Big hand vs. Allen Cunningham
 

WPT Niagra event.

This hand took place in the first hand of the 800/1600 level (300 ante.) There are 120 people left and the average stack is 80k. Top 45 get paid but there wasn't any real money to be made if you do not final table.

Cunningham has been playing unbelieveably tight and was sitting on 175k in chips after he doubled up on a flopped set 2 hours ago. He has not loosened up since he got the big stack.

Cunningham has never defended his big blind (even when it was minraised preflop) during the 6 hours that I have played with him. I have stolen his blinds twice (both times that it was folded to me in the cutoff) without a fight. As far as I know AC has not floated a bet all tournament. If he calls then he has something with some showdown value. My table image is pretty tight, the only out of line play that I made was a correct call for all of my chips with 2nd pair when the villain open shoved/over bet the turn.

Hero has 75k
AC has 175k

Preflop:

There is 5400 in the pot to start the hand with blinds and antes

Hero is dealt K[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] 7[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] in the CO

Folded to hero who raises to 4000 (I only raised this little because AC was the BB and would fold to a min raise,) 2 folds, AC calls.

The call meant that AC has a pocket pair, suited ace, big ace, or KQ

Flop (7800) A[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] 9[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] 3[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]
AC checks, hero bets 6000, AC calls

I am 98% confident that AC would fold any pocket pair or KQ to my flop bet. AC is NOT floating me here. He has an ace, 2 pair or a set. He is folding a mid pocket pair

Turn (19,800): 8[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]
Cunningham leads for 15,000. Hero hesitates for at most 2 seconds and shoves for 50k more.

At the time I put Cunningham's lead as a bet to take the pot down with an AJ/AQ type hand. I think that he was willing to call a turn bet but then would be lost on the river so he led out to see if his hand was good because he did not want me to 3 barrel him with his having no additional information. Of course, his lead could have been 2 pair or a set but the last time that he had a set (he was in position) he played it slowly until the river when he shoved. I think that he could lay down 2 pair - although he might have me on AK - or even a set because I had such a tight image, but because he had so many chips I am not sure how often he would be able to muck 999 since he had chips to play with. I definitely had his range weighted heavily toward AQ-type hands because he is only defending with A8/A9 if they are suited and even then he might still fold pf

Re: Big hand vs. Allen Cunningham
 

Sorry this hand seems totally absurd to me, when you put him on such a ridiculous tight range facing an open cutoff min steal raise with all these antes in the pot.

Re: Big hand vs. Allen Cunningham
 

CF,
I really dont mind your play. The reason i dont mind it is that your ranges for AC are way out of whack.

Re: Big hand vs. Allen Cunningham
 

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Sorry this hand seems totally absurd to me, when you put him on such a ridiculous tight range facing an open cutoff min steal raise with all these antes in the pot.

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Because over the first 6 hours of the day he has redefined the term 'nit.' He has played less than 5% of the hands including those where people min bet against his blinds.

These were my reads at the time; he could have been card dead for 6 hours but I think that my evaluation of his play is accurate. The read could have certaintly been incorrect but if there was one player at the table who I was studying closely the entire day it was Cunningham. He was the big stack at the table all day and I wanted to be careful to get any information that I could on his play since he was in position against me. I watched everything that he did on every hand and this was my read

Re: Big hand vs. Allen Cunningham
 

I think the turn push is OK. I don't mind a fold, as you don't have much at this point, and you don't have to win every pot.

I also think it is a mistake to put a strong player on a tight range here, even if he has played tightly.

Re: Big hand vs. Allen Cunningham
 

why would you get caught up with a marginal hand against a super tight super strong player who is also a huge stack. at what point do you go away. he has shown strength and you have professed his nittiness. fold the turn. the shove is a poor play imo.

Re: Big hand vs. Allen Cunningham
 

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why would you get caught up with a marginal hand against a super tight super strong player who is also a huge stack. at what point do you go away. he has shown strength and you have professed his nittiness. fold the turn. the shove is a poor play imo.

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Against player X, the push is an OK semibluff. However, given AC is a very strong player playing supertight, I think a fold is better.

Re: Big hand vs. Allen Cunningham
 

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I am not sure how often he would be able to muck 999

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... absolutely never?

