UFC UFN Thread
 

I know there was a UFC thread earlier this week, but I wanted to start one dedicated to Tuesday's UFC fight night. Perf, lock this one if you had plans to use an old thread for the fight night.

I'm new to UFC and MMA so all my bets are .2 unit bets. This is my first time betting on UFC so I have no history.

I took the following:

Tito -777 vs Shamrock
Josh Haynes -121 vs Rory Singer

I'm also eyeing Thiago Alves +128 vs John Allesio

Swope and Perf...I would appreciate your thoughts on all fights.

Re: UFC UFN Thread
 

New thread is fine.

As I recommended in the old one: max bet on Ortiz at anything under -2000.

With the -777 line and max of $2000 that's a lot. But its very much worth it. Free, free, free money. Ortiz wins this fight at least nine out of ten times (-900) and I'd actually handicap it at -1900 (95% win rate).

Rest of the card nothing really stands out. Hamil is probably worth a unit or two at under -250, but Seth Petruzelli is no slouch. Unfortunately we haven't seen Hamil that much but he's such a strong wrestler.

For me, i'm wrapping up everything on Ortiz and won't bother with the rest of the card. 99.999 confidence level is too juicy to pass up, even at -777.

Re: UFC UFN Thread
 

Good luck on the Ortiz bridgejumper...

I was thinking about betting Alessio if got down to 125/130
Alessio is a much more experienced fighter(started MMA when he was 19). He's 11-3 in about the same time period as Alves went 8-3. I also like that in his last 14 fights (dating back 5/6 years) Alessio hasn't been stopped. I think that's a very important factor to consider when handicapping MMA. He's also never been knocked out or TKOd in his career. His only losses have been decisions and submissions (which happened more than 5 years ago. I'll probably stay away from this though...not familiar enough with these two.

Haynes/Singer ... who knows...

Only fight I like is Macdonald +256 vs Ed Herman. I think this is practically a 50/50 fight...(I'm no expert by any means however) I do know Macdonald generally has great cardio and his loss to Kalib Starnes he took on short notice. Also, Herman lost to Joe Doerksen while Macdonald beat him in the fourth of a five rounder.

Different card, but I'd much rather bridge jump with Shawn Sherk at -321 ... I can't imagine Florian having a better chance vs Sherk than Shamrock does vs Ortiz.

Re: UFC UFN Thread
 

[ QUOTE ]

Different card, but I'd much rather bridge jump with Shawn Sherk at -321 ... I can't imagine Florian having a better chance vs Sherk than Shamrock does vs Ortiz.

[/ QUOTE ]

Then I don't believe you have seen either of the 2 fights, or any fight either fighter has had in the last 5 years (referring to Ortiz and Shamrock).

I definately like Sherk in the fight, but I don't like the line. Sherk is dominant...but Florian is a reasonable matchup...significantly better than some standup fighter that Sherk is usually put against (and dominates). However, he beat Diaz...and I don't think Florian has anything on Diaz, so Sherk is going to win. However, Florian is certainly a lot more capable of submitting Sherk than Shamrock is capable of doing anything to Tito.

I agree with Perf...Tito is the only worthwile bet on this card.

Re: UFC UFN Thread
 

jmillerdls,

The things that worry me about Florian are that he has a reach advantage, can submit Sherk, but the biggest worry is that he likes to and is good at throwing elbows. A decent elbow will end this fight. This fight doesn't jump out at me as having good value on either side. With UFC I'm only looking for lines with great value to bet on.

I'm surprised so many people are doubting Tito in his fight. He wins only 95% of the time??? Give me a break. 99+% of the time. The only thing Shamrock is better at is running his mouth. A more interesting wager would be to see if the fight will go past 2 minutes (It won't).

Re: UFC UFN Thread
 

[ QUOTE ]
I'm surprised so many people are doubting Tito in his fight. He wins only 95% of the time??? Give me a break. 99+% of the time. The only thing Shamrock is better at is running his mouth. A more interesting wager would be to see if the fight will go past 2 minutes (It won't).

