Doyles Fold Of QQ at the 50k Horse Final Table!
 

The guy is a god ! dunno how he made the good fold after that flop.

amazing

Re: Doyles Fold Of QQ at the 50k Horse Final Table!
 

That was a big laydown.

Doyle has QQ Utg and raises
Chip had KK behind Doyle, calls
David Singer in MP calls with 66

Doyle makes a significant, but non-committing bet on 732 rainbow board. Chip mini-raises, David Singer fold his 66, and Doyle thinks. After a while, he mucks, exposing one Queen.

This spurs some conversation leading Andy Bloch to believe that he folded AQ, saying he can't fold QQ there, and TJ chimes in "If he thinks their beat he'll fold 'em."


The fold probably has plenty to do with the dynamics between Chip and Doyle over the years.

Still though - un-freakin-believable laydown - apparently TJ even found the possibility for fold there, but that's a tough laydown.

Re: Doyles Fold Of QQ at the 50k Horse Final Table!
 

That wasn't a big laydown, it was collusion. Doyle and Chip are known to be partners and I am quite sure they had some sort of deal going. Do I have evidence? No, of course not.

Re: Doyles Fold Of QQ at the 50k Horse Final Table!
 

[ QUOTE ]
That wasn't a big laydown, it was collusion. Doyle and Chip are known to be partners and I am quite sure they had some sort of deal going. Do I have evidence? No, of course not.

[/ QUOTE ]

So just because two friends play together and one of the best poker players ever makes a big laydown that leads you to state that there was collusion going on...Really bright analysis

Re: Doyles Fold Of QQ at the 50k Horse Final Table!
 

If Reese went allin I bet Doyle calls.

Re: Doyles Fold Of QQ at the 50k Horse Final Table!
 

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
That wasn't a big laydown, it was collusion. Doyle and Chip are known to be partners and I am quite sure they had some sort of deal going. Do I have evidence? No, of course not.

[/ QUOTE ]

So just because two friends play together and one of the best poker players ever makes a big laydown that leads you to state that there was collusion going on...Really bright analysis

[/ QUOTE ]

I think Shandrax was joking.

Re: Doyles Fold Of QQ at the 50k Horse Final Table!
 

I was not joking, I still think it was collusion, in fact I am 100% sure. They both knew that it was obvious and that's why they looked extremely uncomfortable with it.

Flop comes 2-3-7 rainbow and Chip re-raises the minimum giving Doyle the chance to move in with aces in which case he would have folded his kings without much of a thought (losing the minimum on the play)...

Re: Doyles Fold Of QQ at the 50k Horse Final Table!
 

[ QUOTE ]
I was not joking, I still think it was collusion, in fact I am 100% sure. They both knew that it was obvious and that's why they looked extremely uncomfortable with it.

Flop comes 2-3-7 rainbow and Chip re-raises the minimum giving Doyle the chance to move in with aces in which case he would have folded his kings without much of a thought (losing the minimum on the play)...

[/ QUOTE ]

This makes sense to me on the surface, without thinking about it further. Collusion but not really cheating.


One theoretical question I wonder about sometimes, not of practical interest to me because I don't play 4000/8000 nor with any regulars -- if 9 people are at a table and they know each others' betting patterns, and then a 10th player sits down, isn't that 10th player at a disadvantage? Don't we see that in posts here with "reads" all the time?


The implications remind me of prisoner's dilemma a little bit...

Re: Doyles Fold Of QQ at the 50k Horse Final Table!
 

This is degenerating into one of the most ridiculous threads ever.

Re: Doyles Fold Of QQ at the 50k Horse Final Table!
 

while it was a great laydown, chip's play smelled like a set more than anything, so it's not like doyle knew chip was slowplaying AA/KK.

Re: Doyles Fold Of QQ at the 50k Horse Final Table!
 

[ QUOTE ]
This is degenerating into one of the most ridiculous threads ever.

[/ QUOTE ]

I asked a theory question. You know, with math and game theory and stuff. That sure is ridiculous! If you don't think the question is at least interesting then you don't think too much.

But anyway... Let's talk more about big laydowns and "smelling when you're beat"!

Re: Doyles Fold Of QQ at the 50k Horse Final Table!
 

[ QUOTE ]
while it was a great laydown, chip's play smelled like a set more than anything, so it's not like doyle knew chip was slowplaying AA/KK.

[/ QUOTE ]
actually Doyle did know. right before he mucked his hand, he said "i knew you had some kind of pair, but i didn't know what pair it was".