Re: Big hand vs. Allen Cunningham
 

This must be how AC gets all the chips he does. He just waits for someone to snap and try to bluff "that super tight nit."

If he has a weak ace I think he'd c/c turn wa/wb. He wouldn't want to swell the pot. If he's donking turn it's probably because he wants to make the pot bigger because he has a real strong hand.

Re: Big hand vs. Allen Cunningham
 

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AC is NOT floating me here. He has an ace, 2 pair or a set. He is folding a mid pocket pair

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Cunningham leads for 15,000. Hero hesitates for at most 2 seconds and shoves for 50k more

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What?? You put him on a big hand so you shove the turn on just a draw. And your logic makes no sense either.

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I am not sure how often he would be able to muck 999

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LOL

Re: Big hand vs. Allen Cunningham
 

The only way he's folding any set here is if he is prone to seizures.

And has one between the time you bet and him calling.

Re: Big hand vs. Allen Cunningham
 

[ QUOTE ]
This must be how AC gets all the chips he does. He just waits for someone to snap and try to bluff "that super tight nit."

If he has a weak ace I think he'd c/c turn wa/wb. He wouldn't want to swell the pot. If he's donking turn it's probably because he wants to make the pot bigger because he has a real strong hand.

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This is what I am wondering about. What is AC doing with AQ/AJ in this spot? I do not think that he is c/cing and then check/folding the river unimproved but I don't think that he is calling 3 barrels with 1 pair weak kicker either. I don't think that he is check/folding the turn with AJ/AQ which means that the only option left for him on the turn is bet/fold.

If I have his range on 99, 33, AK, AQ, AJ, ATs, A9s, A8s, A3s (AA is not possible he is reraising that pf, A3s is discounted) and if he is folding all but 99, 33, maybe A9/A8/A3 then he will be folding this hand to me more often than not and there is a lot of dead money in this pot that would mean a lot to my stack... And when he does call, I have outs.

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I am not sure how often he would be able to muck 999

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This comment was made to accentuate how tight he has been playing. Yes, it was a bit of lvl 2 sarcasm. I will reserve such comments for BBV and HSNL in the future. Of course he is instacalling with the 2nd nuts here but the way that he was playing I do think that he is mucking two pair some percentage of the time greater than 0 as I have represented non stop strength with my hand.

What do you think that AC is putting me on?

Re: Big hand vs. Allen Cunningham
 

AC is never folding a hand better than 1 pair here.

Re: Big hand vs. Allen Cunningham
 

Why can't AC c/c turn and then c/f river with AJ? He has to c/c turn in order to get to the river to then see if you'll 3 barrell before he can "know" that his AJ isn't good. He might even call a 3rd barrell I don't know. But I don't see why you say he can't c/c turn then c/f river. He isn't some donk that gets married to pots and top pair.

Re: Big hand vs. Allen Cunningham
 

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Why can't AC c/c turn and then c/f river with AJ?

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He could do this but I think that it is an inferior play to leading the turn and I thought that he would also think that it was an inferior play.

Because I think so highly of his game I am assuming that he would not make what might be an inferior play here.

As I said before, this was my thought process at the time and I thought he was betting a mid ace and I was very confident that if that was what he had that he would fold it. I also thought he could fold 2 pair but I am not sure that he would fold it.

I think this was a very interesting hand because of the range that I had Cunningham on and am hoping that this could become an insightful thread

Re: Big hand vs. Allen Cunningham
 

I don't think the push is awful here. I'm just a bit worried about your thoughts behind it as I get the impression from your original post that part of the reason behind your push was giving him such a tight range and thinking he could fold two pair or even some sets here. There is almost zero chance of this happening.

-ActionBob

Re: Big hand vs. Allen Cunningham
 

It's tricky b/c the line AC takes is often indicative of either a)a mediocre hand that wants to take down the pot and/or find out it's good or b)a strong hand that wants to get more money in or confound hero into making a mistake.
So I don't hate it. You fold the mediocre hands that beat you, and you still have outs vs. the better hands. If someone has a range for this line and they can plug it in, you could find out for sure.

