Perfect example from SSHE that I botched.
 

Here are the villians.

UTG: 15/9/2 with an AF of 1.5 on river. Seems pretty tight overall and haven't seen them get out of line at all. All raises that ended in showdown showed normal raising standards. I don't think she has seen me get out of line. She certainly has been there long enough to get a good read on UTG1 since it didn't take long for him to show his colors after she came to the table.

UTG 1: 77/13/1.37 with an AF over 2.3 on the river. Uber loose. Cold calls too much. Is capable of bluffing, and also donk betting with small pieces of the board. I have been going head to head with this guy all night, and have not been bluffing against him at all. He has layed down his cards from time to time with a river raise.

Me: I have been behaving my self lately and not getting out of line. I think my table image is TAG. I have made lay downs to aggression at times. I don't know that UTG is aware of this or not. UTG1 has spent a good 400 hands at the table with me. UTG is relatively new to the table but must know about UTGs style.

Full Tilt Poker
Limit Holdem Ring game
Limit: $1/$2
8 players
Converter

Pre-flop: (8 players) Bruce D is CO with 9[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] 9[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]
<font color="#cc0000">UTG raises</font>, UTG+1 calls, 2 folds, Bruce D calls, 2 folds, BB calls.

I call here in hopes that it will encourage others to fall in behind me (the blinds). I very likely have UTG1 crushed, and am at a coinflip with UTG I suspect.

Flop: 8[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] 8[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] 3[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] (8.5SB, 4 players)
BB checks, <font color="#cc0000">UTG bets</font>, <font color="#cc0000">UTG+1 raises</font>, <font color="#cc0000">Bruce D 3-bets</font>

I read it as this so far. UTG is cbeting the flop. UTG1 sees a paired board and wants to put some pressure on the preflop raiser. However, I think he is fos. I have seen him do this before. My 3 bet is to get HU with UTG1.

, BB folds, <font color="#cc0000">UTG caps</font>, UTG+1 calls, Bruce D calls.

I have a feeling I am in trouble. I have no idea how to take this line now. I pray for my 9 to come as I am most certainly in trouble.

Turn: J[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] (10.25BB, 3 players)
UTG checks, UTG+1 checks, <font color="#cc0000">Bruce D bets</font>, UTG calls, UTG+1 calls.

UTGs check is one of fear. She must think one of us just hit our flush. I will represent the flush now. My raising on the button with suited connectors, A [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] x [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] or K [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] x [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] would be consistent with plays that I had done before. It could also represent the one or both 8s, but I would not have likely cold called with X 8. Does either player know that? I am not sure. They both call, the pot is quite large.

River: Q[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] (13.25BB, 3 players)
UTG checks, <font color="#cc0000">UTG+1 bets</font>, Bruce D calls, UTG calls.

This was horrible. An absolute travesty. Can you tell me why? The pot is big. I am sure I have UTG beat still based on my reads. Even if I had an 8% chance of being ahead (which I think I do with these two opponents) I don't think folding is an option.

Results:
Final pot: 16.25BB

Re: Perfect example from SSHE that I botched.
 

PF 3bet. Yours 9's are going to hold up a lot better with fewer players in.

Tight UTG leading this flop is a little scary. UTG1 is probably raising because the board is paired. At best UTG is on a diamond draw.

I bet the turn. A c/r from UTG is unlikey after having capped the flop. UTG I wouldn't be too concerned about.

River I play the same, its too big to fold.

Re: Perfect example from SSHE that I botched.
 

I would 3-bet PF
given your reads 3-betting the flop is fine.
on the turn i would probably check behind and call 1 on the river (due to pot size)

Re: Perfect example from SSHE that I botched.
 

UTG is going to bet anything on this flop, cuz hes preflopraiser, UTG1 would bet any pocketpair higher then 3 any 2 overcards maybe even backdor flush/streight draws. So i think your flop play was good.

