help on turn please
 

opponent is 42/12/1 over a couple of orbits
I need to go to showdown more, so i am tryign to find spopts when to go there, is this one of those spots?

PokerStars 2/4 Hold'em (4 handed) Hand History Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com (Format: 2+2 Forums)

Preflop: Hero is Button with A[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], K[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img].
<font color="#666666">1 fold</font>, <font color="#CC3333">Hero raises</font>, <font color="#666666">1 fold</font>, <font color="#CC3333">BB 3-bets</font>, <font color="#CC3333">Hero caps</font>, BB calls.

Flop: (8.50 SB) 7[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], 2[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], 6[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
BB checks, <font color="#CC3333">Hero bets</font>, <font color="#CC3333">BB raises</font>, Hero calls.

Turn: (6.25 BB) 3[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
<font color="#CC3333">BB bets</font>, HERO!?

Re: help on turn please
 

Call, fold river unimproved.

Re: help on turn please
 

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Call, fold river unimproved.

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thanx man [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]

Re: help on turn please
 

I'd fold the turn.

Re: help on turn please
 

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I'd fold the turn.

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also good [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]

Re: help on turn please
 

Folding the flop is best imo. You represented a big pocket pair and he said "give me your damn money". This is AA/KK way too often.

Re: help on turn please
 

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Folding the flop is best imo. You represented a big pocket pair and he said "give me your damn money". This is AA/KK way too often.

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I almost never fold flop here, am I wrong?

Re: help on turn please
 

You can't fold the flop getting 11.5:1 when his range still probably includes 88-QQ as well as KK AA (Or maybe an oddly played AK or AQ or something). I will fold the turn normally UI against someone who seems to be slighly passive post flop.

Re: help on turn please
 

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You can't fold the flop getting 11.5:1 when his range still probably includes 88-QQ as well as KK AA (Or maybe an oddly played AK or AQ or something). I will fold the turn normally UI against someone who seems to be slighly passive post flop.

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Correct. Folding the flop sucks. This is a blind steal spot and villian often has a pair where you have 6 outs to.

Re: help on turn please
 

I'm giving up on the turn. While a loose player, he is not a crazy man preflop raiser. With his normal lack of aggression and showing it here, I would fold the turn and live to fight another day; however, like you said, I wouldn't be ready to give up on the flop.

But unimproved on the turn... save your big bets for a better spot.

Re: help on turn please
 

I'd fold the turn

Re: help on turn please
 

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I'd fold the turn

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Re: help on turn please
 

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Call, fold river unimproved.

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I like this line best...

Re: help on turn please
 

I rarely cap this hand HU and against a 42/12 3-betting in the blinds AK has got to be at the bottom of his range.

Re: help on turn please
 

villian his range can be hugh, he could easily have something like A5/KT/whatever I def. call the turn and might just call river ui.

Re: help on turn please
 

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Call, fold river unimproved.

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I like this line best...

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I don't. I'm either folding the turn or seeing a showdown.

Re: help on turn please
 

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I don't. I'm either folding the turn or seeing a showdown.

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I agree. If you call on the turn it must be because you think there is a slim chance you hold the best hand therefore you need to showdown.

Re: help on turn please
 

I think turn is an easy call and the main decision will come on the river.

Re: help on turn please
 

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Folding the flop is best imo. You represented a big pocket pair and he said "give me your damn money". This is AA/KK way too often.

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Have you noticed that this is a steal situation?

Re: help on turn please
 

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You can't fold the flop getting 11.5:1 when his range still probably includes 88-QQ as well as KK AA (Or maybe an oddly played AK or AQ or something). I will fold the turn normally UI against someone who seems to be slighly passive post flop.

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His range can definitely include AJ, ATs, KQ, KQs, KJs. Come on people, this a steal situation, his range can include top 50% of all hands!

Re: help on turn please
 

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I think turn is an easy call and the main decision will come on the river.

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Why call the turn and not the river? Do you mean you would fold if the river was any broadway other than A or K of course?

And if you fold the river, that means you think you're basically beat on the turn and are drawing to your 6-outer on the river which you don't have the odds for.

Re: help on turn please
 

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His range can definitely include AJ, ATs, KQ, KQs, KJs. Come on people, this a steal situation, his range can include top 50% of all hands!

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Preflop, yes. But not when he checkraises the flop. He now has a set or pocket pair.

Re: help on turn please
 

There's no reason to cap preflop. You have no one to knock out and your a 56 to 44 dog to any pocket pair except AA or KK when your a 90 to 10 dog.

On the flop, I would be suspicious of BB's check and would consider checking this through and hoping to hit a King or Ace.

His check/raise indicates a pocket pair. Note there is no flush draw and it seems unlikely he would have 3Bet 98 or even 98s giving him an OESD.

Agaisnt a pocket pair your a 3:1 dog unless he has AA, KK or made a set in which case your practically dead. If he would 3 bet preflop with any pocket pair there are five of them that have you almost dead and 8 of them that leave you 3:1.