Re: Big hand vs. Allen Cunningham
 

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It's tricky b/c the line AC takes is often indicative of either a)a mediocre hand that wants to take down the pot and/or find out it's good or b)a strong hand that wants to get more money in or confound hero into making a mistake.
So I don't hate it. You fold the mediocre hands that beat you, and you still have outs vs. the better hands. If someone has a range for this line and they can plug it in, you could find out for sure.

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if he does not fold then I am in for a wold of hurt... but I think that he will fold AK, AQ, AJ, AT, A7s, A6s, A5s, A4s, some if not all 2 pair combos. I think that A7s-A4s should be discounted because he is less likely to have them preflop but if that is the case then the 2 pair combos are also less likely. I think that AK should be slightly discounted because of the times that he would reraise me preflop.

Given these assumptions my fold equity makes this a worthwhile

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Board: Ah 8c 9d 3c

equity (%) win (%)
Hand 1: 17.1457 % 17.15% { Kc7c }
Hand 2: 82.8543 % 82.85% { 88, 33, A3s+, ATo+ }

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Re: Big hand vs. Allen Cunningham
 

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I am not sure how often he would be able to muck 999

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... absolutely never?

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Re: Big hand vs. Allen Cunningham
 

Fiji --

I had the pleasure of playing with Allen for quite a while this summer. I would bet a lot of money that you completely misinterpreted his play and his ranges. "Over a small sample a world-class player hasn't called much. Therefore if I minraise his big blind he won't call with hardly anything."

I could point out any of very many statements in your OP that are nowhere near correct -- Cunningham would fold AQ preflop to the minraise? He would lead the turn because he wouldn't know what to do on the river? -- but it would miss the point; you could not have done a worse job of understanding your opponent or interpreting information at the table.

--Nate

Re: Big hand vs. Allen Cunningham
 

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Sorry this hand seems totally absurd to me, when you put him on such a ridiculous tight range facing an open cutoff min steal raise with all these antes in the pot.

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Because over the first 6 hours of the day he has redefined the term 'nit.' He has played less than 5% of the hands including those where people min bet against his blinds.

These were my reads at the time; he could have been card dead for 6 hours but I think that my evaluation of his play is accurate. The read could have certaintly been incorrect but if there was one player at the table who I was studying closely the entire day it was Cunningham. He was the big stack at the table all day and I wanted to be careful to get any information that I could on his play since he was in position against me. I watched everything that he did on every hand and this was my read

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Fiji --

See above.

Another bizarre and completely untenable facet of your analysis is that you seem to think that Cunningham is unaware of the fact that you have seen him fold a lot in the last six hours.

--Nate

Re: Big hand vs. Allen Cunningham
 

No top pro folds AQ to a miniraise from CO. I don't know much about AC's play except what I saw on PPV. However, I think OP is making a mistake by looking at a tight top pro as a weak/tight nit. AC probably was card dead and was adapting his play to the situation. Sometimes LAGs underestimate tight players. Also, it seems like OP is being egotistical by thinking he has a read on a top player and his weaknesses.

Re: Big hand vs. Allen Cunningham
 

Cornell, here's a hint for playing against elite players. Be honest with yourself about what level you appear to be thinking on in the eyes of other players. Now add one level to that, and that is what level AC is probably thinking at. You seem to imply that AC is some kind of robotic, formulaic, weak/tight/nit that just looks at his cards and the board. LOL

Shoving may be good on the turn, I don't know. But your reasons for deciding it is are way out of whack.

Re: Big hand vs. Allen Cunningham
 

the guy won a world series event against 2700 people, FT the main event, player of the year at world series of poker 2005. you dont do that by being a weak tight nit.

What he probably does is use his super tight image to make plays and get alot of folds. He concedes his blind alot. The times he does defend its probably instafolds.
How was the table playing tons of super aggressive lags? He could have been playing tight just because of table dynamics. dont know.

Re: Big hand vs. Allen Cunningham
 

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Cornell, here's a hint for playing against elite players. Be honest with yourself about what level you appear to be thinking on in the eyes of other players. Now add one level to that, and that is what level AC is probably thinking at. You seem to imply that AC is some kind of robotic, formulaic, weak/tight/nit that just looks at his cards and the board. LOL

Shoving may be good on the turn, I don't know. But your reasons for deciding it is are way out of whack.

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Indeed.