Turn i think i would bet here too, and i would fold to check/raise.

River i dont like this play (even tho i would probably play the same :P), given your read UTG1 is very tricky/aggro on the river, even tho he might paired here or even completed hes backdoor streight I think raise here is the right play. Why?
Given our read, with what would UTG raise preflop and cap this flop and then suddenly check on turn. I dont think he would cap with sth like AK, AQ on this flop (except maybe suited diamonds), if he would cap with JJ+, he would bet turn too, so i would put him on TT, so with flop raise he would most likely fold a better hand. So with UTG out u have much higher chance to win this pot.

Re: Perfect example from SSHE that I botched.
 

[ QUOTE ]
UTG: 15/9/2 with an AF of 1.5 on river. Seems pretty tight overall and haven't seen them get out of line at all. All raises that ended in showdown showed normal raising standards. I don't think she has seen me get out of line. She certainly has been there long enough to get a good read on UTG1 since it didn't take long for him to show his colors after she came to the table.

[/ QUOTE ]

I fold preflop.

Re: Perfect example from SSHE that I botched.
 

I agree with the pf call. A raise from a tight 15/9 player is something you have to respect. Give him a range like 99+, AJs+, KQs, AJo+, KQo and let UTG+1 call 30% of his hands and your equity is like ~33%. I call and hope for the set or a good flop.

You get your good flop and 3betting is fine. But I'd just check the turn after UTG caps. If he raised the flop with a fd why doesn't he bet the turn? His play looks like overpair to me and I check the turn since I guess he'll always go to showdown with his hand unless a fourth flush card hits.

Re: Perfect example from SSHE that I botched.
 

*grunch*

raise/fold preflop, call is bad here with one cold caller. If we had 3 people already committed then we can call.


Flop 3 bet is ok, once its capped then im done with the hand. your 9 [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] is not worth anything for the flush if the 4th [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] hits as two live ones will have a flush higher than yours.

TWIWP, even though it was checked to me, im not betting because i certainly don't want to walk into a C/R here. Check behind.

River sucks here but i don't see anything we can beat with the Q, J, flush, or pockt pairs greater than 9. I would call but not overcall.

Re: Perfect example from SSHE that I botched.
 

[ QUOTE ]
I agree with the pf call. A raise from a tight 15/9 player is something you have to respect. Give him a range like 99+, AJs+, KQs, AJo+, KQo and let UTG+1 call 30% of his hands and your equity is like ~33%. I call and hope for the set or a good flop.

[/ QUOTE ]

Using preflop equity to justify a call, then saying "call and hope for the set or a good flop" is terrible reasoning.

Re: Perfect example from SSHE that I botched.
 

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
I agree with the pf call. A raise from a tight 15/9 player is something you have to respect. Give him a range like 99+, AJs+, KQs, AJo+, KQo and let UTG+1 call 30% of his hands and your equity is like ~33%. I call and hope for the set or a good flop.

[/ QUOTE ]

Using preflop equity to justify a call, then saying "call and hope for the set or a good flop" is terrible reasoning.

[/ QUOTE ]

Aaron,

You're definitely right about this, but I don't agree that we should be folding preflop. There's enough money in the pot to justify calling on the basis of non-high-card flops and flops that make us a set alone. Give me another cold-caller and I'd call with 44.

To those who 3-bet preflop,

What's your reasoning?

Re: Perfect example from SSHE that I botched.
 

Pf I think we should re-raise. UTG+1 probably puts some dead money in the pot, so that compensates for the time UTG has us crushed (I would fold HU against UTG). But we want to eliminate players behind us.

On the flop I think ur 3-bet is a good play, but after UTG caps I'm done with the hand. I call the flop of course. On the turn u can't be good, so just check behind. UTG checks his OP because he is afraid of the flush. And then fold river.

Re: Perfect example from SSHE that I botched.
 

Posting blind.

I dont remember the example from SSHE that you are referring to, but you may enlighten me.

