Odds of Party collapsing on Saturday?
 

I had a little over 10k left in my Party account, just enough to get by until the 13th. After reading the Barron's article though, the idea of thousands of US customers cashing out in a panic suddenly, coupled with a poorly run company with relatively little forward vision got me nervous. I decided it was time to cash out.

Unfortunately, I planned on playing the final week and making what I could, but can't really swallow the idea of losing 10k right now. Fortunately, I have a good friend who is also a poker player who would probably agree to offer me insurance on my money in case something happened and I never saw a dime.

So we talked about what would be a fair price. After a bit of discussion, I thought 10% would be a good starting point and he thought 20% was about right. After discussing it a bit, we decided it was more than I feel like paying for the opportunity to play a week on Party, so we chalked it up to one of those interesting conversations that we've had over the course of our lives, and that was that.

Despite not coming to an agreement, I'm still curious what 2+2ers would put the line at. What would your price be? Or put another way, what do you think the chance is of Party being forced to stiff people because of lack of funds on Saturday?

Re: Odds of Party collapsing on Saturday?
 

I think Party pays you out 100%, so I would invest 0% (0$) as an insurance.

Come on it's a big company on the stock market and has lots of business going on in Europe. They are not getting broke...

Re: Odds of Party collapsing on Saturday?
 

PANIC!!

Re: Odds of Party collapsing on Saturday?
 

Your friend missed out on some easy money.

Re: Odds of Party collapsing on Saturday?
 

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Come on it's a big company on the stock market and has lots of business going on in Europe. They are not getting broke...

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Enron was worth billions, size doesn't always make your money safe. And being listed on the London Stock Exchange also doesn't guarantee liquidity in the case of a cashout panic.

Also, this isn't just a hypothetical, 80% of their customers WILL be pulling out every cent they have within the next week or so. Panic or no, people have no reason to leave money in their accounts.

Re: Odds of Party collapsing on Saturday?
 

80% of their customers will NOT be pulling out every cent. Just the paniced losers.

Re: Odds of Party collapsing on Saturday?
 

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80% of their customers will NOT be pulling out every cent. Just the paniced losers.

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Why would an American leave their money at Party if they were no longer able to play there?

It is a very logical assumption the bulk of the players will pull their money. Therefore, anyone with any significant amount of money may want to pull it now.

I say leave what you're willing to have tied up for quite some time, and possibly, but very slim possibility, not get it back.

To OP, only leave the minimum you need to play, cash out the rest.

Re: Odds of Party collapsing on Saturday?
 

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80% of their customers will NOT be pulling out every cent. Just the paniced losers.

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maybe i missed it somewhere but can someone post a link to where the breakdown of Party's customer base by continent is listed?

Re: Odds of Party collapsing on Saturday?
 

I agree Party won't fold, but why wouldn't an American cash out before Friday?

Re: Odds of Party collapsing on Saturday?
 

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80% of their customers will NOT be pulling out every cent. Just the paniced losers.

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maybe i missed it somewhere but can someone post a link to where the breakdown of Party's customer base by continent is listed?

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Party has said the US base was around 75% of their business.

There are so many articles claiming anywhere from 65-84% that there's no way to know the actually number, but somewhere around 75%.

Re: Odds of Party collapsing on Saturday?
 

panic= not a bad idea to invest ?? [img]/images/graemlins/smirk.gif[/img]

Re: Odds of Party collapsing on Saturday?
 

I agree I cashed out of Party. The Barrons' article isn't good news. Party has 84% of its customer base in the US. that leave them with 16%.

Why would any of us Americans leave money on the site that we can not use and have a possiblity to lose? Granted I had about $500 left on the site (only deposted $50 twice.. once after a bad atempt at Blackjack) the other $50 has been racked up well.
Party has been nice to me.. but I will go where we are welcomed. But i know some treaties between the US and the UK will cause partygaming to much risk.

Re: Odds of Party collapsing on Saturday?
 

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I agree Party won't fold, but why wouldn't an American cash out before Friday?

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Because they'd be losing money by playing in tighter games elsewhere.

Re: Odds of Party collapsing on Saturday?
 

I apologize. I was wrong. I thought US customers could continue to play, just no longer deposit.

I just reread Party's faq. All US based customers will be banned from playing. May as well take your money and run.

Re: Odds of Party collapsing on Saturday?
 

This is intresting.. as reported in barrons and other parts of this forum:

MORE TROUBLE COULD LIE ahead for PartyGaming. Gamblers anxious to clear out their accounts could cause a run on the bank. For according to the company's June 30, 2006, balance sheet, PartyGaming owes its clients $192.6 million in liabilities and prize pools, while having only $132.9 million in cash and cash equivalents to meet that obligation. And those cash holdings are likely to have fallen sharply, because of $130.5 million of cash spent on an acquisition in August. Meanwhile, The Financial Times reported the cancellation of a $500 million bank credit line that the company had made some use of. PartyGaming recently cancelled a $115 million special dividend to shore up its cash.

