call. And then if he calls, the BB would be getting 5-1 for his call. Not to mention, there are some very juicy implied odds because of the chips to have.

IMO, you are giving both blinds a great opportunity to call here with very marginal hands and draw out on you. KQ is very likely here, as is 44. I'm not sure as to whether the SB is the type of player to slowplay a set on a raindow flop or top two. He could have a hand like AK, KJ and be leading out with a bet about 1/3 the pot to see where he is at in the hand. If you come over the top here, he may easily fold. I don't think calling is an option here. I believe you should either raise to 5000 or fold. If you raise to 5000, you're opponent should fold if he has a hand weaker than a KQ or 44. If he just calls, you can see what plays out on the turn. If he comes back over the top of you, you can dump the hand and leave yourself with 8400 in chips. That wouldn't seem too bad as you said you were pretty much running over the table.

Let us know what happened and how things played out.

[/ QUOTE ]

Hero had AA. He wanted to be called. If he had JJ, then I would say the miniraise was a mistake. Here you want marginal hands to call you. You don't want to pick up the blinds. Since hero is an agressive big stack, the miniraise could look like a cheap steal attempt rather than a monster. Sometimes people will call and outdraw you. Other times they will call and make top pair and bust out. Miniraising with AA is kind of standard. I don't play that way, but I don't know if it was bad.

Re: Live tourny about 4hrs. ago
 

How is minraising with AA standard? All you do is give marginal drawing hands a cheap flop and these are the best hands to crack AA. If you just make the standard raise for the table then it will appear to be a steal but at the same time will not give your hand away. Just by betting each hand you have the same way limits your opponents ability to read you. Sure you want to mix it up, but this is mixing it up, if you open raise every hand the same then suddenly 65o and AA will appear the same, thus disguising your hand and misleading your opponents.

Re: Live tourny about 4hrs. ago
 

Reraise to 4k-5k sounds good to me, folding is not an option at this point, IMO. Burn and turn if villian bets into you again if a scare card hits then re-access. I agree that the pf raise should have been more, minimum is inviting trouble.

Re: Live tourny about 4hrs. ago
 

Your goal when playing AA is not to get a pre-flop call no matter how small, it is to get as much money in the pot as possible, especially pre-flop. The ideal situation is getting re-raised, not called. If Villain is a decent player, then he should know that if you make a real bet, he needs to re-raise or fold. Even with AA, you are better off having him fold than seeing a cheap flop when he holds a lot of speculative hands that he will not take past the flop unless he improves to better than one pair. You want action from a hand like KQ, but that can call or re-raise a standard raise. Villain might fold 86s to a standard raise, but that is preferable to showing him a cheap flop.

What really, really does not make sense is showing Villain a cheap flop and then immediately looking for excuses to slow down or fold with AA. You let him take a flop because you wanted to play a big pot with him. What did you expect him to do when he got a piece, check-call you all the way? Now that he's shown some interest, you have to build the pot. You have to raise his lead and call a push. There is no folding here.

Re: Live tourny about 4hrs. ago
 

[ QUOTE ]

(skip)
I decide to raise to 1600. I do this because I am trying to represent a steal and a bully.

(skip)
I have shown strength with my raise

[/ QUOTE ]

You're trying to have it both ways, representing a steal and showing strength at the same time. I don't like minraising with AA, FWIW. I also think he could call with AK there, not wanting to inflate the pot out of position against a raiser.

Re: Live tourny about 4hrs. ago
 

[ QUOTE ]

Now I am in the CO and it is folded to me. I look down and find two red aces. Very sweet. I decide to raise to 1600. I do this because I am trying to represent a steal and a bully.

[/ QUOTE ]

how is a minraise representing a steal and a bully?

so you folded to his bet. you don't think he could possibly have had a middle pair or even just top pair? he bets 1500 into a 4000 pot, RAISE him.