Lets just assume your completely dead for ease of calculation 5/13 of the time. Then 8/13 of the time you have a 25% chance to draw out. But thats with 2 cards to come. You will have to call another bet on the turn.

Your chance of making your hand on the next card is about 12.5% or 7:1. Since this will only be good 8/13 of the time anyway, your chances of winning if it comes are 8/13 x .125 = .077 or about 13:1.

Therefore, as played, getting 11:1: Fold to the flop checkraise, although a peel is close. Note that if you had not capped preflop, you would have been getting only 9:1 and you could have easily gotten away from your longshot hand.

<u> Alternately </u>

If you think BB would only 3Bet with 99 and up, you are almost dead to 2 hands and a 7:1 dog with one card to come for 4 hands.

That makes the calculation 4/6 .125 = .08 and your about a 12.5:1 dog against his range. It works almost the same, your just a fraction better.

Note if BB would 3Bet only 66 and up, your dead to 4 hands and 7:1 against 5 hands. Your chances are even worse. And 88 (or 55 if we throw that in, also gives BB BDSD chances.)

Conclusion: Peeling the flop is marginal at best.


(The TURN is a fold, even though the pot has been inflated quite a bit to this point.)

Re: help on turn please
 

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Preflop, yes. But not when he checkraises the flop. He now has a set or pocket pair.

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Lawl

I will expand on my earlier comment. being that this is 2/4, the turn should probably be a fold. At a higher limit and/or a more aggressive opponent, I would call down.

Re: help on turn please
 

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There's no reason to cap preflop. You have no one to knock out and your a 56 to 44 dog to any pocket pair except AA or KK when your a 90 to 10 dog.


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But couldn't villain be raising a worse ace (AQ,AJ,AT maybe) and maybe even a hand like KQs since it is a blind battle so do we not want to cap preflop to extract maximum value if we are dominating him?

Re: help on turn please
 

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There's no reason to cap preflop. You have no one to knock out and your a 56 to 44 dog to any pocket pair except AA or KK when your a 90 to 10 dog.

[/ QUOTE ]But couldn't villain be raising a worse ace (AQ,AJ,AT maybe) and maybe even a hand like KQs since it is a blind battle so do we not want to cap preflop to extract maximum value if we are dominating him?

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If he has one of those hands then yes a cap is good. But you don't know if he has that or a pocket pair which makes you a dog. It's not that big a deal and going either way is probably OK. If you know what BB's three betting habits were against a Button Steal, it might help swing the decision one way or the other.

Some things you know are BB has some kind of good hand, you have a good but not made hand, there are no blinds to knock out or to help pad the pot with underdog money, and capping is not going to win the pot right there.

Re: help on turn please
 

lol at people listening to TomBrooks and not me.

Re: help on turn please
 

I just thought of something else.

With a set, BB might be likely to c/c the flop and go for a checkraise on the turn. So lets figure his most likely hands are 99-AA.

Peel the flop is good.

Still fold the turn. A call here is only marginal if he has 99-QQ. Add the chances he has AA, KK or a set and the turn is an easy fold.

Re: help on turn please
 

scary, are you advocating the turn call river fold because you don't expect someone with those stats to bet the river with less than a pair after being called on the f+t?

Re: help on turn please
 

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I think turn is an easy call and the main decision will come on the river.

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Why call the turn and not the river? Do you mean you would fold if the river was any broadway other than A or K of course?

And if you fold the river, that means you think you're basically beat on the turn and are drawing to your 6-outer on the river which you don't have the odds for.

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I am not in the "if you call the turn, you have to call the river" camp. We do have the odds to call on the turn, plus if I hit, I am raising. Often, he'll check the river and our A is good.

Re: help on turn please
 

Scary, can you elaborate on the turn call please?

If not, a PT Screenshot of "I won 80k in 300 hands" is ok too.

Re: help on turn please
 

Odds to hit a 6 outer on the river: 7.666:1

Pot odds being offered now: 7.25:1

We do not have odds to see the river. Maybe implied odds.

Re: help on turn please
 

We're in position so at least one bet will go in on the river 100% of the time that Villain has a pair. Sometimes Villain won't have a pair and will check the river and we'll win or split. Very very frequently Villain will have a pair and we'll win two bets on the river. Occasionally we'll hit and lose one-three bets depending on river card/action.

Re: help on turn please
 

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Odds to hit a 6 outer on the river: 7.666:1
Pot odds being offered now: 7.25:1
We do not have odds to see the river. Maybe implied odds.

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That's if you have 6 outs. You won't always have six outs so some discount would give you a more accurate assessment for your decision.

Re: help on turn please
 

So sightless,
What did you do? What happened?

Re: help on turn please
 

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So sightless,
What did you do? What happened?

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I folded [img]/images/graemlins/blush.gif[/img]