[/ QUOTE ]

/agreed

I'd probably hang a -1900 Ortiz line if I were booking this fight, I meant. I think at Shamrock +1650 or whatever, you'd see enough people taking the super longshot and few people loading up on Ortiz as to make some money.

In reality, as you point out, this is the closest thing to a "lock" that exists in sports betting. There is literally almost no way for Shamrock to win this fight, in reality. He can't hurt Tito standing. He certainly can't submit Ortiz. He can't take Ortiz down. Probably the only way Shamrock would possibly have to win this fight would be a very very lucky knee to Ortiz as Ortiz is shooting. And even if he stuns Tito with a big knee I'd still give Ortiz an 80% chance of recovering and winning the fight even if he's stunned and on his back.

But Tito's smarter than to put himself in that position. As with the last fight, he's not going to just shoot across the cage out of control, he's going to strike, then clench, then takedown from the clench, then walk Shammy to the fence, then come the elbows, all to avoid any miracle attempt from Shamrock.

My entire available sports betting bankroll is tied up on this fight across *ahem* various sites.
No arb hunting for me until Wednesday...

I would literally bet this line (-777ish) if the rules were such that every round of the fight were started in a wrestling Referee's position with Ortiz on the bottom.

Re: UFC UFN Thread
 

[ QUOTE ]
Alessio hasn't been stopped.

[/ QUOTE ]By accident, I caught his first fight after the Diego loss on this hi-def channel that oddly shows MMA at random. I expected Alessio to kill his opponent given that I thought he won the Diego fight. However, Alessio looked awful and he was almost beat.

Re: UFC UFN Thread
 

[ QUOTE ]
Probably the only way Shamrock would possibly have to win this fight would be a very very lucky knee to Ortiz as Ortiz is shooting.

[/ QUOTE ]Does Shamrock have a big knee and does it give him a "punchers chance"? He nailed Kimo awesomely. However, I think Kimo was pretty washed up by then but I dont remember.

Also, who has Tito beaten in the last 6 years who would be considered world class talent? Note - I am not arguing against Tito. Just looking for info.

Re: UFC UFN Thread
 

Be careful if you bet this at Sports Interaction. I just called them and they said that draws are considered a loss.

Re: UFC UFN Thread
 

No, Shamrock doesn't have a big anything anymore. He's five years past being able to be even remotely competitive in the UFC and he's fifteen years past his prime.

Shamrock

Shamrock hasn't looked good since 1996. He lost to Dan Severn at UFC 9 in May 1996 and then left fighting. He returned in 2000 to Pride, fought there twice in 2000 and went 1-1: his win was over a very mediocre (and that's being kind) Alexander Otsuka who sports a 3-12 MMA record. His loss was to an OK Kazuyuki Fujia who has beaten some people but no one big.

Shamrock fought once in 2001, in WMMAA (World Mixed Martial Arts Association, in Atlantic City) in another feature bout with yet another punching bag opponent: Sam Adkins, current record 7-17-2. That brings Shamrock to 2-1 since his return to the MMA in 2000.

In early 2002 Shamrock then steps to Pride for a big payday with fellow UFC-veteran Don Frye, and loses a split decision. In late 2002 he steps in to fight Tito for the first time at UFC 40 and gets murdered in three rounds. Tito just abuses him for three solid rounds until the fight is stopped between rounds because Shamrock has taken two solid rounds of punishment.

Shamrock then takes another year and a half off, fighting a fellow has-been Kimo at UFC 48 in June 2004. Ken does drop him with a knee. Shamrock is now 3-2 since his return in 2000.

Shamrock then gets thrown to the wolves at Rich Franklin's UFC coming out party at the first Ultimate Fighter finale in April 2005. Franlkin demolishes him in the first round.

Shamrock then fought in Pride 30 against Sakuraba and got smoked in the first round. Then nine months later, UFC 61, Ortiz drops Shamrock in the first round. 3-4 since his return in 2000, with wins over terrible opponents and losses to anyone with remotely any talent.

Ortiz

Just looking at since 2000, as with Kenny:

April 2000 @ UFC 25 Ortiz beats Wanderlei Silva by UD. Then beat Yuki Kondo at UFC 29 in late 2000. Then beats Evan Tanner in Feb 2001 at UFC 30 and Elvis Sinosic four months later at UFC 32, and Vladimir Matyushenko at UFC 33 in September 2001.