Re: Live tourny about 4hrs. ago
 

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]

Now I am in the CO and it is folded to me. I look down and find two red aces. Very sweet. I decide to raise to 1600. I do this because I am trying to represent a steal and a bully.

[/ QUOTE ]

how is a minraise representing a steal and a bully?

so you folded to his bet. you don't think he could possibly have had a middle pair or even just top pair? you have to trust your reads, but the range you put him on may have been too narrow. Was this the range you put him on as you were playing or as an afterthought?

[/ QUOTE ]

I don't see where hero said he folded to the probe bet. I assume he put the money in and lost most of his stack.

Re: Live tourny about 4hrs. ago
 

In the last live tourney I played, the CL was blind stealing with a consistent 3-4XBB bet. When I had enough of it, I re-raised over the top AI with AKo. He flipped AA. Not a bad beat, just bad luck for what is my standard "stand up to a bully" play with a hand. I think min-raising with AA as the CL is a huge mistake, esp in late position.

Re: Live tourny about 4hrs. ago
 

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]

Now I am in the CO and it is folded to me. I look down and find two red aces. Very sweet. I decide to raise to 1600. I do this because I am trying to represent a steal and a bully.

[/ QUOTE ]

how is a minraise representing a steal and a bully?

so you folded to his bet. you don't think he could possibly have had a middle pair or even just top pair? you have to trust your reads, but the range you put him on may have been too narrow. Was this the range you put him on as you were playing or as an afterthought?

[/ QUOTE ]

I don't see where hero said he folded to the probe bet. I assume he put the money in and lost most of his stack.

[/ QUOTE ]

read the last sentence of his OP. either villain mucked or hero mucked because villain never showed his hand (not clear on which street all the mucking took place).

Re: Live tourny about 4hrs. ago
 

[ QUOTE ]
I assume he put the money in and lost most of his stack.

[/ QUOTE ]

He said that he needed to ask villain what he had later on, meaning the hand wasn't showed down.

Edit: Sorry, didn't see the previous post

Re: Live tourny about 4hrs. ago
 

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]

(skip)
I decide to raise to 1600. I do this because I am trying to represent a steal and a bully.

(skip)
I have shown strength with my raise

[/ QUOTE ]

You're trying to have it both ways, representing a steal and showing strength at the same time. I don't like minraising with AA,

FWIW. I also think he could call with AK there, not wanting to inflate the pot out of position against a raiser.

[/ QUOTE ]

You're right. I can't rule out AK. He might just want to keep it cheap with this drawing hand preflop. I just put it behind the other hands as his most likely holding, but you're right. I shouldn't totally rule it out.

Re: Live tourny about 4hrs. ago
 

[ QUOTE ]
In my opinion, your minimum raise to 1600 preflop is your biggest flaw here. By raising only the minimum, you are giving the SB 2.33-1 on his money to just call. And then if he calls, the BB would be getting 5-1 for his call. Not to mention, there are some very juicy implied odds because of the chips to have.

IMO, you are giving both blinds a great opportunity to call here with very marginal hands and draw out on you. KQ is very likely here, as is 44. I'm not sure as to whether the SB is the type of player to slowplay a set on a raindow flop or top two. He could have a hand like AK, KJ and be leading out with a bet about 1/3 the pot to see where he is at in the hand. If you come over the top here, he may easily fold. I don't think calling is an option here. I believe you should either raise to 5000 or fold. If you raise to 5000, you're opponent should fold if he has a hand weaker than a KQ or 44. If he just calls, you can see what plays out on the turn. If he comes back over the top of you, you can dump the hand and leave yourself with 8400 in chips. That wouldn't seem too bad as you said you were pretty much running over the table.

Let us know what happened and how things played out. [/quot

The whole point was to give odds to the blinds. I wanted some action. I didn't just want to take down the blinds. I felt my hand was too strong. Plus the BB only had 3000 so if he goes all in and wins, big deal. Thats just about your guys "standard raise" anyways. As for the SB, He has a ton of chips that I want. Since I have played with him before, I felt very confident in mixing it up, with position, with the CL, with the best hand preflop. Alot of good "WITHS" there I think to pass up on this opportunity.