I also forgot to mention a third hilarious thing about the OP, which is that as stated it's a very simple math problem with some long exposition and name-dropping added for flair. Of course the premises of the math problem are comical, but that's all it is.

I'm concerned I spent too much time bashing the OP without giving advice here.

I think the shove might be good, but because it gives you a chance to fold out a bare 9 or something like that. You can't think you're folding out two pair or better with this push -- this is a steal-defense situation and folding such a hand can't be justified on this board. Your hand should look like (often) AQ+ and (less often) some draw you picked up on the turn, but there probably won't be enough of the latter to allow him to call with 97 or whatnot.

Still, if I were in your shoes and had somehow played the hand as you did until then, I'm folding the turn, because I don't think he'll pay off enough on the river if I hit (though I think there's a decent chance my K is good) and because I think that there are just a few too many hands he isn't folding in his range.

--Nate

Re: Big hand vs. Allen Cunningham
 

Why hasn't anyone even considered what hand ranges AC is putting me on here?

Isn't that really the crux of the argument... if my range is ahead of his hand he should fold, if not he should call. Keeping in mind that he is very risk adverse and if the decission is borderline then he will fold.

So here is the hand from his point of view...


A tight player who has done nothing out of line for 6 hours miniraises preflop to 4,000. Allen knows that i know he has been weak with his blinds.

Allen has me on what range after my pfr?
I would suppose he has me on a pretty wide range from a slowplayed big pair to AK to A3s to complete garbage


The flop comes down A[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] 8[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] 3[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]
Allen checks and I bet 6k
I make a standard continuation bet against a tight player so Allen might think that I am trying to take the pot down with any two that I preflop raised with

The turn is 9[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]
Allen bets 15k and I go all in.

What does AC think about my range now? The one time that I made an all in call earlier it took me 3 minutes to reach my decission and I have not done anything out of line all tournament. He knows that I know that he has been tight and he probably thinks that this is the level that I am thinking on

I think that I know what he has my range at after the push but I am interested in hearing what you all think that he thinks that I have after my push.

Put yourself in Allen's shoes. Both you and the villain (me) have been tight for 6 hours and on this hand you have shown strength and the villain has shown complete disregard for your strength and has come over the top for his tournament life. What do you have the villain on?

Re: Big hand vs. Allen Cunningham
 

Did you push all in quickly?

Re: Big hand vs. Allen Cunningham
 

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Did you push all in quickly?

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Yes, hesitated for about 2 seconds (while I hesitated I quickly counted down one stack of 20 1k chips, lined it next to the next 20k stack and the purple 10k stack and verbally announced "all in")

Re: Big hand vs. Allen Cunningham
 

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Did you push all in quickly?

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Yes, hesitated for about 2 seconds (while I hesitated I quickly counted down one stack of 20 1k chips, lined it next to the next 20k stack and the purple 10k stack and verbally announced "all in")

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As a matter of interest, what would it say to you if a tight player pushed all in that fast on that board?

Re: Big hand vs. Allen Cunningham
 

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As a matter of interest, what would it say to you if a tight player pushed all in that fast on that board?

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I would think that he had a very strong hand that would not like a lot of river cards.

Set, top 2 pair, maybe A[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]X[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]. Since I had not been out of line so far I do not think that he thought that I was on a bluff or just at draw. I had taken a long time on my marginal all in call and he probably thought that I was risk adverse therefore I thought that my quick push showed a lot of confidence in my hand.

I do not think that there was any chance that he thought that I had lone clubs with my quick all-in.

Re: Big hand vs. Allen Cunningham
 

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Why hasn't anyone even considered what hand ranges AC is putting me on here?

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Read my last post again.

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Isn't that really the crux of the argument... if my range is ahead of his hand he should fold, if not he should call.

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After taking into account the price the pot is giving him, right?

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Keeping in mind that he is very risk adverse and if the decission is borderline then he will fold.

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Nope. I mean, he's making proper tournament adjustments, but I can promise you he doesn't pray to the God of Finding a Better Spot Later.

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Put yourself in Allen's shoes. Both you and the villain (me) have been tight for 6 hours and on this hand you have shown strength and the villain has shown complete disregard for your strength

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You minraised and made a small flop bet. Then you made one big bet. That doesn't count as "complete disregard."

