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-   -   Is 10/20 like 4x harder than it was 1-2 years ago? (http://archives1.twoplustwo.com/showthread.php?t=229864)

climber 10-06-2006 06:37 AM

Is 10/20 like 4x harder than it was 1-2 years ago?
 
I've def run bad in my last two shots at 10/20 6max.
-180BB in 3k hands.

2 years ago i beat this game for 2+ BB/100 and I'm a much better player now.

I'm crushing 5/10 but getting destroyed everytime I try to move up.

Comparing to 5/10 I feel like there are 1/3 to 1/4 as many decent tables to sit and there are 3-4 times as many players I dont want to play with. And the fish are like 3x better postflop. Some are still horrible but those are the 75/49 guys who river boats vs my nut flush and take down $400 pots with 42o raised UTG vs me. Obv that part is me running bad but I was wondering in general if I am missing something or if I'm deluding myself or if the gme has really gotten this much tougher?

kapw7 10-06-2006 08:10 AM

Re: Is 10/20 like 4x harder than it was 1-2 years ago?
 
Doesn't look that tough to me. FWIW I mainly play at Prima and Pty. OTOH I wasn't playing 10/20 1-2 years ago. I'm sure it used to be much softer then.

How did you adapt for the increased agressiveness? Stats etc.

Stefan_K 10-06-2006 08:18 AM

Re: Is 10/20 like 4x harder than it was 1-2 years ago?
 
The game gets togher and togher, comparing 1-2 years ago it's a diffrents. Absoultly possible to beat just work with table selection, also it's a good idee to look at other sites than just party.
When running bad all games are impossible to beat.

climber 10-06-2006 09:20 AM

Re: Is 10/20 like 4x harder than it was 1-2 years ago?
 
Stats wise I'm rasonable...30/20 80/50 blinds 40% steal
Could tighten up a little but given the ranges I'm mostly palying against it seems like I ought to be able to win like this too.

looks like I am peeling some flops a little too loosely
and bluffing a little too much on the turn

A big problem is this:

AA 71%
KK 64%
QQ 67%
JJ 60%
TT 47%

losing money UTG, on the button and at rates of .21 and .29 in the blinds doesnt make for winning sessions either.

disjunction 10-06-2006 10:32 AM

Re: Is 10/20 like 4x harder than it was 1-2 years ago?
 
My thesis, FWIW, has been that the Monster would make the games temporarily easier and long-term harder, and the effect would be more pronounced the lower you go.

I started playing 10/20 last November, and FWIW I don't think it's tougher than at any point since then, but it is tied for toughest. Plus there are some very strange lines being played in the last month or so. I've played lots of different limits in the last couple of months so maybe they're not strange lines, it's just me not adjusting.

My historical opinion on level of difficulty. Everything is relative to Party 10/20, of course (for any dork who comes in and says OMFG PARTY 10/20 IS EZ U PEOPLE CANT PLAY POSTFLOP)

November, December 2005 -- Easy
January-March 2006 -- Difficult
April 2006-July2006 -- Medium, trend getting easier
August 2006 -- Easy
Sept 2006 -- Medium to difficult, but mostly just weird

Magikist 10-06-2006 01:13 PM

Re: Is 10/20 like 4x harder than it was 1-2 years ago?
 
Climber, like you, I was 2+ bb/100 from about 6/2004 through 5/2005. Between 5/2005 and 9/2005 it was about 1-1.5 bb/100. I took a break from poker for a few months after that.

Came back in 2/2006 and was shocked at the difference. At the time I attributed the difficulty to rust, but now I don't think so. Like you, again, I consider myself a better poker player now. In my mind, there's no question that the games are significantly harder. I think the days of 2+ bb /100 over the medium- to long-term are gone for now. To grind out even just 1 BB/100 I think you need to be disciplined and patient.

I'm not sure the 10/20 is even a viable option for making a professional earn anymore (at least not what it once was).

boringchris 10-06-2006 01:17 PM

Re: Is 10/20 like 4x harder than it was 1-2 years ago?
 
i've only played 10/20 at party. does anyone here have extensive experience with the 10/20 games at sites that are still allowing US players (mostly absolute, ftp, stars, etc)? any insight on those sites?

GT123 10-06-2006 02:55 PM

Re: Is 10/20 like 4x harder than it was 1-2 years ago?
 
Limit games have been going downhil for awhile.

It's sick that you can easily make more in a low stakes 1/2 NL game on a $6000 bankroll, than in a mid-stakes 10/20 limit game with a $20,000 roll. Why do people still play 10/20 or lower. [img]/images/graemlins/confused.gif[/img]

Victor 10-06-2006 03:47 PM

Re: Is 10/20 like 4x harder than it was 1-2 years ago?
 
i dont think i can beat it anymore and in the process of trying nl.