They may go belly up if every american cashes out.
but again if you have less than $50 you are SOL.

Re: Odds of Party collapsing on Saturday?
 

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80% of their customers will NOT be pulling out every cent. Just the paniced losers.

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maybe i missed it somewhere but can someone post a link to where the breakdown of Party's customer base by continent is listed?

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Party has said the US base was around 75% of their business.

There are so many articles claiming anywhere from 65-84% that there's no way to know the actually number, but somewhere around 75%.

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50% of customers producing 75% of revenue iirc.

Re: Odds of Party collapsing on Saturday?
 

200:1

Re: Odds of Party collapsing on Saturday?
 

If most Americans cashed out at this very moment, I would think it would just take Party time to settle everything.

No guarentees in life though.

Re: Odds of Party collapsing on Saturday?
 

25%

Re: Odds of Party collapsing on Saturday?
 

The Roof...

The Roof...

The Roof... is on FIRE!

Re: Odds of Party collapsing on Saturday?
 

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80% of their customers will NOT be pulling out every cent. Just the paniced losers.

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Why would an American leave their money at Party if they were no longer able to play there?





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A butt load of that 80 percent probably has no idea whats going on.

Re: Odds of Party collapsing on Saturday?
 

of course another possibility is that they offer a low % reload to non-americans on thursday/friday so they build up their cash on hand before the inevitable cash outs.

even if they dont, they still wont go belly up tho.

Re: Odds of Party collapsing on Saturday?
 

I would accept the 10% offer from you if I was your friend. I think it would be a fair deal for both parties. Even though I think PP will likely give your money back without any problems, however, no one could predict that if any accidents would happen or not next week. 10% will be about the right price on this matter IMO

Re: Odds of Party collapsing on Saturday?
 

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of course another possibility is that they offer a low % reload to non-americans on thursday/friday so they build up their cash on hand before the inevitable cash outs.

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5% reload up to a $1000 bonus!

Re: Odds of Party collapsing on Saturday?
 

It might be that a significant number of non-americans also trim their br waiting to see how it plays out.

Re: Odds of Party collapsing on Saturday?
 

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I think Party pays you out 100%, so I would invest 0% (0$) as an insurance.

Come on it's a big company until Oct. 14th

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Re: Odds of Party collapsing on Saturday?
 

True Party's losing around 75% of their base...But in a few weeks it will be more like 95% of their base...That's because all the action will be on other sites..All the big tounaments..All the loose American's...Everybody will follow the USAers to the other sites and Party will be very small..and don't think PP hasnt already figured this out...You're nuts to leave any money in Party..Even the rest of the world should cash out..It could be a total collapse..

Re: Odds of Party collapsing on Saturday?
 

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For according to the company's June 30, 2006, balance sheet, PartyGaming owes its clients $192.6 million in liabilities and prize pools, while having only $132.9 million in cash and cash equivalents to meet that obligation. And those cash holdings are likely to have fallen sharply, because of $130.5 million of cash spent on an acquisition in August.

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This really is kind of puzzling to me. Does anybody here have access to PartyGaming's Financial statements? If Party really has Player money in a segregated account then it should show up on the balance sheet and Barron's statement should prove to be bogus. But then what's up with Barron's? Are they unable to read a balance sheet? Are they deliberately not mentioning the Special segregated account? ie. Are they either incompetent or liars?

There is really no reason why we can't read the Party Financials for ourselves. Surely somebody around here is a Party Stockholder and has a copy.

PairTheBoard

Re: Odds of Party collapsing on Saturday?
 

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10k left in my Party account, just enough to get by until the 13th

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I rly want to know your sn... :drools:

Re: Odds of Party collapsing on Saturday?
 

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It might be that a significant number of non-americans also trim their br waiting to see how it plays out.

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I'm (UK) going to do this as soon as Americans are cut off, and play somewhere else until the situation is more clear. Too many non-Americans doing this could spell trouble, they need to keep player numbers as high as possible.

Could this also explain why they are still collecting for the Monster even though its being cancelled?

Re: Odds of Party collapsing on Saturday?
 

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of course another possibility is that they offer a low % reload to non-americans on thursday/friday so they build up their cash on hand before the inevitable cash outs.

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5% reload up to a $1000 bonus!

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Thursday, only 15X!!

Re: Odds of Party collapsing on Saturday?
 

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For according to the company's June 30, 2006, balance sheet, PartyGaming owes its clients $192.6 million in liabilities and prize pools, while having only $132.9 million in cash and cash equivalents to meet that obligation. And those cash holdings are likely to have fallen sharply, because of $130.5 million of cash spent on an acquisition in August.

