MLET Challenge: Sleeman Action
 

Table Sleeman

Guruman 15bb
Thrakkar 15bb
Bravos1 15bb
Str8fish 15bb
AussieBattler 15bb
Stormy455 15bb
22pajo 15bb
Bona 15bb
Al_Money22 15bb


Thrakkar posts .5bb in SB, Bravos1 posts .5bb in BB, Str8fish folds, Aussiebattler folds, Stormy455 folds, 22pajo folds, bona folds, Al_Money22 folds, Guruman raises, Thrakkar calls, Bravos1 folds

Flop 5sb (2 players)

8 [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] 2 [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] J [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]

Re: MLET Challenge: Sleeman Action
 

My prediction...Its Smuprph, Battler and Str8 in an epic SH battle. Smurph starts berating Str8 for raising the turn so often. OZ is over Smurph'd dynamic HU play and starts calling his raises with hands like Q3 offsuit in the SB and begins picking up pots. St8 senses this and starts isolating him with marginal hands. Smurph, being a meta-game master switches gears and calls Aussie a lagtard, the battle moves forward...

Re: MLET Challenge: Sleeman Action
 

[ QUOTE ]
My prediction...Its Smuprph, Battler and Str8 in an epic SH battle. Smurph starts berating Str8 for raising the turn so often. OZ is over Smurph'd dynamic HU play and starts calling his raises with hands like Q3 offsuit in the SB and begins picking up pots. St8 senses this and starts isolating him with marginal hands. Smurph, being a meta-game master switches gears and calls Aussie a lagtard, the battle moves forward...

[/ QUOTE ]

umm, not on this table cos its foldcity for me and the str8fish....and Smurf is our organiser/moderator so he aint playing so he can call me a lagtard all he wants. I dont think Smurf will/should be commenting on any hands until they are complete because he has an inside track [img]/images/graemlins/tongue.gif[/img]

Re: MLET Challenge: Sleeman Action
 

I'm talking about an ideal world OZ where 3bb's/100 were the norm and Chris Tarrant never got drafted to Fremantle. [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]

Re: MLET Challenge: Sleeman Action
 

btw, what table r u on?

Re: MLET Challenge: Sleeman Action
 

im on all tables. Labatt is the first table that Im seeing a flop tho. theres a thread below this one for that table.

btw, tarrant to freo...lol...eddie must be crying (or counting the money) [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]

Re: MLET Challenge: Sleeman Action
 

[censored] joke. We got Medhurst. All we need is another little Brodie Holland running around the forward line.

Re: MLET Challenge: Sleeman Action
 

updates?

Re: MLET Challenge: Sleeman Action
 

Updates are posted after each betting round is complete.

These guys are trying to move pretty fast but it still takes time because we want the players to go over everything they can think of before they act.

I am getting some very interesting comments from some of the players on why they are doing things and I can only imagine that it will get better as time progresses.

Stay tuned.

Re: MLET Challenge: Sleeman Action
 

Table Sleeman (table comments please)



Str8fish 15bb 3 [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] 6 [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]


"Table Sleeman - 3h 6s in position 4 UTG"


Quality hand... only hope of winning (and continuing beyond the flop) I see are key flops... 45x [(4*4*42)*3=672], 66x [(3*2*48)*3=864], 666 [(3*2*1)=6], 33x [(3*2*48)*3=864], 333 [(3*2*1)=6], 663 [(3*2*3)*3=54], 336 [(3*2*3)*3=54], 578 [(4*4*4)*3=192], 789 [(4*4*4)*3=192], A24 [(4*4*4)*3=192], 245- already counted, 36x [(3*3*44)*3=396].



So I will need to hit a total of 3492 flops out of 50*49*48 = 117600 flops. That's 3% of the flops that could possibly occur. In other terms, that's ~32:1. That means that I'd have to have 32 people limp after me in order to make my hand profitable. Last time I counted, there were only 9 people at the table, so unless you're willing to dump money on the table for me Smurf, I guess I have to fold it. I also realize that we won't win on all those flops 100% of the time, especially with the straight draw ones. So further reduce the odds to possibly 40:1.



