Baseball situation question - 2nd base nobody out vs 3rd base one out?
 

This question came up today: Would you rather have a man on second with nobody out or a man on third with one out? I have a definite opinion, but others are demanding stats to back up my position. So here's the poll, and any resources to prove your side would be appreciated.

Re: Baseball situation question - 2nd base nobody out vs 3rd base one
 

It depends.

Re: Baseball situation question - 2nd base nobody out vs 3rd base one out?
 

Based on the information provided, I'd say A is the correct answer, because outs are scarce and yada yada. However, I think it depends a lot on other factors (score, inning, who's batting, on deck, etc.), and therefore B might be the better situation to have sometimes.

Re: Baseball situation question - 2nd base nobody out vs 3rd base one
 

B is very rarely better, not to mention that a sacrifice doesn't work 100% of the time.

Re: Baseball situation question - 2nd base nobody out vs 3rd base one
 

It does depend, to some extent on the batter (and the speed of the runner), but in general, do you think it is a good play to sac bunt with nobody out and a runner on second?

Re: Baseball situation question - 2nd base nobody out vs 3rd base one
 

no.

Re: Baseball situation question - 2nd base nobody out vs 3rd base one
 

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It does depend, to some extent on the batter (and the speed of the runner), but in general, do you think it is a good play to sac bunt with nobody out and a runner on second?

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No.

Re: Baseball situation question - 2nd base nobody out vs 3rd base one
 

Not enough information - what's the score, inning, what side of the plate does the batter hit from, how successful is the batter at laying down a sac bunt, etc.

Re: Baseball situation question - 2nd base nobody out vs 3rd base one
 

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It does depend, to some extent on the batter (and the speed of the runner), but in general, do you think it is a good play to sac bunt with nobody out and a runner on second?

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This isn't what I was referring to when I said it depends.

Unless you are very late in the game and tied(and sometimes down by 1), it is nearly always a horrible play sac bunting.

Re: Baseball situation question - 2nd base nobody out vs 3rd base one
 

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It does depend, to some extent on the batter (and the speed of the runner), but in general, do you think it is a good play to sac bunt with nobody out and a runner on second?

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This isn't what I was referring to when I said it depends.

Unless you are very late in the game and tied(and sometimes down by 1), it is nearly always a horrible play sac bunting.

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I disagree. Maybe the best way of framing the question is - In which situation are you more likely to score?

I think you are more likely to score from second with no outs, so even in the bottom of the ninth, down by one, bunting is a generally bad play.

Re: Baseball situation question - 2nd base nobody out vs 3rd base one
 

About .2 runs per average in favor of situation A.

Re: Baseball situation question - 2nd base nobody out vs 3rd base one
 

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It does depend, to some extent on the batter (and the speed of the runner), but in general, do you think it is a good play to sac bunt with nobody out and a runner on second?

[/ QUOTE ]

This isn't what I was referring to when I said it depends.

Unless you are very late in the game and tied(and sometimes down by 1), it is nearly always a horrible play sac bunting.

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I disagree. Maybe the best way of framing the question is - In which situation are you more likely to score?

I think you are more likely to score from second with no outs, so even in the bottom of the ninth, down by one, bunting is a generally bad play.

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I would bunt when it is tied, but not when down one.

Re: Baseball situation question - 2nd base nobody out vs 3rd base one
 

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About .2 runs per average in favor of situation A.

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Where's your data from?

Re: Baseball situation question - 2nd base nobody out vs 3rd base one
 

Run expectancy chart from the book. It's 1999-2002 data.

Re: Baseball situation question - 2nd base nobody out vs 3rd base one
 

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It does depend, to some extent on the batter (and the speed of the runner), but in general, do you think it is a good play to sac bunt with nobody out and a runner on second?

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Absolutely not.

I remember reading somewhere that given the choice between

(A) a guaranteed successful sacrifice (where the runner moves one base and the batter is out), and
(B) a normal sacrifice attempt like teams do now (where you may fail, but you may get a hit after the bunt is off with two strikes)

that option B is better, and it isn't close.

Re: Baseball situation question - 2nd base nobody out vs 3rd base one
 

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It does depend, to some extent on the batter (and the speed of the runner), but in general, do you think it is a good play to sac bunt with nobody out and a runner on second?

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No.

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the probability for just one run changes enough for the situation to matter, as everyone else in the thread has noted.

Re: Baseball situation question - 2nd base nobody out vs 3rd base one
 

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
It does depend, to some extent on the batter (and the speed of the runner), but in general, do you think it is a good play to sac bunt with nobody out and a runner on second?

[/ QUOTE ]

This isn't what I was referring to when I said it depends.

Unless you are very late in the game and tied(and sometimes down by 1), it is nearly always a horrible play sac bunting.