Nice opening description, particularly of the LAG.

Normally, I would fold 99 to the solid player's UTG pf raise, but a call seems reasonable with the LAG also in the hand.

Your explanation for your flop 3-bet makes sense to me, but I agree that it looks as though you are in trouble when UTG caps.

I agree that UTG may have c-bet the flop with say AK, particularly if one of them was a [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], however the flop cap suggests that she has a high overpair.

After the LAG calls the flop cap, the pot is 19.5 sb, and is big enough for you to call in the hope of catching a 3rd 9.

You pick up a draw to a one card flush on the turn, but it is only to the 5th nuts.

Thats where I think that you made a mistake. I dont think that your turn bet was likely to fold UTG if she had a high overpair or A [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] or K [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] and the LAG was probably also going nowhere.

So, I would have gratefully taken your free card on the turn, as opposed to attempt to represent the made flush with a bluff.

UTG looks as though she is still worried about a possibly made flush when she checks the river. However, despite the huge pot, I very much doubt whether your hand is best and I would not have called the river bet.

If you had checked behind on the turn and UTG had still checked the river, then I would have felt more inclined to call the LAG's river bet.

Re: Perfect example from SSHE that I botched.
 

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
I agree with the pf call. A raise from a tight 15/9 player is something you have to respect. Give him a range like 99+, AJs+, KQs, AJo+, KQo and let UTG+1 call 30% of his hands and your equity is like ~33%. I call and hope for the set or a good flop.

[/ QUOTE ]

Using preflop equity to justify a call, then saying "call and hope for the set or a good flop" is terrible reasoning.

[/ QUOTE ]

Aaron,

You're definitely right about this, but I don't agree that we should be folding preflop. There's enough money in the pot to justify calling on the basis of non-high-card flops and flops that make us a set alone. Give me another cold-caller and I'd call with 44.

To those who 3-bet preflop,

What's your reasoning?

[/ QUOTE ]

In order of importance, (imo)
1. become the aggressor
2. buy button/get rid of limpers (maybe this should be 1)
3. to further define UTG's hand, aka if she caps we can pretty much narrow her hand down to AA, KK, AKs

Re: Perfect example from SSHE that I botched.
 

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
I agree with the pf call. A raise from a tight 15/9 player is something you have to respect. Give him a range like 99+, AJs+, KQs, AJo+, KQo and let UTG+1 call 30% of his hands and your equity is like ~33%. I call and hope for the set or a good flop.

[/ QUOTE ]

Using preflop equity to justify a call, then saying "call and hope for the set or a good flop" is terrible reasoning.

[/ QUOTE ]

I mentioned the equity to show that reraising a tight raiser won't do us any good. Folding &gt;&gt; rasing imo against this 15/9 guy.

But I don't think we have to fold. A flop that gives us an overpair is very good with this hand and we should win it very often. More importantly we can get away from the hand easily in case the flop comes down pretty bad (most ace-flops etc.).
But when we hit a set we should get good action with ~3 villains (one very loose guy and one pf-raiser). When the pf-raiser hits a hand or has a high pp you might get huge action.
It's close to a fold but I still think calling is right.

Re: Perfect example from SSHE that I botched.
 

[ QUOTE ]
Pf I think we should re-raise. UTG+1 probably puts some dead money in the pot, so that compensates for the time UTG has us crushed (I would fold HU against UTG). But we want to eliminate players behind us.



[/ QUOTE ]

I would agree with wanting to eliminate players with a pf 3-bet if you thought it was likely that you had the best starting hand. In that case, you would want to improve its chances of holding up.

However, there is a reasonably good chance that UTG has a higher pocket pair than you, and you would not be much of a favourite over UTG if she had 2 overcards to your pair.

In addition, it would become expensive to call another bet if UTG then capped your pf 3-bet, with presumably a higher pair than yours.