Re: Doyles Fold Of QQ at the 50k Horse Final Table!
 

"The implications remind me of prisoner's dilemma a little bit..."

actually it should remind u of zero sum games, not prisoners dilemma. if one person wins another has to lose. both can't win. (ie Heads up)

Re: Doyles Fold Of QQ at the 50k Horse Final Table!
 

[ QUOTE ]
if 9 people are at a table and they know each others' betting patterns, and then a 10th player sits down, isn't that 10th player at a disadvantage?

[/ QUOTE ]

Yes, of course. How could they not?

[ QUOTE ]
The implications remind me of prisoner's dilemma a little bit...

[/ QUOTE ]

Explain.

Re: Doyles Fold Of QQ at the 50k Horse Final Table!
 

I don't think Doyle knew what he had. He just felt (instincts) that his hand was beat. Against any other player at the table, he probably moves in. The smooth call by Chip on the flop is what made him dump his hand, after he replayed the action in his head.

Re: Doyles Fold Of QQ at the 50k Horse Final Table!
 

Obviously Chip nudged Doyle with his knee under the table.

Re: Doyles Fold Of QQ at the 50k Horse Final Table!
 

[ QUOTE ]


[ QUOTE ]
The implications remind me of prisoner's dilemma a little bit...

[/ QUOTE ]

Explain.

[/ QUOTE ]

The thought was this:

Say Chip's course of action will give both him and Doyle a lot of information, and add to both of their EV, at the expense of David, who doesn't know what the minraise means. (I have no opinion on whether Shandrax's hypothesis is true here BTW, until I or someone else thinks about it more)

Well, that's a great result for Doyle and Chip individually. But not the best result. The best result for Doyle is to use Chip's assumption against him, and bluff. Similar to confessing in the prisoner's dilemma. You see this in Negreanu's blog all the time: "He knows my game really well so I decided to do something completely different". (Then again maybe not, I'm not sure I've seen that line of thinking in Negreanu's blog, but it should be the most natural reasoning in the world, no?)

This would maximize Doyle's EV for the short term. But for the long term, Chip will adjust, and they will once again have no information about each other. So the best long-term result for both of them is some outside referee telling them not to deceive each other. Prisoner's dilemma.

Re: Doyles Fold Of QQ at the 50k Horse Final Table!
 

Sure, Doyle knew that he was beat. I am not arguing with that. It's the combination of a very dry flop and a big overpair that makes me wonder. On a 7-high rainbow flop he folds queens to a min-raise? Come on! Not even Hellmuth does that.

Let's say they decide to softplay each other. Wouldn't this be exactly how it should work in practice - using betting patterns similar to bridge?

First they sandwich Singer and once he folds it's all about deciding who gets the pot. I make a raise if I think I can win it, you make a min-raise if you think that you got a monster, I fold unless I got the absolute nuts in which case I re-raise all-in, then you give it some Hollywood and fold.

Rumors are that Chip and Doyle got something like 20 years of experience "besthanding" people in such a way.

Re: Doyles Fold Of QQ at the 50k Horse Final Table!
 

Really disappointed to read the discussion of possible collusion between Doyle & Chip.

Doyle made a great read, period. He raised UTG which indicates a big hand. Chip smooth calls Doyle's obvious big hand preflop with entire field to act. Doyle bets the flop and Chip miniraises with another caller behind. Doyle correctly deduced that Chip has a better hand.

Give Doyle credit, he made a great laydown. He took his time to make the right decision. Chip honestly told him he made a great laydown and what he held.

As most you know, a player doesn't make a lot of money in NLH cash games without making laydowns like this.

Just because other people would struggle making this laydown doesn't mean that 2 top players are colluding.

Re: Doyles Fold Of QQ at the 50k Horse Final Table!
 

Ever heard of Occam's Razor? It's much easier to make such a laydown if you got 50 years of playing poker with partners under your belly than by racking your brain over Bayes hand combinations and the odds for queens to be good on a 7-2-3 offsuit flop when someone makes a min-raise in position.

This was a standard play for both of these guys in their cashgame, but because of TV it got exposed and that's why they both looked so embarrassed making it.

Re: Doyles Fold Of QQ at the 50k Horse Final Table!
 

Someone is reading a lot of Russ Georgiev stories..

Re: Doyles Fold Of QQ at the 50k Horse Final Table!
 

Having Q-Q on a 7-3-2o flop is not a situation you fear in Hold'em, it's a situation that you are waiting for.

