Do most .5/1 players fold Aces here?
 

Am I completely nuts to try this bluff? Villain is 30/20 through 20 hands FWIW.

PokerStars No-Limit Hold'em, $1.00 BB (9 handed)
Hero ($58)
UTG ($28.60)
UTG+1 ($140.45)
MP1 ($125.55)
MP2 ($36.15)
MP3 ($41.15)
CO ($169.50)
Button ($43.50)
SB ($121.80)

Preflop: Hero is BB with K[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], A[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img].
<font color="#666666">5 folds</font>, <font color="#CC3333">CO raises to $4</font>, <font color="#666666">2 folds</font>, Hero calls $3.

Flop: ($8.50) 7[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], 6[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], 8[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
Hero checks, <font color="#CC3333">CO bets $5</font>, <font color="#CC3333">Hero raises to $13</font>, CO calls $8.

Turn: ($34.50) 5[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
<font color="#CC3333">Hero bets $20</font>, CO calls $20.

River: ($74.50) 3[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
<font color="#CC3333">Hero bets $21 (All-In)</font>, CO calls $21.

Final Pot: $116.50

Results in white below: <font color="#FFFFFF">
Hero has Kd As (high card, ace).
CO has Ad Ac (one pair, aces).
Outcome: CO wins $116.50. </font>

Re: Do most .5/1 players fold Aces here?
 

getting 5-1 on the call probably not

Re: Do most .5/1 players fold Aces here?
 

yes. you're crazy. you want him to fold for $21 more in a $95 pot?

Re: Do most .5/1 players fold Aces here?
 

I'm asking primarily about the turn, not the river.

Re: Do most .5/1 players fold Aces here?
 

this is fine sir.

<font color="white"> short stackers [censored] suck, but make plays like this... </font>

Re: Do most .5/1 players fold Aces here?
 

ummm ..your flop re-raise is terrible ... if u want to make a re-raise that bet should be more like 18-20 ... 13 is wayyy too weak.

were u to make a sizeable raise there and still get called, you would know by then that future bets are probably not going to work and youd save yourself some money on later streets.

Re: Do most .5/1 players fold Aces here?
 

[ QUOTE ]
this is fine sir.

short stackers [censored] suck, but make plays like this...

[/ QUOTE ]

I don't think I understand what you are saying here.

Re: Do most .5/1 players fold Aces here?
 

The turn bet is somewhat ok.

Why oh why oh why oh why bet river?????

Re: Do most .5/1 players fold Aces here?
 

[ QUOTE ]
The turn bet is somewhat ok.

Why oh why oh why oh why bet river?????

[/ QUOTE ]

Because some people will call a two-barrel bluff but not three-barrels, and it was a relatively cheap bet to make relative to the pot. If villain folds 25% of the time I am profitable, and he really took his time calling the turn, so I thought I had enough of a chance. Checking just gives up the pot...it's not like he's calling the turn with AQ.

Re: Do most .5/1 players fold Aces here?
 

I don't think there's any way he folds to $20 on river after calling $20 on turn. Certainly not 25% of the time.

Re: Do most .5/1 players fold Aces here?
 

Reraise pre-flop?

If you want to bluff at this, push the turn. Too easy for him to put you on a FD, or an overpair, or even two pair that he has a chance to counterfeit.

Re: Do most .5/1 players fold Aces here?
 

[ QUOTE ]
Reraise pre-flop?

If you want to bluff at this, push the turn. Too easy for him to put you on a FD, or an overpair, or even two pair that he has a chance to counterfeit.

[/ QUOTE ]

I didn't push the turn because if I actually had a straight, I wouldn't have pushed. I was trying to bet the amount I would have bet if I had a straight; it seemed like a more convincing bluff that way.

Re: Do most .5/1 players fold Aces here?
 

[ QUOTE ]
It was a relatively cheap bet to call relative to the pot.

[/ QUOTE ]

FYP

Re: Do most .5/1 players fold Aces here?
 

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Reraise pre-flop?

If you want to bluff at this, push the turn. Too easy for him to put you on a FD, or an overpair, or even two pair that he has a chance to counterfeit.

[/ QUOTE ]

I didn't push the turn because if I actually had a straight, I wouldn't have pushed. I was trying to bet the amount I would have bet if I had a straight; it seemed like a more convincing bluff that way.

[/ QUOTE ]

SSNLers dont think like that. They think "ooo! it's cheap to call!"

If you really must bluff at this pot, set it up so that your turn bet is a potsized push.

Re: Do most .5/1 players fold Aces here?
 

If you're going to checkraise, checkraise more.

The reason we call for set value in full ring is because we hope overpairs can't fold, particularly AA.