So overall, I think that calling the pf raise with the loose player padding the pot seems to offer the best value for your hand.

Re: Perfect example from SSHE that I botched.
 

[ QUOTE ]

I would agree with wanting to eliminate players with a pf 3-bet if you thought it was likely that you had the best starting hand. In that case, you would want to improve its chances of holding up.

However, there is a reasonably good chance that UTG has a higher pocket pair than you, and you would not be much of a favourite over UTG if she had 2 overcards to your pair.

In addition, it would become expensive to call another bet if UTG then capped your pf 3-bet, with presumably a higher pair than yours.

So overall, I think that calling the pf raise with the loose player padding the pot seems to offer the best value for your hand.

[/ QUOTE ]

I think u have a point. After running a simulation on stove I don't think we have the equity to 3-bet (my estimate of their ranges gives us about 31% equity and like u said we could be capped and then we are in real trouble). Calling makes sense if we think we can get that extra equity on the later streets which is reasonable with UTG+1 in the hand (also we have the blind money). Also, if button, SB and BB came in, that would probably be good for us, increasing our equity/player rate.

Re: Perfect example from SSHE that I botched.
 

I don't hate pf. I might also fold or 3-bet depending on my feeling after watching Villain for a while.

The flop 3-bet is fine, but once you get capped by Villain you're usually in a world of trouble. It's very unlikely that she raised with less than 88 pf, or capped the flop OOP with two overs (unless she also has a diamond draw) vs a LAG and a guy who's going to be on a PP a lot after the pf coldcall + flop action. It would suggest a level of aggression you probably would have taken the time to talk about. It's possible you're on med suited connectors like QJs/JTs, or even hands like AJs/AQs if you're not very aggro pf and just want to get it HU v UTG+1 (with or without diamonds in all cases), but that's still a strong reaction from UTG with what is often very few outs if she's just on overs sans diamonds.

I just check through the turn. Betting doesn't really protect you from anything since there's a good chance that UTG is on a bigger PP that she's showing down unless another diamond falls and she doesn't have one or all hell breaks loose on the turn/river.

If UTG leads the river I fold UI. If UTG+1 leads and he'll bet with pretty much anything, I consider raising to try to discourage an overcall from UTG... though the chance that she has an overpair is diminished quite a lot after checking 2 streets unless she's particularly weak/tight, so just calling with the hope that she doesn't overcall would probably be ok. If a diamond falls I just call/bet if checked to.

Re: Perfect example from SSHE that I botched.
 

[ QUOTE ]
Aaron,

You're definitely right about this, but I don't agree that we should be folding preflop. There's enough money in the pot to justify calling on the basis of non-high-card flops and flops that make us a set alone. Give me another cold-caller and I'd call with 44.

[/ QUOTE ]

Put villain on a hand range. How often does villain hold a pair and how often does he have two high cards? How often does the flop come down as a "non-high-card flop"? How often does villain's high card catch you on the turn? (Presumably, he's not folding on the flop if it's all undercards.) When the flop comes as a "non-high-card flop", are you able to get away from your pair of 9s if villain keeps attacking (say you have a 853 flop or a J76 flop)?

Re: Perfect example from SSHE that I botched.
 

I may be getting some books mixed up, but I thought it was SSHE. Perhaps I read on NPAs web site. But the concept is there. And it would have likely won me this pot. I know its being results oriented, but because I hadn't been in the situation much if at all, I wasn't ready and hadn't thought about using this line.

The error on the play was not raising the river.

UTG showed just enough fear of the flush that it was in the back of her mind. When UTG1 comes firing, I should have INSTANTLY known, (don't remember if I did or not) that he did not have the flush. His play did not represent the flush. There was definitely no fear from UTG that she had the flush. There was a chance that she would call the river donk.

The proper play was to raise the river. UTG would now be more likely to fold for 2 cold I am assuming. My play would have been consitent with the flush holding and the play would be a +EV. I may not have won the pot on this hand specifically, but given the players and the board texture and the preflop action, a raise would win this pot enough times to make the raise profitable.