Combinations that got you beat:
A-A = 6
K-K = 6
7-7 = 3
3-3 = 3
2-2 = 3
----------
21

Combinations you beat:
8-8 = 6
9-9 = 6
T-T = 6
J-J = 6
A-4s = 4
A-7s = 3
A-3s = 3
A-2s = 3
8-7s = 3
7-6s = 3
5-4s = 4
----------
47

Semibluffs by the chipleader are pretty likely, because the flop figured to have missed all A-x combinations that Doyle might have opened with.

The betting went:
Doyle (720k) raised 70k
Chip (Leader) called 70k
Singer (1200k) called 70k

Doyle (650) raised 220k
Chip (Leader) re-raised 440k
Singer folded

At that point, Doyle had to call 220k to play for 920k = 4:1.

Sure, folding as 2:1 favorite getting 4:1* for your money is the definition of a great laydown after all [img]/images/graemlins/wink.gif[/img]

*If you want to think in terms of stacks rather than bets then he still got 3:1 for his remaining chips.

Re: Doyles Fold Of QQ at the 50k Horse Final Table!
 

I totally agree, I never for one second thought that Doyle made a great laydown. I thought it was softplaying for sure.

Re: Doyles Fold Of QQ at the 50k Horse Final Table!
 

after the hand chip told doyle he had KK, you think he tells him that if they weren't soft playing each other?

Re: Doyles Fold Of QQ at the 50k Horse Final Table!
 

Chips reaction was a little Hollywood to make it look less dubious.

A similar situation occured in the last episode of the PPT when Doyle had aces. I'd even say you can spot the "tell" they give each other.

In any case "softplaying" is probably the best expression for it. I wouldn't go as far to say it's collusion to the disadvantage of a third player. They just don't want to eliminate each other.

Re: Doyles Fold Of QQ at the 50k Horse Final Table!
 

[ QUOTE ]
Having Q-Q on a 7-3-2o flop is not a situation you fear in Hold'em, it's a situation that you are waiting for.

[/ QUOTE ]Until you are min-raised by a player in the worst possible position that is.

[ QUOTE ]
Combinations that got you beat:
A-A = 6
K-K = 6
7-7 = 3
3-3 = 3
2-2 = 3
----------
21

[/ QUOTE ]All of which make sense with the betting.

[ QUOTE ]
Combinations you beat:
8-8 = 6
9-9 = 6
T-T = 6
J-J = 6
A-4s = 4
A-7s = 3
A-3s = 3
A-2s = 3
8-7s = 3
7-6s = 3
5-4s = 4
----------
47

[/ QUOTE ]The ONLY of these that matches the betting is perhaps JJ, and that's pretty dubious. Chip is not calling PF with half these hands, and the ones he is calling with he is not min raising with one player still left to act.

But really, what is the motive for them to collude here? I think most of them are playing for pride more than the money anyway- if so, why cheat?

Re: Doyles Fold Of QQ at the 50k Horse Final Table!
 

[ QUOTE ]
Really disappointed to read the discussion of possible collusion between Doyle & Chip.


[/ QUOTE ]

Just to be clear, my part in the discussion was not about cheating, and I have no opinion on the matter.

It was about a theoretical property, that there can be an implied collusive effect when two players are overly familiar with each other's playing style.

Re: Doyles Fold Of QQ at the 50k Horse Final Table!
 

[ QUOTE ]
Ever heard of Occam's Razor?

[/ QUOTE ]Yeah. Seems to me that the simplest answer here is that Doyle played good poker. I have no doubt he knows how Chip plays because of a lot of experience the two have together. No need to complicate matters by assuming collusion.

But really, what does Chip raise with here that Doyle can beat AND matches the action so far? After all, Doyle on has one pair.

Re: Doyles Fold Of QQ at the 50k Horse Final Table!
 

Who here really cares about busting one of their friends at the poker table, whether it be in a cash game or tournament.
You feel bad about it, not as good as you generally feel though. Either these guys have been colluding for years, or competing for years. I'd have to say competing. Colluding for all those years after accumulating so much wealth would be boring. Clearly people play with them in the big game on a regular basis, no one but Russ G. has ever lodged a complaint or charge.
The fact they have played together for so long, as op. mentioned, gives them an edge they can use against their opposition, squeeze plays etc. Doyle knows Chip doesn't have a hand after he puts the heat on someone else and then he reraises both of them for example.
If you had no idea what neither doyle or chip had, but knew what singer's hand was and the action went the same way then it certainly would look like collusion. You would simply have to take Doyle and Chips word. That one had kk's and one had qq's.
What i see is three guys who all want to be the horse champion and are playing superior poker.