Re: Do most .5/1 players fold Aces here?
 

i read the title and thought "no." i read your line and i laughed and i thought "lolololllll fold rawketz he could be bruffing LOLOLOL no"

edit: also i would never ever try bluffing with &lt;100BB effective stacks

Re: Do most .5/1 players fold Aces here?
 

yes plz rebuy

3 bet preflop

makes postflop play so much easier

Re: Do most .5/1 players fold Aces here?
 

You managed to play every street incorrectly, that's pretty cool.

Re: Do most .5/1 players fold Aces here?
 

It is very hard to make NL100 people to fold aces. If you are sure villain is a very good player that can lay down AA, you have to do these:

1. Deep stack, it would be best have the same or bigger stack than Villain. And in your hand, it would be best if you have $170. At least you would have to have full stack, which is $100.

2. Your flop raise is okay if you are trying to represent a set or drawing a straight or flush.

3. You push on turn your remaining $83 (assuming you only have $100 to start) into the $34.5 pot. Even better if you have $170 to start, just push the remaining $153 onto the $34.5 pot. This would probably make him lay down AA since the flop is very scary and he is not commited yet.

As played, you were a short stack, and the way you bet you were never going to make him lay down his AA.

Re: Do most .5/1 players fold Aces here?
 

I certainly thought about reraising preflop, but I thought since I was out of position I would take a look at the flop and check-raise it if it looked good..

In any case, if I did reraise, I'm not sure I could have folded to a four-bet considering my stack size.

Re: Do most .5/1 players fold Aces here?
 

[ QUOTE ]
It is very hard to make NL100 people to fold aces. If you are sure villain is a very good player that can lay down AA, you have to do these:


3. You push on turn your remaining $83 (assuming you only have $100 to start) into the $34.5 pot. Even better if you have $170 to start, just push the remaining $153 onto the $34.5 pot. This would probably make him lay down AA since the flop is very scary and he is not commited yet.


[/ QUOTE ]

Betting $153 to win a $34.5 pot on a stone bluff seems absurd to me given the risk/reward ratio. It's not like I know he has aces. If I had a $170 stack, I would have bet the same 2/3 of the pot that I did with my stack. I don't see why the villain would be less likely to call a overbet, since if I have a straight, he would be drawing dead and forced to call a very large bet on the river.

Of course, having a larger stack size would have given me much better options on the river.

Re: Do most .5/1 players fold Aces here?
 

If you absolutely MUST bluff with short stacks here, raise more on the flop, push the turn. I think the call preflop is fine assuming you are going to check-fold the flop, otherwise reraise. You can call or fold to a push, it doesn't matter - it's about neutral EV either way.

Re: Do most .5/1 players fold Aces here?
 

Yes, you are completely nuts to try this bluff. You don't have enough chips for it to work, as you can't make the pot big enough while at the same time leaving enough behind for a sizeable river bluff.

You don't give much of a read and it's a small sample size, but there are better ways to play AKo OOP vs. a 30/20 Villain when you have 58BB to start the hand.

Being a 30/20 LAG, that board could easily have hit him pretty well, and after he calls the flop check-raise (which is too small) you should be done with the hand.

FWIW, your line would be great if you actually wanted a call.

Re: Do most .5/1 players fold Aces here?
 

[ QUOTE ]
Yes, you are completely nuts to try this bluff. You don't have enough chips for it to work, as you can't make the pot big enough while at the same time leaving enough behind for a sizeable river bluff.

You don't give much of a read and it's a small sample size, but there are better ways to play AKo OOP vs. a 30/20 Villain when you have 58BB to start the hand.

Being a 30/20 LAG, that board could easily have hit him pretty well, and after he calls the flop check-raise (which is too small) you should be done with the hand.

FWIW, your line would be great if you actually wanted a call.

[/ QUOTE ]

I was trying to make it look like I really wanted a call. I've always been under the impression that if you are trying to bluff, you should play the hand as if you had the hand you are representing. Also, I wasn't ready to peg the player as a LAG just because he has raised 4 out of 20 hands.

BTW, I'm used to playing NL in live games (where the buy-ins are about 50BBs) and Limit online...I've just started trying to play NL online. I immediately found the online NL players to be much more weak-tight than 1/2 casino players. I would have never tried this play in a 1/2 live game, but of course, in a 1/2 live game, there would be five players in this pot. That's why I framed the question the way I did. I certainly would have folded the turn if I were in Villain's position, and thought most decent players would as well.

Re: Do most .5/1 players fold Aces here?
 

While the turn was bad, atleast you had a chance of bluffing him out. By the river, when nothing had changed and you fired just 20 more, you were just setting that $20 on fire.

Re: Do most .5/1 players fold Aces here?
 