The raise should get her to fold what is likely the winning hand, and I get to either scoop the pot when UTG1 folds, or when my hand holds up heads up against him.

One thing I forgot to metion in the OP, is that his W$SD% was ~40%. That definitely bears on the decision. I don't remember what hers was.

Re: Perfect example from SSHE that I botched.
 

What is the problem? You feel like you should have raised the river? [img]/images/graemlins/confused.gif[/img]

Eh I dunno dude. Seems sketch to me.

Re: Perfect example from SSHE that I botched.
 

I think raising the river is not a very good idea. Given the action it's crystal clear that UTG is holding AA or KK. I usually don't try to bluff people off an overpair, people just call so often with these hands when it should be clear that they are beaten. You not only need to bluff UTG off his hand, you also need to have a better hand than UTG+1. Your hand is certainly not very bad against his range, but when we assume villain plays 80% of the hands preflop the probability that you have the best hand on this board is just 55%. Also note that this is assuming that he is never folding and playing his trash/hopeless hands like this. Even the worst players don't do this, so this probably means that the probability that he has a better hand than you is more than 50%.

Add this to the fact that UTG will call often with his overpair I think this is not the spot to bluff. Also note that UTG could be looking for a C/R on the river when he is holding QQ instead of AA and KK.

Comments on the other streets:

Preflop: I would usually fold 99 versus a raise from a tight player coming from UTG, but calling is ok I think with the fish in the hand.

flop: I agree with the preflop 3-bet to try to get an AK/AQ hand that is c-betting here to fold. When he caps it obvious you are in trouble.

turn: I don't see why you want to bet here. Be happy with your freecard, you don't have the best hand: try to hit your two-outer.

river: I see no reason to call here.

Re: Perfect example from SSHE that I botched.
 

Fold preflop.

You really think a player who plays 15% of their hands is raising lightly UTG.

Re: Perfect example from SSHE that I botched.
 

[ QUOTE ]
Put villain on a hand range. How often does villain hold a pair and how often does he have two high cards? How often does the flop come down as a "non-high-card flop"? How often does villain's high card catch you on the turn? (Presumably, he's not folding on the flop if it's all undercards.) When the flop comes as a "non-high-card flop", are you able to get away from your pair of 9s if villain keeps attacking (say you have a 853 flop or a J76 flop)?

[/ QUOTE ]

handt done something like this in a while, so i thought i would give it a crack.

i havnt really looked at the hand, so i dont know how these numbers apply. just wanted to see if i could get it right [img]/images/graemlins/tongue.gif[/img]

please correct where wrong.

Hands
----------------
AA - 12
KK - 12
QQ - 12
JJ - 12
TT - 12
AK - 16
AQ - 16
AJ - 16
KQ - 16

16*4 = 64
5*12 = 60
total= 124

48.3% Pair
51.7% High cards

-----------

Flop is all high cards (A,K,Q,J,T)
20/50 * 19/49 * 18/48
= 20*19*18/50*49*48
= 6840/117600
= 5.8%

-------------------

At least 1 high card

20/50 + 20/49 + 20/48
= 20*49/50*49 + 20*50/49*50 + 20/48
= 980/2450 + 1000/2450 + 20/48
= 1980/2450 + 20/48
= 1980*20/2450*48 + 20*2450/48*2450
= 39600/117600 + 49000/117600
= 88600/117600
= 75.3%

--------------------

Pairing either on flop

6/50 + 6/49 + 6/48
(6*49/50*49 + 6*50/49*50) + 6/48
= 294/2450 + 300/2450 + 6/48
= 594/2450 + 6/48
= 594*48/2450*48 + 6*2450/48*2450
= 28512/117600 + 14700/117600
= 43212/117600
= 36.7%

------------

Pairing either on flop or turn

43212/117600 + 6/47
= 43212*47/117600*47 + 6*117600/117600*47
= 2030964/5527200 + 705600/5527200
= 2736564/5527200
= 49.5%

Re: Perfect example from SSHE that I botched.
 