CarpeDiem 10-06-2006 05:20 PM

Re: Is 10/20 like 4x harder than it was 1-2 years ago?
 
Couldn't this just be variance?

Victor 10-06-2006 06:29 PM

Re: Is 10/20 like 4x harder than it was 1-2 years ago?
 
[ QUOTE ]
Couldn't this just be variance?

[/ QUOTE ]

not sure if this is directed at me but in general but when poor results occur for long stretches or even multiple moderate stretches i think its important to recognize the significance. its easy to shrug things off to variance, and weight the good runs, and believe in your understanding bc you read a few books and made some posts but ultimately thats just a form of denial.

im sure rory will be here soon with some statement about mentality i wont understand or believe tho.

Keepitsimple 10-06-2006 06:46 PM

Re: Is 10/20 like 4x harder than it was 1-2 years ago?
 
good post Victor.

There are ways to beat the game though.

The players in holdem are imo divided into 2 classes.

The idiots and the not so dumb.

If you have an idiot at the table you cant lose. If you have a table with 5 not so dumb players its tought to know. --> Always play with idiots.

The Bryce 10-06-2006 07:16 PM

Re: Is 10/20 like 4x harder than it was 1-2 years ago?
 
[ QUOTE ]
If you have an idiot at the table you cant lose. If you have a table with 5 not so dumb players its tought to know. --> Always play with idiots.

[/ QUOTE ]

So true. Some people say I'm crazy when I mention that "meh, that table only had 1 50VPIPer at it," but there's a lot of interenet out there.

Victor! Tear to my eye! Good post. Have you maybe considered spending a few hours with Rory? I imagine you've got the bankroll to pay for it and I'm pretty sure that you know that personal psycology is the weak point in your career right now. I've only read snippets of his stuff, but the guy seems like he's the nuts (I'll probably be setting aside some money to talk to him myself for a couple hours in the next month or so).

To the OP:

Of course the middlish games are getting harder. They will continue to get harder as long as what's considered common poker knowledge moves closer and closer to correct game theory. Think of all the stuff we've smoothed out in the last year in this forum. No more people hyperventilating about protecting their hands, people not freaking out whenever somebody semi/pure-bluffs, an improved emphasis on hand reading etc.

Things like the 2+2 message boards, Stox videos, and the availability of lots of good blogs means that people are going to work their way up through the limits, learn this stuff, improve upon it, and leave a trail of even better material behind them. I call it the power creep, and it'll probably go on for quite a while yet. Luckily, all these resources are just as available to your serious player as your daily semi-fish, and it's not how well you play that matters, but how much better you play.

GemiNiveK 10-06-2006 07:57 PM

Re: Is 10/20 like 4x harder than it was 1-2 years ago?
 
You can crush the 10/20 5max at Ongame (PokerRoom) skins all day. Variance is high (20-22BB/100 std. dev.) and the rake sucks but the profit is worth it IMHO.

bugstud 10-06-2006 08:05 PM

Re: Is 10/20 like 4x harder than it was 1-2 years ago?
 
the quick answer is yes.

sweetjazz 10-06-2006 08:14 PM

Re: Is 10/20 like 4x harder than it was 1-2 years ago?
 
I don't think the 10/20 is *that* much harder from when I first started playing it, which was just over a year ago.

There is a slightly higher percentage of players who have good starting hand selection, there is a slightly higher percentage of players who are competent, or semi-competent, postflop. Moreover, these slight increases are compounded because the better players multitable. And the rake structure is worse, which definitely hurts the winrate.

All these things add up to make the game a bit tougher, but still very beatable.

admiralfluff 10-06-2006 08:16 PM

Re: Is 10/20 like 4x harder than it was 1-2 years ago?
 
It's also terrible *right* now. What's the deal with that?

NLSoldier 10-06-2006 08:27 PM

Re: Is 10/20 like 4x harder than it was 1-2 years ago?
 
OP: Yes.

augie_ 10-07-2006 12:35 AM

Re: Is 10/20 like 4x harder than it was 1-2 years ago?
 
there are plenty of good 10/20 6max games out there

Victor 10-07-2006 03:57 AM

Re: Is 10/20 like 4x harder than it was 1-2 years ago?
 
bryce, i disagree with just about everything in your post.

Victor 10-07-2006 04:26 AM

Re: Is 10/20 like 4x harder than it was 1-2 years ago?
 
ok sorry i just didnt like your first part. your last few points were spot on.

JohnnyHumongous 10-07-2006 06:00 AM

Re: Is 10/20 like 4x harder than it was 1-2 years ago?
 