BTW, can someone give me the argument FOR reraising preflop here...it seems like a pretty fundamental question.

As I see it, if I reraise (to ~$15) and Villain folds, I win a small pot.
If I reraise and Villain pushes, I am probably $15 -EV whether I call or fold.
If I reraise and Villain calls, I flop TPTK about 1/3 of the time:
- If I flop TPTK, I push the flop and usually win $15; sometimes I win $60 and rarely I lose $60.
- If I don't flop TPTK, I think I am forced to check-fold, right?...in which case I have lost $15. Any bet basically wins me $15 about half the time and loses me $60 half the time.

If I just call, I can win a decent pot when I flop I TPTK by check-raising the flop, and can try to judge the flop for bluffing opportunities and sometimes win without flopping a pair.

BTW, if I do flop TPTK, I think I am losing my entire stack in cases where the Villain has AA whether I reraise preflop or not. I can't away from that with only 60BBs.

Re: Do most .5/1 players fold Aces here?
 

"Am I completely nuts to try this bluff?"

Yes.

Re: Do most .5/1 players fold Aces here?
 

don't bluff with short stack.

Re: Do most .5/1 players fold Aces here?
 

flop: yuk
turn: yukk
river: lol

Re: Do most .5/1 players fold Aces here?
 

[ QUOTE ]
BTW, can someone give me the argument FOR reraising preflop here...it seems like a pretty fundamental question.

As I see it, if I reraise (to ~$15) and Villain folds, I win a small pot.
If I reraise and Villain pushes, I am probably $15 -EV whether I call or fold.
If I reraise and Villain calls, I flop TPTK about 1/3 of the time:
- If I flop TPTK, I push the flop and usually win $15; sometimes I win $60 and rarely I lose $60.
- If I don't flop TPTK, I think I am forced to check-fold, right?...in which case I have lost $15. Any bet basically wins me $15 about half the time and loses me $60 half the time.

If I just call, I can win a decent pot when I flop I TPTK by check-raising the flop, and can try to judge the flop for bluffing opportunities and sometimes win without flopping a pair.

BTW, if I do flop TPTK, I think I am losing my entire stack in cases where the Villain has AA whether I reraise preflop or not. I can't away from that with only 60BBs.

[/ QUOTE ]
If you miss you can still steal the pot with a c-bet, if he pushes and you call you are about neutral EV against his range. If you miss, you c-bet AND he pushes than your done...

Oh and yeah TPTK is the nutzzz with a 58 bb stack (exceptions etc. blah blah), just reload and play some real poker. Not to mention that villain will have trash that you are owning way more often than AA in these spots.

Re: Do most .5/1 players fold Aces here?
 

If you plan on going all in bet a lot more on the turn (40). You have no FE on the river at all.

Re: Do most .5/1 players fold Aces here?
 

if i'm going to try it, I raise MORE on the flop and PUSH the turn.

but, he probably can't lay down aces anyways.

Re: Do most .5/1 players fold Aces here?
 

This is why you should never fold Aces at 100NL (without a good read), especially not against short stacks.

Re: Do most .5/1 players fold Aces here?
 

[ QUOTE ]
I certainly thought about reraising preflop, but I thought since I was out of position I would take a look at the flop and check-raise it if it looked good..

In any case, if I did reraise, I'm not sure I could have folded to a four-bet considering my stack size.

[/ QUOTE ]

You realize, don't you, that what you are basically saying is that you didn't want to re-raise preflop because you wanted your opponent to be able to use position.

Being OOP preflop should make you more inclined to re-raise, not less.

Also, your comments about "winning a small pot" preflop when you re-raise are silly.

1) How many hands in your PT db average 5.5bb/hand, which is what winning outright achieves here.
2) If he calls and folds a small pair on the flop when you don't improve, you win even more.
3) You don't have a monster, you have Ace-High.

Lastly, to answer your original question:

--People don't ever ever ever ever ever ever ever fold Aces to short-stackers. This is simply fact. They won't do it. Doesn't matter how credible your bluff looks (by the way, you just compounded this problem by making it easy for him to call with your betsizing).

If you want to make big bluffs, buy in full. The only viable short-stack strategy is playing tight and value betting strong hands.

Re: Do most .5/1 players fold Aces here?
 

I guess I didn't realize 60 BBs was a "short stack". I have only been playing NL online for a week. I am used to playing in live games with 40-50 BB buy-ins, and in tourneys where the average stack is like 20 BB by the third or fourth level.

The river bet was pretty dumb. But I'm still surprised I got called on the turn. 2/3 of the pot is basically my standard bet...I didn't push b/c I thought it would look suspicious and b/c that's not how most people would play a straight against a likely overpair.