Re: Live tourny about 4hrs. ago
 

Whoops. my post starts with "The whole point.....

Re: Live tourny about 4hrs. ago
 

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]

(skip)
I decide to raise to 1600. I do this because I am trying to represent a steal and a bully.

(skip)
I have shown strength with my raise

[/ QUOTE ]

You're trying to have it both ways, representing a steal and showing strength at the same time. I don't like minraising with AA,

FWIW. I also think he could call with AK there, not wanting to inflate the pot out of position against a raiser.

[/ QUOTE ]

You're right. I can't rule out AK. He might just want to keep it cheap with this drawing hand preflop. I just put it behind the other hands as his most likely holding, but you're right. I shouldn't totally rule it out.

[/ QUOTE ]

If villain flat called in this situation with AK, he is a worse fish than hero.

The miniraise preflop wasn't terrible, but hero needed to get the money in. Raise the flop and push the turn. Hero could also flat call the flop and bet or raise the turn to trap villain a little.

Re: Live tourny about 4hrs. ago
 

All very valid points. I as looking to play a big pot with them. I knew a standard raise probably just sweeps the blinds, and I knew I didn't mind seeing a cheap flop with the intention of raising his raise, or betting if he checked. The problem is the K and Q on board. Two cards in the broadway zone. When Tighty whitey bets into me (especially an inticing bet like this one) that veers from his usual style of play. He is not a tricky player, but a vrry solid one. ABC if you will. So to answer your question. Yes I expected him to check call all the way, if he hit something he liked. Remember he is OOP and I can break his huge stack. Two factors in the equation that have check call written all over it.

Re: Live tourny about 4hrs. ago
 

When did you fold? Did you fold to the probe bet on the flop?

Brunson's technique of leading into the raiser with a set sure wouldn't work against you.

Re: Live tourny about 4hrs. ago
 

First off, live poker seems to me to be much much much different than online. The 3-5x raise leaning torwards the 5x so a JT,KJ and the likes can play back at me just doesn't happen as much. The reason.....I can see you and many times players are scared, timid, unsure, psych themselves out if they feel they have taken too long, and quite frankly aren't very good at it. It is a vastly different game (with the subtly differences but many of them). Not to mention that I have a great read on ALL my opponents and know there capabilities. I annot say the same for them. I hear them talking about the ballgame with each other. Thats great. Too bad you missed when seat 4 called his bet out instead of just placing it out there like he does EVERY time and flips up the nuts after being called. Oh you missed that guy watching the game? A shame. Even better, is the guys watching the game and talking amongst each other. Four of them. Now one of them looks at his hand and can't force a word out to the other guys question or comment. Thankyou for letting me know you have something. So My miniraise goes over ther heads as far as reading into it. All it does for them is give them the chance to play for a relatively cheap price. Which is what I wanted the whole time!

Re: Live tourny about 4hrs. ago
 

Its tough to potentially have AA and just steal the blinds but would you min raise with 1010? I doubt it. Like was stated.. maybe your normal LP raise when folded to and hope to get played back at. I raise the flop and somehow all my money is going in.. hopefully its as a fav but by the looks of it I don;t think so.

Re: Live tourny about 4hrs. ago
 

[ QUOTE ]
I can see you and many times players are scared, timid, unsure, psych themselves out if they feel they have taken too long, and quite frankly aren't very good at it.

[/ QUOTE ]

Like you.

Re: Live tourny about 4hrs. ago
 

No. This is what I do. I have complete control over my bodylanguage, mouth, etc....Not worried they'll get a read on me. Plus most of these guys aren' paying enough attention anyways.

Re: Live tourny about 4hrs. ago
 

[ QUOTE ]
No. This is what I do. I have complete control over my bodylanguage, mouth, etc....Not worried they'll get a read on me. Plus most of these guys aren' paying enough attention anyways.