Ortiz then takes a break, returns in November 2002 to beatdown Kenny at UFC 40.

Then Ortiz fights Randy Couture and loses a UD in Sept 2003. Chuck Liddell takes the belt from Randy, and Ortiz fights Liddell at UFC 47 in April 2004. Ortiz makes the mistake of trying to stand with Liddell exclusively, and gets KO'd.

Six months later, Ortiz fights up-and-comer who was then undefeated (5-0 at the time) Patrick Cote (who you just saw fight on this week's TUF - the training partner for GSP, etc) at UFC 50 and wins a UD. Then four months later, UFC 51 in Feb 2005 Tito beats Vitor Belfort.

Tito's record since 2000 at this point is 8-2. Ortiz then gets in a contract dispute with Dana White and steps away for over a year. He returns at UFC 59 in April 2006 and wins a split decision over Forrest Griffin, showing a bit of ring rust and limited a little from recovering from a knee injury. Three months later, July 2006 UFC 61, Ortiz drops Shamrock in just over a minute.

Of those, Wanderlei is certainly world-class. Elvis Sinosic, Evan Tanner, Forrest Griffin all certainly top-tier fighters. Vitor Belfort and Patric Cote both interesting case studies: Belfort was 12-4 when he fought Ortiz, and was considered a world class fighter, but including the loss to Randy Couture right before Tito, Belfort lost four of his last six fights bringing his record to 14-7. Cote likewise was undefeated when he fought Tito at 5-0 and was a very strong up-and-comer. Ortiz was his first loss, and then he came back three months later for a win in TKO 19, but then got back in to the UFC with a loss to Joe Doersken at UFC 52, another loss to Chris Lebel at Ultimate Fight Night in August 2005, bringing his record to 6-3. Cote has fought twice in 2006, winning both, including one over a solid Jason MacDonald. Yuki Kondo that Ortiz beat at UFC 29 is also a solid Pancrase fighter with a 45-18-6 MMA record.

---


I've seen video and several photos from inside Shamrock's camp. Kenny looks terrible - his face is haggard, he's lost muscle mass, and in the video he's still as slow as he's been in the last several years.

Yes, there is a very, very, very remote chance that Shamrock can with this fight. But I would honestly handicap that at well less than a 5% chance (probably a 1%-2% chance at best), which makes this current line tremendously +EV.

Re: UFC UFN Thread
 

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Probably the only way Shamrock would possibly have to win this fight would be a very very lucky knee to Ortiz as Ortiz is shooting.

[/ QUOTE ]Does Shamrock have a big knee and does it give him a "punchers chance"? He nailed Kimo awesomely. However, I think Kimo was pretty washed up by then but I dont remember.

Also, who has Tito beaten in the last 6 years who would be considered world class talent? Note - I am not arguing against Tito. Just looking for info.

[/ QUOTE ]

Tito's only big win in recent memory was against Vitor Belfort, which was a very close split decision. In fact, he hasn't finished an opponent other than Ken Shamrock in over 5 years.

That being said, Ken hasn't beaten anyone of note either.

Re: UFC UFN Thread
 

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Probably the only way Shamrock would possibly have to win this fight would be a very very lucky knee to Ortiz as Ortiz is shooting.

[/ QUOTE ]Does Shamrock have a big knee and does it give him a "punchers chance"? He nailed Kimo awesomely. However, I think Kimo was pretty washed up by then but I dont remember.

Also, who has Tito beaten in the last 6 years who would be considered world class talent? Note - I am not arguing against Tito. Just looking for info.

[/ QUOTE ]

Tito's only big win in recent memory was against Vitor Belfort, which was a very close split decision. In fact, he hasn't finished an opponent other than Ken Shamrock in over 5 years.

[/ QUOTE ]

He still fighting Ken, with a shot at Lidell waiting come December

Re: UFC UFN Thread
 

Hi all,

Does anyone else think Petruzelli and Singer are decent bets?