Here's the output from PokerStove in terms of my hand holding up against 8 other random hands through the entire board:



962,667 games 202.157 secs 4,761 games/sec

equity (%) win (%) tie (%)

Hand 1: 07.1463 % 06.28% 00.86% { 6s3h }

So my total equity is 7.1463% = 13:1. This includes the times when I get runner runner straights, trips, 2-pair, etc.

I'm actually surprised how high a number that is. Maybe I'm not taking into account some other stuff. Anyway, I may have made a few math mistakes above, but 3% of a chance of hitting a flop and 7% chance of winning all-around seems reasonable.

I think it's obvious that I fold.


AussieBattler 15bb 7 [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] 5 [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]


Insta-folds 57s NO comment required.


Stormy455 15bb 3 [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] Q [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]


I fold. Q3o does not have enough high card strength, not is it suited or connected. Not good enough to open here


22pajo 15bb 4 [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] 10 [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]


Table Sleeman
Hand: 4s Th
My action: Fold
Reasons: low card, un suited, a very weak hand.


Bona 15bb 6 [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] Q [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]


Bona folds........obvious fold


Al_Money22 15bb Q [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] 2 [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]


I'm folding on Sleeman, Q2o is obviously a fold from pretty much all positions


Guruman Button 15bb 9 [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] 8 [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]


Guruman table Sleeman - I raise.
I have 98o here, but this table folded to me and I have a clear button steal. Winning the blinds will be a coup in a one-orbit match, and I know how to play a steal hand from in position. I probably would have raised this from the cutoff for the same reasons.


Thrakkar .5bb post from SB 15bb 8 [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] Q [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]


my hand: Qh 8s in SB, folds to button who raises



reasoning:

- This is a FOLD for me if SB is only half (or less) of a small bet, but in this case I posted a full small bet!

- Let's look at this situation as if it was a bet that I pair my queen PLUS that my pair holds up. To simplify this even further let's eliminate the kicker problem by including into this bet that nobody else has a queen (thus I would be the only one with a pair of queens).



Here's the math (I'm a bit rusty in this, so I hope I'm doing it right!):



a) chance to hit a flop consisting of at least 1 queen and two cards NOT being an ace or a king (so nobody will pair overcards): 3/50*(52-8-1)/49*(52-8-2)/48*(3*2*1) = 27.6%



b) chance of nobody holding a queen:

b1) 1 opponent: 47/50*46/49 = 88.2%

b2) 2 opponents: 47/50*46/49*45/48*44/47 = 77.4%



c) combined chance of

c1) a) and b1): 24.4% => 3.1 to 1 against

c2) a) and b2): 21.4% => 3.7 to 1 against



d) chance of not seeing an ace or king on the turn / river is 87.2% / 85.1%

=> this means that I have good odds to call down (at least) an opponent betting into me with A-high or K-high



e) So what odds do I get calling here:

e1) BB folds => 4 to 1, this is bigger than 3.1 to 1 as needed according to c1)

e2) BB calls => 5 to 1, this is bigger than 3.7 to 1 as needed according to c2)



f) Is it worth RAISING to eliminate BB? I would invest 2 bets to get 5 => 2.5 to 1, this is LESS than 3.1 to 1 as needed according to c1). This also might lead to a reraise by the button what cuts down my odds even more!



g) What if I call and BB raises?

g1) button calls: in all I have to pay 2 bets to get 7 => 3.5 to 1 which is a little less than 3.7 to 1 as needed according to c2)

g2) button folds: I pay 2 to get 6 bets => 3.0 to 1 which is a little less than 3.1 to 1 as needed according to c1)

In this scenario it's also much more likely that an opponent holds AA or KK, but the possibility of this scenario in itself is quite small in my opinion.