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and has come over the top for his tournament life. What do you have the villain on?

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Cunningham knows what he can and can't do with a 150-hand sample size (though he can do more than most with it). I think that you are first a young guy who made a quick all-in on a turn that put a lot of backdoor draws up, and only secondarily a guy who hasn't been caught out of line recently. As far as physical information goes, after that board and turn card and type of pause and verbal all-in, I would take whatever hand weightings I'd come up with and shift them toward draws and bluffs and scared hands and away from monsters.

The board is ace-high with some draws and the effective stacks are forty big blinds in a blind-steal situation. Do not try to induce big laydowns. If I'm in Cunningham's spot -- and this is all heavily dependent on a bunch of things -- I think my baseline calling range is AQ+. Against a typical live player this tightens a bit, but that's my starting point.

--Nate

Re: Big hand vs. Allen Cunningham
 

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The board is ace-high with some draws and the effective stacks are forty big blinds in a blind-steal situation. Do not try to induce big laydowns. If I'm in Cunningham's spot -- and this is all heavily dependent on a bunch of things -- I think my baseline calling range is AQ+. Against a typical live player this tightens a bit, but that's my starting point.

--Nate

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The board is A983. AC is in the BB against a CO raise. He probably reraises AA/AK, and may reraise AQ/88/99. If his calling range is AQ+, you probably have a good semibluff, because he won't be able to call that often.

I think OP played this hand fine. On the river, he could call or fold rather than push.

However, I would not put AC on a tight range. I saw AC's play on PPV, and he didn't seem like a nit. He probably wasn't getting cards and the action was a little wild.

I certainly would atleast call the miniraise in the BB with any pp, any suited ace, most suited connectors/gappers and most two cards 9 or higher. He could also have a read that OP is stealing and call with less with the intention of making a move like he did.

I think there is a good chance AC called preflop with trash or missed the flop and is making a move, which makes the push a reasonable play. If AC had a big hand on the turn, he probably would play for a checkraise. Therefore, the push may be a good play.

Re: Big hand vs. Allen Cunningham
 

Tangential question:
Obviously this is dependant on several factors, but against a pro who is great at reading people, what is more indicative of a monster hand?

Feel free to reply how you voted and why

Re: Big hand vs. Allen Cunningham
 

i think there are about 5-6 people whose opinion on your poll i'd at all care about.

Re: Big hand vs. Allen Cunningham
 

I would take the time to think it over and decide it was better not to bluff off all my chips against a top pro who is great at reading people.

Re: Big hand vs. Allen Cunningham
 

Well said, Betgo.

I believe most pros get a lot of chips from people bluffing into them, not from bluffing people off hands (other then in the right situations obv).

Re: Big hand vs. Allen Cunningham
 

[ QUOTE ]
I would take the time to think it over and decide it was better not to bluff off all my chips against a top pro who is great at reading people.
---------------
I believe most pros get a lot of chips from people bluffing into them, not from bluffing people off hands (other then in the right situations obv).

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I am young and therefore have no fear. I think that this helps me in several aspects of my live game and hinders me in other parts.

I think that I am good at giving off false tells and since AC does not know me, my false tells will be all that he has to go on if he does have a marginal call that is going to come down to that.

In reality, I think that since he does not know me his decission to fold will be based on the fact that I have played my hand like a set

Given my reads I think Pf and flop are completely standard.

Now on the turn I can fold, having a 65k stack or push and roll the dice that AC mucks and I have a 100k stack. Clearly I am in a much better shape with this big stack as the blinds are big enough for me to open up a bit and start applying pressure once I am a big stack.

On the other hand, if my read that he will fold is wrong and he calls then I am out of the tournament 88% of the time.

After hours of conservative play I think that my feerlessness has the potential to give me a big stack and big tournament advantage here. This is the right situation for a bluff.

Re: Big hand vs. Allen Cunningham
 

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Sorry this hand seems totally absurd to me for a WORLD CLASS PRO, when you put him on such a ridiculous tight range facing an open cutoff min steal raise with all these antes in the pot.

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Re: Big hand vs. Allen Cunningham
 

Also I like the shove even with a more realstic range.

Re: Big hand vs. Allen Cunningham
 

whenever u post it just makes me want to search for porn online