Petruzelli is a very good striker, obviously hamill will be looking to take him down, but I think Petruzelli has a decent chance to keep it standing and knock Hamill out.

I think this either goes the distance, which Hamill wins, or it's stopped early due to Hamill getting KO'd.

Petruzelli currently at +205. Anyone think this line will get up higher? considering the popularity of Hamill?

I like Singer because I just don't believe Haynes is any good at all. He's looked so bad in all of his fights, I guess some people could just call it "unconventional" but it just appears as if he has 0 technique.

Re: UFC UFN Thread
 

Five years and three months ago he TKO'd Elvis Sinosic in the first round. Close [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]

In the last five years, here's Tito's breakdown:

<font color="green"> Shamrock - win, TKO - UFC 40, 11/22/2002</font>
<font color="red">Couture - lose, UD - UFC 44, 9/26/2003</font>
<font color="red">Liddell - lose, KO - UFC 47, 4/2/2004</font>
<font color="green"> Cote - win, UD - UFC 50, 10/22/2004</font>
<font color="green"> Belfort - win, SD - UFC 51, 2/5/2005</font>
<font color="green"> Griffin - win, SD - UFC 59, 4/15/2006</font>
<font color="green"> Shammy2 - win, TKO - UFC 61, 7/8/2006</font>



Ortiz has a fight scheduled beyond this one, a December date with Chuck Liddell, which will likely be Tito's last opportunity to reclaim a title. He's not going to get derailed by Shamrock here with that match with Liddell on the line.

Here's a profile on Ortiz, if people haven't seen it: http://www.tbo.com/video/xml/MGBHJK632TE.html as linked from UFC.com.

And a good writeup from michael DiSanto: http://www.ufc.com/index.cfm?fa=news...l&amp;gid=3516

good quote from that article:

“I’m ready for Ken Shamrock,” he said. “This is my third fight this year. I’ve never really gotten out of shape. The longest I’ve been away from the gym is two weeks, so my timing is excellent. I’m 100-percent healthy. I don’t have anything bothering me at all. My hands look good. My ground game is better than ever. And my wrestling is back to where it was before. This is one of my biggest fights ever, and I’m ready for it. I’m going to beat Shamrock worse than the last two times, and then it is time for Chuck Liddell.”

Re: UFC UFN Thread
 

Singer is great on the ground but he has to either break Haynes or make him pass out, the guy doesn't know how to tap. Singer will fatigue before he can get Haynes to tap, then get pounded.

Re: UFC UFN Thread *DELETED*
 

Post deleted by Performify

Re: UFC UFN Thread
 

Good Post...Now go away.

Re: UFC UFN Thread
 

[ QUOTE ]
Im sorry but I will laugh my ass off if shamrock wins.You guys are morons if you are willing to pay that much juice on ortiz.

[/ QUOTE ]

Perf always puts a ton of effort into his posts and for you to post something like this is shameful.

1. If you disagree posts some facts.
2. Learn the definition of juice.

Re: UFC UFN Thread
 

I'm putting my entire meager sports betting bankroll on Ortiz, just like I did last fight. Shamrock doesn't even have a puncher's chance. -777 is crazy.

Re: UFC UFN Thread
 

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Im sorry but I will laugh my ass off if shamrock wins.You guys are morons if you are willing to pay that much juice on ortiz.

[/ QUOTE ]

Perf always puts a ton of effort into his posts and for you to post something like this is shameful.

1. If you disagree posts some facts.
2. Learn the definition of juice.

[/ QUOTE ]

What do you expect from somebody with "pwn" in their name? In my experience, 99% of people who use the word "pwn" are complete idiots.

Re: UFC UFN Thread
 

[ QUOTE ]
What do you expect from somebody with "pwn" in their name? In my experience, 99% of people who use the word "pwn" are complete idiots.

[/ QUOTE ]

What if own is in their avatar??????????
&lt;&lt;&lt;&lt;&lt;&lt;&lt;&lt;&lt;&lt;&lt;---------------

Re: UFC UFN Thread
 

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Alessio hasn't been stopped.