[/ QUOTE ]

I disagree. Maybe the best way of framing the question is - In which situation are you more likely to score?

I think you are more likely to score from second with no outs, so even in the bottom of the ninth, down by one, bunting is a generally bad play.

[/ QUOTE ]

The value in 2nd no out comes from the potential for a big inning. With a "normal" batter, you are more likely to score with a runner at third and one out.

Re: Baseball situation question - 2nd base nobody out vs 3rd base one
 

well jeter bunts runners over to third all the time and he wouldn't ever do anything that hurts his team's chances of winning, regardless of what nerds on the internet say.

Re: Baseball situation question - 2nd base nobody out vs 3rd base one out?
 

It depends, but in most of the cases I will take option A.

Re: Baseball situation question - 2nd base nobody out vs 3rd base one out?
 

I'd probably go for A, but I think it would depend on serveral factors. Two that come to mind are whether you are facing a ground-out type pitcher, and who the two/three guys coming up in the line-up are.

If I have a left-handed batter coming up against a right handed pitcher, for example, I might be more inclined to take situation B. Lots of other factors though.

Tough one to anser unless you are a coach and no your players strength, speed of runner, etc.

Re: Baseball situation question - 2nd base nobody out vs 3rd base one
 

It depends on whether I'm trying to maximize the probability of getting at least one run or trying to maximize the average number of runs scored. This completely depends on the exact situation. Tied up, bottom 9, bunting the runner to 3rd is better. Otherwise, I'm pretty sure not sacrificing is best.

Re: Baseball situation question - 2nd base nobody out vs 3rd base one
 

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well jeter bunts runners over to third all the time and he wouldn't ever do anything that hurts his team's chances of winning, regardless of what nerds on the internet say.

[/ QUOTE ] Right; Jeter is a winning player winner who wins winningly win night long, win. Even his errors and GIDPs help his team win, he wouldn't make an error if it hurt his team.

Seriously, this reminds me of a good point; sometimes the runner beats out the bunt attempt or an error allows him to reach base. When the probability of these two things are high, and the probability of the bunt failing miserably (e.g. doesn't advance runner, runner thrown out at third) is low, the bunt can have a positive expectation in terms of expected runs scored. Extremely rare situation.

Re: Baseball situation question - 2nd base nobody out vs 3rd base one
 

this exact scenerio is outlined in BP's book.

it completely depends on what you are hoping to accomplish. trying to maximize your runs or maximize your chances of scoring one run.

bottom of a the 9th in a tie game, depending on who the batter is and who would be the next batter(s), bunting is a little better.

Re: Baseball situation question - 2nd base nobody out vs 3rd base one
 

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this exact scenerio is outlined in BP's book.

it completely depends on what you are hoping to accomplish. trying to maximize your runs or maximize your chances of scoring one run.

bottom of a the 9th in a tie game, depending on who the batter is and who would be the next batter(s), bunting is a little better.

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The thing is, of course, that sacrifice bunting is never 100% successful.

I think you could never bunt ever, and it not be a mistake.

Re: Baseball situation question - 2nd base nobody out vs 3rd base one
 

I'm a big fan of the try for a base hit bunt with a runner on second and nobody out. Provided Cecil Fielder isn't the batter of course.

Re: Baseball situation question - 2nd base nobody out vs 3rd base one
 

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I think you could never bunt ever, and it not be a mistake.


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I remember a playoff game a few years back. The Red Sox were up two in the bottom of the eight and got runners on first and second with nobody out. I think Bellhorn was the batter, but it might have been Mueller. Of course they didn't bunt, and I was pulling my hair out. It was very clearly wrong not to bunt in that situation. If they had a one run lead, it would have been even more wrong. If they were tied, the manager should be fired for not bunting.

Re: Baseball situation question - 2nd base nobody out vs 3rd base one
 

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It was very clearly wrong not to bunt in that situation.

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It doesn't seem "very clearly wrong" to me.

I'm not saying that they shouldn't have bunted, but I don't think it's a super-obvious bunt situation.

Re: Baseball situation question - 2nd base nobody out vs 3rd base one
 

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It was very clearly wrong not to bunt in that situation.

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It doesn't seem "very clearly wrong" to me.

I'm not saying that they shouldn't have bunted, but I don't think it's a super-obvious bunt situation.

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What is an example of a obvious bunt situation? are there a lot or is bunting not as useful as it seems?

Re: Baseball situation question - 2nd base nobody out vs 3rd base one out?
 

It's 100% B. When teams have a man on 2nd and no outs, they will 100% accept a sacrifice, either through bunt or fly, to get the runner to 3rd. Since teams would always take this sacrifice, B is clearly better for the hitting team.