[ QUOTE ]
In order of importance, (imo)
1. become the aggressor

[/ QUOTE ]

Why would you want to be the aggressor here? This is an argument against 3betting preflop!

I fold preflop, but if I'm playing I'm coldcalling planning to raise favorable flops. The flop play is excellent but I hate the turn bet; there are a variety of reasons for UTG's cap and check but most of them involve us being crushed, except when s/he has A [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] K.

Re: Perfect example from SSHE that I botched.
 

Well lets analyse it like this.

We will say that we are NEVER good on the river. However, that is only because we are behind to UTG 100% of the time. UTG is weak tight. UTG will never fold for one bet because the pot is so big. But let us summise that she will fold for 2 bets 40% of the time. The other 60% she calls and takes the pot. When she folds let us say that I beat UTG1 85% of the time (Only a jack or a Q beats me and he doesn't have a PP higher than 7 and he never has the flush) and he will call one more 40% of that and MHIG.

How can we put this into a formula that shows the expected value?

Re: Perfect example from SSHE that I botched.
 

wouldnt that just be 0.4(0.85*15.25) - 0.6(2) = 3.98

that seems too simple. am i doing somethig really wrong there?

how about when you get 3-bet by UTG+1 or when UTG does infact call 2.

Re: Perfect example from SSHE that I botched.
 

That's easy: you are going to win (assuming that your numbers are right) the pot 0,4*0,85 = 0,34% of the time. 0,34 * 14,24BB (assuming both players fold) = 4,845 BB. Now we need to subtract the 2BB the river raise is going to cost us in the 0,66 of the times that we loose the pot: 1,32 BB.

We win on average 4,845 BB, we loose on average 1,32 BB so this results in an ev of 3,525BB.

So when your assumptions are correct raising the river is way better than calling.

That said; I think your assumptions are wrong! The probability that you win rfom UTG+1 is really a lot lower than 85%, just a small (incomplete proof):

[ QUOTE ]
Board: 8d 8c 3d Jd Qc
Dead:

equity (%) win (%) tie (%)
Hand 1: 61.4646 % 61.41% 00.05% { 9c9d }
Hand 2: 38.5354 % 38.48% 00.05% { random }


[/ QUOTE ]

Since UTG is going to have something better than random cards, the probability that your hand is best is in fact a lot lower.

When we assume that you will beat UTG+1 40% of the time and that UTG will in fact just fold 25% of the time the EV of a river raise is:

0,25 * 0,4 = 0,1

You will win 14,25 * 0,1 == 1,425 BB on average
You will lose 2 * 0,9 == 1,8 BB on average

Using these assumptions the river raise has an EV of -0,375 on average.

Note that this still implies that raising the river &gt;&gt; calling the river, but as already posted: I check the turn and fold the river UI.

Re: Perfect example from SSHE that I botched.
 

[ QUOTE ]
wouldnt that just be 0.4(0.85*15.25) - 0.6(2) = 3.98

that seems too simple. am i doing somethig really wrong there?

how about when you get 3-bet by UTG+1 or when UTG does infact call 2.

[/ QUOTE ]
It's almost right, but your calculations miss the fact that you also lose two BB when UTG folds but UTG+1 has a better hand.

Re: Perfect example from SSHE that I botched.
 

hielko, im being a nit, but shouldnt that be 0.34 * 15.25 because we have decided that UTG+1 will call the last bet if we raise?

Re: Perfect example from SSHE that I botched.
 

I think we have to add the money that goes in when UTG1 calls and he is behind in there. Is the money I lose 15% of the time when UTG1 has a J or Q in there somewhere?