According to these figures a CALL is worth it, but a RAISE is not. I know that I haven't looked at the possibilities of an opponent making a set, str8 or flush! Neither my chances to make 2 pair or better. I wouldn't know how to do the math and just hope that this simplification is NOT critical. I also assumed that button does NOT have AA or KK, which is OK in my opinion since this is a "classical" steal situation (folded to button).



So I call here and pray for NO raise and a good flop (and that my math was correct)!

Bravos1 .5bb post in BB 15bb K [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] 4 [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]


Bravos folds... getting 5:1 OOP in BB w/ Kc4d is not so great especially since SB called. Even if a K flops, I'm not so thrilled about my hand and can easily be dominated.


Thrakkar posts .5bb in SB, Bravos1 posts .5bb in BB, Str8fish folds, Aussiebattler folds, Stormy455 folds, 22pajo folds, bona folds, Al_Money22 folds, Guruman raises, Thrakkar calls, Bravos1 folds

<font color="red"> Flop 5sb (2 players) </font>

8 [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] 2 [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] J [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]

Thrakkar checks, Guruman bets, Thrakkar calls

FLOP COMMENTS

Thrakkar:

my hand: paired 8 with Q kicker in SB; HU vs. button who raised PF =&gt; 2nd pair on flop of J 8 2 rainbow

pot: 5 SB

I am glad that bravos folds his BB, because a pair of 8s is more likely to be good against one than two opponents. So it's HU now, but I must admit that I suck terribly at HU. Even Ozi beat me in a couple of games we played... =;-)

thinking:

- I expect Guruman to bet if I check it to him, because he was the aggressor PF and I might have easily missed the flop looking from his point of view. He probably thinks that I hold an ace or king and missed that.

a) I am ahead:

- If I am ahead of 2 cards 9 or bigger (no Q), then Guruman has 6 outs to make a better pair. There are no flush draws and the board is not very connected (except if you hold T9 the best you can have is a gutshot). 6 outs translates into necessary implied odds of a little less than 7-to-1. So if I bet I give him 6-to-1 immediate odds and expecting me to bet/call again on the turn drives his implied odds above the necessary 7-to-1. So I can hardly protect my hand by betting here.

- I also think that this flop isn't scary enough (no ace) to induce a fold by betting out. He may well regard that as a fishy bet into a preflop raiser and at least call me down or raise just to probe me.



b) I am behind to a paired J (not QJ) or one of these pocket pairs: AA, KK, TT, 99

- I have 5 outs. This means I need implied odds better than 8.2-to-1. If I check and call a bet I get 6-to-1 plus 1 or 2 BB on the later streets, so calling is OK (and it's not certain that I am behind as he might have tried to steal the blinds with a wide range of hands, so this makes a call even more attractive).

So since a bet won't protect my hand here and check-calling is worth it I will check right now.

This opens the possibilty of a check-raise! So how about that?

c) he calls =&gt; I paid 2 bets to gain 7. Sounds too much for me. Yes he might fold, but would he really think I have a set or 2 pair? And if I had it, would I raise on the flop already? Wouldn't I rather try to extract more money out of him and check-raise the turn? So I guess that he will NOT fold to a flop c/r.

d) he reraises =&gt; This would put me in an even worse situation.

conclusion: I check with the intention of calling.

Guruman:

Guruman table sleeman, checked to me I bet. I've got a hand here, and though I dont know much about thrakkar [looked up his past posts and he's not incredibly active here yet] I do know that he'll see this as a standard cont bet where I may or may not have total air. If he checkraises I intend to threebet and then go from there.

Thrakkar:

As I wrote before I checked with the intention of calling, so I'll stick to that and call.