[/ QUOTE ]

Funny, I had the same stuff going on in a live game I played Monday night. Nice local card room, most everyone knows each other and I'm Nick the new guy, thanks to a fellow 2+2er. Players are looking forward to taking the next smoke break, watching the game in the background, anything but paying attention to the table. Its great when you can raise OOP with T5 and be almost positive everyone folds. Live play is soooooo much better IMO.

Re: Live tourny about 4hrs. ago
 

Hero raises to T4000. You have to pop him on the flop.

This player is not going to come over the top without the best hand. If you just call, and he bets the turn you will have to call and be committed to the hand without ever knowing where you are at.

Re: Live tourny about 4hrs. ago
 

[ QUOTE ]
Hero raises to T4000. You have to pop him on the flop.

This player is not going to come over the top without the best hand. If you just call, and he bets the turn you will have to call and be committed to the hand without ever knowing where you are at.

[/ QUOTE ]

Raising to 4K is a reasonable way to play it, but I am not folding AA period with these stack sizes, this board, and late position action. I may or may not get all the money in on the flop or turn, but I am not folding aces here at any point in this hand.

The only hands that are ahead of you or KQ, 44, KK, and QQ. Now I am pushing with all of these against a late position raise from a loose big stack. It is particularly unlikely he would flat call with QQ. It is certainly possible that villain flat called with a hand that is ahead of AA, but not particularly likely.

Leading into the raiser is a standard play with 2-pair or a set. However, he could also have a K or Q and want to see where he stands. It could be a bluff, hoping hero has a pp or ace and missed the flop.

Hero panicked playing a hand against the other big stack.

Results
 

First off.....hero did not panic. Not even close. Hero was completely in control of the table, the chips, and his reads. I just wanted to see how many people were adamant about going to the felt with this hand. I recently wrote a post about getting attached and then this hand comes up. Very ironic. In my post I said you need to go with your reads and make your decisions. Sometimes your wrong, but to be successful (atleast live) you need to depend on them.

For the hand: Flop comes K Q 4. SB bets 1500. I found it very unusual of him to bet into me. With a hand as strong as KK,QQ I have already said I figured he would reraise preflop. 44's is interesting and worthy of a preflop call but I think that hand is SO sneaky that he would let me keep the lead (with two big cards in the broadway zone). So I deduced that he had a K with either a T,J,Q,A. Since there was a Q out there, I decided to flat call and see if he has the stones to follow through with a turn bet. This part of the hand is debateable as I know some will say "raise and see where your at". But with me being confident with my read and staring right at him instead of his name on a computer screen, I don't feel as though I'll get any more information out of him by betting/raising then I would by observing and calculating his moves in position. Plus if the turn comes blank (A-9) then yes I go to the felt automatically with this hand.

The turn comes a T. Not a good card for me. Now literally any of the combiations that I put him on are now hitting pretty hard. From a set (TT) to two pair (KQ,KT,QTs) to a straight (AJ). He glances at me as the turn peels off and then goes to his stack and bets 5000 (into a 7000 pot). I think for a moment and dump.

I lose 3100 on the hand. I proceed to pick up pots from the rest of the table and get my stack back up to where it was before the aces confrontation and then some within one orbit.

He told me after the final table (I finished 6 ironically when my AA gets cracked by J8o) that he had KQ and didn't expect me to have such a strong hand. He was value betting his hand.

Re: Results
 

[ QUOTE ]
First off.....hero did not panic. Not even close. Hero was completely in control of the table, the chips, and his reads. I just wanted to see how many people were adamant about going to the felt with this hand. I recently wrote a post about getting attached and then this hand comes up. Very ironic. In my post I said you need to go with your reads and make your decisions. Sometimes your wrong, but to be successful (atleast live) you need to depend on them.