I think for an experienced player the winrate at 5/10 or 10/20 should be the same as 0.5/1... call me crazy but I believe it. The reason 10/20 is harder than 0.5/1 when you first learn poker is because of the increased aggression and because you simply don't have enough experience to know what to do in certain situations. Once you get more experience you can outthink the other 10/20 players because you have learned how they think. With 0.5/1 players there is often no rhyme or reason to what they do so, while they of course make more mistakes, it is difficult to outplay anyone and really get true value. That is a tradeoff. 5/10 and 10/20 are just different than 0.5/1, not tougher per se. Basically if you have many 100's of thousands of hands and have read these boards for 2 years or whatever, you should be able to beat 10/20.

And don't forget the much better rake at 10/20.

Jstyal 10-07-2006 08:21 AM

Re: Is 10/20 like 4x harder than it was 1-2 years ago?
 
[ QUOTE ]
I think for an experienced player the winrate at 5/10 or 10/20 should be the same as 0.5/1... call me crazy but I believe it. The reason 10/20 is harder than 0.5/1 when you first learn poker is because of the increased aggression and because you simply don't have enough experience to know what to do in certain situations. Once you get more experience you can outthink the other 10/20 players because you have learned how they think. With 0.5/1 players there is often no rhyme or reason to what they do so, while they of course make more mistakes, it is difficult to outplay anyone and really get true value. That is a tradeoff. 5/10 and 10/20 are just different than 0.5/1, not tougher per se. Basically if you have many 100's of thousands of hands and have read these boards for 2 years or whatever, you should be able to beat 10/20.

And don't forget the much better rake at 10/20.

[/ QUOTE ]

I used to play .50/1 at party more than 3 yrs ago (and I have no reason to believe the landscape there has changed) so I speak with exp when I say I think you're crazy. heh. Anyone killing the .50/1 for say 4bb/100 is really killing them for about 9bb/100 given the rake penalty down there. That's a testament to just how bad the opposition is down there. Their gross preflop errors compounded by their utter lack of hand reading pre and post flop and their passivity makes them prime fodder. You cannot say the same for 10/20, where generally you find players a little better at hand reading, are way more aggressive (vs. .50/1), and overall players here seem to have some preflop stretagy vs .50/1 where no one has a semblance of a clue in that area. At .50/1 you dont have to play worth a damn postflop since only a good tight starting hand selection will get you $$$. Heck you don't even have to defend your blinds vs a blind steal. Just check your option when everyone limps in. But starting at around 10/20, you are forced to play postflop if you want to have a decent winrate. You are forced into stealing and defending your blinds; you are forced into dealing with tricky and aggro players; you are forced to deal with many more c/rs et. I don't think it's close.

kapw7 10-07-2006 09:00 AM

Re: Is 10/20 like 4x harder than it was 1-2 years ago?
 
I don't think JH wrote anything different than your long stating the obvious post.

kapw7 10-07-2006 09:11 AM

Re: Is 10/20 like 4x harder than it was 1-2 years ago?
 
I'll try to explain how I see it before I get flamed.
There are 2 categories of poker games. Where you play a boring mathematics based game and cash in from terrible opposition. The other category is where you need to play poker.
So 0.5/1 and 10/20 can be thought as the "easiest" games in their category. I don't know if the winrate will be the same and it doesn't really matter and noone will ever try to prove this in practice.

The general message is that 10/20 is the easiest game (ie decent winrate) for someone who plays "poker".

Jstyal 10-07-2006 12:33 PM

Re: Is 10/20 like 4x harder than it was 1-2 years ago?
 
Yeah. I may have misread his post. Still, "I think for an experienced player the winrate at 5/10 or 10/20 should be the same as 0.5/1..." beared repeating the "obvious."

climber 10-07-2006 12:49 PM

Re: Is 10/20 like 4x harder than it was 1-2 years ago?
 
[ QUOTE ]
The general message is that 10/20 is the easiest game (ie decent winrate) for someone who plays "poker".

[/ QUOTE ]

IMO this distinction would have to go to 5/10. More availalbe games, more horrible opponents, fish are not decent postflop, plus I can 5-7 table it pretty easily.

As I type this though I'm starting to think that anything I can 5-7 table easily maybe isn't in the "playing poker" category you refer to. But I guess I really dont care if its boring or math based I just play for $.

kapw7 10-07-2006 03:01 PM

Re: Is 10/20 like 4x harder than it was 1-2 years ago?
 
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
The general message is that 10/20 is the easiest game (ie decent winrate) for someone who plays "poker".

[/ QUOTE ]

IMO this distinction would have to go to 5/10. More availalbe games, more horrible opponents, fish are not decent postflop, plus I can 5-7 table it pretty easily.

As I type this though I'm starting to think that anything I can 5-7 table easily maybe isn't in the "playing poker" category you refer to. But I guess I really dont care if its boring or math based I just play for $.