<font color="red"> Turn 3.5 bb (2 players) </font>K [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]

Thrakkar bets, Guruman folds

TURN COMMENTS

Thrakkar:


Unfortunately this turn did help my hand. Now what shall I do?
thoughts:

Let's find out how many combos Guruman can hold where I am ahead/behind. Also let's have a look how many combos he can hold that he would possibly fold if he "knew" that I just paired the king on the flop, because he has less than 7 outs (if I bet now and bet/call on the river he gets 3 bets from me plus 3.5 already in the pot = 6.5-to-1 which translates into 7 outs or more).

a) total combos: 1,035 =46*45*0.5

b) combos where we draw: 6

c) combos where he is ahead: 282

AA (6), KK (2), QQ (2), JJ (2), TT (6), 99 (6), 88 (1), 22 (2), Kx (129), QJ (9), Jx (111), 82 (6)

c1) combos in c) that have 6 outs or less vs. a paired king in my hand: 119

QQ (2), TT (6), 99 (6), QJ (9), Jx except J8&amp;J2 (96)

c2) combos in c) and NOT in c1) that I can draw out on with 5 outs: 111

AA (6), Kx (105)

d) combos where I am ahead and where at least one card is 8 or higher or where cards are suited (less than that he would probably have folded preflop): 531 = 747-(24*23*0.5)+4*(5+4+3+2+1)

d1) thereof combos that have 7 outs or more vs. a paired king in my hand: 81

QT (12), T9 (16), 2 diamonds: Ax (10), Qx (8), Jx (8), Tx (6), 9x (6), 8x (5), 7x (4), 6x (3), 5x (2), 43 (1)

Now let's try some math:

e) how likely is he to call if I bet (he is either ahead of a pair of kings in my hand or has odds to draw out): ~30% = (282-119+81)/(6+282+531) = 244/819

f) out of the 163 (=282-119) combos in e) I can draw out about 10.9% of the times of 111 combos =&gt; approx. 12 combos

g) out of the 81 combos in e) he does NOT make his draw in about 15% =&gt; approx. 12 combos

h) so from the 244 combos he will probably call with he will win with about 220 of them (244-12-12)

i) so what is my expectation on the turn bet?

i1) I bet, he folds: 70% = (819-244)/819

i2) I bet, he calls, I don't draw out: 27% = 244/819*220/244

i3) I bet, he calls, I draw out: 3%

It's very clear, that my chances of winning are very slim in case he calls. Therefore I should not call a turn raise, even if I suspected him very much to bluff.

My only chance to win the pot is that he holds a hand that has little chance to win against a paired king AND that he folds according to his bad odds. As the pot offers 3.5-to-1 this has to work about 23% of the times. According to i1) he might fold as much as 70% of the times, so I think I'll give it a try.

Call it a semi-bluff or a re-steal - I bet!

-Thrakkar



Guruman:

guruman table sleeman thrakkar stop on goes on a king. I fold.

I'm not sure how much wiggle thrakkar has in his game. he has to be on a pure bluff a pretty high percentage of the time (36% if we assume he'll have to bluff the river as well) and this board combined with my action makes me think that he's got to have a real hand here a much higher chunk than that. I think that folding here may hurt my action on some of my other tables, but I've really got no choice when you consider the fact that I can't win this one. If we were going to play 300 hands I'd call down to get a better read, but in this format I've got to do what I've got to do.



<font color="blue"> Hand is completed Thrakkar wins – Bravos1 loses .5bb Guruman loses 1.5bb Thrakkar wins 2 bb </font>

Re: MLET Challenge: Sleeman Action
 

holy crap, thats alot of analysis. clearly Im going to have to do more for future hands to just keep up with you guys and also cos it will help my game.

Re: MLET Challenge: Sleeman Action
 

[ QUOTE ]
holy crap, thats alot of analysis. clearly Im going to have to do more for future hands to just keep up with you guys and also cos it will help my game.

[/ QUOTE ]

Thrakkar has hurt my poor head! I'd just be betting the flop, thinking I'm probably beating a stealraiser with MP, but I like how he thought it out. The turn analysis is mindbending but it gave the right result!

Re: MLET Challenge: Sleeman Action
 

This hand is a gem in my books because it goes exactly where I hoped it would go. Great job here.

From Str8fish's poker stove analysis saying he needs 39 others to see the flop, all the way to the reason for a steal attempt to Thrakkar's defense analysis its just a thrilling read for me.