[/ QUOTE ]By accident, I caught his first fight after the Diego loss on this hi-def channel that oddly shows MMA at random. I expected Alessio to kill his opponent given that I thought he won the Diego fight. However, Alessio looked awful and he was almost beat.

[/ QUOTE ]

Almost beat? What are you talking about...some people thought he won that fight. He just looked awful because he had a gameplan (stuff the shot) that almost worked against a very tough fighter who takes everyone down. He was too tentative on his feet though (fear of getting taken down) and that's what cost him the decision.

Re: UFC UFN Thread
 

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Alessio hasn't been stopped.

[/ QUOTE ]By accident, I caught his first fight after the Diego loss on this hi-def channel that oddly shows MMA at random. I expected Alessio to kill his opponent given that I thought he won the Diego fight. However, Alessio looked awful and he was almost beat.

[/ QUOTE ]

Almost beat? What are you talking about...some people thought he won that fight. He just looked awful because he had a gameplan (stuff the shot) that almost worked against a very tough fighter who takes everyone down. He was too tentative on his feet though (fear of getting taken down) and that's what cost him the decision.

[/ QUOTE ]I am referring to the fight after the Diego fight. I thought he won the Diego fight even though he was tentative.

Re: UFC UFN Thread
 

[ QUOTE ]

In my experience, 99% of people who use the word "pwn" are complete idiots.

[/ QUOTE ]

I think Ortiz will pwn Shamrock.

That is all.

Re: UFC UFN Thread
 

[ QUOTE ]
Im sorry but I will laugh my ass off if shamrock wins.You guys are morons if you are willing to pay that much juice on ortiz.

[/ QUOTE ]

do you know what "juice" is?

Re: UFC UFN Thread
 

ed herman &amp; nate marquart.

allllllllllllllllll day.

Re: UFC UFN Thread
 

[ QUOTE ]
I am referring to the fight after the Diego fight. I thought he won the Diego fight even though he was tentative.

[/ QUOTE ]

Ahh, the tough russian, The russian was quite a bit bigger though I believe the fight was at 185

Re: UFC UFN Thread
 

Swope where are you seeing marquart...i dont have him on pinny.

Re: UFC UFN Thread
 

[ QUOTE ]
Swope where are you seeing marquart...i dont have him on pinny.

[/ QUOTE ]

betonfighting.com has him at -500 against crafton 'gonna get tapped in the first 3 minutes' wallace.

bof is really blowing my mind lately, they do parlays for mma events on fight day. hit a 4 fight parlay for last nights Hero's event; Uno, Manhoef, Akiyama, JZ. Boomage.

Re: UFC UFN Thread
 

[ QUOTE ]

ed herman &amp; nate marquart.

allllllllllllllllll day.

[/ QUOTE ]

Any reason for Herman? Cause I'll take Macdonald alllllll day at these odds. The calibre of competition these two have faced isn't even close...Macdonald has faced way tougher compet and he was beating Cote until he got subbed in the 5th round. A lot of the people who've followed Macdonald progress as a fighter up in Canada say he's going to run through Herman. Herman hasn't been impressive to me...he's got good wrestling that's about it...

http://www.mmaringreport.com/index.p...&amp;Itemid=86

Re: UFC UFN Thread
 

[ QUOTE ]
jmillerdls,

The things that worry me about Florian are that he has a reach advantage, can submit Sherk, but the biggest worry is that he likes to and is good at throwing elbows. A decent elbow will end this fight. This fight doesn't jump out at me as having good value on either side. With UFC I'm only looking for lines with great value to bet on.



[/ QUOTE ]

Reach advantage?? He's 30-2 against guys who have the reach advantage. He probably hasn't fought anyone where he has had the reach advantage. He'll also be cutting down for this fight whereas in the past he always fought at 170 and 170 is his walking around weight. He's the bigger, stronger, faster, more experienced, better conditioned fighter with better wrestling and standup that has never been submitted and has practically made a career of GNP'ing submission fighters. Kenny Florian is 4-2 and has "good elbows"... ok I think Matt Hughes has good elbows too but he couldn't stop Sherk.

