Helmuth - Ferguson Head Up Match Theory Question
 

I'm posting this because it is indirectly related to my Arnold Snyder post and many of the replies.

A couple of years ago the NBC Head Up Holdem Event came down to Phil Helmuth and Chris Ferguson. And the finals was the best two out of three. Helmuth won the first match and during the second match the announcer said something about how Phil can be a little more reckless with a one match lead.

So here is my question, regarding head up, no limit holdem, freeze out matches only.

Say you are in a position where you win the "championship" as soon as you win just one more out of a series of head up identical size freezouts against a player you have already beaten, know well, and who is an opponent who will not alter his own play based on the "standings". Let's say that you have five opportunities to win this one match. (As opposed to the two opportunities Helmuth had. I'm increasing it to five to highlight the points better.)

Given the above, in which of the following ways would you tend to alter your play as compared to how you would play if it was simply a one match championship?

Play tighter preflop

Play looser preflop

Make your value bets bigger/smaller

Bluff more/less

Semi-bluff more/less

Be more/less inclined to call very big bets or get involved with big pots

Any other adjustments you care to name.

For the sake of this question we will assume that both you and your opponent are tough players of approximately equal skill and playing styles.

I will return in a few days with my own answer after thinking about it a little more.

Also PLEASE DO NOT PROVIDE AN EXPLANATION FOR YOUR ANSWER. DO NOT. It will have an influence on other posters and for the time being I do not want anybody to be influenced by anyone else. I mean for this to not only be a strategy question but also a poll of sorts.

Re: Helmuth - Ferguson Head Up Match Theory Question
 

In most cases, you should make no adjustments to your strategy.

Re: Helmuth - Ferguson Head Up Match Theory Question
 

In this situation, I would play more aggressive.

Re: Helmuth - Ferguson Head Up Match Theory Question
 

Intuitively, I'm thinking to play a bit more aggressive than before, and perhaps loosen it a bit more.

Re: Helmuth - Ferguson Head Up Match Theory Question
 

I'd say play tighter preflop, make smaller value bets, bluff & semibluff less, and be less inclined to get involved in big pots.

Re: Helmuth - Ferguson Head Up Match Theory Question
 

I'd make no adjustment to my play.

Re: Helmuth - Ferguson Head Up Match Theory Question
 

In theory I would not adjust my play.

In practice I probably would get a bit more sloppy, having several lives left will likely result in me loosing some of my focus.

Re: Helmuth - Ferguson Head Up Match Theory Question
 

same preflop hand selection, but, more aggressive, more inclined to create big pots.

Re: Helmuth - Ferguson Head Up Match Theory Question
 

No adjustment

Re: Helmuth - Ferguson Head Up Match Theory Question
 

Depends on the first blind level.

Re: Helmuth - Ferguson Head Up Match Theory Question
 

[ QUOTE ]
I'd make no adjustment to my play.

[/ QUOTE ]

Re: Helmuth - Ferguson Head Up Match Theory Question
 

In this scenario, being more aggressive seems like the best strategy. The reason that being uber-aggressive all the time isn't always wisest, in part, is because of variance. This scenario is essentially permitting us to have less variance while our opponent is under its normal duress-if he loses once, he's gone. But if we make a semi-bluff for all our chips and it doesn't work out, we're still in for another match. So the situations that arise, for instance, where we can either fold him out in a big pot, or get our money in as a 2:1 dog at worst, are to our advantage to pursue. Pursuing these situations via playing more hands pf, value betting big (betting everything big--semi-bluffs, bluffs, nuts, definite value, perhaps even marginal value) will create a very loose-aggressive image where our opponent will necessarily and correctly adjust and play more loosely himself. Creating a higher variance match up is our goal, since we have more chances to get lucky/trap him.

Re: Helmuth - Ferguson Head Up Match Theory Question
 

I'd be willing to gamble alot more ie take more conflip situations and be willing to semibluff alot more. Since you need to win 1 out of 5, you can get it all in with hands with 30% equity or better.

So my main adjustment would be a more semi-bluffing and more "reckless" play. We can afford to take 2-1 shots without fear as we still have more attempts to win.