Re: Doyles Fold Of QQ at the 50k Horse Final Table!
 

Yeah, Doyle and Reese are gonna risk their reputation, on TV in front of everyone, and softplay instead of getting more chips to win the tournament that will likely mean more then the main event. I think they'd rather play it optimally and win the title, i'm 100% sure that the title means more to them than the money or anything else including knocking out a friend. idiot.

Re: Doyles Fold Of QQ at the 50k Horse Final Table!
 

the mini raise makes me believe it might have been collusion.

Also the fact that chip reese simply called with kings.

Re: Doyles Fold Of QQ at the 50k Horse Final Table!
 

This whole thread is a joke right? RIGHT?

Re: Doyles Fold Of QQ at the 50k Horse Final Table!
 

I agree. Doyle was going for 11 bracelets to retake the lead over Chan and Hellmuth. Chip was going for a bracelet after his 26 year drought.

I think they both wanted to win.

And yes they play often against each other in cash games and it was mentioned that they have been business partners over the years (such as their unsuccessful attempt to find the Titanic [img]/images/graemlins/frown.gif[/img] ), but don't think any of that would keep them from knocking each other off the table.

Re: Doyles Fold Of QQ at the 50k Horse Final Table!
 

Doyle made a good read the Chip was either slowplaying a monster or had flopped a set. Chip did indeed play the hand very oddly preflop, and on the flop, which aroused suspiscions to Doyle.

Do not forget that all you've seen of the hand is editted footage, and key parts may have been cutout, like the amount of time Doyle thought about the raise before he folded, comments made, etc..

Re: Doyles Fold Of QQ at the 50k Horse Final Table!
 

theres no way they edited out the dialouge between the two

Re: Doyles Fold Of QQ at the 50k Horse Final Table!
 

to think that noone ever has colluded at one of these tables is naive

Re: Doyles Fold Of QQ at the 50k Horse Final Table!
 

We all know that some pros collude, but many of us don't think that Doyle and Chip did it at that table. The bracelet and bragging rights for that event were too important for both of them. The money wasn't.

Re: Doyles Fold Of QQ at the 50k Horse Final Table!
 

[ QUOTE ]
to think that doyle and chip colluded at this final table is retarded

[/ QUOTE ]

Re: Doyles Fold Of QQ at the 50k Horse Final Table!
 

[ QUOTE ]
Ever heard of Occam's Razor?

[/ QUOTE ]Yeah. Seems to me that the simplest answer here is that Doyle played good poker.

[/ QUOTE ]

This depends on your definition of good poker. If someone makes a laydown, because of marked cards, does he play good poker? In a way you may argue that he plays perfect poker, but I would say, he didn't play poker at all.

[ QUOTE ]
I have no doubt he knows how Chip plays because of a lot of experience the two have together. No need to complicate matters by assuming collusion.

[/ QUOTE ]

The odds to get kings are 1:220. That doesn't change, because someones name is Chip. You could only argue that Chip had a tell that gave away his hand and that Doyle knew about it. I fully agree with that, now the question remains, was this tell intentional or unintentional?

[ QUOTE ]
But really, what does Chip raise with here that Doyle can beat AND matches the action so far? After all, Doyle on has one pair.

[/ QUOTE ]

Chip would have made the very same play with any top pair hand like A-7s, 8-7s, 7-6s or an overpair like J-J, T-T, 9-9, 8-8. Those are all very likely hands for calling a raise pre-flop, especially since Doyle's raise of just 10% of his stack priced them all in.

You shouldn't forget that Chip's play would have been very strong and very reasonable against hands like A-K or A-Q and those were very likely holdings for Doyle to open the pot.

If you remember Bloch's comment on the question what the other card was, he said "it was probably an ace"...

Re: Doyles Fold Of QQ at the 50k Horse Final Table!
 

[ QUOTE ]
Chip would have made the very same play with any top pair hand like A-7s, 8-7s, 7-6s or an overpair like J-J, T-T, 9-9, 8-8. Those are all very likely hands for calling a raise pre-flop, especially since Doyle's raise of just 10% of his stack priced them all in.

[/ QUOTE ]Chip would not have called with Axs hands PF. Those are not good hands to play without position, and since he's not on the button it is near impossibly to call profitably.

And Chip does not min raise to protect his hand with a small pair after the flop (he bets bigger). The only hands that he plays this way are sets and overpairs. JJ MIGHT be a possiblity, but no way he plays 88-TT like this.