If UTG doesn't fold, I ALMOST never win. I either muck, or fold to a 3bet. She has QQ, KK, or AA here almost always. The only way I win is if she over played AK.

Re: Perfect example from SSHE that I botched.
 

[ QUOTE ]
It's almost right, but your calculations miss the fact that you also lose two BB when UTG folds but UTG+1 has a better hand

[/ QUOTE ]

ok, now im confused...

my formula says:

40% of the time we win 85% of a 15.25 bb pot. this is when UTG folds and 85% of the time we beat UTG+1.

60% of the time, we throw away 2bb.

isnt that what you have written (apart from the fact i have called the pot 15.25BB rather than 14.25)?

Re: Perfect example from SSHE that I botched.
 

[ QUOTE ]
If UTG doesn't fold, I ALMOST never win. I either muck, or fold to a 3bet. She has QQ, KK, or AA here almost always. The only way I win is if she over played AK.

[/ QUOTE ]

No one calls 2 cold on the river with AK UI. Not even fish.

Re: Perfect example from SSHE that I botched.
 

[ QUOTE ]

Since UTG is going to have something better than random cards, the probability that your hand is best is in fact a lot lower.

[/ QUOTE ]

I assume you mean UTG1.. and yes, he almost DOES have random cards. He sees almost 80% of the pots.

Re: Perfect example from SSHE that I botched.
 

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
It's almost right, but your calculations miss the fact that you also lose two BB when UTG folds but UTG+1 has a better hand

[/ QUOTE ]

ok, now im confused...

my formula says:

40% of the time we win 85% of a 15.25 bb pot. this is when UTG folds and 85% of the time we beat UTG+1.

60% of the time, we throw away 2bb.

isnt that what you have written (apart from the fact i have called the pot 15.25BB rather than 14.25)?

[/ QUOTE ]
No, we trow away 2BB 60% of the time when UTG calls and we trow 2BB away another 6% of the time when UTG folds but UTG+1 has the best hand.

The pot size I use in my calculations is probably a bit to low and yours is a bit to high (UTG+1 will fold some % of the time). I think 15.0 sounds about right.

Re: Perfect example from SSHE that I botched.
 

[ QUOTE ]
Is the money I lose 15% of the time when UTG1 has a J or Q in there somewhere?

[/ QUOTE ]

yes... look at what hielko and i have writen.

the pot is 14.25bb when it gets to you on the river. according to your assumtions, if you call, you never win because utg allways calls and beats you. if you raise, 40% of the time, utg will fold and utg+1 will call one more bet. 60% of the time utg will call and we lose.

now of that 40% of the time when utg folds, 100% of the time utg+1 will put another bet in the pot making it 15.25 (not counting our raise). 85% of those times, we win that 15.25bb.

so, 60% of time time we lose our 2bb flat out because utg calls. 15% of 40% of the times we lose because utg+1 beats us anyway even when utg folds.

Re: Perfect example from SSHE that I botched.
 

why did you bet on the turn? utg has a pair and isnt gonna fold just because you bet. save your cash dude.

Re: Perfect example from SSHE that I botched.
 

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Since UTG is going to have something better than random cards, the probability that your hand is best is in fact a lot lower.

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I assume you mean UTG1.. and yes, he almost DOES have random cards. He sees almost 80% of the pots.

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The difference between 80% and 100% is significant. Also note that his cards become less random after all the postflop action. I assume that villain isn't going to the river with 100% of the hands he plays preflop. If he folds 10% of his worst hands on the flop, 10% of his worst hands on the turn and 10% of his worst hands on the river (and he folds 20% preflop) his handrange has shifted A LOT to his better holdings. Villain is a retard, but 99 isn't a good hand on this board against the top 50% of hands or something like that.

Re: Perfect example from SSHE that I botched.
 

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No, we trow away 2BB 60% of the time when UTG calls and we trow 2BB away another 6% of the time when UTG folds but UTG+1 has the best hand

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0.4(0.85*15.25) - 0.6(2) = 3.98

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0.6(2) = 60% of the time we throw away 2bb. no arguments there.