Re: Helmuth - Ferguson Head Up Match Theory Question
 

The biggest adjustment is likely to come from the opponent who has to sweep the next 5 games to stay alive. He'd most likely tighten up, in which I'd try to steal more. But if he feels loose and desperate, I'd play a little tighter. But playing as well as possible to counter my opponents' style is how I'd always like to play (although sometimes I don't). So I'd say play like always, and make adjustments like always in response to the opposition. Optimal play is optimal play.

Re: Helmuth - Ferguson Head Up Match Theory Question
 

___Early blind levels_______

Play tighter preflop
Make your value bets smaller
Bluff less
Semi-bluff less
Be less inclined to call very big bets or get involved with big pots

_____Higher Blind Levels___

Play looser preflop
Make your value bets smaller
Bluff more
Semi-bluff more
Be less inclined to call very big bets or get involved with big pots

Re: Helmuth - Ferguson Head Up Match Theory Question
 

Your assumption that our opponent will not adjust his play given the standings is not realistic.

Re: Helmuth - Ferguson Head Up Match Theory Question
 

I would tighten up somewhat and avoid large, costly mistakes. I would play in a way that might not maximize my win rate but would lower my variance.

So I generally disagree with those announcers.

Re: Helmuth - Ferguson Head Up Match Theory Question
 

I would definately be willing to put my opponent into more uncomfortable spots and trying to force them into making mistakes that I can profit from. Knowing that if I make a mistake I may still have chips and another chance to win the series is a big boost to my strategy allowing myself to play many more hands where I dont wait around for the nuts or second nuts to win. I'm not saying that this would allow me more to donk off chips with second pair or draws but it would allow me to recover more from mistakes and try to force my opponent into making mistakes himself.

Re: Helmuth - Ferguson Head Up Match Theory Question
 

No change in strategy.

Re: Helmuth - Ferguson Head Up Match Theory Question
 

If I got five bullets and my opponent has only one, I would move in with any ace and try to play every coinflip for the maximum amount of chips. My all-in calling requirements would be something like any pair and anything 17 or better (although that's just a wild guess for the first approximation).

Once I lost let's say the first two of these shootouts I would start to switch down gears one by one and if I manage to lose the first four, I would be back to my normal game for the last match although that's not easy to define, because we are talkin NL where everything is in a state of flux. Maybe back to my normal risk level would be the better expression.

In a nutshell: I'd play like Gus Hansen

Re: Helmuth - Ferguson Head Up Match Theory Question
 

It's dependent on the opponent, history, image, HU tendencies, feel out the first few hands.

Then it's attack, attack, attack.

Re: Helmuth - Ferguson Head Up Match Theory Question
 

I would not change my strategy at all.

Re: Helmuth - Ferguson Head Up Match Theory Question
 

[ QUOTE ]
Your assumption that our opponent will not adjust his play given the standings is not realistic.

[/ QUOTE ]

If I were the opponent, I would not change my strategy either.

Re: Helmuth - Ferguson Head Up Match Theory Question
 

Basically the whole question is based on an assumption that seems contradicting to me.

If someone is changing his strategy, this will also change his expectation. From then on he is playing either better or worse than his opponent. I don't see how we can use the term "equal skill" in this scenario.

Re: Helmuth - Ferguson Head Up Match Theory Question *DELETED*
 

Post deleted by Megenoita

Re: Helmuth - Ferguson Head Up Match Theory Question
 

-Deleted-

Ok, we talk about it later [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]

Re: Helmuth - Ferguson Head Up Match Theory Question
 

Oops, I just read the bottom of Sklansky's post.

Re: Helmuth - Ferguson Head Up Match Theory Question
 

[ QUOTE ]
In which of the following ways would you tend to alter your play as compared to how you would play if it was simply a one match championship?

Play tighter preflop

Play looser preflop

Make your value bets bigger/smaller

Bluff more/less

Semi-bluff more/less

Be more/less inclined to call very big bets or get involved with big pots

Any other adjustments you care to name.

[/ QUOTE ]

None. I'm itching to say why. And I was going to say that even before seeing CityFan's answer. I swear!