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This really is kind of puzzling to me. Does anybody here have access to PartyGaming's Financial statements? If Party really has Player money in a segregated account then it should show up on the balance sheet and Barron's statement should prove to be bogus. But then what's up with Barron's? Are they unable to read a balance sheet? Are they deliberately not mentioning the Special segregated account? ie. Are they either incompetent or liars?

There is really no reason why we can't read the Party Financials for ourselves. Surely somebody around here is a Party Stockholder and has a copy.

PairTheBoard

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Read em for yourself: Party Gaming's 6/30/06 Interim F/S

Barron's analysis seems to be correct, as I assumed it would be.

What made you believe that they had player money in a segregated account, I don't see that.

FWIW, I am a CPA.

Less likely than the Antigua news conference Monday being snowed out
 

It is more likely that 4 feet of snow will force cancellation of the Monday new conference in Antigua than likely that Party will "collapse" on Saturday.

About as close to zero chance of either as you can get.

Re: Odds of Party collapsing on Saturday?
 

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What made you believe that they had player money in a segregated account, I don't see that.

FWIW, I am a CPA.

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Perhaps he confused Party with a responsible company like Stars.

Re: Odds of Party collapsing on Saturday?
 

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[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
For according to the company's June 30, 2006, balance sheet, PartyGaming owes its clients $192.6 million in liabilities and prize pools, while having only $132.9 million in cash and cash equivalents to meet that obligation. And those cash holdings are likely to have fallen sharply, because of $130.5 million of cash spent on an acquisition in August.

[/ QUOTE ]

This really is kind of puzzling to me. Does anybody here have access to PartyGaming's Financial statements? If Party really has Player money in a segregated account then it should show up on the balance sheet and Barron's statement should prove to be bogus. But then what's up with Barron's? Are they unable to read a balance sheet? Are they deliberately not mentioning the Special segregated account? ie. Are they either incompetent or liars?

There is really no reason why we can't read the Party Financials for ourselves. Surely somebody around here is a Party Stockholder and has a copy.

PairTheBoard

[/ QUOTE ]

Read em for yourself: Party Gaming's 6/30/06 Interim F/S

Barron's analysis seems to be correct, as I assumed it would be.

What made you believe that they had player money in a segregated account, I don't see that.

FWIW, I am a CPA.

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I don't recall what Party specifically has said about it, but we've heard from numerous sites that Player Money is kept in a seperate account - on deposit in banks for example.

They show $155 million in "Trade and other Recievables". What could Party possibly have in the way of Recievables to the tune of $155 million? Is it possible that this is the account line containing Player Monies?

Also, in the $192 million for "Client Liabilities and Prize Pools" could they be including all the "Guaranteed" type tournaments? For example, the Sunday Million Guaranteed may show as a $1 million current liability even though the $1 million always ends up being covered by player entry fees.

As a CPA, what's your take on this Tom? They will surely have around 75% of Player Accounts withdrawn after Saturday. If the Barron's analysis is correct they certainly don't appear to have the cash to cover those withdrawls. Should we be buying Puts on Party next week? Are you going to buy Puts on Party next week?

PairTheBoard

Re: Odds of Party collapsing on Saturday?
 

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A butt load of that 80 percent probably has no idea whats going on.

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That may be true, but they'll know soon enough when Party doesn't allow them to play anymore. Then they'll definitely be pulling their money off the site. As soon as that happens, there will be no US money left on Party.

I hope all the fish move to Stars and FTP. I like their software much better anyway.

Re: Odds of Party collapsing on Saturday?
 

imho, you have nothing to fear wrt your funds at party...

For those asking about Party's geographic revenue distribution, I posted Party's latest reported figures in the Barron's threads...

Re: Odds of Party collapsing on Saturday?
 

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A butt load of that 80 percent probably has no idea whats going on.

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That may be true, but they'll know soon enough when Party doesn't allow them to play anymore. Then they'll definitely be pulling their money off the site. As soon as that happens, there will be no US money left on Party.

I hope all the fish move to Stars and FTP. I like their software much better anyway.

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Unfortunately, Party will probably not go under. It would be better if they did.

A run on Party's cash deposits would be good for poker. It could push a few of those sites that are still on the fence to realize what the consequences of hasty action will be.

The legality of playing poker has not changed, after all.

Re: Less likely than the Antigua news conference Monday being snowed out
 

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It is more likely that 4 feet of snow will force cancellation of the Monday new conference in Antigua than likely that Party will "collapse" on Saturday.

About as close to zero chance of either as you can get.

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One of these has happened thousands of times.

The other has never happened in the history or recorded man.

So I think you are just a weeeee bit off in your comparison.

Re: Less likely than the Antigua news conference Monday being snowed out
 

Neither event has happened "thousands of times".

The first is a future event, will it snow 4 feet in Antigua on Monday ?

The other is a future event, the issue of a collapse of Party, on a specific date. (I did not say "never" collapse, I was addressing this to the time frame of this coming Saturday)

I have no stake in either event happening or not.