For the hand: Flop comes K Q 4. SB bets 1500. I found it very unusual of him to bet into me. With a hand as strong as KK,QQ I have already said I figured he would reraise preflop. 44's is interesting and worthy of a preflop call but I think that hand is SO sneaky that he would let me keep the lead (with two big cards in the broadway zone). So I deduced that he had a K with either a T,J,Q,A. Since there was a Q out there, I decided to flat call and see if he has the stones to follow through with a turn bet. This part of the hand is debateable as I know some will say "raise and see where your at". But with me being confident with my read and staring right at him instead of his name on a computer screen, I don't feel as though I'll get any more information out of him by betting/raising then I would by observing and calculating his moves in position. Plus if the turn comes blank (A-9) then yes I go to the felt automatically with this hand.

The turn comes a T. Not a good card for me. Now literally any of the combiations that I put him on are now hitting pretty hard. From a set (TT) to two pair (KQ,KT,QTs) to a straight (AJ). He glances at me as the turn peels off and then goes to his stack and bets 5000 (into a 7000 pot). I think for a moment and dump.

I lose 3100 on the hand. I proceed to pick up pots from the rest of the table and get my stack back up to where it was before the aces confrontation and then some within one orbit.

He told me after the final table (I finished 6 ironically when my AA gets cracked by J8o) that he had KQ and didn't expect me to have such a strong hand. He was value betting his hand.

[/ QUOTE ]

http://twodimes.net/h/?z=1502270
pokenum -h ad ah - ks qc -- kh qs 4d
Holdem Hi: 990 enumerated boards containing Qs 4d Kh
cards win %win lose %lose tie %tie EV
Ad Ah 268 27.07 722 72.93 0 0.00 0.271
Ks Qc 722 72.93 268 27.07 0 0.00 0.729

http://twodimes.net/h/?z=1502286
pokenum -h ad ah - ks qc -- kh qs 4d tc
Holdem Hi: 44 enumerated boards containing Qs Tc 4d Kh
cards win %win lose %lose tie %tie EV
Ad Ah 12 27.27 32 72.73 0 0.00 0.273
Ks Qc 32 72.73 12 27.27 0 0.00 0.727

You are 27% against KQ on the flop and on the turn.

All the more reason to raise the flop. If he has Kx, you don't want to let him draw cheaply. If he has KQ, he doubles up unless you draw out.

Re: Results
 

You're right. All the numbers add up to me raising the flop. I think as a general rule this is the right play to make. But I had a feeling that he hit his two pair and there is something to be said about going with your read. I just felt that he wouldn't bet into me with anything less than twopair here. The only other possibility is AK. So if he had AK then I made a mistake. But with me having two of the aces, it seemed less likely that he held one.

One Possibility might be if I raise the flop knowing that he has two pair. He might just call and look for a check raise on the turn thinking that I will keep the lead. Then when the 10 hits, I check behind. Now any 4,10,J,or A wins (12 outs) and I get to see the hand through. This way of playing the hand would cost me about 4000 on the flop ( I have to be careful how much I raise here because it just might be enough for him to justify pushing right there). So in essence, I saved 2500 on the hand but lost the possibility to see it through. Now I just need to figure out the % that he would do that exact call raise/check (with intention of raising turn) combo.

Re: Results
 

[ QUOTE ]
You're right. All the numbers add up to me raising the flop. I think as a general rule this is the right play to make. But I had a feeling that he hit his two pair and there is something to be said about going with your read. I just felt that he wouldn't bet into me with anything less than twopair here. The only other possibility is AK. So if he had AK then I made a mistake. But with me having two of the aces, it seemed less likely that he held one.

One Possibility might be if I raise the flop knowing that he has two pair. He might just call and look for a check raise on the turn thinking that I will keep the lead. Then when the 10 hits, I check behind. Now any 4,10,J,or A wins (12 outs) and I get to see the hand through. This way of playing the hand would cost me about 4000 on the flop ( I have to be careful how much I raise here because it just might be enough for him to justify pushing right there). So in essence, I saved 2500 on the hand but lost the possibility to see it through. Now I just need to figure out the % that he would do that exact call raise/check (with intention of raising turn) combo.