Re: UFC UFN Thread
 

the only thing that worries me is the ortiz line looks to good to be true and there is some kind of fix. cause i'd put shamrocks chances of legitimately winning at 0. are there really that many goofs willing to bet on shamrock to keep this line where it is? gonna empty my account on tito probably after mnf tonight.

Re: UFC UFN Thread
 

This is the highest UFC line in history, as far as i know.

And one of the highest lines (i'd say top five, maybe) alltime in MMA.

1) Linesmakers are underestimating Tito's dominance of Ken - they opened this line low, to begin with. I honestly would have hung at least -1000 to open, and probably well upwards of that. Just yet another example of a bad MMA line, here

2) yeah, people love longshots in MMA. Most of the time they're right, as the "puncher's chance" is a great equalizer in a lot of fights. But there are certain fights where a puncher's chance doesn't even apply, and this is one of them.

3) I'm not kidding when I say my entire sports betting bankroll is wrapped up on Ortiz.

The line has moved to the point that you could have locked in a nice little arb if you were worried, (currently -900 Ortiz, +810 Shammy) but give that I'd already consider this so strongly +EV I can't imagine arbing this.

And yes, I'm serious in what I said before, that this is a +EV bet anything short of -1900.

Re: UFC UFN Thread
 

Also there's zero chance of a fix here.

Tito hates Ken way to much to lay down for him. Not to mention, it would screw up Dana's plans, and it would screw up Tito's plans.

Dana wants Liddell/Ortiz 2 to headline UFC 66 in December.

Tito wants a shot at Chuck's belt. Tito doesn't have a lot of time left in his career, a mistep here will hurt him badly. And, of course, Tito wants to shut Ken up.

Re: UFC UFN Thread
 

[ QUOTE ]
Also there's zero chance of a fix here.

Tito hates Ken way to much to lay down for him. Not to mention, it would screw up Dana's plans, and it would screw up Tito's plans.

Dana wants Liddell/Ortiz 2 to headline UFC 66 in December.

Tito wants a shot at Chuck's belt. Tito doesn't have a lot of time left in his career, a mistep here will hurt him badly. And, of course, Tito wants to shut Ken up.

[/ QUOTE ]

i agree, this fight is probably the closest thing to free money in the history of mma.

Re: UFC UFN Thread
 

a few reasons:

-this is the ultimate takedown championships, and im pretty confident that herman can put macdonald on his back while staying out of trouble often enough to get a points win.

-statistically, TUF peeps have an excellent record with their first UFN appearances.

-zuffa is looking to build herman up, not derail its investment. despite Godless Canuck Propoganda to the opposite, i do believe that macdonald is essentially a sacrificial lamb, albeit a dangerous one, and would be suprised not only in his aptitude if he wins, but also of zuffa's stupidity in overestimating herman's abilities with his first real public fight for zuffa.

Re: UFC UFN Thread
 

thanks for the replies, i do feel even better than i already did. still seeing -841 on pinny now, probably gonna take that, seems likely it will only go up at this point.

Re: UFC UFN Thread
 

That's definitely the most lopsided line I've seen in the UFC since I've been following it. The most lopsided line I can remember in any MMA fight is when Big Nog fought Zulu, which was around -1900 I think. Zulu v. Fedor might have been even steeper, but maybe not because he fought Fedor first before people knew how much Zulu sucks.

Re: UFC UFN Thread
 

[ QUOTE ]
That's definitely the most lopsided line I've seen in the UFC since I've been following it. The most lopsided line I can remember in any MMA fight is when Big Nog fought Zulu, which was around -1900 I think. Zulu v. Fedor might have been even steeper, but maybe not because he fought Fedor first before people knew how much Zulu sucks.

[/ QUOTE ]

What about Crocop/Minowa? What was that? I remember Rampage/Yoon being -1000 (clearly too high) Nog/Tamura -1500

Re: UFC UFN Thread
 

[ QUOTE ]

Different card, but I'd much rather bridge jump with Shawn Sherk at -321 ... I can't imagine Florian having a better chance vs Sherk than Shamrock does vs Ortiz.

[/ QUOTE ]

the more i think about it, the more i consider sherk something of a lock here.