My favourite quote:

Unfortunately this turn did help my hand. Now what shall I do?
-Thrakkar

Re: MLET Challenge: Sleeman Action
 

i really don't like thrakkar's turn play.

He could have won more from me by checking the turn and allowing me to bet, and he's a HUGE dog if his bet gets called.

In my opinion he has a clear turn check as his first action, and then a decision to make about the strength of my hand and my current range.

When leads the turn the way he did, he's getting the worst of both worlds: I fold when he's beat, and I call or raise when he's not. He allowed me to play perfectly, which is a pretty high crime in poker.

Check and let me make a mistake please.

Re: MLET Challenge: Sleeman Action
 

I don't know about this one Guruman. I don't get your logic that you fold when he is beat here or call or raise when he's not.

Re: MLET Challenge: Sleeman Action
 

i thiknk you misunderstood me.

I fold when he's winning. I call or raise when he's beat.

There's very little middle ground there when he leads the turn, as the only better hand he can possibly force out is specifically A8, and that one I'll consider showing down.

If he checks the turn though, I'm very likely to bet again or to check through and call a river bet, both of which are mistakes in this specific hand. Thrakkar thinks that the only way he can win is to push me off of a jack I guess, but the fact is that he'll never be able to do so and will get valuebet to death when I do have a jack.

bottom line: On the turn Thrakkar has a medicore hand on a semi scary board vs an aggressive and thinking opponent. His best bet is to either let me bluff or move on to a better spot. Leading out there allows me to play perfectly.

Re: MLET Challenge: Sleeman Action
 

I think you make a false assumption here though. From his perspective there is no way you are going to think he is betting with a lousy third best pair.

And honestly there is no reason to suggest that you will not bet out with a better hand than he had on the turn. So his play was a semi bluff steal not a I have the best hand here and I want more money in the pot.

He wants to win it now, not at a showdown. Showdown value of his hand is crap. How can he get you to fold? Donk it is a good choice.

Less expensive than a check/raise still has some showdown or fold equity and a draw if you call and it's a pretty clear fold if you raise it.

I think it worked out perfectly because of what the holdings were, but I am pretty sure neither of you put each other on what you actually had.

Re: MLET Challenge: Sleeman Action
 

i dont think that I did make a false assumption. I also disagree that the showdown value of his hand is crap, since my range includes so many worse pocket pairs, Ax air, and other randomness.

Of course he's repping a bigger hand than he has. Thats fine. The question is: what better hands are folding? I'm not letting go of a J, and that K is right in my range.

The only hands I'm going to fold incorrectly are 99, TT, and maybe A8.

If he checks though, Im still betting pretty much my entire range on the turn, much of which is behind his hand.

its simple poker shorthand in these situations:

if he bets there is a very slim range of incorrect folds I'll make.

If he checks there is a much wider range of incorrect bets that I'll make.

Re: MLET Challenge: Sleeman Action
 

Guru, Smurph - I like your discussion! Now let me add my 2 cents (I know that I wrote A LOT on what my reasons for my actions were and that this might be hard to understand or simply too long for some people to read at all, so let me summarize the main parts.):

[ QUOTE ]
Thrakkar thinks that the only way he can win is to push me off of a jack I guess, but the fact is that he'll never be able to do so and will get valuebet to death when I do have a jack.

[/ QUOTE ]
Yes, that's <u>close</u> to what I thought: [ QUOTE ]
My only chance to win the pot is that he holds a hand that has little chance to win against a paired king AND that he folds according to his bad odds. As the pot offers 3.5-to-1 this has to work about 23% of the times. According to i1) he might fold as much as 70% of the times, so I think I'll give it a try.

Call it a semi-bluff or a re-steal - I bet!

[/ QUOTE ]

BUT: I made the assumption that Guru would FOLD [ QUOTE ]
if he "knew" that I just paired the king on the flop, because he has less than 7 outs (if I bet now and bet/call on the river he gets 3 bets from me plus 3.5 already in the pot = 6.5-to-1 which translates into 7 outs or more).