[/ QUOTE ]

If your read was he had 2-pair, you may have played it right, assuming he told you the truth he had KQ. The problem is that KQ and 44 are pretty much the only hands he could have that beat you. AK is real unlikely, as no one flat calls a CO raise with AK.

Since you have outs against KQ (and KT on the turn), I would just go with my overpair and hope I am ahead or can draw out. However, I can't really argue if you had a strong read, which was apparently correct.

Re: Results
 

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You're right. All the numbers add up to me raising the flop. I think as a general rule this is the right play to make. But I had a feeling that he hit his two pair and there is something to be said about going with your read. I just felt that he wouldn't bet into me with anything less than twopair here. The only other possibility is AK. So if he had AK then I made a mistake. But with me having two of the aces, it seemed less likely that he held one.

One Possibility might be if I raise the flop knowing that he has two pair. He might just call and look for a check raise on the turn thinking that I will keep the lead. Then when the 10 hits, I check behind. Now any 4,10,J,or A wins (12 outs) and I get to see the hand through. This way of playing the hand would cost me about 4000 on the flop ( I have to be careful how much I raise here because it just might be enough for him to justify pushing right there). So in essence, I saved 2500 on the hand but lost the possibility to see it through. Now I just need to figure out the % that he would do that exact call raise/check (with intention of raising turn) combo.

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If your read was he had 2-pair, you may have played it right, assuming he told you the truth he had KQ. The problem is that KQ and 44 are pretty much the only hands he could have that beat you. AK is real unlikely, as no one flat calls a CO raise with AK.

Since you have outs against KQ (and KT on the turn), I would just go with my overpair and hope I am ahead or can draw out. However, I can't really argue if you had a strong read, which was apparently correct.

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There-in lies the beauty of live play in a B&M room. Nice read, you cannot quantify the value of such info. Nice job.

Re: Results
 

It's a great hand, and really illustrates the difference between live and online play.

Great read!

Re: Live tourny about 4hrs. ago
 

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Now I am in the CO and it is folded to me. I look down and find two red aces. Very sweet. I decide to raise to 1600. I do this because I am trying to represent a steal and a bully. My raises though quite frequent have been garnering alot of respect (from all the good hands I've shown) and I felt that this hand was too strong to just take the blinds.

Read on SB....I have played with this guy many times before. Both in tournaments, and in cash games ranging from 3-6 to 15-30 to the 2/5 no limit they spread. I am very familiar with his play and I have to assume he knows me a little. He is very tight. Doesn't get out of line ever. Plays his good hands strong. Lays down marginals (A9,QJ,etc..)and won't bluff into a raise. Oh and by the way, he has about 11000 so he is other CL at table. Only guy that can hurt me.

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I've been thinking a bit about this hand and this post, because things just don't quite feel right here. I don't really have a coherent response, but let me do my best to articulate my impressions reading this.

You want to represent yourself as being a bully, and you just won the last hand with kings. How many other times so far / recently in this tournament have you minraised from late position? Though I don't really like a minraise, if this is typical for you and you've been "dominating the table" as you stated in your original post, then I can see why you would do it with a big hand here. However, I don't like your reasoning. You always *want* to win more than just the blinds with any hand you're dealt, especially AA, but that doesn't mean you slowplay them or minraise with them to get one extra bet out, especially when gaining that extra t800 may very well cost you much more than you stand to win. If you are really trying to represent a steal, then bet what you would with a steal -- i'd have a hard time betting less than t2000 here, especially with the blinds so large relative to the effective stack sizes. Besides, such a bet comes closer to being cEV neutral if you end up getting sucked out on and paying with your stack anyway (i.e., it makes it hard / impossible for you to really make a mistake).