0.4(0.85*15.25) = 40% of the time we win 85% of the pot. so 15% of the 40% of times we dont win the pot. 15% of 40% is 6%. so isnt what we are saying the same thing...?

hang on... i see... scrap all that above...

it should be 0.4(0.85*15.25 - 0.15*2) = 0.4(12.665) = 5.185

so my whole formula should read:

0.4(0.85*15.25 - 0.15*2) - 0.6*2
= 0.4(12.665) - 1.2
= 5.066 - 1.2
= 3.866

have i got it this time? [img]/images/graemlins/grin.gif[/img]

edit: PS. hielko, while you are checking my math, how does it look in first post in this thread? as you can see, im not the best at this stuff [img]/images/graemlins/tongue.gif[/img]

Re: Perfect example from SSHE that I botched.
 

Edit.. Snitch beat me to it.. nice work!

I just needed a sounding board to get my head rolling, but you are fast on the drawing board!

No. UTG will only call my raise 40% of the time. That includes when he beats me with a J or a Q but he will also pay off some losers like 55 or 66 or a weak A. (Yes he was that horrible)

Sixty percent of the time he folds to the raise.

So we have
0.6(-2) + 0.4[0.6(13.25)+0.4[0.15(-2)+ 0.85(14.25)]=3.87

if we think the numbers are correct

Re: Perfect example from SSHE that I botched.
 

The villian is a retard. I saw him raise with 53o and a 399 board he called a r/r and went to the river UI with 2 more overcards on the river and turn.

He was CONSTANTLY showing down bottom pair no kicker.

He was showing down his pps with no improvement with aggression shown through out the hand when 2, 3, sometimes 4 overcards were out on him.

I could give him 22, 44, 55, 66, 77, 88, 99 and I could guarantee you he would call with any of those hands with some frequency. He could also have Jx, or Qx. However, I wouldn't be surprised to see an UI ace here.

eg

Full Tilt Poker
Limit Holdem Ring game
Limit: $1/$2
9 players
Converter

Pre-flop: (9 players) Bruce D is Button with J[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] 9[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]
2 folds, <font color="#cc0000">MP1 raises</font>, MP2 folds, <font color="#cc0000">MP3 3-bets</font>, CO folds, Bruce D folds, 2 folds, <font color="#cc0000">MP1 caps</font>, MP3 calls.

Flop: J[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] 4[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] Q[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] (9.5SB, 2 players)
<font color="#cc0000">MP1 bets</font>, <font color="#cc0000">MP3 raises</font>, MP1 calls.

Turn: 7[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] (6.75BB, 2 players)
MP1 checks, <font color="#cc0000">MP3 bets</font>, MP1 calls.

River: T[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] (8.75BB, 2 players)
MP1 checks, <font color="#cc0000">MP3 bets</font>, MP1 calls.

Results:
Final pot: 10.75BB
<font color="#111111">MP3 showed Ad 8d</font>
<font color="#111111">MP1 mucks 3s As</font>

Villian mucked.

I do not give villian any credit for noteworthy holdings on a regualar basis. Yes, he could have me beat, but I don't think he has me beat as often as you may think if he calls.

Re: Perfect example from SSHE that I botched.
 

An interesting thing that I think is more valuable than what we earn when UTG folds 40% of the time is what percentage does she have to fold in order for it to be neutral EV. The neutral point is when she calls exactly 86.6% of the time. If she calls more than that we lose, and if she calls less than that we gain.

I don't have the calculations in front of me to prove the math.

In other words if the villian (UTG) folds more than 14% of the time, the raise is +EV if we keep the assumptions of UTG1 intact.

Makes me think a raise is certainly in order. Can we expect her to call more than 86% of the time? She has to feel that she is good here more than 14% of the time.