Re: Baseball situation question - 2nd base nobody out vs 3rd base one
 

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It's 100% B. When teams have a man on 2nd and no outs, they will 100% accept a sacrifice, either through bunt or fly, to get the runner to 3rd. Since teams would always take this sacrifice, B is clearly better for the hitting team.

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you're taking the word of a group of people which includes dusty baker?

if you asked a manager during the 1920s who the best player in baseball was, he absolutely would have said ty cobb. he would have been wrong. managers are not the smartest people in the world.

Re: Baseball situation question - 2nd base nobody out vs 3rd base one
 

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
this exact scenerio is outlined in BP's book.

it completely depends on what you are hoping to accomplish. trying to maximize your runs or maximize your chances of scoring one run.

bottom of a the 9th in a tie game, depending on who the batter is and who would be the next batter(s), bunting is a little better.

[/ QUOTE ]

The thing is, of course, that sacrifice bunting is never 100% successful.

I think you could never bunt ever, and it not be a mistake.

[/ QUOTE ]

You're going to have to bunt some of the time, for game theory reasons. Sometimes bad bunts became better bunts if the third-basemen can't play the bunt well, or if he's not expecting it at all.

Re: Baseball situation question - 2nd base nobody out vs 3rd base one out?
 

Without reading any responses, I think the answer is pretty obviously a man on 2nd with nobody out. If it were "better" to have a guy on 3rd with 1 out, every team would be bunting the guy to third every time.

Re: Baseball situation question - 2nd base nobody out vs 3rd base one
 

If you mindlessly look at overall stats, trading an out for 90 feet is a bad trade. Outs are precious, and if your on-deck batter hits a single, you've pretty much just wasted an out.

However, taking the bunt can be right if certain factors are in play. If the batter tends to hit the ball to the left side of the diamond, a ground ball out will fail to advance the runner, so you may be better off bunting. If it's a flyball pitcher, you're far more inclined to take the bunt to get the runner into position to score. If the on-deck man is an impatient hitter, you probably don't want to bunt. And so forth. Many managers have both the data and instinct to take these factors into account.

Re: Baseball situation question - 2nd base nobody out vs 3rd base one
 

Hmmm, this just happened in the Twins playoff game. Torii Hunter bunted with a runner on 2nd and no outs. It resulted in a runner on 3rd with 1 out.

Re: Baseball situation question - 2nd base nobody out vs 3rd base one out?
 

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Without reading any responses, I think the answer is pretty obviously a man on 2nd with nobody out. If it were "better" to have a guy on 3rd with 1 out, every team would be bunting the guy to third every time.

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I think this logic is flawed. I think if a team knew that bunting was 100% successful, they would do it. That's why I think man on 3rd with 1 out is better.

Re: Baseball situation question - 2nd base nobody out vs 3rd base one
 

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Hmmm, this just happened in the Twins playoff game. Torii Hunter bunted with a runner on 2nd and no outs. It resulted in a runner on 3rd with 1 out.

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I was just going to mention this. This seems like an absolutely horrible spot to bunt in. The leadoff double was the third! hit by minnesota in the first two innings. Absolutely awful. Even moreso b/c Hunter is a good hitter who hasn't laid down a sac bunt all season. Twins are in pure panic mode.



results for those not watching: no runs for Minnesota

Re: Baseball situation question - 2nd base nobody out vs 3rd base one
 

Well, Torii Hunter being a good hitter is up for debate, but yeah that is a pretty bad spot to do it in.

Re: Baseball situation question - 2nd base nobody out vs 3rd base one
 

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Well, Torii Hunter being a good hitter is up for debate, but yeah that is a pretty bad spot to do it in.

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c'mon dude, he went .278/31/98 this year with nobody hitting behind him. He consistently puts up .270-.280 25-30 90-100 type seasons. He's clearly a "good" hitter. I didn't call him a HOFer or anything.

Re: Baseball situation question - 2nd base nobody out vs 3rd base one
 

Augie Garrido, the Texas baseball coach who has won more games than any other college coach, bunts a lot. I mean, a lot.

If he gets the leadoff man on in an inning, he's probably going to bunt.

If he gets men on 1st and 2nd with nobody out, he has said he would bunt if Babe Ruth was the batter.

I bet he would want 3rd base, 1 out more often than not.

I realize this is not conventional wisdom in the majors, but this man's won an awful lot of games.

I think it depends on who the batter is and how many runs you need.

Re: Baseball situation question - 2nd base nobody out vs 3rd base one
 

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Well, Torii Hunter being a good hitter is up for debate, but yeah that is a pretty bad spot to do it in.

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c'mon dude, he went .278/31/98 this year with nobody hitting behind him. He consistently puts up .270-.280 25-30 90-100 type seasons. He's clearly a "good" hitter. I didn't call him a HOFer or anything.

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Career OPS+ of 102.

So not a good hitter.
Though considering he is a very good CF'er, he is a very good player.