Given this player in the SB, whom you know to be tight, the minraise shouldn't be targetted at him. Since you have such a complete and expert read on him (tight, doesn't bluff ever into a raiser, folds marginal hands), then now is not the time he is going to put 15% of his stack in preflop with very many hands that he wouldn't put more/all of his stack in. BB has only t3000 chips, so i can only assume he's either playing for them all this hand or folding to any raise -- i.e., I'm not sure who you are trying to induce to put more chips in and how this is a more effective way of doing it than making a more typical raise.

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Back to the hand. He thinks for a moment and just calls. BB folds. Right away I rule out AA(cause I got em),KK,QQ,and AK. I believe he would reraise with these hands. Remember he bets his strong hands. I have shown strength with my raise and he wouldn't slowplay here with a big hand. Just by calling my raise (mini as it may be) he has to have one of the following I think. PP (less than QQ), AQ,AJ,KQ,KJs,KTs (pushing it),QTs (really pushing it).

Flop comes K Q 4 rainbow. (pot is 4000 for math impaired) He bets 1500 into me! What to do?

If raise, how much? If call or called and turn is T! Now what? What if he continues to bet into you? Fold? Call? Allin?...

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From this point on, I'm not sure why, or if, you're asking for advice. Your line is completely read-based, and you have conveniently narrowed his range to one that is ahead of your hand. Though I know stronger reads are more common in live play than in online play (this is one of the reasons I prefer live play myself), it seems a little hard to believe that this player is so readable-tight that you know from his probe bet that he must have KQ or 44 (maybe an unlikely KJ or KT, but he dumps such marginal hands, right?). But if he figures you for a steal, what is the point in leading out with such hands? They aren't likely to be drawn out against, and I assume that you've been making enough continuation bets that he figures he could win more from a weak hand and the same amount from a strong hand with a check-raise.

But fine ... so you have your read, and you figure he either has TPGK or two-pair plus. Here is a situation where you don't really want to fold yet, but you'd like to quickly find out if you're good (if it's possible to do so with an effective stack of about t9600 and a pot of t3600). So -- given your read, if he has TPGK, does he typically shut down on the turn, or keep firing if you call behind? If you raise, does he call/fold/push this hand, and what do you expect him to do if he has two pair or a set? If he is as predictable as you make him out to be, you should be able to use this information to decide how to play the hand. But again, so much of your statement of the situation and your reasoning for even considering folding this hand is read-dependent, I don't know what more of a response you are looking for. Imagine how he would play each of the hands in his range vs. each of your possible actions, then choose which one will win the most when you're ahead and/or lose the least when you're behind.

The main options I see are (assuming if he puts any more money into the pot it means he has KQ+):
raise to t3400 (i know it's a tiny raise), and check-fold unless you improve.
call and fold the turn unimproved (i.e., no 4,A) if he bets, bet if he checks to you.

If, on the other hand, you assume he's not so perfectly readable as you have led us to believe (i.e., against most opponents), I would raise to about half his remaing stack, and put the rest in as soon as possible.

FWIW, I can think of exactly one player I've played with recently in a live tournament where I would muck on the flop without hesitation, but hundreds whom I would beat into the pot with my chips.

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Please help break this puzzle.

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I take some issue with the way you've presented this hand for consideration, but in short I'm not sure you really consider it a puzzle to be broken -- the impression I get is that you consider it a great laydown that you made (though really, you helped get yourself into the situation with a suspect minraise preflop) in a tournament where you had been "dominating," and in which you could have crippled yourself by getting overcommitted with a strong hand, but instead laid it down when you knew you were behind. You presented the hand in a leading way from the beginning to heavily skew his hand range and action to KQ / 44, and also gave us the results that you didn't get to a showdown, none of which is helpful for providing an unbiased analysis of the hand / formulating a plan.

Re: Live tourny about 4hrs. ago
 

Yeh, as I said, I think you just have to put your money in with AA. It is almost certain you are ahead. If villain acutally had KQ, it was a great read to put villain on one of the two hands he could reasonably have that were ahead. However, my feeling was the laydown was more prompted by fear of going allin against the other big stack.