[/ QUOTE ]

What I don't understand is [ QUOTE ]
...that he'll never be able to do so and will get valuebet to death when I do have a jack.

[/ QUOTE ] [img]/images/graemlins/confused.gif[/img]

You wouldn't be able to "valuebet", because [ QUOTE ]
It's very clear, that my chances of winning are very slim in case he calls. Therefore I should not call a turn raise, even if I suspected him very much to bluff.

[/ QUOTE ]
In fact you shouldn't let ME valuebet you to death with KK vs. JJ! Wouldn't it make you think that I flat called until a K fell and then I wake up, call your turn raise or even 3-bet (letting you "valuecap me to death" [img]/images/graemlins/wink.gif[/img])?

Where's the logic in "valuebetting" a pair of Jacks vs. a pair of Kings? Please explain!

Also my 2 cents on: [ QUOTE ]
I fold when he's winning. I call or raise when he's beat.

[/ QUOTE ] This is only clear cut <u>IF</u> you hold a made hand like AA, pair of K, a set etc. It already gets difficult for you (IMHO, but see above) if you hold a paired Jack. How would you know that you have me beat and that betting/raising is OK?

Also there are hands that I have beat, but you shouldn't fold all of them IMHO: You SHOULD fold a gutshot AQ, AT, QT, Q9 (all likely holdings for a steal!). But you have odds to draw to a flush!

Looks like Smurph understood my line of thinking: [ QUOTE ]
From his perspective there is no way you are going to think he is betting with a lousy third best pair.

And honestly there is no reason to suggest that you will not bet out with a better hand than he had on the turn. So his play was a semi bluff steal not a I have the best hand here and I want more money in the pot.

He wants to win it now, not at a showdown. Showdown value of his hand is crap. How can he get you to fold? Donk it is a good choice.

Less expensive than a check/raise still has some showdown or fold equity and a draw if you call and it's a pretty clear fold if you raise it.

[/ QUOTE ] That sums it up pretty nicely!

Thoughts? Comments?
-Thrakkar

Re: MLET Challenge: Sleeman Action
 

thrakkar, thanks for the deatiled response. My thoughts:

1)a king doesn't stopngo almost ever. It either check/calls or check/raises most of the time, because what just happened is likely to happen then as well - the worse hands will just curl up and fold and the K will not win anymore bets.

2)because of the effect of number one, I'm much more likely to see a showdown with anything legit. I'm not going to fold a jack. I promise.

3)even though your hand is almost never a king, its also almost never complete air. This is because so much of that board is right in the middle of my range, and because there are so few draws out there. Your bet looks like one that wants to get called (honestly it looks a lot like either a jack, a good 8, or a total monster that wants to threebet)

4)because your hand looks like it does, I'm probably folding most of my low pocket pairs, my weak 8s, and my Ax air. You correctly surmised that you can fold to a raise from me, but you should also keep in mind exactly how much of a dog you are when I call.

5)since you're a huge dog when I call, your turn bet is essentially a pure bluff. You have five outs if you dont get raised, but the pot is not nearly the size you need it to be to justify that. IOW I'll have to both have and fold a better hand a very high percentage of the time in order to justify the bluff based on the pot size. I'll reiterate that I'm not folding a jack to the turn donk because the turn donk doesnt look like a K. It looks like a J.

6)again, because of the nature of your bet, the action, my range, and the board - I'm not going to be able to call with any weak pocket pairs, drawless hands, or any otherwise whiffed stealing hands. Your hand looks too much like a made (non K) pair, so I've got to pitch that part of my range. Once again: because I cannot call with many worse hands, your turn bet is not for value and therefore only has value as a bluff.

7)If instead of betting you were to check, I would bet my entire range, much of which you are still beating. You could at that point choose to just call me down, or to call here and check/fold the river - since I'd have to check behind most of my weaker showdown hands like pps and Ax.

the sum of all of this is that I will be allowed to make a greater and wider range of mistakes if you check this hand than if you bet it, and you are often making a larger and wider ranges of mistakes when you bet the turn.