Re: Helmuth - Ferguson Head Up Match Theory Question
 

Since it is given that opponent continues to play the same, then I should not be changing my strategy. I am obviously ahead in the series for a reason.

Re: Helmuth - Ferguson Head Up Match Theory Question
 

More aggresive and willing to call more. I'd be willing to get all my chips in evan when behind.

Re: Helmuth - Ferguson Head Up Match Theory Question
 

I'd do the exact opposite of what the announcer says I should do.

Re: Helmuth - Ferguson Head Up Match Theory Question
 

Play looser preflop, limping for a monster but not reckless.
I would also open my pushing range pre-flop
Make your value bets bigger
Bluff less
Semi bluff more

Or possibly.....

[ QUOTE ]

five opportunities to win this one match

[/ QUOTE ]

I'm pushing every hand preflop, well not every hand *cough*

However I think it would be very reasonable to use the charts that are included with SNG Powertools that contain the HU Nash Equilibrium Strategy and pushbot away....

Re: Helmuth - Ferguson Head Up Match Theory Question
 

David,

I think really important here is whether you are trying to maximise EV for the tournament, or overall EV, i.e. are you taking opportunity cost into account.

Dean

Re: Helmuth - Ferguson Head Up Match Theory Question
 

I would/wouldn't adjust my strategy based on assessing the following factors:

1. How I obtained this lead (e.g. suckouts, better play*, or coin flips),
2. How I believed my opponent would/wouldn't adjust their strategy given they now face elimination and perhaps a different strategy from me.
3. How I believed my opponent was counteracting the strategy I used to obtain this lead.

All of the adjustments in the original post *may* be ones I would consider.

Assuming standard solid poker by both got us to this point, I would change nothing.

*I assume skill can be equal as assumed, but perhaps given the circumstances one or both might not be playing at the level their skill may dictate (tilt, etc.).

Re: Helmuth - Ferguson Head Up Match Theory Question
 

Play a lot of hands with low blinds preflop. Push hard with drawing hands like QJs with high blinds. Force showdown.

Make more huger value bets than normal. Not overdo it, but noticeably more. More knockout blow mentality.

Bluff more with textured flops as opposed to nontextured flops. This is coordination with hard semi bluffing on straight and flush draws.

Less inclined to call very big bets. Get involved in big pots if I created the trouble by raising big or reraising.

Re: Helmuth - Ferguson Head Up Match Theory Question
 

[ QUOTE ]
In theory I would not adjust my play.

In practice I probably would get a bit more sloppy, having several lives left will likely result in me loosing some of my focus.

[/ QUOTE ]Same.

Re: Helmuth - Ferguson Head Up Match Theory Question
 

From this scenario, I clearly see an analogy at work:

Situation--Normal freezeout tourney, I am the big-stack, am head's up, and have my opponent significantly out-chipped.

The parallel is that in the "games won" category, you, in essence, are the big stack.

Therefore, I would play as I normally would if I had my opponent significantly out-chipped beginning head's up play. That play would be wholly contingent on my opponent's short-stack style and strategy, his mindset, and his overall willingess to gamble.

Assuming he was "desperate" and willing to push with a wide range of hands, I would play very tight and just pick a good spot. If he was patient and playing tight, I'd lean on him as hard as I could. If he doubles up, I still have the chip-lead [game-lead, in David's scenario].

Re: Helmuth - Ferguson Head Up Match Theory Question
 

Use whatever worked the first time. If your opponent changes his game, adjust accordingly. Just like any heads up match.

Re: Helmuth - Ferguson Head Up Match Theory Question
 

I'll make it easier to not explain since that is harder than it sounds for a lot of people. [img]/images/graemlins/grin.gif[/img]

Re: Helmuth - Ferguson Head Up Match Theory Question
 

OK. I am now ready to hear explanations on your answers. And a guess as to why I see an analogy with the Snyder head up situation. And a theory about what is going on in the heads of the people who are screwing this up. It seems like there is a specific fallacy operating and it should have a name. And forgiveness for lying when I said I have to think about this.