[/ QUOTE ]

That's what I meant. A mechanical solid playing style can beat 5/10 but not 10/20 anymore. At least not that easy (not as easy as it used to be)

mscags 10-07-2006 06:24 PM

Re: Is 10/20 like 4x harder than it was 1-2 years ago?
 
I've been playing for a few hours today and for the most part the games have been absolutely terrible, I dropped down to play some 5-10 because they wre so bad.

milesdyson 10-07-2006 06:33 PM

Re: Is 10/20 like 4x harder than it was 1-2 years ago?
 
is everyone not mentioning sites for a reason? we're just talking 10/20 in general or what?

mscags 10-07-2006 06:35 PM

Re: Is 10/20 like 4x harder than it was 1-2 years ago?
 
[ QUOTE ]
is everyone not mentioning sites for a reason? we're just talking 10/20 in general or what?

[/ QUOTE ]

Sorry I just assumed we were talking about Party, thats where I was

wdcbooks 10-07-2006 08:20 PM

Re: Is 10/20 like 4x harder than it was 1-2 years ago?
 
I was a regular at Party 10/20 a couple of years ago and was a decent winner, running at over 2bb for 100k hands. I went on a downswing that wasn't a big deal and started playing at Absolute and Eurobet for rakeback.

Either the play has steadily gotten better or I have become steadily worse. I can make much more by six tabling $109 sit and gos, and by playing 2/4 NL. I have given up. The curious thing is that the best players, like Dave_Wilkes and Victor have moved on to higher limits. It is the run of the mill players I am not beating.

Scary_Tiger 10-07-2006 08:22 PM

Re: Is 10/20 like 4x harder than it was 1-2 years ago?
 
[ QUOTE ]
I was a regular at Party 10/20 a couple of years ago and was a decent winner, running at over 2bb for 100k hands. I went on a downswing that wasn't a big deal and started playing at Absolute and Eurobet for rakeback.

Either the play has steadily gotten better or I have become steadily worse. I can make much more by six tabling $109 sit and gos, and by playing 2/4 NL. I have given up. The curious thing is that the best players, like Dave_Wilkes and Victor have moved on to higher limits. It is the run of the mill players I am not beating.

[/ QUOTE ]

Hmm...

veganmav 10-07-2006 08:51 PM

Re: Is 10/20 like 4x harder than it was 1-2 years ago?
 
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
I was a regular at Party 10/20 a couple of years ago and was a decent winner, running at over 2bb for 100k hands. I went on a downswing that wasn't a big deal and started playing at Absolute and Eurobet for rakeback.

Either the play has steadily gotten better or I have become steadily worse. I can make much more by six tabling $109 sit and gos, and by playing 2/4 NL. I have given up. The curious thing is that the best players, like Dave_Wilkes and Victor have moved on to higher limits. It is the run of the mill players I am not beating.

[/ QUOTE ]

Hmm...

[/ QUOTE ]

lol

Victor 10-07-2006 10:57 PM

Re: Is 10/20 like 4x harder than it was 1-2 years ago?
 
scary tiger you are easily the worst player that posted in this thread.

shockdaworld 10-07-2006 11:25 PM

Re: Is 10/20 like 4x harder than it was 1-2 years ago?
 
[ QUOTE ]
scary tiger you are easily the worst player that posted in this thread.

[/ QUOTE ]

wrong

climber 10-08-2006 12:03 AM

Re: Is 10/20 like 4x harder than it was 1-2 years ago?
 
nice trash talking we are getting going...

yes I was talking about the Party 10/20.

i played a short session today and I think the game is still plenty soft if you are fine with actually doing a little table selection and playing poker.

it does seem that it is no longer possible to just fire up 4-6 tables and start raising and turn a nice profit like you used to be able to do. seems like profiting in these games will have to involve playing some poker. doh!

and yes i agree there are lots of other better 10/20 games out there than Party.

Bill King 10-08-2006 10:01 AM

Re: Is 10/20 like 4x harder than it was 1-2 years ago?
 
[ QUOTE ]
scary tiger you are easily the worst player that posted in this thread.

[/ QUOTE ]

that was true until i just posted refuting that response [img]/images/graemlins/grin.gif[/img]

trickymartin 10-08-2006 02:16 PM

Re: Is 10/20 like 4x harder than it was 1-2 years ago?
 
I started playing 10/20 about a year ago and ran at about 1.3BB/100 back then. I have improved a little and now I've running at 1.88BB/100 over 250k this year. I would say games are definitely beatable for decent hourly rate, but they have been getting tougher.

augie_ 10-08-2006 03:16 PM

Re: Is 10/20 like 4x harder than it was 1-2 years ago?
 
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
scary tiger you are easily the worst player that posted in this thread.

[/ QUOTE ]

wrong

[/ QUOTE ]

everyone knows the worst is me, they just don't say it out loud because they dont want me to quit playing


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