KK in a Nasty Spot, r/r-ed pot
 

This hand is a full ring hand against a (winning) 28/8/2 regular. I was planning to check flops like this but since it went three handed to the flop, I figured I mighth as well value bet.

What hands are raising this flop that I beat, and what is my line ... basically fold or shove?

Full Tilt Poker
No Limit Holdem Ring game
Blinds: $0.50/$1
9 players
Converter

Stack sizes:
UTG: $64.20
UTG+1: $24
MP1: $153.60
MP2: $154.40
MP3: $99
CO: $55
Button: $97
Hero: $150.40
BB: $81

Pre-flop: (9 players) Hero is SB with K[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] K[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]
2 folds, MP1 calls, <font color="#cc0000">MP2 raises to $4</font>, MP3 folds, CO calls, Button folds, <font color="#cc0000">Hero raises to $18</font>, 2 folds, MP2 calls, CO calls.

Flop: Q[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] 2[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] 4[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] ($56, 3 players)
<font color="#cc0000">Hero bets $38</font>, <font color="#cc0000">MP2 raises to $80</font>, CO folds, Hero ...

Re: KK in a Nasty Spot, r/r-ed pot
 

I shove, but then again I like to stack off [img]/images/graemlins/grin.gif[/img]

Re: KK in a Nasty Spot, r/r-ed pot
 

WA/WB. Reads on what he does with AA-QQ preflop would help. Will he always 4-bet AA? Will he call a 3-bet w/AQ? Have you been 3-betting a lot or been caught 3-betting light?

You're looking at AA, QQ, or AQ. I probably shove and stack off on this one too. Might be why KK is such an unprofitable hand for me.

Re: KK in a Nasty Spot, r/r-ed pot
 

Stack off and lose to QQ imo.

That's what I'd do anyway.


EDIT: Just checked stack sizes...sigh at being deep. But I HATE FOLDING TO MIN-RAISES. It's a typed in bet so that maybe suggests he thought about it and didn't want you out of the hand.

WTF though, helps to know what he essentially min-raises on flop.

Re: KK in a Nasty Spot, r/r-ed pot
 

I dunno how FR plays, but im stacking off here in 6max

Re: KK in a Nasty Spot, r/r-ed pot
 

Definitely shoving.

Re: KK in a Nasty Spot, r/r-ed pot
 

Your 150bb's deep, this isn't a good spot to stack off here. Unless this guy is a complete donk, your beaten here a lot and the only hand that plays like this is AQ. The MP+2's raise looks real strong with the CO to act behind him and the board is very dry. Fold and move on~

Re: KK in a Nasty Spot, r/r-ed pot
 

Fold, though its a little strange for him to raise that flop with a set with co behind him.

Re: KK in a Nasty Spot, r/r-ed pot
 

I see aces played with MP+2's line more and more these days at this level.

Re: KK in a Nasty Spot, r/r-ed pot
 

You are facing AA, QQ, or AQ here, or maybe the longshot remaining KK. With the cards on the board there are 6 ways to have AA, one way to have KK, 4 ways to have QQ and 12 ways to have AQ. Having 22 or 44 is too reckless to call re-raise PF. so eliminating any hand but the 4 from possibilities there are 23 possible hands:

AA 6/23
KK 1/23
QQ 4/23
AQ 12/23

So statistically there is over a 50% chance that you are ahead or tied if these are the hands in question. There is a 43% that you are behind. Of the 43% you are behind you have 2 outs to make you 8% to turn or river a 3rd K. If they have AQ, they have 5 outs or 20% to turn or river an A or Q. All in all statistically this does look pretty even for you. However, would this person call a re-raise PF with AQ, if the answer is no, then you are probably down to 8% to win. So as always it is read specific. If he will call with AQ, this is a call. I would slow down here and not try to build a huge pot, because you do only have one pair. Small hand = small pot. There is no reason to get stacked here. If your read on the player has them folding AQ PF, then fold.

Oh yeah, there is the 10% that they are on a total bluff hoping you missed the flop and just made a c-bet.

Re: KK in a Nasty Spot, r/r-ed pot
 

[ QUOTE ]
However, would this person call a re-raise PF with AQ, if the answer is no, then you are probably down to 8% to win. So as always it is read specific. If he will call with AQ, this is a call.

[/ QUOTE ]

This is the most important point. It's all very well and good to put him on a range and give the number of combinations for each hand. But the probability he has each hand is dependant more upon the way he would play said hand than the number of combinations of hands that are possible.

Re: KK in a Nasty Spot, r/r-ed pot
 

Thanks all for the input ... my nit self folded here, mostly because I thought I had a good handle on the player (500+ hands).

With respect to posters talking about 6max/fullring, yes I go broke here in six max but unless the villain is a terrible player, I think this is becoming more of a standard fold for me in a reraised pot (although I admit playing a set this way is terrible; assuming villain flopped a monster).

Re: KK in a Nasty Spot, r/r-ed pot
 

I think even 3-ways you can pretty safely check this dry flop. The only turn card that sucks for you is an Ace.

That said, this line stinks of QQ or AA. Tough spot and a fold probably isn't bad.