I'll reiterate that I'm not folding a jack because your turn bet doesnt look like a king.

Re: MLET Challenge: Sleeman Action
 

I follow all what you are saying except part number 7 because I don't see the equity against your range with that board in Thrakkar's hand that makes calling a positive ev move for him.


In your analysis you said you would call down for a read but even though you estimated it was a pure bluff 36% of the time, you never mentioned rebluffing.

I am wondering if a call down under any circumstance is correct and is it better to fold or reraise here when faced with the donk bet?

Re: MLET Challenge: Sleeman Action
 

I tend not to be so terribly interested in rebluffs on the first hand of any encounter.

In this circumstance it would be more of a "free showdown" raise since my hand can't stand any more action, but I don't really like this spot for it because of how in the middle of my range that K is.

Thrakkar's bet doesnt look like its going to fold to a raise, and is more likely looking to threebet since I'm going to be tempted to raise with some of my jack hands and lots of my king hands.

If the turn card were a low blank I'd be more inclined to rebluff. Thrakkar leading on the K turn shows considerable strenght though, and is enough to cause me to fold outright.

Also, if I think he's bluffing I'd do better to just call down.

Re: MLET Challenge: Sleeman Action
 

I went through your post again. Since my HU skills are not the best I try to learn as much as I can. Still there are some arguments in your post that I still don't fully understand or disagree with. Enlighten me! [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]

[ QUOTE ]
5)since you're a huge dog when I call, your turn bet is essentially a pure bluff. You have five outs if you dont get raised, but the pot is not nearly the size you need it to be to justify that.

[/ QUOTE ]
I think I <u>had</u> the necessary odds:[ QUOTE ]
My only chance to win the pot is that he holds a hand that has little chance to win against a paired king AND that he folds according to his bad odds. As the pot offers 3.5-to-1 this has to work about 23% of the times. According to i1) he might fold as much as 70% of the times, so I think I'll give it a try.

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IOW I'll have to both have and fold a better hand a very high percentage of the time in order to justify the bluff based on the pot size.

7)If instead of betting you were to check, I would bet my entire range, much of which you are still beating. You could at that point choose to just call me down, or to call here and check/fold the river - since I'd have to check behind most of my weaker showdown hands like pps and Ax.


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I think you miss something here: It's not <u>only</u> about you folding a better hand, but also not letting you draw out on me on the river! Put yourself in my shoes for a moment!
From my perspective there are a LOT of scare cards that could fall on the river: 15 = A(4), T(4), 9(4), 2(3)
another 10 cards are no help either: K(3), J(3), 7(4) =&gt; str8!

So 25 out of 46 unknown cards (&gt;50%) will leave me at least guessing about where I stand so <u>I tried to end the hand right here</u>! And according to my calculations (correct me please, if they are wrong) I had a nice overlay of up to ~70% compared to the needed 23%.

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I'll reiterate that I'm not folding a jack to the turn donk because the turn donk doesnt look like a K. It looks like a J.

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This puzzled me the most! My action was based on the assumption that you would fold a hand that doesn't beat KK and doesn't have the odds to draw. I made a poll, because I'd like to learn if that's how HU works. Personally I think that odds are odds, no matter how many players and if I don't have the odds to draw I should be strongly inclined to fold.
With 5 outs you would need &gt;8.2-to-1 implied odds to continue with your Jx hand vs. a paired king. The pot offered 4.5 BB, so even if you get 2 bets from me on the river it's still 2BB less than needed. So why continue? [img]/images/graemlins/confused.gif[/img]

-Thrakkar

Re: MLET Challenge: Sleeman Action
 

your hand doesnt look like a king because a king will tend to either check/call or checkraise the turn. This is because I'll bet most of my range on the turn again, and the king doesnt want to fold out the weaker hands.

more later.